Silver topping?

Mesquite

Moriarty thinks a silver top is near. This too is worth a look and a thought.

derryb

Well, he did specify "temporary top."

Mesquite

No question about that - look for buying opportunities. Only problem is knowing when the correction has nearly bottomed.

TheRegulator

My last silver purchase was a couple 10oz Engelhards during the last week of January. Silver was in the 27 range. I just have a hard time buying at these prices, even though I believe it still represents a good value and will be higher in the future. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping that there will be a significant dip. We shall see...

Weiss

Yeah, I'm kind of in limbo too. I've gone from 10 to 100 oz a week to one or two to keep in practice. Silver goes to $50 or $60 an ounce I won't be kicking myself for not buying. Silver goes to $25 or $20 I won't be kicking myself for not selling. So here I sit...

Bear

It will make one more run towards 39, then fail and slide back.

Monday should be interesting.

HonoluluDude

Doesn't feel like a top to me. Feels more like a desperate crowd waiting to buy the effing dip.

akuracy503

I think we've all been spoiled and am all looking for the good ol' days prices.
I too have stacked well during the January early February timeframe, it has been nothing but trying to catch a fast moving train since.

I think the support level has been strong and won't see a slide below $35.

ufdah

I think silver perhaps has another couple weeks at 38 or so.....but im usually wrong. I buy my gold in bars or coins it doesnt matter to me, however silver is different there are ways to hedge somewhat against the cellar collapsing on you, I always buy my silver in Maples that way they still hold some collectors value, and I seek out low mintage years, i.e. 1997 Charleton Standard has only a little over 100,000 mintage on the Canadian Maple 1oz silvers, they were selling for around 32 dollars when silver was only worth 14 an ounce. Alot of dealers in my town dont really care about Canadian or Foreign bullion they just sell it for the spot price plus usually 3 dollars, and with alot more people selling thier silver I have picked up about 7 or 8 of the 97 Maples in the last month. The key is to be smart with silver and you wont get burned too bad, but PM's can be a crap shoot anyhow.

CaptHenway

<< <i>It will make one more run towards 39, then fail and slide back.

Monday should be interesting. >>



Monday is always interesting
(unless you are Garfield the cat)

chumley

by august the settled in price will be $40

jmski52

Silver was topping at $21.00/oz. That's what I remember hearing.

timrutnat

Moriarty says a lot of things. I've kept track of a lot of his stock picks....some have done well and some have done terrible. You predict enough things eventually you will be right. Even if silver corrects here how low will it go? And if it goes below $30, will anyone be selling for that price? I don't understand what Moriarty's agenda is by always being negative on silver. He touts silver mining companies and tells how the dollar is a piece of toilet paper and then at the same time likes to trash the silver bugs. It's people like Jim Sinclair and Eric King who help this community...not people like that foul-mouthed Moriarty.

ufdah

What is the deal with silver anyways? I keep hearing its been kept down for nearly a decade. And on Moneyline last week a guy was writing about the 16-1 ratio between silver and gold over the last century...can anyone expound on that theory? I guess my question is with silver it seems no one really knows what to do with it right now (or for the last decade) does ANYONE have any solid and rational theories on why silver is so contraversial? You read one artical and silver is gonna tank, the next day you hear how its gonna soar to over 100 dollars an ounce, why the variance in opinions and what are two people looking at to get total opposite conclusions from the same data????

jmski52

What is the deal with silver anyways? I keep hearing its been kept down for nearly a decade. And on Moneyline last week a guy was writing about the 16-1 ratio between silver and gold over the last century...can anyone expound on that theory? I guess my question is with silver it seems no one really knows what to do with it right now (or for the last decade) does ANYONE have any solid and rational theories on why silver is so contraversial? You read one artical and silver is gonna tank, the next day you hear how its gonna soar to over 100 dollars an ounce, why the variance in opinions and what are two people looking at to get total opposite conclusions from the same data????

I remember in the mid-1970s that silver was seen as having potential because the government stockpile was being phased out and that production wasn't keeping up with consumption. The projections were such that a silver shortage was inevitable within a decade or so. That was 35 years ago.

The 16:1 ratio was based on historical ratios and I believe it was codified into law with Bland-Allison in 1878. I may be wrong on that. Either way, that ratio has never really been stable, and in recent times the number has been much higher - either because silver was undervalued or gold was overvalued, take your pick.

I think that part of the confusion is that industry data is kept secret, in spite of what shows up as "public data". Mining companies don't need the government in their faces all the time, but at the same time - they need investors in their capital-intensive business. In addition, their assets don't remain static - they are depleted as time goes by. All that makes for alot of guesswork in valuations for mining operations and also (in my opinion) for actual production numbers and inventory positions.

I think that the street price for physical silver bullion is its own best indicator.

CaptMorgan

Its only going up in my opinion.

fivecents

Silver will dive on Monday because I just bought a bunch of ASEs on the BST. My system never fails.

cladking

Chart action actually does look a little toppy but the chart can't reflect macroeconomic
factors nor the performance of other assets during the same period. In the larger pic-
ture I believe chart performance has relatively little bearing on the near term price of
silver.

The reasons for this are manifold but most come down to the simple fact that there is
not enough silver on the planet to satiate the current investment demand. It's quite
apparent that some of the mney destined for gold is being diverted to silver purchases
and even a small percentage of the gold investment going into silver will completely
change the silver pricing structure. The chart also doesn't reflect the widespread bear-
ishness among vast numbers of investors and this even includes silver investors to a
lesser extent.

We probably have not started the buying panic I've long expected but we might be in
the early stages. The fact that many believe it has happened and run its course is very
bullish.

Bulls shouldn't lose sight of the fact that there is lots of silver still existing in the form
of coin and this can supply the market for some time yet. But bears shouldn't forget
that coin is still a convenient and ubiquitous means for almost everyone to own silver.

ksammut

With all the problems in Libya, Jordan, and Syria, the unrest in the UK, and worsening problems in Japan, I would not be surprised to see gold and silver up big this week (at least 5%).

Whether up or down, I will continue to add to my silver stacking again this week.

tydye

At the shops I visited this week people were lined up selling but it was going right back out to others lined up to purchase it. Talk about turning your product.

Flatwoods

The 16:1 ratio was based on historical ratios and I believe it was codified into law with Bland-Allison in 1878. I may be wrong on that. Either way, that ratio has never really been stable, and in recent times the number has been much higher - either because silver was undervalued or gold was overvalued, take your pick.

Or neither. I have a hard time following the 16:1 logic. It may be the historical ratio but things change.
There are many reasons that the ratio could shift to 100:1 or 8:1.

jmski52

There are many reasons that the ratio could shift to 100:1 or 8:1.

Of course there are. It's hard to imagine that a ratio like that would remain static when everything else in the world is changing constantly.

Flatwoods

Exactly. I knew you were aware of this as are most here.
I am just amazed when I see people speculating with their life savings based on this ratio.

roadrunner

Monday is options expiration day for gold and silver. One last chance to take a whack at them for March. The banksters prefer to hit the metals on Wed-Friday since their actions
won't show up on the current COT reported the following Friday.

I mentioned in the trading thread that while silver is at the normal level seen for corrections, gold-plat-pall are still closer to cyclical lows. Silver is out there by itself on a limb.
But it has gone higher in the past on a percentage basis. Right now it is at the same approx overbought levels as the last significant 2 peaks ($21, and $31). Caution is advised but
it doesn't mean it can't go another $5 higher either. Question is what metal or commodity is the primary driver here, gold or silver or oil? Gold has been consolidating for 5 months.
Silver and oil just made new multi-year highs. My gut feel says gold is the general leader here even if at a slower and more steady upward pace.

roadrunner

jmski52

I mentioned in the trading thread that while silver is at the normal level seen for corrections, gold-plat-pall are still closer to cyclical lows. Silver is out there by itself on a limb. But it has gone higher in the past on a percentage basis. Right now it is at the same approx overbought levels as the last significant 2 peaks ($21, and $31). Caution is advised but it doesn't mean it can't go another $5 higher either. Question is what metal or commodity is the primary driver here, gold or silver or oil? Gold has been consolidating for 5 months. Silver and oil just made new multi-year highs. My gut feel says gold is the general leader here even if at a slower and more steady upward pace.

roadrunner, I think that you've made a very interesting observation. I love it that gold, plat, pall, oil, and silver are not all in sync! I love it! It means that nothing is resolved.

But it will be, in due time.

JoesMaName

My thoughts on why the Ag/Au ratio is currently skewed in favor of high gold are linked to
the world's central banks and their habit of hoarding gold and not silver.
It'll probably stay this way - at least until a need arises to start issuing huge amounts of
circulating silver coinage.

timrutnat

I believe the ratio went higher as silver became demonetized. As currencies crumble and people look for alternatives, the ratio will fall as people flock to silver. I believe that's why people think the ratio will fall.

timrutnat

Great call Bob!!!