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Are we on the verge of THE buying panic.
cladking
Posts: 28,331 ✭✭✭✭✭
I've long maintained that someday we'd see the mother of all buying panics in silver
as people come to suddenly recognize that silver ain't what we've always believed it
to be. It seems apparent that old forces are continuing to try to push the price lower
but new demand, much of it speculative, is continuing to force it higher. There is still
excessive paper on the market which has to be sopped up at some point and must re-
sult in higher pries in the short run.
All the planets have come into alignment though this is not what I always expected. It
always seemed most likely that the buying panic would just arise suddenly and with
almost no warning. Perhaps we've been into the buying panic for some months and
it's merely playing out in slow motion. Perhaps the paradigm shift isn't so large as I
always believed it would be or the shorts are more successfull at stymying the change
than I'd have believed possible.
I believe the markets will give us guidance this week. Extreme volatility or extreme
volume might indicate that there are fireworks ahead or at hand.
When people come to see silver as the scarce but high production industrial and very
high tech metal that it is prices will be much higher. It might come into some sort of
price stability once the supply and demand forces are in some sort of equilibrium but
a lot of silver is moving to strong hands and stability can't happen until buyers and
sellers approach some sort of equilibrium as well.
as people come to suddenly recognize that silver ain't what we've always believed it
to be. It seems apparent that old forces are continuing to try to push the price lower
but new demand, much of it speculative, is continuing to force it higher. There is still
excessive paper on the market which has to be sopped up at some point and must re-
sult in higher pries in the short run.
All the planets have come into alignment though this is not what I always expected. It
always seemed most likely that the buying panic would just arise suddenly and with
almost no warning. Perhaps we've been into the buying panic for some months and
it's merely playing out in slow motion. Perhaps the paradigm shift isn't so large as I
always believed it would be or the shorts are more successfull at stymying the change
than I'd have believed possible.
I believe the markets will give us guidance this week. Extreme volatility or extreme
volume might indicate that there are fireworks ahead or at hand.
When people come to see silver as the scarce but high production industrial and very
high tech metal that it is prices will be much higher. It might come into some sort of
price stability once the supply and demand forces are in some sort of equilibrium but
a lot of silver is moving to strong hands and stability can't happen until buyers and
sellers approach some sort of equilibrium as well.
Tempus fugit.
0
Comments
it an ultra valuable resource in this day and age. I know the dollar is crumbling, and gold and silver will always be valueable IMO, but
I just don't see it replacing what the banksters have in place. The banksters and the government are in bed together, and if they
don't tell their citizens to buy gold and silver because it's not manipulated the way they like it to to buy votes and commit fraud, then
I can't see gold and silver ever going too high.
The only reason I see gold and silver one day taking off is if China sells our notes, we fold, and they become the new economic
power. Then gold and silver will take off to the moon alice.
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<< <i>The run from 17 to 33 can not be called a panic in my book. I still believe there isn't enough gold and silver around to make
it an ultra valuable resource in this day and age. I know the dollar is crumbling, and gold and silver will always be valueable IMO, but
I just don't see it replacing what the banksters have in place. The banksters and the government are in bed together, and if they
don't tell their citizens to buy gold and silver because it's not manipulated the way they like it to to buy votes and commit fraud, then
I can't see gold and silver ever going too high.
The only reason I see gold and silver one day taking off is if China sells our notes, we fold, and they become the new economic
power. Then gold and silver will take off to the moon alice. >>
The Chinese govt has been telling their citizens to buy gold. I think the rise in the pog tends to support that.
China has been selling our notes and will eventually become the new economic power.
Just what do the banksters have in place when you really come down it? Is this 97 yr old Ponzi scheme worth saving?
roadrunner
IMHO, the current runup in both gold and silver is not panic buying, but a deliberate move on the parts of certain people to acquire tangible assets that would hold their value if the U.S. dollar were to collapse. The Hunt Brothers bubble burst when the government changed the rules on the Hunt Brothers, and they were forced to dump. Though there will no doubt continue to be attempts made to manipulate metals prices downwards from time to time, there is no bubble to burst. The Hunt Brothers are not in this fandango.
MOO
TD
sure would be a sorry one if it were. But if we're on the verge then it sure didn't
come out of the blue either.
We'll see the opening in a few minutes but this in itself can't be much information.
Looks like a steady climb up so far.
It's my sense that people are well aware of Gold yes, general census on Silver? It is my opinion that it is still ignored by most.
I'm fairly certain most are more comfortable putting money into bonds and stocks before giving PM's a try.
I just don't think Silver will become a widespread bubble like some are saying it will be.
I do think it'll have a niche following and that is enough to sustain a nice run and demand.
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Americans have their head in the sand when it comes to understanding economics. Europeans are not much better. The Chinese, Indians, and Arabs seem to understand but have less investing dollars than the average American however the ones that do have money to invest, include PMs in their investing.
The average American who has any gold or silver sells as the price goes higher while those in China, India, and the Arab countries add more.
The buying panic will come when the economic conditions, due to our debt and dollar crash, become so obvious to even the most dense that everyone and their brother will want PMs.
If I am correct that less than 5% of adults in America own more than 5 ounces of silver and/or 1 ounce of gold, I cannot imagine how high the price of both will go if just 10% to 15% more started to buy any significant amount of PMs. Add in the rest of the world and you will see prices many times higher than what we are seeing now.
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You meant herd (not heard) didn't you.
<< <i>Clad, Do you think the public in general has really even started to become aware of and is buying silver in any appreciable amounts? I think most people these days are probably at least somewhat aware of gold and the price run it's had due to all the media publicity, but I'm not so sure about silver. >>
It is the fact that so few people recognize the real value of silver and its value
relative to gold that it must eventually shoot far higher. It's the fact that people
aren't buying it and very few are recommending it that means there are literally
billions of people who can still be a market for it. Everyone knows about gold
and demand is dependent on changing assessments of risk vs cost. Everything
is factored in from interest rates to storage costs.
But people just don't know about silver. Most are aware that it played a role
as currency in the past and that it's much more abundant in the earth than is
gold but have no idea that it's critical in myriad high tech products and that it's
used as fast as it comes out of the ground. They don't know that the price has
been artificially suppressed for decades as a greedy few wasted much of what
had been in storage. They are not aware of the unique properties and the vir-
tual certainty that these will assure an increasing demand if we are to even
maintain populations.
Since even most people who are aware of these things believe that the run-up
is grossly overblown and a bubble is developing there simply aren't any sellers
left. Selling is coming only on paper by those who can't make good on the con-
tract if current trends continue. Even many "owners" of silver will find their sil-
ver has been already sold by dishonest bankers to sundry other parties who al-
so will be left holding an empty bag of promises and lies. (while meanwhile be-
ing charged an annual dusting fee on the metal that's supposed to be in stor-
age).
This is a prescription for a buying panic; greatly increasing demand where there
are no sellers left and the apparent commodity is simply evaporating because
it never really existed in the first place. The sellers of paper silver even have to
make an attempt to cover their promises or risk bankruptcy or prison. Buyers
simply appear from all directions while sellers stop. Only the several mines which
sold forward are selling into the booming demand but this total selling is only a
fraction of industrial demand.
When this move happens it should be very swift. People don't adjust their att-
itudes so quickly but in the modern age computers do much of the decision mak-
ing and they don't care about precedent.
There is a well known effect when something is disappearing for bid and ask to
not mesh and to do this with increasing frequency and amplitude. It appears that
this effect is already underway in a some places. A buying panic results but these
aren't real until they are actually underway. And then they can't be stopped. Even
macroeconomic forces probably couldn't stop such a move in any important com-
modity like oil, silver, gold, wheat, rice, or currency/ bonds. At some point the tail can
wag the dog.
Of course I've been wrong for years on this prediction and there's every probab-
ility that I'm wrong again. This certainly isn't "out of the blue" so I'll be wrong on
some level no matter what happens and when.
A very wise man once said that markets will do anything they have to in order to
prove everyone wrong.
ility that I'm wrong again. This certainly isn't "out of the blue" so I'll be wrong on
some level no matter what happens and when.
At $34+/oz, I don't think you've been proven wrong yet. If anything, you're still in the batter's box with bases loaded knocking off foul balls.
roadrunner
<< <i>Of course I've been wrong for years on this prediction and there's every probab-
ility that I'm wrong again. This certainly isn't "out of the blue" so I'll be wrong on
some level no matter what happens and when.
At $34+/oz, I don't think you've been proven wrong yet. If anything, you're still in the batter's box with bases loaded knocking off foul balls.
roadrunner >>
He's wearing out the pitcher!
My Numismatics with Kenny eBay Store Over 6000 listings and growing with more than 39,000 items sold
My Numismatics with Kenny Twitter Page Instagram - numismatistkenny
My Numismatics with Kenny Blog Page Best viewed on a laptop or monitor.
ANA Life Member & Volunteer District Representative
2019 ANA Young Numismatist of the Year
Doing my best to introduce Young Numismatists and Young Adults into the hobby.
<< <i>
<< <i>Of course I've been wrong for years on this prediction and there's every probab-
ility that I'm wrong again. This certainly isn't "out of the blue" so I'll be wrong on
some level no matter what happens and when.
At $34+/oz, I don't think you've been proven wrong yet. If anything, you're still in the batter's box with bases loaded knocking off foul balls.
roadrunner >>
He's wearing out the pitcher! >>
You mean JPMorgue?
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Of course I've been wrong for years on this prediction and there's every probab-
ility that I'm wrong again. This certainly isn't "out of the blue" so I'll be wrong on
some level no matter what happens and when.
At $34+/oz, I don't think you've been proven wrong yet. If anything, you're still in the batter's box with bases loaded knocking off foul balls.
roadrunner >>
He's wearing out the pitcher! >>
You mean JPMorgue?
roadrunner >>
Don't blame me. JPMorgue keeps throwing foul balls.
One more outside the box and the winning run is forced in on a walk.