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Silver bubble?

derrybderryb Posts: 37,398 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
I think not:

image

Capital investment depends on confidence. - Martin Armstrong

Comments

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    derryb you can't use 1980 as a starting point, that is ridiculous. This is why silver was in a bubble, because of crooked charts like this.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 37,398 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>derryb you can't use 1980 as a starting point, that is ridiculous. This is why silver was in a bubble, because of crooked charts like this. >>


    So, you're saying silver is/was recently in a bubble? image

    Capital investment depends on confidence. - Martin Armstrong

  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    there are THREE types of lies

    lies
    damn lies
    and statistics

    that chart proves this true. Only a matter of months apart on those silver stats would take you from $5 to $50. That would be 1000%.
    Sorry Derry, that chart is not worth the pixels it's shown onimage
    Have a nice day
  • razzlerazzle Posts: 987 ✭✭✭
    A lot of commodities were inflated in 1980, not just silver. Housing and gas are two that come to mind. I don't think this chart would change a whole lot regardless of start date.
    Markets (governments) can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent.
  • ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i> you can't use 1980 as a starting point, that is ridiculous. This is why silver was in a bubble, because of crooked charts like this. >>



    It's a lot better than most as an indication IMO. Silver was used in circulation coinage until 1969. You couldn't own gold until 1974. The PM markets were controlled until that time. Maybe you'd like to see a chart of 100 or 200 years that it was controlled to would that make you feel better?

    You want to see a screwed up stat, look at the DOW average that throws the dogs and bankrupt companies out and replaces them with high flayers. It's not like the average is based on the same stocks over time.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    we see a chart showing the relative price change in a group of asset classes, but what's that giant bar in the middle that represents an abstract and doesn't belong in this group of statistics? and what's with the hand-picked date range? Anyway, the goverment bought something with that money, sure, wasted some, but invested much.

    as for silver bubble, we'll see, we'll see. its reputation is tarnished for now. buying opportunity or bull trap? time will tell. I still own some but not adding yet.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    The year makes a huge difference, let me just compare two years to give the other side.

    1990 to 2010 using the numbers on that chart.

    Federal Government debt

    1990 3 trillion
    2010 14 trillion

    percentage increase 367%

    Silver

    1990 $4
    2010 $40

    percentage increase 900%

    Silver drastically inflated higher than the national debt from 1990 to 2010, 900% to only 367%.

    See how easy it is ttown?




  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,333 ✭✭✭✭
    We've seen the $35 mark before on the way up and we thought it was expensive.
    Stick around. I'm calling silver to go much much higher. We're only warming up, despite the weekly pull back. Pull backs use to take months, and now they happen in a week.
    Hang on.
    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What I find most interesting in that chart is that few of those prices are close to the CPI predictor since 1980 which would suggest a price change of around 2.5X.
    Of course we won't mention that the CPI was massively altered in 1983 as well as in the 1990's and beyond.

    Gold hasn't even come close to getting to the 2.5X number. And if we use the peak prices in 1980, neither has silver.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    How can you chart any thing if they(talking heads) keep changing the rules?
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 37,398 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>How can you chart any thing if they(talking heads) keep changing the rules? >>


    We've got rules?

    Capital investment depends on confidence. - Martin Armstrong

  • ChrisRxChrisRx Posts: 5,619 ✭✭✭✭
    Wow, a 30-year old starting point. I am sure you can use almost anything with a 30-year starting point and talk about a "bubble."
    image
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    yeah, let's graph the 30 year change in life expectancy, relative health, freedom from pernicious diseases, access to information, choices of goods and services, access to travel, road safety, food safety, number of people with cars or cellphones, percentage of homes with televisions, microwaves, air conditioning, computers, cabernet..

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The only real bubble is a 40 yr old one that started in 1971 as world currencies floated. All other perceived "bubbles" have emanated from that one.

    Another obvious >50 yr old bubble is the continuing increases in heart disease, cancers, diabetes, alzheimers, etc. A bubble brought to us via processed
    and packaged foods loaded with chemicals and additives.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • CoinCrazyPACoinCrazyPA Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭✭
    Another obvious >50 yr old bubble is the continuing increases in heart disease, cancers, diabetes, alzheimers, etc. A bubble brought to us via processed
    and packaged foods loaded with chemicals and additives.

    Most Americans still do not understand the effects of this. Well put, Mike
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  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    the increase in the rates of detection and treatment for those conditions have also increased, concurrent with increased longevity, meaning people don't die of polio or tuberculosis as often these days, so the live long enough to develop "rich man's disease" like those you mentioned, and gout, for example. Correlations do not always prove causative relationships.

    you know what they say about statistics. image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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