What will Bernanke say?
Leham
Posts: 24
I'm new to the precious metal world. I've decided to get in because of inflation fears. ZIRP, bailouts, discount window lending, and quantitative easing have given me good reason to fear inflation. Now to my question.
It seems most foreign national banks are raising their interest rates to stop inflation and now Bernanke wants to hold a press conference right after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Bernanke will announce one of two things.
1) The US Fed will begin raising interest rates to fight inflation
2) The Fed will continue with ZIRP and begin a QE3
What do you think his announcement will be and how will that effect PMs, the dollar, and the economy?
It seems most foreign national banks are raising their interest rates to stop inflation and now Bernanke wants to hold a press conference right after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Bernanke will announce one of two things.
1) The US Fed will begin raising interest rates to fight inflation
2) The Fed will continue with ZIRP and begin a QE3
What do you think his announcement will be and how will that effect PMs, the dollar, and the economy?
0
Comments
FED priority is a continued weak dollar. IF it raises rates, it will only be because it believes the dollar can remain weak against its competitors.
Press conference was announced weeks ago. I'm looking more at it to be window dressing to project a more "caring" and "open" central bank after all of the valid criticism it has been up against. I don't expect any very specific answers except maybe in the area of future Bond purchases.
We may see a token rate increase to calm the easily calmed.
I expect a FED move to end QE. I believe a replacement is in the bullpen but won't be signaled out until most markets have taken a harsh beating and the resulting crisis (created by the FED) can be saved by the FED via more monetization. Nothing like a good crisis. It will take its toll on PMs but not as badly as in 08.
Current volitility in PMs is reflecting the confusion in the market over the FEDs next step. Volitility in my opinion is strictly paper based, but affects physical pricing. The wide spreads currently being witnessed are a result of investors making initial moves to collect profits ahead of the FED meeting. This is causing speculators to immediately follow suit at the first sign of a downward movement, resulting in large downward spikes. As soon as this happens the smart investor quickly backs up the truck and drives the price back up. Again the now large crowd of silver speculators see the buy movement and spikes it further upward. Hopefully the volitility will simmer by Friday and we can pick up where we left off. The speculators are here to stay, get used to wild swings.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
2. QE2 through June but no news on QE3.
3. Core inflation is still at 1% or less.
4. Our economy is built on a house of cards that a gentle breeze could crash in an instant.
Just kidding on the last one.
1. we blew it
2. we are in bigger trouble than we thought
3. Im resigning
4. there is no way out
5. return to the gold standard
6. the world should abandon the dollar as the reserve currency
7. we are returning the Declaration of independence... come and get us
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Yogi Berra
LMAO!!! That was a good one.
Who or what gives u the authority to print money? It's not in the constitution.
Brilliant!!!
We wouldn't have to pay for shipping their junk to the US, we wouldn't have to go through the big doo dah with selling treasuries and swapping dollars and meeting and all that carrying on everytime we need a loan...we could just let them print them and stick the bens in the vault. On the other hand, why don't we just give them the fed password and they can just grab as many digibuks as they want, keep their products and distribute them to the destitute western half of China courtesy of the US citizens, and the world becomes a better place. Happiness is...
If The Bernank and his wonderboys can figure out a way to get moderate inflation of 6-8% a year going I think the fed will go in with everything they can to make it happen. There are still a couple of Regional Fed managers who seem to be against this but I don't have much hope they can stop any plan he comes up with. He will say something like " the Fed remains committed to keeping inflation under control but that moderate inflation is ok and to be expected during this recovery".
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<< <i>So we won't know what Bernanke will say until tomorrow, but what is with the volatility today? >>
Profit taking caused by uncertainty. Uncertainty should end tomorrow but profit taking may remain, depending on the message received.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Shocking that silver is down big today while the dollar continues to taking a beating. Guess that signals some technical weakness where it was relative to even the lower dollar value. >>
Fundamentals for silver have not changed. Fear (profit taking) has changed. Percentage of speculators in the market has increased making it more volatile. Speculators can heavily influence price via paper without taking posession, expecially with SLV.
Think of silver really being where it should be when compared to a weak dollar; that's is its equilibrium and where it will return to. Anticipation of FED movement has all markets rattled. A smart investor will pick the bottom and go all in.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
My WAG at The Bernanke's statement:
ALL is pretty good.
Recovery is on track.
Inflation is controllable.
There will be no "QE3," but we will continue to "support the markets and the economy."
Interest rates will remain low for a long time.
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Metals should start upward movement tonight. If not, they
should pop up tomorrow, based on the fantasy that TB will paint.
OTOH, if enough folks believe what TB is going to say, PMs
could stall.
My suspicion is that TB will be perceived as a liar and/or a fool,
and that PMs will move up while he is talking.
..................................
<< <i>Heard from a former Fed-Cat on CNBC last night, 1) say that QE2 will end, 2) no QE3, 3) say that they will pay down reserves (by NOT using their assets-read gold), 4) hint at raising rates, 5) raise rates. This is a 5-step process that will take well into next year said the Fed-Cat. >>
so, if this happens, what most likely will happen to PMs? Wil they rise slow and steady?
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
When the dollar rally falters, then PM's should resume upward path.
roadrunner
Eventually:
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Then he'll vacuously talk about his "concerns" over how long price recovery "in some sectors" is taking.
Then he'll get on the "evil moneymaker" bandwagon and start vacuously trashing oil, gold, etc.
Might even here the "irrational exuberance" phrase (or something like) for PM's/oil.
Will then answer 5 questions in extreme monotone, with ridiculous lingo and FED-speak phrases...then sit down, blink vacuously a couple of times and end the NC.
Collective "huh?" will be heard...life will go on...FED will continue to eat its own poop...PM's will shoot up, and I'll still be thinking: "Why the heck did I have to sell all my silver last year?@!!"
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
and necessary to protect the Nation and its people. Rip out the connections between the
Government and the hidden power structure, restore what has been eliminated in protective
legislation, eliminate the Federal Reserve and stop playing policeman to the entire world. It
is about time we started to worry more about the state of our Nation, then controlling everything,
all the time every where.
Camelot
Note that this is a first ever press conference. Hopefully they won't remove testicles before allowing reporters admittance. The fact that is has been planned for some time now tells me that all of the answers to foreseen questions have been carefully prepared in order to portray whatever message is in the cards.
The only excitement might be a gutsy reporter catching him off guard. Maybe FOX hired Dr. Paul for the day!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The inflation.....that isn't............
The recovery.....that isn't...........
The QE.....that isn't...............
What I think the bernanke will say: "Nothing to see here. Move along."
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I would ask "The Bernanke":
Who or what gives u the authority to print money? It's not in the constitution.
The Bernank would say this to that "it has been done many times in the past", as justification as to why they can do it
Dang JCM, that sounds exactly like something he would say, very good
Then, a nice cigar, good liquor, maybe a fiist run movie and retire to his coffin.
I am taking the day off in preperation for Thursday's mint offerring. My sublime dog's await me......
Miles
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
2:15 PM, EST, Wednesday.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I think Storm probably saw BB speech. I believe he nailed it. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Local news is saying this is the first of 4 annual press conferences. So I'm guessing just another round of babbling economist word play. >>
It's a PR stunt to "improve" their image.
<< <i>Is the planned $600 billion in Treasury purchases in June, defined as QE2 or 3? >>
QE2. It ends in June and has been stretched out over the last months.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
roadrunner
<< <i>So no QE3, according to Bernanke >>
And yet the price of Gold and Silver keeps rising!
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
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1) No increase in interest rates.
2) Maintaining the balance sheet after QE2. This means when they stop creating money, they will use the loan proceeds and "reinvest" them by buying other bonds, treasuries, etc. which is equivalent to leaving the money in the economy. So, in other words, there will be no tightening of the money supply in the short term.
Arthur F. Burns set the stage for folks to get rich.
G. William Miller let folks get very rich.
Paul Volcker took away some of folks' riches.
Alan Greenspan let fleet-footed folks get VERY rich.
The Bernanke is letting smart folks get pretty rich.
If it becomes obvious that a changing of the guard is
inevitable, Volcker-days will return suddenly.
......................................
Congrats to the folks who acted presciently this morning.
..................................................
Even MOO popped a little while The Bernanke was talking.
"Transitory Inflation." Tell that to the folks who just wanna
buy a bowl of rice.
<< <i>He will say something like " the Fed remains committed to keeping inflation under control but that moderate inflation is ok and to be expected during this recovery".
Dang JCM, that sounds exactly like something he would say, very good
We have a winner! Datz exactly what he said........
Herb
Box of 20
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
1. Continue with loose money ZIRP policy
2. QE2 continues as planned
3. There will be no QE3
4. Fed bankers are still jaded and don't realize they're ruining the dollar
Interpretation:
PMs will still perform well. As inflation becomes more and more obvious, more people will flood safe havens.
To which I say, Fire his arse, and Geithner's while your at it, and impeach Obama.