Is the new adjusted price for ms Morgans justified?

DoubleEagle59

Just recently, greysheet increased the prices of Morgans quite a bit.

I just can't see paying $60 to $70 for an ms64 Morgan now. I think it's $190? for ms65's.

There's 'millions' of these coins in the Pop reports and I feel the high price of silver should just 'overtake' the price rather than bump it up.

What do you say?

I know I'm not buying.

blu62vette

60 to 70 on a 64 is a steal right now.

I think prices are crazy and it will crash at some point.

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>60 to 70 on a 64 is a steal right now.

I think prices are crazy and it will crash at some point. >>



Maybe that should read $60 for an ms63?

PTVETTER

Morgans have a long way to go to reach thier all time high!!!!

So let the prices rise the dollar currency is not looking so good at this point!

questor54

Prices will certainly go up and down as they have in the past. That is inevitable.

The question is not "are the Morgan dollars worth a certain amount of fiat currency?" - the question is "what is the fiat currency worth?"

I know 63-64-65 Morgans are laughably common - but that is only true given the current demand structure for them. If the Chinese get an appetite for them, or if a few rich hoarders get that same appetite - they are gone in a flash.

I don't feel like adding up population numbers right now, but let's error on the high side and say there are 10,000,000 PCGS and NGC 63-64-65 Morgans available. Let's say they sell for an average of $125 each accross those three grades. Total value? About $1.2 billion. Peanuts. There are plenty of INDIVIDUALS on the planet who could write a check for that amount and not miss it.

Sometimes we forget the coin market is very very very small.

Shortgapbob

The wholesale market on these is very, very real on these right now. Wholesale bidders are currently paying $95 on the MS-64s and $205 on the MS-65s. Who knows what the future will bring.

Steve27

This is the first time in years common dates in modest MS grades have gone up, so yes it appears justified (and I expect it to continue if silver continues to rise).

TwoSides2aCoin

Adjusting the prices is publishing what the market appears to be doing. What matters most is the "BUY" price. Show us the coins we can buy for less than the adjusted prices and the prices will go even higher. (my neophyte opinion of Morgans)

DoubleEagle59

All good answers......

Maybe a better question to ask is at what grade of a common date Morgan would you pay a premium over silver?

Would an ms63 be worth only bullion?

I'm thinking start the premium for Morgans at ms64 and up.

roadrunner

There are possibly 1-2 million of common date 63/64 Morgans slabbed between NGC and PCGS. I'd cut the current pops in half due to resubmissions. It would take $200 MILL
to buy up all the 63's and 64's ever graded. That's not a huge amount of money considering billionaries are in abundance. But those 1-2 million coins can't be
just plucked off the market in one fell swoop. It takes time. If you toss in the 65's to 67's as well it still falls way under $1 BILL. That's less than 6 hours of present govt spending.
It took 25 yrs of grading to make those 1-2 million coins. How long would it take to replace them if 50% of the market were removed? How many orig choice BU Morgan bags are
still out there to supply that need? Are there 1000 good quality bags readily available to be sent in for grading?

While they are "common," is there a competing world crown out there from the 1878-1921 era that can compete on price with a Morgan? I think the history behind them was
unusual in that too many were made, and then inadvertently saved in bank vaults. A comparable coin from any other leading nation would probably cost hundreds to thousands
of dollars. The $20 Saint is also in that same category too. Many saved in choice unc condition as they were shipped to oversea's vaults in the 1930's. The Morgan still sells for 2X
to 3X spot and the Saint at 15-22% over spot. Common BU wheat cents bring a much higher premium.

If there is a competing world crown to the Morgans that costs under $100 in choice unc condition let us know. We'll start buying those too.

One cannot compare current prices to the all time highs in Morgans reached during the 1986 slabbing days. Those coins were brutally graded and would be 1-2 pts higher today
on average....imho. The MS65's that were fetching $500-$700 when PCGS first opened were full blown gems. Plus there was no supply in the market and the high starting prices
reflected that. By early 1990 MS65's were down to $300 each and not of the same quality as the fall 1986 coins. I recall loading up on some MS64 Morgans in March 1990 with
many in rattler holders. They cost $100 at the time. Most would probably grade MS65 today.

Yes, prices could crash back from here. But what would they do if silver went to $100+ on the next major move up?

roadrunner

RedTiger

If culls are selling strong for $35, it is easy to see how the prices align. Anyone in the hobby for any length of time might remember culls selling for $4 or $5 or $7. Even just a year ago culls were like $14. My theory is that some of the big telemarketer firms that typically sell gold coins are promoting generic Morgans. Those firms do huge dollar volume. I would think it an easy sell for a smooth talking telemarketer to sell to folks wanting to buy numismatic silver. Another point of evidence is that premiums on classic gold coins are currently low. Heritage and Legend both mentioned the low premiums over melt value for classic gold. This means it is likely the firms have switched from pitching classic gold coins to generic Morgans.

It must be galling for all those with better date Morgans, and other numismatic gems of all stripes, that the widget Morgans are running so strong. The fact that better date Morgans aren't really participating in this run indicates that it is probably outside channels driving the price on the commons, not collector demand. One rumor I read on the forum, is that it is a single person that wants 100,000 of the Morgans slabbed in 63/64. I still think it is the telemarketers, because they could turn 100,000 coins in a good week. Maybe it is both. Whatever the case, the horse is off and running, and will be hard to get back to the stable.

roadrunner

With the total amount graded at 1-2 million, selling 100,000 per week won't last long. These prices have already been up at higher levels for 2 months or more.
They certainly won't be able to keep on supplying 100,000 coins per week unless 200-300 fresh silver dollar bags are showing up at PCGS and NGC each week.
If they're 1880-1882 "S" mint bags, the recovery ratios should be high. If they are P and O mint bags, the quality is usually closer to MS62 on average. It would be
very interesting to know how many bags or 1/2 bags are showing up at PCGS and NGC.

At $100/oz silver down the road, these Morgans won't look like such bad deals at $65-$100 per coin. Assuming of course silver gets there.
And at $100+ per pop it's sort of nice to have your ASE substitute in a nice certified package where it can be displayed and not get damaged. If it comes to the
point where ASE's are hard to get.....oops....(we're there already)......then Morgan and Peace dollars make a worthy substitute as do the $20 Saints for an AGE.
If people were willing to shell out $1,000 for a cleaned "shipwreck effect" seated half dollar in XF/AU (about 10X their unattributed market value), then $100 for a
choice unc Morgan, a wild west frontier relic, is certainly reasonable. As common as unc silver dollars are to us in the coin hobby, they are rarities to the rest of
nation and the rest of the world. What crown size silver coin competes with them that's 100-130 yrs old? While a MS64 Morgan at $100 may seem overpriced to
some, what do they say about paying $50 for an ASE? Circ wheat pennies at 3c each are overpriced too then (ie Morgans and Saints are cheaper per % intrinsic value).

Yes Red Tiger, the collectors of rarer date Morgans must be fuming. And to think you could have loaded up on MS65 Morgans for $75 each back around 2002-2003
when they last bottomed. 64's were about half that price. No one really wanted them. Now they are "loved" once again after 20 yrs of being a door mat. Everyone
that was here in the forum in the 2001-2004 era had the opportunity to load up on silver in various formats. It was the 2nd chance in 50 yrs to ride such a wave. I for one
never saw this run in slabbed Morgans coming. Never even dreamt it. What is odd is that the unslabbed solid MS64's or 63's won't fetch anything near the price of the slabs.
And unless you are bulk submitting, it's just not feasible to take a chance on shot 63-64 coins. Wonder if that will change?

roadrunner

BAJJERFAN

I see a box of 20 63s in old 2.5 holders recently went for over $1500.

halfhunter

This time last April I was talking to a dealer at the Dalton GNA show. He was telling me what a screaming deal 64 Morgans were. Started buying all I could afford at $40 instead of buying bullion that I had gone there intending to buy. PCGS, NGC all solid for the grade. Even bought a handful of super nice, undergraded IMO, DGS 64s. Bought more in August and September. at $45 & 50 . . . As it now stands, even with the Greysheet increases, I would have came out way ahead just buying bullion ! ! !

HH

johnny9434

that crash is gonna hurt when it does happen

keets

MS63 Morgans aren't particularly attractive coins, MS64' aren't much ahead of that and when you consider that the bulk of these are very common easily found coins it's tough to justify the price increase.........................unless you consider that it might/must/could be driven by telemarketing type stuff. is it my imagination, but hasn't the forum membership always considered that entity to be a bad thing?? i can't envision collectors suddenly buying these coins for the higher prices but maybe i'm wrong and that's what is happening.

can any dealers comment on this-----are you noticing an increase in collectors at shows or your shop with a sudden interest in buying common date Morgan Dollars in MS63 and MS64 grades??

keets

If culls are selling strong for $35, it is easy to see how the prices align.

i'm not sure i agree with this. culls typically sell right around spot, they're sort of viewed like a Silver Round except they aren't .999 fine.

questor54

<< <i>that crash is gonna hurt when it does happen >>



You mean the crash of the U.S. Dollar?

keets

i think he means the crash of the prices for these common date Morgans. the dealers are selling them at $60-$70 now and when prices come down with Bullion they'll be at half that level again.

291fifth

I agree with you.

It is time for many common Morgans to have their day of reckonning with the melting pot!

fivecents

April 15 greysheet common Morgans:

MS64...$91
MS63...$63
MS60...$40
Crash is prices coming soon.............................NOT!!!!!!!!!!!