Will we see a big dip by summer?

akuracy503

Silver $35, Gold $1385

Will we see it happen by June?
What is the long term affect of it happening versus not happening?

DoubleEagle59

I for one cannot believe that there hasn't been a correction to the $30 level yet for silver.

Check out the 5 and 10 year charts for silver.

The past 6 months has been a 'vertical' line on these charts.

This cannot be maintained.

I'm definitely liking the daily increases in Silver, but I am preparing myself (both mentally and financially) for the coming correction.

ttown

The problem I see with any of these corrections is only paper silver sells for that price. They are either out, back-ordered for months for the best deals, and it's 4 or 5 dollars an ounce over it's paper price quote. This buy on the dips is getting harder all the time.

Justacommeman

<< <i>Silver $35, Gold $1385

Will we see it happen by June?
What is the long term affect of it happening versus not happening? >>



Pulling back to those prices would just be a blip and not a dip. a real pullback would be healthy but not essential. This is what makes this interesting. MJ

Justacommeman

Come to think about it gold could hit $1385 and silver $35.00 tomorrow. That kind of move wouldn't be that far fetched (only a 3% drop for gold). Neither would suffer any serious technical chart damage. Especially silver.................MJ

jmski52

If those big drops do occur, there will be enough people burned that the number of posters here will drop by 25%. But that won't stop silver and gold. Things just aren't going to get fixed, at least not in the right ways.

akuracy503

$1385 and $35 seem to be the support levels at this point, if met could be indicators of a shift or trend?

My guess is that we won't see the support levels, I would have imagined the sell off happening the last 2 weeks with raised margins, global news and some shakedown market days that would have scared off some.

Every market player i've spoken with has been impressed with silver's strong backbone the last several weeks.

derryb

big dip, like we saw in 2008, coming to PMs (and all markets) when QE2 expires and there is no more QE. If a QE3 is announced before QE2 ends in June then we should see no shock to the markets. If there is a delay between the end of QE2 and the announcement of QE3 then all markets, including PMs will take a very big hit. A PM drop, like 2008, will be temporary, but not short lived.

jmski52

big dip, like we saw in 2008, coming to PMs (and all markets) when QE2 expires

I agree.

....and there is no more QE.

I can't imagine a world without QE3. Just think for a moment the level of screaming and kicking we will see when the stock market and all of that equity goes up in smoke a 2nd time.

If a QE3 is announced before QE2 ends in June then we should see no shock to the markets.

The gold and silver markets will react to that news, however.

If there is a delay between the end of QE2 and the announcement of QE3 then all markets, including PMs will take a very big hit.

Likely, in my opinion.

A PM drop, like 2008, will be temporary, but not short lived.

Just long enough to build a nice, strong base for the next leg up.

Justacommeman

<< <i>If those big drops do occur, there will be enough people burned that the number of posters here will drop by 25%. But that won't stop silver and gold. Things just aren't going to get fixed, at least not in the right ways. >>



Nope. The pm naysayers and all that missed the move will come out of the woodwork all giddy. These type posters will be up 25% to pick up the slack. Remember, when silver pulled back recently to $34.30? It was going to fall straight to $22.The silver bullet was derailed. People were thrilled they sold at the high. It's fickle beast, this silver. Gold has been sleepy. For how long?

Giddy in either direction can blind you............MJ

derryb

<< <i>Remember, when silver pulled back recently to $34.30? It was going to fall straight to $22.The silver bullet was derailed. People were thrilled they sold at the high. It's fickle beast, this silver. >>


While 60% of my assets are in silver, I'm not ruling out $22 silver in the intermediate term. A perfect storm with the QE's could force it, even if temporarily. The intermediate future of PMs will be determined by the QE3 question. The long term future has already been decided. QE confusion could create a very good selling opportunity followed by an even better buying opportunity.

Justacommeman

Derry, I couldn't care less if silver hit $22 or $42 in the interim. I was only commenting on board reaction.............in either direction. MJ

cohodk

The 200dma on silver is about $25. So a 30% drop--which happens to silver almost annually--is entirely possible, but would have relatively little impact on the chart pattern. However a 30% drop from here is now "real money" so many would have a bitter taste in their mouth---blood.

57loaded

i agree with above about a dip, who knows how deep or how long. unless QEIII is scheduled

with prices going up ( i guess that means inflation and wages flat at best ) more QE spells disaster.

however, "i'm a believer" that the stock market will suffer after a period of time after QE II ends, again who knows how long.

...and in reality that is the only thing holding the economy from a technical collapse. once the stock markets dive, there will be no option left but to QE III and then all will know the smoke and mirrors, and probably all heck will break loose

i am gutless to sell even some PM and wait for this though. i will probably sell some other assests to have a roll ready or just have more cash on the sideline.

i am not a trader in the commodities or currencies

edit...just read cohodk post above and yeah the 200 DMA and a 30% drop would be scary to many.

roadrunner

QE3 is already in progress around the world, particularly with respect to Japan. While an "officially" named QE3 might not appear until June or later, it's already here.
Doesn't anyone still consider $100 BILL per month in TBonds a form of continuing QE? It's the same general size as the monthly QE2 payments.

There is always a significant dip in PM's between May to July. Just a matter of how big.

roadrunner

KUCH

If you read Martin Armstrong, he says we need a high March and LOW June (gold), to keep PM's moving up on his target dates. Interesting read and I'm not an economist or chart pro. So, if we have a correction with a June Low, I'm ok with that cause I've got to depend on the advice of the pros!

I read and study all I can, then formulate my own opinions.

The knowledge here on the PM forum is golden. No pun intended.

jmski52

QE3 is already in progress around the world, particularly with respect to Japan.

Yep, Japan has no choice but to sell Treasuries or to create more Yen to finance their rebuilding. Who knows how bad Japan is going to be hit when the bills roll in? Their disaster isn't even half over.

While an "officially" named QE3 might not appear until June or later, it's already here. Doesn't anyone still consider $100 BILL per month in TBonds a form of continuing QE? It's the same general size as the monthly QE2 payment.

For hacks like me, I never really keep track of, or make any distinctions between the various types of government financings. But since you've brought this one to my attention, what IS the distinction between TBond sales and QE2 payments? I keep having this foreboding thought that it will all end badly - nobody even knows how money gets created, or where it comes from as long as they have a source of income.

Except that the bankers and politicians do know.

derryb

<< <i>QE3 is already in progress around the world, particularly with respect to Japan. While an "officially" named QE3 might not appear until June or later, it's already here.
Doesn't anyone still consider $100 BILL per month in TBonds a form of continuing QE? It's the same general size as the monthly QE2 payments.

There is always a significant dip in PM's between May to July. Just a matter of how big.

roadrunner >>


To me, at least, QE3 is a reference to the Fed's third attempt at saving something (I still haven't quite figured out what). QE1, the bailout of the banks and freddie/fannie didn't do the rest of the economy any good, so QE2 was developed to pump money into the stock market via treasury bonds. While that has succeeded in fueling speculation in most all assets, the question remains "do they stop when scheduled and watch the markets crash or do they try something new (QE3)?" I see them having no choice if they want to keep the markets at levels they really shouldn't be at.

While I agree the rest of the "un"civilized world is flooding their own economies with fiat currency, I see QE3 as strictly a US question that still remains formally unanswered. The current $100 billion a month going to TBonds from the Fed is QE2, scheduled to come to a halt in June.

Nothing will be truely fixed until markets are allowed to find their own natural equilibrium (as the housing market is currently doing regardless of attempts to prevent it). Look for all markets to eventually react in this manner. True market forces are naturally occuring and will always eventually override efforts to manipulate any given market. This is always painful but necessary and eventually results in a better economic enviornment than the one provided by "false" markets that are "propped up" or "manipulated down" by government intervention. True market forces of supply and demand can be temporarily altered with intervention's false supply and false demand, but the true forces always conquer. The longer they fight the battle the more painful the outcome. This is why government intervention on markets must be brought to a halt as soon as possible.