Opinions on this cello authenticity

cellos

I would have already pulled the trigger on this one but it looks a little shady to me. The upper left back flap doesn't look right and finding any other 1982 cellos with the back card face out is fairly rare in itself but maybe that's just me. What do you guys think?

1982 Cello

mikeschmidt

Too many red flags for me.

Planemonkey

The centering on the 2 cards is so different, seems like they more similar if printed that close together.

diamondman

The back looks funny to me and looks like the cellophane is ripped /torn in one place. myself I would pass but if I had to have it use a credit card buy it then inspect it in hand and make a decision then. jmho

Maverick11

<< <i>The centering on the 2 cards is so different, seems like they more similar if printed that close together. >>



Centering on 1980's Topps cellos often varied, sometimes dramatically, on each side of the gum.

wallst32

There is something quite not right about the two rear upper corner folds (the fold on top of Bob's face and the fold on top of Jeff's face).

cellos

Thanks for the opinions on this pack. I'll have to pass on it since it doesn't look so good. I wish it was legit because I have been looking for a 1982 double ripken cello for a while.

Cokin75

To chime in on this.... back in the day late '70's/80's, I was no high volume dealer or anything, but I spent hours upon hours of my childhood going through cello boxes (looking for Brewers or cards I needed for my set on front or back). Of the thousands of packs that I looked at, I don't recall ever seeing the same card on the front and the back, let alone the key card of the set. Later, as a small time dealer, I opened and sold hundreds of cello boxes, and never saw one either. It follows that I am very skeptical of all of these types of packs floating around the hobby. For example, it seems that every other '78 cello on eBay has either Murray or Molitor on front. The odds of finding a pack like this are 1:726. I believe that cello cases were 24*12 back then, so you are looking at 288 packs in a case. This means that a cello with any card on front would be 2 to every 5 cases. There just seems to be too many of these packs out there floating around for me not to think that something's rotten in Denmark. In this case, a Ripken on front would be a 1:792 proposition, even ignoring my observation that the collation was staggered in a way by Topps where you wouldn't receive dupes in a pack due to the different collations in the front and back segments (rarely if ever happened), the odds of getting a Ripken on front AND back would be 792*792, or 1:627,264 packs or 1:2178 cases. I'm calling B.S. on these packs, because there are just too many of them floating around. Sounds like a great way to make a profit- take a $6 pack, buy 2 NM Ripkens for 20 bucks or so a piece, and sell the item for several hundred. My guess is that a skilled forger can open the top flap and construct these packs fairly easily.

Probstein123

run away !!

cellos

<< <i>To chime in on this.... back in the day late '70's/80's, I was no high volume dealer or anything, but I spent hours upon hours of my childhood going through cello boxes (looking for Brewers or cards I needed for my set on front or back). Of the thousands of packs that I looked at, I don't recall ever seeing the same card on the front and the back, let alone the key card of the set. Later, as a small time dealer, I opened and sold hundreds of cello boxes, and never saw one either. It follows that I am very skeptical of all of these types of packs floating around the hobby. For example, it seems that every other '78 cello on eBay has either Murray or Molitor on front. The odds of finding a pack like this are 1:726. I believe that cello cases were 24*12 back then, so you are looking at 288 packs in a case. This means that a cello with any card on front would be 2 to every 5 cases. There just seems to be too many of these packs out there floating around for me not to think that something's rotten in Denmark. In this case, a Ripken on front would be a 1:792 proposition, even ignoring my observation that the collation was staggered in a way by Topps where you wouldn't receive dupes in a pack due to the different collations in the front and back segments (rarely if ever happened), the odds of getting a Ripken on front AND back would be 792*792, or 1:627,264 packs or 1:2178 cases. I'm calling B.S. on these packs, because there are just too many of them floating around. Sounds like a great way to make a profit- take a $6 pack, buy 2 NM Ripkens for 20 bucks or so a piece, and sell the item for several hundred. My guess is that a skilled forger can open the top flap and construct these packs fairly easily. >>



I agree that most are fakes but with how many were produced there would have to be some legit ones that got out of the factory. I don't know the production numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few million cello packs made in 1982. Most of the real double star packs probably got opened long ago and there may not be any double Ripken's left in existence but statistically speaking I would bet at some point there was a few. If any survived though, who knows?

grote15

1982 Topps was notorious for miswraps and loosely wrapped packs. I second the warning about being very wary about packs with same star card on front and back (or evenn different stars on front and back) but we really cannot say for certain without holding the pack in hand and examining other aspects of the pack like the patterning of the cards behind the star card and the wrap of the cards around the gum in the middle of the pack.

scotgreb

I have no clue as to the authenticity of the cello in question -- but I wouldn't get hung up on the "odds" of one existing -- unless there is evidence to support that it cannot, e.g., that all cellos were perfectly collated. Certainly there have been cellos containing two Ripkens -- or two of any other player, for that matter. The odds of front/back duplication are the same as any other combination in the cello -- unless you have info regarding the collation.

With respect to the availability of "star" cellos -- I'm sure some, if not many, are fake -- but I would expect a great survivorship bias to star cellos -- the same can't be said for cellos with bums on top -- they are going to get ripped.

NickM

Cellos with the same card on the front and back do exist. I have 2 from Topps of that era (both are common players - one was Duane Kuiper and I think the other was Andy Hawkins) and I've seen others. Cellos where the back card is facing outward do exist - probably at the rate of 5% of all cellos.
Put the combination together, make it the biggest star possible, and it's going to be very, very unlikely.
I wouldn't believe in the authenticity of that pack unless I saw it pulled out of a case that I saw unsealed.

Nick