The Japanese coin market...

MrEureka

I've been thinking about the Japanese coin market for two reasons. First, because Heritage is selling a major collection in September. Second, because I'm thinking that some of the trends in the US market are beginning to look something like the Japanese market in some ways.

Then again, I don't really know much about the Japanese market. My impression is that first-rate and expensive coins tend to get sold into strong hands for the very long term, often with the intention of maintaining the coins as a family asset for generations. On the other hand, less-than-wonderful Japanese coins seem to be dead in the water.

Because Japan's economic and demographic experience is in some ways similar to that of the USA, but with a head start of a decade or two, I wonder if the market for US coins will in some ways develop similarly to that for Japanese coins. It certainly seems like we're on that path.

I'd love to hear more from those of you who know more about the Japanese market, especially if you can tell us what the Japanese market was like in the 60's and 70's and 80's.

jt88

I could be wrong but I thought Janpan coin market is pretty soft in price. I saw lots of nice gold coins on sale in some dealers site for very reasonalbe price compaire with Chinese coin price.

wybrit

I'd reckon that summary pretty much applies to the British coin market as well.

secondrepublic

I can't speak to their coin market, but the demographics of Japan are far different than the U.S. Their population is shrinking (albeit still slowly); whereas ours is growing by close to 3 million a year due to higher birth rates and immigration:

"The Census Bureau projects a U.S. population of 439 million in 2050, which is a 46% increase from 2007 (301.3 million).... [S]uch growth is unlike most European countries, especially Germany, Russia, Italy, and Greece, or Asian countries such as Japan or South Korea, whose populations are slowly declining, and whose fertility rates are below replacement." Link.

Other things equal, this should mean higher growth potential for U.S. coins versus Japanese coins.

Of course, "other things" are rarely equal.

MacCrimmon

<< <i>I can't speak to their coin market, but the demographics of Japan are far different than the U.S. Their population is shrinking (albeit still slowly); whereas ours is growing by close to 3 million a year due to higher birth rates and immigration:

"The Census Bureau projects a U.S. population of 439 million in 2050, which is a 46% increase from 2007 (301.3 million).... [S]uch growth is unlike most European countries, especially Germany, Russia, Italy, and Greece, or Asian countries such as Japan or South Korea, whose populations are slowly declining, and whose fertility rates are below replacement." Link.

Other things equal, this should mean higher growth potential for U.S. coins versus Japanese coins.

Of course, "other things" are rarely equal. >>




Other things being equal, or at least an observation from the past decade re: Russian and Chinese coinage, is to watch for meteoric rises in all Indian coinage from the Mughals to the British Raj and Empire material. Eventually, India may well catch and maybe surpass China on the world stage. They are already starting to make larger energy plays for oil and natgas to improve the quality of life for the better part of 1.3M plus people.

secondrepublic

Indian coinage could be a great investment. I've thought the same about some of the Middle Eastern countries (Egypt, Iran) with big populations. If the political and economic situation turned, you've got a big potential base of collectors.

jt88

I think Chinese coins are still have long way to go on the up side. Chinese money value is increasing compare with US dollar. Chinese inflation is also higher than US. Chinese people always have a tendency of mass movement on investment or something. The only down side is the fake coin but since there are so many fake coins in China some Chinese investors or collectors prefer to buy US graded coins.

7Jaguars

I just don't see how population numbers or growth necessarily implies growth or health to a country's coin market. Pop culture in fact seems to be massively steering AWAY from coins IMO....

MacCrimmon

<< <i>I think Chinese coins are still have long way to go on the up side. Chinese money value is increasing compare with US dollar. Chinese inflation is also higher than US. Chinese people always have a tendency of mass movement on investment or something. The only down side is the fake coin but since there are so many fake coins in China some Chinese investors or collectors prefer to buy US graded coins. >>



Oh, the irony!




<< <i>"Our brethren are cheating scoundrels, so we prefer to invest in U.S. coins graded by PCGS." - Phoo Yu >>

questor54

I have collected Japanese coins (and paper money) casually since the early 1970's - having built and sold several collections. The 1970s were definitely a hot time in Japanese coins, with items such as the government issued mint sets fetching very high prices. Certain classic Japanese gold has become much more available in the marketplace currently, especially with the sale of coins from the Bank of Japan.

Japanese collectors do not generally collect just 'homeland' coins. Japan has had banks and established puppet governments in areas such as Manchuria and Korea in the 20th century. Not to mention the wide range of Japanese-related military and occupation issues of World War II.

If you want a joint Japan-China play, check out the coins of the Japanese puppet banks in China and the issues of the Japanese puppet empire of Manchukuo. If you want a Japan-Korea play, check out the issues of Korea (Chosen) during the decades of Japanese influence.

Serious colloectors in Japan are EXTREMELY picky about condition. In that way they are very similar to serious collectors in the US>