Some major agricultural commodity charts.
cohodk
Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
0
cohodk
Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
So what are the units for this stuff?
Corn for instance. Is that cents per bushel, dollars per ton or what?
Got quoins?
<< <i>Gold and silver I know.
So what are the units for this stuff?
Corn for instance. Is that cents per bushel, dollars per ton or what? >>
The price of corn is quoted in cents per bushel. The chart would read as closing at 703c per bushel or $7.03.
The actual price really isnt as important as the direction of the prices.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give the bankers trillions in slush/hush money to play with, and higher commodity prices should have been expected.....and now dissipating.
roadrunner
and import rice :0
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
and why not they make almost everything outa corn these days and
who's gonna give up there coffee.
Goes to show ya how all these commodity's run in packs.
Steve
<< <i>Even I can see a inflationary trend there, corn & coffee holding well,
and why not they make almost everything outa corn these days and
who's gonna give up there coffee.
Goes to show ya how all these commodity's run in packs.
Steve >>
Are these prices going higher? Have they gone higher? Which way do they go next?
As roadrunner mentioned, the longer term charts--3 to 5 years--show prices are roughly the same.
This country needs inflation BADLY, but it so far its been difficult to acheive on a sustainable basis.
Lucky for the US, the world is getting hungrier and more dependant on the American farmer to feed them.
I dont think one should conclude that loose monetary policy is the reason for food price increases.
We will revisit these charts in 6 months to show relevance.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Comparing commodity prices trend. Gold & Silver are commodities. >>
This is a precious metals form, not a commodities forum. In the original post there was no commentary or comparison to other commodities.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
You can go back 5-8 yrs on some of these weekly charts. Just click on them.
My favorite is the corn chart. Has a projected target of 1300 (+80%) over the next couple of years.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Wheat down 7% today. Hit a low of 617--an 11 month low. Corn down 4% to 675. >>
Corn has a lot of work to do while tacking on a handle to that 3 yr cup formation. Should head right to 600, and possibly even lower. Might take 6 months to add the handle.
Wheat's a tougher call, maybe 600 for support.
Gap in oil at $88-$90 is still the beacon. Reasonable chance that gets filled this summer.
roadrunner
<< <i>Longer term grain and commodity charts
You can go back 5-8 yrs on some of these weekly charts. Just click on them.
My favorite is the corn chart. Has a projected target of 1300 (+80%) over the next couple of years.
roadrunner >>
Thanks for the link. I see that corn chart. Looks bullish, as do most of the grains. It appears to me that we're in a sustained long term uptrend in many of these commodities. I'm not crazy about buying the exchanged traded funds...as there's a concern about contagion....USO is an example of the divergence between the cash crude market and the USO fund. Not sure how to play these. Any suggestions? I do own some stocks in fertilizer cos like POT and CF.
Wheat closed today at 581 (down 13%). Corn at 631 (down 10%). Oats at 334 (down 7.5%).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
They've been correcting for 5 months now....all except corn which managed to peak in the past month. But now it has to tack on a long handle to that 3 yr cup.
Most of the other grains appear to be in their C leg down. Suspect they will bottom in July or August along with PM's. Then push back up in the fall.
Gold and silver pulled back sharply in 2008, but it wasn't the end of their runs. Anyone looking at those charts in September of 2008 would have said they were
finished. Grains are following a similar tortuous path. Don't worry about corn as it's far from finished. It will be back in several years to test that 13 level.
It seemed apparent a few months ago that 600 was in the cards just to reach the first inner cup neckline. And the deep dip to 600 in March was giving the signal of things to come.
And from here 550-575 seems doable which is a slanting neckline from the next lower cup through key support points. 500 seems to be about the worst case scenario
where any lower suggests the "handle" theory is out the window. I'm not going to judge commodities (or inflation) on where things are today, but on where they've been over
the past 5-10 yrs.
roadrunner
I agree 100%, and is exactly why often mention the price of grains (and other things) today being the same as in 2007. Even the price of copper is the same as in 2006--this with the FED printing trillions.
My question is, "why arent prices higher?"
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>My favorite is the corn chart. Has a projected target of 1300 (+80%) over the next couple of years.
roadrunner >>
Yes, and as Third world countries pay more for basic food needs, unrest develops. Unrest develops, and the general direction of all commodities, including PM's, will be up.
Commodity brokers and speculators are responsible for some of the food difficulties facing less developed nations.
<< <i>Yes, and as Third world countries pay more for basic food needs, unrest develops. Unrest develops, and the general direction of all commodities, including PM's, will be up.
Commodity brokers and speculators are responsible for some of the food difficulties facing less developed nations. >>
Corn is only my "favorite" chart only because of the huge classic cup formation it has put in over 3 yrs...not because of all the difficulties that will arise to feed the world.
Speculators are part of the problem, no doubt. But they are merely the tail wagging the dog. Who gave the speculators and commercials the free reign to be able to speculate
w/o limitation in the marketplace and who has provided the easy money to them to perpetuate it? Those guys are only speculating with the tools and supplies given to them by
the FED, Treasury, politicians, regulators...as well as the people who keep electing them. How can our top 25 banks hold $321 TRILL in reported derivatives? Why do your banks
need to hold a $200 BILL position in gold derivatives? What do speculators and large funds do to survive in an environment of rigged interest rates, TRILLIONs in "free" digidollars,
along with a constantly weakening dollar? They are just doing what they are allowed to do. The fact that the corn chart is pointing at $13 is the tail of the dog pointing at the policies
of the past 30 yrs that got it to that point. Unrest is coming to most western industrialized nations. We'd all better get used to it.
The speculators at both ends are more than happy to incinerate the world as long as their way of life and family is untouched. They just don't care about anyone else.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>Yes, and as Third world countries pay more for basic food needs, unrest develops. Unrest develops, and the general direction of all commodities, including PM's, will be up.
Commodity brokers and speculators are responsible for some of the food difficulties facing less developed nations. >>
Corn is only my "favorite" chart only because of the huge classic cup formation it has put in over 3 yrs...not because of all the difficulties that will arise to feed the world.
Speculators are part of the problem, no doubt. But they are merely the tail wagging the dog. Who gave the speculators and commercials the free reign to be able to speculate
w/o limitation in the marketplace and who has provided the easy money to them to perpetuate it? Those guys are only speculating with the tools and supplies given to them by
the FED, Treasury, politicians, regulators...as well as the people who keep electing them. How can our top 25 banks hold $321 TRILL in reported derivatives? Why do your banks
need to hold a $200 BILL position in gold derivatives? What do speculators and large funds do to survive in an environment of rigged interest rates, TRILLIONs in "free" digidollars,
along with a constantly weakening dollar? They are just doing what they are allowed to do. The fact that the corn chart is pointing at $13 is the tail of the dog pointing at the policies
of the past 30 yrs that got it to that point. Unrest is coming to most western industrialized nations. We'd all better get used to it.
roadrunner >>
I agree.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I guess with this way of thinking since the stock market was Dow 14k plus and NASDAQ 5k plus you could say it's the worst investment of the century. No one buying and holding anything except a few things like PM's have make money the last decade.
Yes everything is great. I just wonder why some would even be over here if they feel everything is great in the good old USA.
Commodities Look Set to Rocket Higher
<< <i>the adx/dmi tools are looking like their pointing to a buy today or very very close especially on Silver >>
Seems like the adx +/- spread is still wide and not yet contracting. Am I missing something?
Most of the dozen or so SLV indicators/oscillators seemed to be pointing to the potential of more downside.
But the bollinger bands, mfi, and accum/distrib appear slightly bullish to me. All assuming the charts aren't painted.
roadrunner
I might be reading the tea leaves wrong but on the daily silver/nearest siu11 , thats how it appears to me, very very close.
If I am missing something please point it out, I like to learn.
<< <i>Here's a good read:
Commodities Look Set to Rocket Higher >>
Interesting. Thanks for posting. I agree with the supply side theory of his, however there's more nat gas available now that at any previous time in history.
In the cotton market, planters project to plant 60% increase next year over 2011. The corn farmers are committed to planting record amounts.
I think if the developing nations remain vibrant and growing (if there's no world depression), hog and cattle prices should continue rising as
purchases pick up. But if grain prices collapse feed will be cheaper and that'll increase live stock numbers. I don't see any race up in prices of
commodities, yet the trend, I think does remain up. It's just my opinion, but I think any sharp pull back in prices aside from nat. gas should be bot.
Any quick and sharp increase in corn or beans...toward $8 or $1425 should probably be sold. JMHO
I need to look into some pure play natural gas ETF's.
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
or if there's a drought or hail or high winds or something, supply decreases and prices increase? which causes demand to fall, causing prices to fall again?
hmmmm
do producers, consumers, and speculators making bets in the futures markets ever influence these cycles?
hmmm
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I'm putting my $$ in corn
With corn, gold and silver you got it made!!!!!!!
<< <i>hey cohodk, how about some updated charts and commentary? thanks >>
Will try to update this tonight. Was at a Polish wedding this weekend. Anybody ever been to one?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What we are seeing now is deflation in wages and standards coupled with decreasing ability to pay.
About the worst scenario possible.
<< <i>
<< <i>hey cohodk, how about some updated charts and commentary? thanks >>
Will try to update this tonight. Was at a Polish wedding this weekend. Anybody ever been to one? >>
Ya still hung over?
Shoulda known I was in trouble when there was a bottle of vodka AND a bottle of scotch on each table.
Using a different chart service than in the OP as I'll be able to add a bit more historical perspective and maintain consistancy with my other charts.
Overall I would say the charts are neutral. Maybe a double top in corn and a head and shoulders in wheat, but probably just more consolidation to come. Many people were worried that the run-up in prices last winter was inflationary, but it looks like most of those increases have been erased as prices have reverted back to approximately pre-QE2 levels. Nice transfer of wealth from urban areas(food consumers) to rural areas (food producers) or, if you will, the city slickers to the grain farmers. A nice engineering move by the FED and Administration to give the farmers more money to buy tractors and fertilizers thus keeping workers at POT, MOS, DE, AGCO, and CAT busy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Corn on 9-19 was 6.93. On 11-21 was 5.99 for a drop of 13.56%, currently in a support zone going back 13 months.
Wheat on 9-19 was 6.75. On 11-21 was 6.09 for a drop of 9.78% at a 15 month low.
Soybeans on 9-19 was 1336. On 11-21 was 1151 for a drop of 13.85% and at 13 month low.
Interesting to look back at the comments from the beginning of the thread. Almost everyone saw the charts as going higher, yet 5 months later prices on average are 15% lower. Im not trying to single anyone out, just demonstrating that this is why so few people have confidence in technical analysis and are confused by the relationship of expectations in fundamental and technical analysis.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Nothing HYPER about disinflation
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
What is amazing is how poorly commodities have performed this year. Who'da thunk?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I actually nibbled on some DBA (agricultural etf) yesterday. Just looking for a quick trade. It might have happened already.
What is amazing is how poorly commodities have performed this year. Who'da thunk? >>
All those multi-year cups with handles throughout the grain sector sure look set to do better in 2012. Unfortunately for them, 2011 was the year to add on the handles to
those big fat cups. You can't shovel grain out of a bin w/o a nice scooper with a handle.
Looks like cocoa has dropped plenty into the 2000 range (-47%) with a nice 4 pt descending channel. Time to nibble on the NIBs?
roadrunner
Very enticing chart pattern on that one Roadrunner. Its now on my watchlist.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Originially written 11-22-11
<< <i>Not going to repost charts, but will update with closing prices form yesterday on the above 3 charts.
Corn on 9-19 was 6.93. On 11-21 was 5.99 for a drop of 13.56%, currently in a support zone going back 13 months.
Wheat on 9-19 was 6.75. On 11-21 was 6.09 for a drop of 9.78% at a 15 month low.
Soybeans on 9-19 was 1336. On 11-21 was 1151 for a drop of 13.85% and at 13 month low.
Interesting to look back at the comments from the beginning of the thread. Almost everyone saw the charts as going higher, yet 5 months later prices on average are 15% lower. Im not trying to single anyone out, just demonstrating that this is why so few people have confidence in technical analysis and are confused by the relationship of expectations in fundamental and technical analysis. >>
Update to today.
Corn at $6.18
Wheat at $6.18
Soybeans at $12.15.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Nibble at the cocoa, I get it
I called that one leg too early as it looks to have bottomed in December. Now back to about the Nov 22nd level when I first called it.
Still like the 5 legs down and double bottom with a "W" shape. Not sure I know enough about the cocoa market to make a play. Someone
like me is safer with simpler things like DBA or a grain ETF, which are still quite volatile.
I was calling for handles on those 3-4 yr cups since June. Now that we have them for the most part, opens up a different view. This was as
simple as TA can get based on principles in Edwards and Magee. I'm far from a TA expert. But chartists that I follow are really good at this
stuff when laying out longer term trends. That's where TA has real value. Not so sure I'd place EW Theory in that same level of confidence.
roadrunner
We know the PMs are down, how about the other metals? Aluminum, antimony, copper, lead, tin, zinc, all down from a year ago.
hmmmm..
edit: link to charts
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
Sorry I couldnt use the same format for the charts, but here I have posted the longer term view. Its easy to see what has happened since the OP started this thread in mid-2011. Interesting how all the charts seemed to change direction at that time. Dang charts aint good for nothin' except looking at the past.
Earlier in the thread it was commented that inflation was easy to see. Was it really? Some commented on how ag commods were not relevant to PMs. Really? Some said the charts clearly showed uptrends. Really?
Many people fail technical analysis because they look at charts backwards and try to impart what they think are fundamentals into their vision of the charts. Just look at charts as data, forget "fundamentals".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Historical/past data.
And, data is not knowledge.