Jim Willie's latest - The Silver Platter Opportunity

ksammut

As always, a very good read.

The Silver Platter Opportunity

jmski52

I just read another analysis that included the same cot chart. It will be interesting to see how things proceed from here.

I don't think I've ever been aware of so many potential black swan events in the offing all at one time. Gadzooks.

MilesWaits

I am particularly struck by two quotes from Willie's articulations:

The US states are falling like flies in the summer heat, trapped inside window frames. Their extraordinary measures to avoid default have become almost a tragic comedy. Talk has come of splitting California into two states, of silicon and latin stripes. Illinois and New Jersey are basket cases. Wisconsin is a war zone.

and:

Money faces ruin, as Gold & Silver offer preservation and growth during the greatest transfer of wealth in over a century. Recall the barons who exploited the Great Depression, whose names are part of the elite landscape of banking and politics and philanthropy.


Sign me up for Silver Barron-Hood and endless days of surfing in what is left of Cali. Or the Golden State; either way.

Miles

Justacommeman

I agree Miles. The system is set up so it's better and actually honorable to be the Baron as opposed to the one being robbed. MJ

mhammerman

Very good read. Of course, he is beating his drum but he is tapping out a sensible melody. Hard to not agree with his analysis that the tbtf's are just an acronym for nobody can do anything about them. The fed gov seems hapless and fecklessly flailing at what if's while they make sure the money boys that they have all worked with or gone to school with are safe and taken care of; you gotta take care of family first.

The most interesting thought that comes after reading his article is that in previous presidential administrations, it seemed there was a plan and people could agree or disagree with it, use it for political fodder during elections or at the least, the plan could be tallied as working or not working. The Great Society of LBJ, JFK's New Frontier, even FDR's Fireside Chats are hardwired into the American psyche and people could agree with them or not but at the least, there was a plan.

Now, there seems to be no plan, no strategy other than measuring the media coverage that a statement by a Pleosi or someone of that ilk can generate for the party administration. The formula has become too simple, just mention "for the children" in the first paragraph and the media is all over it; it'll be tomorrow's headlines but you can surely bet the farm that the children have nothing to do with it. The alternative headline is that somehow the American people must have "shared sacrifice", the only problem with that is that there are very few that actually are doing the sacrifice and most of those are out humpin' cube farms, or wearing a uniform; the rest of them are just reading the headlines and goin' "Yeah!". Schadenfreude has evolved into a national passtime.

The US is still the strongest economy, the USD is still the most trusted, the military is still the mightiest but somehow, it seems that what we see now is a hollowed out replica of some past icon that is hardwired into our cultural symbol lexicon. We all know JW is right and we know that only gold is money, get'cha some.

Get CASH

streeter

Part of what I observe is that we--U.S.--are possibly at the depths of this current recession and bad news is over amplified. Just like it has been in past recessions. Only this downturn is unlike one any of us have ever felt.

Everything is relative in this world. Russia cannot sustain her population, Europe is not as rosey as the Euro would indicate and China has more structural problems than Carter had pills. China, FYI, is having civil unrest right now..not as rosey of a picture as the Chicoms would like the world to believe---100 million vacant housing units, 400 million citizens who have never seen a physician, a country with no elder medical care and no income safety net, a country aging rapidly and a country with an 8-10% growth rate that is equal to their GDP that specializes in counterfeit goods. Brazil's bubble may be about to pop. INDIA?--geesh, would you ever want to move there?--------------------The U.S. is not as bad off as many would have you believe---but this isn't the 50's or 60's and the rules have changed.

There are a lot of assets out there going begging right now because some owners do not have the wherewithall to support them. I'm talking about a company with tired paralyzed ownership that has non income producing assets that the owners are not able to put to use. Analogous to a stacker with AGEs and ASEs who can't bring himself to part with a few in order to make the house payment and car payment. I'm watching two multi-million dollar businesses in So Cal right now where the owners have completely boggelled them up the last 5 years and soon will be forced to sell.

Asset based businesses with insufficient cash flow and income producing under valued real estate seem like winners to me right now. Neither one are for passive investors. The key is in owning the land underneath the assets. They don't call it LAND-LORD for nothing.

57loaded

Miles...i'll bring the beer, unless MJ (TMIMITW) comes and is thirsty.


kasmmut, thanks for continuing to post JW's latest

MilesWaits

<< <i>Miles...i'll bring the beer, unless MJ (TMIMITW) comes and is thirsty.


kasmmut, thanks for continuing to post JW's latest
>>



Surf is up then!! And MJ does know how, so not too much beer, maybe a bit more gin is in order to temper the giddy side effects of nirvana!

Miles

ksammut

<< <i>Miles...i'll bring the beer, unless MJ (TMIMITW) comes and is thirsty.


kasmmut, thanks for continuing to post JW's latest
>>



My pleasure. He is a correct a lot more than he is wrong and occasionally he beats up on people I like but I sincerely believe he is one of the few who really sees what is going on.

Ken

roadrunner

I wonder if Willie's silver platter opportunity (ie silver COT short ratio at a very low 1.8) may have been helped by JPM shutting down some Comex trading desks and moving operations
to other areas of the silver market where they could do just as much good damage, but with less scrutiny from the CFTC? Note that gold's COT commercial short to long ratio didn't fall below 2 even though it has historically been as low as 1.65 and as high as 4.5. These past 2-1/2 yrs it looks like gold's ratio has become contained in a range of 2-3. It may be that the boyz are tiring of these games and finding other ways to inflict their will (otc derivatives, shorting SLV or GLD, overseas trading desks). I believe it was Ted Butler who had an article this week about the huge rise in short interest on SLV over many months....and now around 10-12%. The CFTC can't say anything about that. Would be interesting to see if that rise coincided with JPM recently winding down some it's Comex silver trading.

So while that 1.8 silver ratio is significant, and probably a sign of a strong bottom, it may be that JPM and Co. leaving town may have helped send it below 2.0.

roadrunner

7over8

Silver is having serious trouble breaching $38-$39 level lately, since the fall from grace at $49

My opinion is we will see low $30's or high $20's before we see the $40's again......

The general public is scared away after that 30% drop in a week, the average guy at the coin show is thinking twice about jumping in now.....

OnlyGoldIsMoney

<< <i>Silver is having serious trouble breaching $38-$39 level lately, since the fall from grace at $49

My opinion is we will see low $30's or high $20's before we see the $40's again......

The general public is scared away after that 30% drop in a week, the average guy at the coin show is thinking twice about jumping in now..... >>




The average guy will jump in when the price of silver is back above $40. Such buyers have had multiple chances to buy at $33 but won't.

tincup

<< <i>Silver is having serious trouble breaching $38-$39 level lately, since the fall from grace at $49

My opinion is we will see low $30's or high $20's before we see the $40's again......

The general public is scared away after that 30% drop in a week, the average guy at the coin show is thinking twice about jumping in now..... >>






Summer doldrums may be playing a part in this. The last couple of years, summer time did not seem to slow the price increase much at all. This summer seems to be a return to the more typical slowdown in activity and prices. I do not think it is a problem for the metals, and believe the volatility will return in a few mor weeks. The metals have quite a ways to go yet.

jmski52

It blows me away when people approach silver investing with such a hot or cold mentality. For every hot-shot who thinks he can out-guess the silver market and come away with a double in 2 days' worth of involvement - there is another one who recognizes what a silver position actually means and is willing to use the stuff as a method of accumulating real wealth.

Buy it low, sell it high. Whatever. Might as well be soybean futures. No biggie. And good luck beating the big boys with their flash trading machines and lack of rules, ethics or any other boundaries.

7over8

jmski52

totally agree with your comments. whatever price silver is "undervalued" buy strong, "overvalued" sell strong.

however, for the guy who doesnt follow it so closely, the public, who started to go in heavy at 40+ all the way up to 49

got the shock of their lives.....30% down....in a couple days......

that scares people away, it scares them for a while, especially when the media plays it up with comments like "we told you silver was in a bubble", "you could endure huge losses in silver and gold", etc.

I do not think we are going to breach $40 for a while, eventually it will, but not this summer......