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I got a feeling about the rare coin market

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    BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    I hear voices, they tell me what I need to k now about the economy.

    Right now, they are saying to take my coins , scoot under the bed

    and stay there until everything blows over. Oh yes, and bring some

    food and water along.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
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    renomedphysrenomedphys Posts: 3,998 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The strength of the market will be dictated by availability of high quality material, as always. When it's gone, so too will be the "feeling".
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    BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    Thetre will always be high grade coins available. Sure the supply is tight, but you pay up

    and you get the coins available. You look to buy on the cheap and you end up with the

    dregs of the market place.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
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    bestclser1bestclser1 Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    This is in your honor Bear!image
    Great coins are not cheap,and cheap coins are not great!
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    LucyBopLucyBop Posts: 14,001 ✭✭✭
    I've got a feeling also....

    and after this Margarita, I'm gonna feel some more...
    imageBe Bop A Lula!!
    "Senorita HepKitty"
    "I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
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    PawPaulPawPaul Posts: 5,845
    Lip Service ??
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    GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I've got a feeling also....

    and after this Margarita, I'm gonna feel some more... >>



    image

    I have to say that, though I enjoy coin collecting immensely, I do not think it has a bright future. Building the base or mountain, as some have said, requires a lot of things, but one thing it definitely requires is YNs coming into the hobby. That's a tough one these days for many reasons discussed:
    1) competition from video games
    2) lack of people introducing YNs to the hobby one at a time
    3) in some places, a preponderance of kid-unfriendly B&M dealers
    4) less use of coins in commerce
    5) shortage of interesting coins in circulation

    People may debate this last point, and I am not sure about it myself, but I know what got me turned on to the hobby was finding Mercury dimes, Walker halves, etc... I really don't see anything comparable floating around these days. I've asked many people if they even know about the ATB series. Not a single one has responded "yes".

    Blah, blah, blah...I'll be hoping for the best and enjoying what I enjoy.
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
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    Gritsman maybe you could throw in circulation a few mercs now and them and stir up some excitement. I for one am convinced that part of the problem with finding new YN is that the younger the generation the quicker the gratification must me to keep them entertained. Coins take patients, study and a type of personality. JMO. Among with many of the comments you have made I don't see a bright future.
    Winner of the "You Suck!" award March 17, 2010 by LanLord, doh, 123cents and Bear.
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    ctf_error_coinsctf_error_coins Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭✭
    " lack of people introducing YNs to the hobby one at a time"

    IMO, I think the State Quarter Program brought in a huge number of YN's. Those YN's are now teenagers now and are interested in the opposite sex and cars and have no interest in coins, at the moment.

    I will bet many of these ex YN's will become collectors Again when they get older.

    I only see a bright future for coins, But I always try to see the bright side of everything.
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    questor54questor54 Posts: 1,351
    Coin collecting for the middle-class is toast.

    It will be decades at least before the middle class rebuilds itself from the economic destruction that has been thrown at us. 10 lost years in the stock market, 28% of mortgaged houses with negative equity. Glut of bank-owned foreclosed real estate that has crashed in value and cannot be sold. Negative real-interest rates on bank savings. REAL unemployment and underemployment at goodness-knows-what levels (9.1% is a joke). REAL inflation rates at goodness-knows-what levels (the official figures DO NOT include food and fuel - another joke). Federal government struggling to pay the INTEREST on the national debt. Federal unfunded entitlements off the chart ($100 trillion? Who knows?) State and local governmental debt out of control. Cities, counties and states considering bankruptcy or actually going bankrupt. Personal bankruptcies on the rise. Small business bankruptcies on the rise.

    Hard to see where middle-class coin collecting fits in. Middle-class people are struggling financially, and the worst is yet to come. Only the strongest families and the hardest working and most capable people will be able to stay 'middle class'. We are in a self-reinforcing downward financial spiral.

    And, oh yeah, the US dollar is toast. The dollar is not 'money' (defined in the Constitution as gold and silver). The dollar is 'fiat currency', and no fiat currency has ever survived. Inflating our way out of our debt is the only thing we can do. Unfortunately, that will destroy every dollar-denominated bond holder as well as all recipients of pensions and social security as well as those who hold any notes denominated in dollars on which the interest rate cannot be dramatically increased.

    It has all happened in other countries at other times. It will happen here.

    Have fun with your coins. While you can. I have fun with mine.

  • Options
    TheBigBTheBigB Posts: 942


    << <i>Coin collecting for the masses is toast. >>


    The masses are toast.
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    jamesfsmjamesfsm Posts: 652 ✭✭
    Bear, can you enlighten us as to what series of coins you think are doing well or will do well?

    And, can advise what you mean by coins with attractive toning (that is, with toning that warrants a premium)? As an example, I see only a handful of coins on your site I would pay extra for because of the toning. Are you including the light golden toning as premium toning?

    Thank you for your knowledge and help.
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    PawPaulPawPaul Posts: 5,845
    It will be decades at least before the middle class rebuilds itself from the economic destruction that has been thrown at us. 10 lost years in the stock market, 28% of mortgaged houses with negative equity. Glut of bank-owned foreclosed real estate that has crashed in value and cannot be sold. Negative real-interest rates on bank savings. REAL unemployment and underemployment at goodness-knows-what levels (9.1% is a joke). REAL inflation rates at goodness-knows-what levels (the official figures DO NOT include food and fuel - another joke). Federal government struggling to pay the INTEREST on the national debt. Federal unfunded entitlements off the chart ($100 trillion? Who knows?) State and local governmental debt out of control. Cities, counties and states considering bankruptcy or actually going bankrupt. Personal bankruptcies on the rise. Small business bankruptcies on the rise. Hard to see where middle-class coin collecting fits in. Middle-class people are struggling financially, and the worst is yet to come. Only the strongest families and the hardest working and most capable people will be able to stay 'middle class'. We are in a self-reinforcing downward financial spiral. And, oh yeah, the US dollar is toast. The dollar is not 'money' (defined in the Constitution as gold and silver). The dollar is 'fiat currency', and no fiat currency has ever survived. Inflating our way out of our debt is the only thing we can do. Unfortunately, that will destroy every dollar-denominated bond holder as well as all recipients of pensions and social security as well as those who hold any notes denominated in dollars on which the interest rate cannot be dramatically increased. It has all happened in other countries at other times. It will happen here.

    Frank -

    don't know who you are , .....but I love you !

    and if I could , I would engrave your words above in gold here and require everyone to read them .

    I love my coins as much as the next guy , and hope the market takes off on a tear the likes we have never seen b4 ;

    but just in case (image ) ,

    today I moved 175 thousand dollars of my I.R.A into Gold, Silver , and Copper !
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    BlindedByEgoBlindedByEgo Posts: 10,754 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yep... And so long as the same government that controls the printing press also controls the official reporting of inflation, the folks counting on COLAs will get crushed... Good luck to us all.



    << <i>Coin collecting for the middle-class is toast.

    It will be decades at least before the middle class rebuilds itself from the economic destruction that has been thrown at us. 10 lost years in the stock market, 28% of mortgaged houses with negative equity. Glut of bank-owned foreclosed real estate that has crashed in value and cannot be sold. Negative real-interest rates on bank savings. REAL unemployment and underemployment at goodness-knows-what levels (9.1% is a joke). REAL inflation rates at goodness-knows-what levels (the official figures DO NOT include food and fuel - another joke). Federal government struggling to pay the INTEREST on the national debt. Federal unfunded entitlements off the chart ($100 trillion? Who knows?) State and local governmental debt out of control. Cities, counties and states considering bankruptcy or actually going bankrupt. Personal bankruptcies on the rise. Small business bankruptcies on the rise.

    Hard to see where middle-class coin collecting fits in. Middle-class people are struggling financially, and the worst is yet to come. Only the strongest families and the hardest working and most capable people will be able to stay 'middle class'. We are in a self-reinforcing downward financial spiral.

    And, oh yeah, the US dollar is toast. The dollar is not 'money' (defined in the Constitution as gold and silver). The dollar is 'fiat currency', and no fiat currency has ever survived. Inflating our way out of our debt is the only thing we can do. Unfortunately, that will destroy every dollar-denominated bond holder as well as all recipients of pensions and social security as well as those who hold any notes denominated in dollars on which the interest rate cannot be dramatically increased.

    It has all happened in other countries at other times. It will happen here.

    Have fun with your coins. While you can. I have fun with mine. >>

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    BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    As for toning, the Sitting Liberty Quarter in blue and gold, is the kind of toning that I pay extra as well as the

    Washington Carver and the Booker T Washington.The golden 1888 Seated Liberty Quarter I

    did not pay extra for the gold toning. Also I will not usualy pay more then 20 - 30 % premium , even for the

    most beautiful toning. However, as every collector knows, there are exceptions to even the best of intentions

    where you might go 2X. I know some folks go crazy with multiples of 4X to 7X but that is just too much money

    fore a single coin. The word buried always flashes in my mind.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • Options
    questor54questor54 Posts: 1,351


    << <i>It will be decades at least before the middle class rebuilds itself from the economic destruction that has been thrown at us. 10 lost years in the stock market, 28% of mortgaged houses with negative equity. Glut of bank-owned foreclosed real estate that has crashed in value and cannot be sold. Negative real-interest rates on bank savings. REAL unemployment and underemployment at goodness-knows-what levels (9.1% is a joke). REAL inflation rates at goodness-knows-what levels (the official figures DO NOT include food and fuel - another joke). Federal government struggling to pay the INTEREST on the national debt. Federal unfunded entitlements off the chart ($100 trillion? Who knows?) State and local governmental debt out of control. Cities, counties and states considering bankruptcy or actually going bankrupt. Personal bankruptcies on the rise. Small business bankruptcies on the rise. Hard to see where middle-class coin collecting fits in. Middle-class people are struggling financially, and the worst is yet to come. Only the strongest families and the hardest working and most capable people will be able to stay 'middle class'. We are in a self-reinforcing downward financial spiral. And, oh yeah, the US dollar is toast. The dollar is not 'money' (defined in the Constitution as gold and silver). The dollar is 'fiat currency', and no fiat currency has ever survived. Inflating our way out of our debt is the only thing we can do. Unfortunately, that will destroy every dollar-denominated bond holder as well as all recipients of pensions and social security as well as those who hold any notes denominated in dollars on which the interest rate cannot be dramatically increased. It has all happened in other countries at other times. It will happen here.

    Frank -

    don't know who you are , .....but I love you !

    and if I could , I would engrave your words above in gold here and require everyone to read them .

    I love my coins as much as the next guy , and hope the market takes off on a tear the likes we have never seen b4 ;

    but just in case (image ) ,

    today I moved 175 thousand dollars of my I.R.A into Gold, Silver , and Copper ! >>



    There are a lot of Americans like us. The best thing we can do is become aware, and stay aware, of what is really going on. Trust physical commodities. Don't trust paper commodities (such as futures, ETFs, deposit receipts). Do our best to take care of our families and loved ones. Stay healthy if we can. Get good educations - not the political indoctrination provided in too many of our Universities. Pray - thank God for the America we have known and for the America to come. Explain our values to other people - we need as many strong hands, hearts and minds as we can get. Teach our values to the children - and tell them to teach those values to their children. We may not live to see it, but some future generation will rebuild the dream that is America.

    Sorry for the OT post. Sorry to hijack your thread HRH.
  • Options
    PawPaulPawPaul Posts: 5,845
    "The word buried always flashes in my mind. "

    .....wasn't there a wise ole' Bear that paid over 5 thousand dollars for a certain 1958 MS 66 Franklin ??
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    BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    Yes, even wise old bears suffer from periods of stupidity.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
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    PawPaulPawPaul Posts: 5,845
    Stupidity is pretty strong .......

    .......how about senility ? image
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    cladkingcladking Posts: 30,201 ✭✭✭✭✭
    People are way too quick to write off the American economy. Writing off lower priced coins
    might be even more wrong actually. The last time the American economy took a big dump
    the coin hobby benefited dramatically. People didn't have jobs but they had the time to
    collect coins so they collected coins. It's a heck of a lot easier now to assemble a set of
    clad quarters if you don't have a job than it was to assemble a set of dimes during the de-
    pression with no job. Most people have more wealth now and many will just try to ride it
    out if it really does get bad.

    A lot of foreign economies aren't hurting at all yet, or least not their middle classes so the
    prices of base metal circulating coinage is still exploding. Throw in the millions of states
    collectors returning to the hobby and even a depression might not be enough to hold
    these markets down.

    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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    BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    Cladking, an interesting and possibly correct perspective. We shall indeed see

    If you are correct as time and events occur.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
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    TheBigBTheBigB Posts: 942


    << <i>The last time the American economy took a big dump
    the coin hobby benefited dramatically. People didn't have jobs but they had the time to
    collect coins so they collected coins. >>



    I have one counter argument for you, the iphone and ipad.
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    cladkingcladking Posts: 30,201 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>
    I have one counter argument for you, the iphone and ipad. >>



    There are plenty of demands on peoples' time and other outlets to spend one's time now
    days but some of these can be extremely expensive for someone who's unemployed and
    has no immediate prospects to get a job. IPhones start at $75 a month but a telephone and
    internet access is as little as $25 a month. The cost of a single month of IPhone usage is
    enough to collect every single one of the modern circulating coins with the varieties.

    This isn't to say we're headed toward a crash; indeed, we may be just around the corner
    from boom times again. Most of our problems are financial even though there are signif-
    icant structural problems not being addressed or fully addressed. Many of our biggest
    problems would actually cost less money if they were rectified. There is certainly ample
    opportunity to increase efficiency and stop the destruction of wealth.

    Be this as it may the fact is there are a great number of less expensive coins exploding in
    price. The new world coin catalog shows massive gains on the order of 240 fold for some
    of the early modern Soviet coins. Coins like the early 1970 kopeks are up not 240% or
    even 2400%, but are up 24,000%. Some of the Indian proof sets that were up five or
    ten fold last year are up another three or four fold this year.

    Obviously a lot of this is reporting error and the coins have actually been increasing more
    smoothly in the real world. Some of the big gains aren't reported for various reasons like
    the increases Spanish moderns might not be getting reported because the Spanish econ-
    omy is weak at the current time.

    Frankly I still think that a weakening economy would strenghten many of these modern
    markets rather than destroy them. Modern coin prices aren't soaring because there are
    masses of people getting into them. They are soaring because the coins tend to be non-
    existent in uncirculated condition. In many cases the coins were so poorly saved and so
    thoroughly melted that even low grade coins are turning out to be hard to find. A 1979
    Rouble lists for $14 in VF!!! Russians didn't set these coins aside and were discouraged
    from collecting coins at all by the government. They did not set them aside and the mint
    sets have had a very high attrition. Mintages of the sets were low so they were hard to
    find but the values were tiny and people tore them up and dealers put the coins in the junk
    buckets. 30 years of abuse has made them far harder to find.

    There are sill many millions of younger and newer collectors who do have jobs and where-
    ever these people decide to collect there will be supply constraints. This will be true whet-
    her they are collecting $30 apiece buffalo nickels or "common" clad. And there will be still
    increasing demand for world coins that seem common but are actually scarce. Just as pro-
    fits from gold and silver spills over into old US coins there will be spillover from US and
    world moderns into classics. There will be a growing base for coins for at least another
    generation and a half. Coins do well when the stock market isn't and there might be some
    time for coins to move before macroeconomic factors slow them. It could well start now
    but autumn seems more likely to me. Maybe even next year. My crystal ball doesn't al-
    ways pick up lows until they're in the rear view mirror.


    A rising tide lifts all the boats not tied too closely to the dock.
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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    DRUNNERDRUNNER Posts: 3,946 ✭✭✭✭✭
    OK . .I just got down to page 2 . .

    If the Doily makes a comeback, I am a dead man. Heck, I am already buried in these things . . I might as well be dead and buried . . . .

    Drunner
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    BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭


    << <i>OK . .I just got down to page 2 . .

    If the Doily makes a comeback, I am a dead man. Heck, I am already buried in these things . . I might as well be dead and buried . .

    Well, at least that is better, then being alive and buried.. .

    Drunner >>

    image


    Seriously though, most doilies and green labels have been pretty well cherry picked. They are valuable if you

    collect copper though. Since that are decades old, if the copper looks nice in the holder, it means that the coin has

    probably not been doctored and the color is stable. That is a very important consideration when you spen hundreds

    or even thousands of dollars for a coin. For silver coins, I believe that the premium for Green labels and doilies is really

    too high. 10-15 % would be the top premium for a really nice coin. For average coins, I would not pay any premium at

    all because the coin is probably at the bottom of the grade.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage

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