Better than gold.
cladking
Posts: 28,637 ✭✭✭✭✭
Sure I'm a huge fan of gold in times of inflation and expect to see the metal make
another run higher to a higher plateau in the relatively near term; before autumn
and possibly much before.
Of course I also believe silver is the best investment the average man can buy ever
in human history and it will be a very long time before a better one comes along.
Someday silver is going to experience panic buying that simply feeds on itself and
this might already be underway.
But incredibly there's a better investment than silver! It's not widely available but
almost anyone who chooses can find it and buy it; modern coins. The explosion in
modern world coins has already started and been in slow motion for fifteen years.
It's soon to go into hyperdrive. As world economies grow a lot more money is go-
ing to a lot more people and these are people who never really had money before.
Watch for everything to just take off. Of course old world coins will in many cases
do extremely well also but the supply for moderns is far thinner than people realize
and the potential demand is simply staggering.
Look at something like an Indian 1970 proof set with a mintage of 2900. Attrition
on these hasn't been been extremely high but it's far far higher than attrition on
even common old coins. There's .39 Ozt silver in it so some were destroyed in '79.
The silver coin is a two year type. The price of this set has always been laughably
low until only very recently so breaking it up for poundage wasn't out of the ques-
tion. These sets are mostly in basements and closets rather than safety deposit
boxes because they are bulky and cheap. They will not have survived well. It's
very unlikely that 400,000,000 new middle class Indians can't demand the mere
1800 or so of these that survive.
It won't be the precious metal moderns that are rare. It will mostly be cu/ ni and to
a lesser extent AL, CU, and other base metals. Stainless steel seems to be anoth-
er that people simply didn't save. These would wear for years in circulation before
showing wear so everyone probably figured there was no hurry.
Eventually this same demand will come to US coins. Whodda thunk it would hit the
rest of the world first?
another run higher to a higher plateau in the relatively near term; before autumn
and possibly much before.
Of course I also believe silver is the best investment the average man can buy ever
in human history and it will be a very long time before a better one comes along.
Someday silver is going to experience panic buying that simply feeds on itself and
this might already be underway.
But incredibly there's a better investment than silver! It's not widely available but
almost anyone who chooses can find it and buy it; modern coins. The explosion in
modern world coins has already started and been in slow motion for fifteen years.
It's soon to go into hyperdrive. As world economies grow a lot more money is go-
ing to a lot more people and these are people who never really had money before.
Watch for everything to just take off. Of course old world coins will in many cases
do extremely well also but the supply for moderns is far thinner than people realize
and the potential demand is simply staggering.
Look at something like an Indian 1970 proof set with a mintage of 2900. Attrition
on these hasn't been been extremely high but it's far far higher than attrition on
even common old coins. There's .39 Ozt silver in it so some were destroyed in '79.
The silver coin is a two year type. The price of this set has always been laughably
low until only very recently so breaking it up for poundage wasn't out of the ques-
tion. These sets are mostly in basements and closets rather than safety deposit
boxes because they are bulky and cheap. They will not have survived well. It's
very unlikely that 400,000,000 new middle class Indians can't demand the mere
1800 or so of these that survive.
It won't be the precious metal moderns that are rare. It will mostly be cu/ ni and to
a lesser extent AL, CU, and other base metals. Stainless steel seems to be anoth-
er that people simply didn't save. These would wear for years in circulation before
showing wear so everyone probably figured there was no hurry.
Eventually this same demand will come to US coins. Whodda thunk it would hit the
rest of the world first?
Tempus fugit.
0
Comments
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I've been doing it ever since Mao reformed the economy in about '79 or so. I've like
India even longer as well as North Africa. I bet wrong on South America and thought
Chile and Columbia would outpace Brazil. Australia, NZ and many of the Pacific islands
have also interested me.
I like Chinese cash but it might be too easily counterfeited to ever have much value
so I never paid much even for the scarcer issuues.
I especially like stuff from economies that have high value commodity exports and
large natural resources compared to their size and this goes double when the re-
sources are energy or metal. So many of the modern coins were made in small num-
bers and not saved. Even when mint sets were made the sets have not survived
because there was no interest but a lot of these coins never appeared in mint sets
so are quite scarce. People just don't seem to understand that a coin like a 1937
Fijian 1S can be bought all day long even though the mintage was only 40,000 be-
cause these coins were widely saved. Sure, we're talking only several thousand in
existence, if that, but they are out there and available for sale if you have the $80.
But try finding the equivalent 1973 Fijian 20c made in cu/ ni. It's not "worth" any-
thing and they aren't available. If you do find this coin it will be unattractive and pro-
bably poorly made. This coin shouldn't be too tough in low grade with a mintage of
250,000 but you're not going to find it in poundage because survivors are still circu-
lating. A few get carried home as souvenirs by visititors and this constitutes most
of the future supply.
This just applies for coins all over the world; people didn't save the coins. This has
left AU's as about the best you can hope to find. Nice attractive pristine coins can be
extremely tough. Millions of new collectors are finding that "easy" coins like a Span-
ish 1961 5P in AU is a hard to find.
Right now it's a mere handful of collectors seeking these coins. This will change. When
there are thousands or even hundreds of collectors reminicing about the old cu/ ni
100Y coins you'll see just how thin the supply of such coins really is. I spent decades
and never found an example of many of these fifty cent coins. I seriously doubt there
are going to be any coming out of the woodwork because I already looked there too.
over 100 fold and numerous ones over 200 fold. No one has any silver that has done better
than this and the increases in the base metal coins has gone virtually unnoticed even by coin
collectors and even by most world coin collectors.
In the next several years these increases are going to be noticed and they might be fueled
largely by the profits being made in silver bullion and coin.
It is fun, the down side is low and I agree it can be very profitable.
It's rather easy to hedge your bet too -
I typically snatch up any BU pieces I come across (in junk boxes etc.) under certain conditions:
- From up and coming economies, (you've mentioned a few of my favorites): India, China, Brazil, Russia the older the better, I go for stuff 30+ years old - though if it is gem BU and interesting I often make exceptions.
- 1900s-70s Gem BU Europe (still talking base metal and junk boxes)
- Gem BU British colonial
I typically don't collect base metal coins in AU and under - unless I know them to have value and even then almost never go below a pleasing AU.
I started in the late 90s - almost pre-internet, when base metal foreign coins had virtually no value (in the US). Those were the best days - but there is still a mountain on undervalued potential out there.
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<< <i>The trick is knowing which ones will rise and which will never (in my lifetimes) be worth the holder I put them in.
It is fun, the down side is low and I agree it can be very profitable.
It's rather easy to hedge your bet too -
I typically snatch up any BU pieces I come across (in junk boxes etc.) under certain conditions:
- From up and coming economies, (you've mentioned a few of my favorites): India, China, Brazil, Russia the older the better, I go for stuff 30+ years old - though if it is gem BU and interesting I often make exceptions.
- 1900s-70s Gem BU Europe (still talking base metal and junk boxes)
- Gem BU British colonial
I typically don't collect base metal coins in AU and under - unless I know them to have value and even then almost never go below a pleasing AU.
I started in the late 90s - almost pre-internet, when base metal foreign coins had virtually no value (in the US). Those were the best days - but there is still a mountain on undervalued potential out there. >>
Sounds a lot like my thinking. I used to trade the most valuable AU's I got for Uncs but
I made a lot of mistakes doing this. At the time I thought AU's would be coming out of
the woodwork for decades because they were taken home by tourists. But of course
there is only a short window for these to get taken home before they are worn down so
the total number often isn't very high. Also the Uncs can just go screamingly high priced
forcing some of the demand down to the AU's which aren't necessarily common either.
If I had it to do over I'd buy a few more AU's and hold onto most of them. Look at coins
like the mid-'50's Japanese 10Y. These go for pennies in AU and a couple hundred in nice
red BU.
I made some other mistakes too like selling my Italian 100L because I thought they were
overpriced. I virtually gave them away yet the prices are holding.
I do love silver of course and when they're nice gem world coins they can be irresistable.
Who could pass up nice choice 1951 Guatemalan 25c with a mintage of 11,000 for just
several dollars like they were in the '80's. They're probably still a steal at $70.
There are so many coins out thee that are very grossly underappreciated and they can't
stay that way. When millions of people start seeking hundreds of coins these moderns
are just going to blow up. It's already apparent that these coins are flowing out of the US
and back to the countries of issue. Collectors here still don't care and don't even know
that prices are booming.
<< <i>Good luck trying to find buyers for the modern foreign coins when you want to cash out. I've been down that road before. >>
Sure. These are thin markets now and this is a strike against them. But the supply is
much thinner and this isn't the 1970's any longer. People can buy and sell right on the
net. If dealers don't stock them, and they don't because there is such a thin market, it
doesn't matter because buyers can find them on the net and sellers can sell to specialist
dealer or sell on the net themselves.
These markets will mostly stay extremely thin in the US but they are going to just keep
growing in the countries of issue. Coins will flow out of the US for as many decades as
they flowed in. But the most dramatic thing that will be noticed about those going out
is that the scarce moderns just aren't there because they never got here in the first place.
Collectors just never cared for base metal coins and didn't save them. Instead they im-
ported vast numbers of things like 1953 Yugoslavian coins that were available extremely
cheap because of their very low denominations and very favorable exchange rates.
Most moderns are much scarcer than the older coins and sell at far lower prices. This
won't always be true as new demand develops. The moderns are already soaring and
there's simply no reason to believe it will stop since the trends all favor it from demograph-
ics to macroeconomic forces. It's like the tide coming in and it's not going to reverse.