What date do you predict the MS64-66 dollar market will turn?

truthteller

I say May 20th 2011. Just about the time all the silver dollars come back from economy service.

What say you?



TRUTH

WTCG

When some of the normally large volume buyers begin withdrawing their bids altogether is often a sign that demand is waning and price drops could be imminent.

Most dealers have been surprised by the size and speed of the recent price increases. Although amount of demand can change in an instant, the current demand for those coins is still incredibly strong as are the bids.

RedTiger

I am with Legend, the run has more to go. I didn't predict the explosion in prices, so how likely is it that I will predict the top? Predictions are for entertainment. Predicting tops is a low percentage play. There are about ten predicted tops for every top that occurs. As for the original post, most of the generic Morgans were slabbed when bulk rates at the companies were much lower. It costs much more to slab than say 10 years ago, so supply of new MS64 Morgans is likely limited.

I wonder about the quantities of gradeable Morgan out there. If raw coins are out there, many can be sold without slabbing for strong prices. Factor in the time, postage and grading fees, it still may not be worth it to send them in. If folks with rolls or bags are thinking the same as the original poster, that the top is imminent, they may not chance a month or two or three at a grading company and transit for bulk grading. That thinking can limit the number of coins being sent in. This isn't 1980 when MS65s were $500 and 99% of coins were still raw. I think this top will have more to do with demand than supply. When the promotion ends, prices will fall. Who can predict that? I guess the guys driving the bus on the promotion, and almost no one else.

ianrussell

Market is very deep on Morgans at the moment - I don't think it's going to change overnight either, providing silver is still so popular.

I think the biggest risk is if silver drops rapidly.

- Ian

fivecents

Look at the historical prices of generic Morgans during the 1979-1980 silver run up. The prices went way higher than their extreme high melt value price all the way to the Moon er...I meant to say Mars.

As long as silver stays high generic Morgans will bid be high and demand will be strong. JMHO though.

DennisH

Thursday April 26, 10:17 a.m.

LindeDad

My thoughts on a possible different answer.

I was setting here this morning enjoying the usual pot of coffee and thought of something. We all have been hearing about the counterfeit coins hitting the market. And what if the rise in price of the certified Morgan’s is a back lash from that as more dealers and collectors that in the past were buying RAW Morgan’s are now buying the certified coins out of fear of getting a counterfeit?

Seems to me that if there is a broad based increase in demand it would affect the price more than just a speculator or two working a promo. This I would think might mean that along with the silver content increase value might mean that the increase has more likely long term stay ability than many might think.

tahoe98

...i like what you said, syl