OT -- tsunami
thehallmark
Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭
Horrific images of the Pacific today...some really sad stuff. I hope that JasP24 and the other CU folks out westward haven't been through hell in these last hours.
Hang in there Cali! Hopefully not too much damage today.
Hang in there Cali! Hopefully not too much damage today.
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Looking to BUY n332 1889 SF Hess cards and high grade cards from 19th century especially. "Once you have wrestled everything else in life is easy" Dan Gable
down south, the big story is boats are being sent out of the harbors and the news crews are there waiting for the water to rise....i hope they have a lotta helicopters if the fit hits the shan.
Hope he is ok, his cards too.
Steve
<< <i>FKW is in Hawaii.
Hope he is ok, his cards too.
Steve >>
the current is headed this way.
i'll go wait by the beach.
P.S. - i think he'll be ok.
Looking to BUY n332 1889 SF Hess cards and high grade cards from 19th century especially. "Once you have wrestled everything else in life is easy" Dan Gable
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>some people are getting more and more leery about those 2012 predictions.. >>
There's a guy who's been standing on a street corner near my office for the past year with a sign that says "JUDGEMENT DAY: May 21, 2011"
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
<< <i>
<< <i>some people are getting more and more leery about those 2012 predictions.. >>
There's a guy who's been standing on a street corner near my office for the past year with a sign that says "JUDGEMENT DAY: May 21, 2011" >>
that's the day he goes to trial for killing people from street corners.
<< <i>
<< <i>some people are getting more and more leery about those 2012 predictions.. >>
There's a guy who's been standing on a street corner near my office for the past year with a sign that says "JUDGEMENT DAY: May 21, 2011" >>
if he changes the date every day, sooner or later he will be right.
Looking to BUY n332 1889 SF Hess cards and high grade cards from 19th century especially. "Once you have wrestled everything else in life is easy" Dan Gable
<< <i>It looked like a movie...whole blocks wiped out in an avalanche of water...some people are getting more and more leery about those 2012 predictions.. >>
Could be, but the smart money is still on the 'over'.
Could be, but the smart money is still on the 'over'.
Well, if it's the under we won't be able to collect anyway..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>< It looked like a movie...whole blocks wiped out in an avalanche of water...some people are getting more and more leery about those 2012 predictions.. >>
Could be, but the smart money is still on the 'over'.
Well, if it's the under we won't be able to collect anyway.. >>
Ha! Great point- I'd never thought of it that way.
All of the 12/12/2012 nonsense highlights an oft-overlooked facet of human belief, which is that making a 'Type 1' error is often a disaster, but making a 'Type 2' error frequently has no consequences.
A 'Type 1' error is falsely abandoning a true hypothesis. So, for example, if you have two young children at home, and a creepy guy moves in next door, deciding that he's not a sexual predator has a huge downside. Or, as far as classic examples are concerned, if you see a snake on the side of the road and just decide that it's not poisonous (despite knowing nothing about snakes) that's a decision that can really backfire. In short, rejecting a true hypothesis is extremely dangerous.
But the 'Type 2' errors, i.e. those cases where we accept a false hypothesis, are usually not so disastrous. Example: It hasn't rained in six months, so I'm going to put on some funny clothes and dance counter clockwise around a circle I just drew in the sand. This isn't going to make it rain, but believing that it will make it rain isn't going to cost me much. In other words, there isn't much of a downside to adopting this belief.
The '2012' bit is a classic Type 2 error in the making. It's not going to cost anyone to believe in it, so why not jump on the bandwagon? In the worst case the world is exactly as it should be on the morning of the 13th. Most nutty beliefs- beliefs in the paranormal, reincarnation, aliens landing in New Mexico, random saviors of mankind emerging from modern day Jerusalem, Ayn Rand's special brand of craziness, etc. etc.-- fall into this category, which is why these beliefs gain traction. It's not that there's any evidence for adopting them, it's just that there's no obvious downside to doing so.
So, Boo, I'm going to guess you aren't a regular viewer of "Ghost Hunters" then...
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>The '2012' bit is a classic Type 2 error in the making. It's not going to cost anyone to believe in it, so why not jump on the bandwagon? >>
Kind of a low rent version of Pascal's Wager.
Regarding the Type 1 and Type 2 errors you defined in your above toast, I also recall that you used that reasoning to support the implementation of corrective measures to prevent global warming and climate change, essentially saying that such measures, while somewhat potentially inconvenient, would offer a much smaller downside than if the alternative scenario could, in fact, come to fruition.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I live well above the shore (Puna Dist Big Island), Im at 1,300' with many living all the way to the 4,200' elevation of 14,000' high Mauna Loa. Our shore on the lower East side is 98% cliffs between 15'-50'.... so even if you can throw a rock in ocean, your safe.
The Kona side of Big Island and Maui has some cleanup to do, they had "waves" from 3'-7'.... the worst hit was Kona side's Ali'i Drive where the wave swamped some shops and hotel lobbies. One 2 story "post and pier" home on shore in Capt Cook was swept to sea and is now in the middle of the Bay fully intact but 4/5th underwater.
Weve had over 20 earthquakes within 20 miles of me in last 24 hours... but that is common here. Biggest was 4.6
Lava has completely stopped at the new vent between Napau and Pu'u O'o, but that was expected as the fissure/fountains usually only last a few days.
RAW VIDEO: Kona tsunami – House washes away, floats in bay
Kona side (Kailua Town) tsunami video narrated by an Ausie kook who has no brains
Boo, I have to counter your point. In terms of claiming the world will end, I find no downside by choosing "Type 1" (rejecting the belief that the world will end), because if I was wrong, and the world ends, then who cares? I'm dead already. By choosing "Type 2" (adopting the belief that the world will end), you're spreading fear, living irresponsibly, and hurting others by causing overall stress and panic. Then on the day after the world was supposed to end, you're just a douchbag with a likely high credit card debt.
I agree that this theory is a lot like Pascal's Wager. I like to lean more towards the Atheist's Wager. "You should live your life and try to make the world a better place for your being in it, whether or not you believe in god. If there is no god, you have lost nothing and will be remembered fondly by those you left behind. If there is a benevolent god, he will judge you on your merits and not just on whether or not you believed in him."
While Im not stocking up my basement with non-perishable items waiting for the end to come, I have pretty much prioritized my spending habits, and unfortunately...it isnt on cards.
MY GOLD TYPE SET https://pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/complete-type-sets/gold-type-set-12-piece-circulation-strikes-1839-1933/publishedset/321940
ebay buyer: "Hey, uh, what's the hold up? Where's my card?"
ebay seller: "I don't know. Why don't you go look for it in the bleeping pacific!"