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Poll for those that think they read enough: QE3?

derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
As QE2 winds down in June, no near planned economic decision will have more impact on the price of PMs than the decision to continue flooding the markets with "new" money. For those that try to follow the topic, what is your CURRENT opinion on the possibility of QE3? For those that don't feel they are informed enough to make an EDUCATED guess, please refrain from voting as it will only skew the poll.

At the current time I'm going with number 3. Reason for this is that I'm interpreting the Fed's lates moves and comments as an indication that it wants to wind things down. However, I also feel there will be such a negative shock to all markets the Fed will have no choice but to reverse course and bring it on.

For those that don't think they know enough about QE, I highly recommend that you read all you can. An end to QE could spell big touble to all markets, including PMs, in the short term and possibly longer.

"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

Comments

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Comments on your choice are more than welcome.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • RedHerringRedHerring Posts: 2,077 ✭
    QE3 no later than October. Fall is a tough season for equities and there's nothing like a few hundred billion USD to liven things up. image
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,117 ✭✭✭✭✭
    QE3 announced by the end of April.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    QE3 already in progress behind the scenes.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    Talking heads & TBTF will find a new way to put it in action under another name.
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608 ✭
    In my blog, I recently quoted Barry Ritholtz. His take is that the Bank of Japan has already injected a near equivalent of QE3 into the financial system via their post-earthquake moves.

    As for the Fed, my guess would be not immediately, but some half measures later in the year. Bernanke likes that printing press, and will not give it up easily. Like others have said, it may not be called QE3, but it will have similar policies.

    In any case, guessing the news and trading on that guess, is a losing game for small fish. Even if they manage to guess the news right, they often guess the market reactions wrong. More important is to watch price and volume before the news event, during, and after. That tends to much more useful than guessing the news, unless a person has real inside info, and virtually zero small fish have that edge.

    As for reading, I continue to recommend "Curious George." Better to be to understand the monkey and be on his good side before the market makes a monkey out of you.

    Investment blog: gold, stocks and more
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    QE3 to immediately follow. My tagline says so. image
  • yellowkidyellowkid Posts: 5,486 ✭
    QE3 is inevitable, the government is on dope and won't get off until forced too.image
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    The wages of J6P are stagnant. J6P really needs some QE himself.

    i do read some. i voted 3

    RR has probably hit the nail, but he understands things that make my brain cramp
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Part of what I was implying by QE3 in progress is what Japan is already doing. There is plenty more coming from all over the world. Now QE can be delivered under the guise of
    helping Japan and other nations rebuild following significant events. After the Middle East and Northern Africa finish making a mess of things, plenty of money will be funneled there
    to "rebuild." Toss the PIIGs, etc. into the mix too. There will be no shortage of necessary QE. Only that term will be banned as it suggests fraud. But this next stage could be technically called "QED" (short for "quod erat demonstrandum" - that which was to be demonstrated or proven)....QE Done! Or as Larry the Cable guy would say, "get 'er QE done!"

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
    David Galland from Casey Research just made the case that they will stop or wind down QE2 in June in order to evaluate it's impact, and that the resulting cutoff of the flow of funds will set up a huge buying opportunity. He thinks that the startup of QE3 could be anywhere from 3 months to 2 years.

    Of course that means a stock market whammy, taking gold stocks along with it. Hence a buying opportunity in gold stocks.

    Is it me, or are the swings becoming more pronounced and erratic?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you voted number 4 here's a good primer on the topic from Casey Research who agrees with number 3:

    short-term cash, and get your shopping list ready


    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

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