Proof 70DCAMS - The Message In The Entrails

Typetone

Here's my serious discussion topic for the weekend.

In the last few months we have had several threads on 70DCAMs. Are they real 70s? Are they overpriced/underpriced? Where are they? Etc. After pondering all responses, looking at a group of them and buying one or two, I have come to some conclusions. What do you think?

First, it appears that several years ago PCGS was somewhat liberal with the 70DCAM designation. Maybe in response to ICG, maybe some other reason. Many of those made were true 70DCs, and frankly, many were not. How do I know? Well I have visual evidence and testimony from members of this Board that many are overgraded. The 70DCAM IKEs for example. However I own two that are beautiful and flawless (under a 5X glass, the written PCGS standard), and Board members have also testified that they own flawless pieces.

Second, it appears that about three years ago, PCGS slammed the door on new 70DCAMs. The number made has slowed to a trickle. I am told (not by PCGS) that there is now a microscope examination before a 70DCAM is issued. Perhaps they realized they were being too liberal, and were concerned that they would have too buy many back. We know they have had to buy some IKE proofs back.

The result appears to be that some wonderful proofs that are receiving the 69DC designation might really be 70s under the 5X test, and might well have made it under the previous regime. So, the real 70s out there are some of the current 69s, the few current 70s, and some of the old 70s. The real 69s are most of the current 69s, some of the old 70s, and many of the old 69s.

How about price? As collectors (both of plastic and real collectors) realized that the number of 70DCAMs is limited by the new standards, prices exploded. From about $100 a few years ago, common date 70DCAMs of any denomination now start at about $350 and go up from there.

My conclusion is that purchasing 70 DCAMs has a lot of risk right now. PCGS could return to the written 5X standard. If they do, the number of 70DCAMs will certainly multiply, both from new mint production, and from crackouts. Or, modern (1970 and on) proof collecting might lose its luster, and the prices could fall regardless. Finally, as we know many of the existing 70DCAMs don't really make the grade. The prices of these could fall under a number of scenarios, and they might turn out to be less than marketable even without increased supply. I know I have turned down several, and I would suspect others will begin to do the same as they start to decide to buy the coin and the holder, and not just the holder. So, if you are buying them now, make sure you can recognize a 70 when you see it.

Here's what I expect to do. To the extent I buy modern proofs I will buy the best 69 PCGS DCAMs I can find. They aren't that expensive, and if I am good at it they will be the upgrade candidates when PCGS begins to again make 70s. I will buy an occassional 70, if the quality really merits and the price is right. The fact is that most offerings miss one of those tests. I might consider some ICG 70DCAMS (haven't done so yet). They are less expensive and many of them (not all or even most) might qualify under the original 5X standard. They will be the crossover candidates of the future. I do not plan to buy NGC 70s. They are rather expensive. While they might be future crossover candidates, their prices could decline if PCGS decides to resume production. Or, I will just wait until PCGS production resumes and buy them then.

This strategy will not get me to number one in the modern proof registry any time soon. That honor will go to those who figured out they should buy 70s three years ago for under $100. I guess I can live with that and get back to working on Liberty Nickels et all.

Cheers

Greg S.

The Ever Ponderer

wondercoin

Greg: As usual, well thought out and analyzed. BTW, if you would like me to handpick you a nice PCGS-PR70DCAM Kennedy half, just PM me after reviewing my recent thread Wondercoin.

CarlWohlforth

Good analysis. Thanks for going into that much detail. I too have pondered this question.

I had several proof Jeffs downgraded. The remaining ones look flawless to me. If others downgrade the worst ones and PCGS remains tight the prices should hold.

Since some 69s look flawless to me too that is what I'll buy. With my attitude and budget I will never get to #1 in the 20'th century or complete type sets. That is fine by me.

I don't think PCGS will loosen up on 70s in the future. If they do they won't cross ICG coins. There might be one or two ICG coins out there that really are 70s. These would need cracking out. After all you can't get a slab under a microscope can you? This is the only area where I disagree with you Greg, I wouldn't waste time looking at ICGs.

I haven't looked at a NGC 70, but can't see paying much of a premium for those either.

fantasiize

Greg,

Again, you have equalled/exceeded my label of the "ever ponderer" ...

In my opinion and to save me some time/frustration, I use the following logic for 70DCAMs :

If date is less than 1965, probably not,
If coin is equal or greater in size to a Kennedy half, probably not ... remember, all other halves were prior to 1965, that is why I use the Kennedy
If coin is equal to or smaller than a SBA, maybe,
If grading service PCGS, NGC, ANACS, maybe, all other grading companies ... probably to most defenitely not

So to summarize, PCGS, NGC, ANACS, 1965 or later, cents, nickels, dimes, quarters, and SBA's, you have a small chance, so take out your glass and have fun assessing. Kennedies and Ikes, be prepared to be disappointed or spend an awful lot of time & $.

supercoin

A problem with all the 70s now is that they are forever "tainted", i.e. you never know if you're going to get a good one or a good one.

There is a simple way to fix this, as I mentioned on some previous thread. PCGS could put a 6-month moratorium on downgrading 70s... turn 'em in now or forever hold your "piece". All 70's graded from this point forward would be in a different holder, so you know they're "real". But, this would require PCGS admitting they made a policy change, and shelling out tons of bucks, neither of which is likely to happen.

The second-best solution I think is for PCGS to drop the standard a bit. You'd then have a larger supply of PR70s which would keep prices more reasonable, and low- and high-end examples within there.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen, especially if modern proof submissions drop off because nobody's making any "money" grades any more. It would also of course greatly reduce PCGS' liability on current overgraded PR70s, because the market value would be lower.

Bottom line with PCGS 70s is that no matter how you slice it, the value of the coin/label is highly dependent on current and future PCGS policy. More so than on the coins themselves. *



* As always, not to be construed as investment advice. PR70s have performed very well financially for those who have ignored my advice in the past.

DHeath

You guy's analysis proves again why you're top tier collectors. I never cease to be impressed with the well reasoned logic. I collect moderns, and love Ikes and Kennedys and made a reasoned decision last year not to purchase PR70s not only because of the volatility, but also because quality issues beyond the range of the naked eye don't matter much to me anyway. None of my keeper coins were intended to be resold , and the registry is fun, but if it takes magnification to discern between two sets, then both are extremely nice and desireable. It's hard to imaging one being worth multiples of the other in this scenario. I'll spend the difference buying more coins and building my collection.

Monstavet

For what it is worth, this is the strategy I have adopted already, Greg, after coming to almost the same conclusions. On the one hand, the simple supply and demand should keep pcgs 70 prices high, but I think over time, people will realize that they are "tainted" in a sense. Thus, there is risk that prices will drop. For me, the Registry is fun, and it serves as a way for me to track my sets, and compare to other nice sets out there, but I do not get overly competitive about it. When I finished my Kennedy set, I knew I could not be higher than #7 without playing the PR70 game...it is a mathematical impossibility. Such is life, I got over it and moved on. Am trying to finish Jeff proofs now, and will face a similar scenario once some of top sets are 100% complete.

Because of the problems with the policy shift at PCGS, the recent announcement regarding the awards for the finest sets is a little nauseating to me - at least with regards to modern proofs and type sets. Obviously, some of the classic series are not affected by this debate, and by all means give out an award for these sets. But any set involving modern proofs will be tainted. Is it fair? No, not really, but get over it and move on, I guess! Again, I love the Registry, but if I am not in the top5, so be it. I love the coins, and I love collecting them.

For my type sets, I am trying to get first year of issue examples only. This may mean that I have to sacrifice some grade points, because the first year of issue may not have the highest grade available (example 1959 proof lincoln). But to me, it is important to have the nicest example I can find for the first year of issue. Again, I will never be the highest, or even top5, but it is a lot of fun finding the coins. If you want to play the #1 set game and you have money to spend, go for it. Collect what you want, the way you want, and don't worry so much, right?

keithdagen

Greg,

I think you have nailed the approach. Take the coin that gives you the best value for your money. I have a seen a few solid 70DC's, but I have seen even more that were 69's in overrated plastic. The difference's between a 68, a 69, and a 70 can be so miniscule that sometimes, the premium just isn't worth it.

Keith

supercoin

Well... guess which of these is a PR68DCAM, and which is (or was) a PR70DCAM:

Eisenhower Dollar 1972-S PCGS Proof

Eisenhower Dollar 1978-S PCGS Proof

Hint: It's a trick question.

fantasiize

Tad,

"Psyching" us out eh ?

OK, before I read your "hint", I would have said the 78 was the 70DCAM and the 72 was the 68DCAM. However, given your hint and considering that 2 out of the 3 70DCAM Ikes that I have seen were 72's, I would have to ... call a friend or poll the audience ...

Chris

BTW, I would not have graded any of the ones I have seen 70DCAM

BTW some more, as I have said numerous times in the past, there are no true 70DCAMs Ikes, just some good 69DCAMs surrounded by pure grade hardened Arab oil (aka slab)

keithdagen

The 78 is the 68DC. Too many of the Silver proofs have the hazy toning and spotting, regardless of the grade. Those are very hard to find in true spot-free, haze-free 69DC.

Keith

supercoin

Man, tough crowd to convince.

Here are some silver proofs that stack up well to many PR69s...

Eisenhower Dollar 1971-S Peg Leg PCGS PR68 DCAM

Eisenhower Dollar 1976-S Silver PCGS PR67 DCAM

In my experience the differentiation between the upper grades is usually more about hairlines than haze, though spots will of course take 'em down.

And hairlines often have very little effect on eye appeal, particularly once the coin is holdered. Personally, I'd take a nice deep cameo haze-free coin with a few hairlines over a technically more perfect PR69 with marginal cameo or haze.

Typetone

Tad:

I will guess the 78S is the 68DCAM. With only one 78S graded 70DC I am willing to bet you haven't handled it, while I know you have handled some 72S 70s. Otherwise the two look comparable to me except for the haze on the 72S. And as you say, haze doesn't seem to faze PCGS graders.

Greg S

supercoin

Yep, the 72S is (was) the PR70DCAM. Note also that the reverse cameo on the 72S is weak, fading on the eagle and the moon. Especially considering the date is readily found with strong cameo.

I just sold a 69DCAM on eBay for a paltry $62.00 that's nicer.

In other words, don't put too much faith in those 1-pt proof differences meaning much as far as eye appeal.