Options
The real problem with baseball cards is supply.....
Dpeck100
Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
I have read a ton of threads on here debating the obvious concerns in the sports card world and specifically the baseball card market.
There is one card I have a number of that I have always wanted to own a copy in mint condition. The 1980 Rickey Henderson rookie card. This is a classic card from one of the all time great baseball sets. The 1980 Topps has tons of star power and is a great design.
I just checked on EBAY and there are 231 cards listed under 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson. This is just far too many to choose from and there are only two things that seperate a listing. The grade and price. For a card to maintain strong market demand it not only needs to be relatively hard to find and most definatley condition sensitive.
The only copy of this card that has a chance to appreciate is the PSA 10 or other major grading companies in their version to a point. There are just simply too many PSA 8's and PSA 9's to choose from and when the economy is tuff and collecting is out of favor the supply avalanche hits. In a stronger economy a PSA 9 may improve some but not much unless card collecting comes back in vogue.
I would suspect this card has held up much better then most 1980's cards but you must own the gem for this to be a truely rare card.
There was a thread a few days ago about 1975 O-pee-chee cards that realized what appeared to be high prices. The supply is low and they are condition sensitive. Enough said.
There is one card I have a number of that I have always wanted to own a copy in mint condition. The 1980 Rickey Henderson rookie card. This is a classic card from one of the all time great baseball sets. The 1980 Topps has tons of star power and is a great design.
I just checked on EBAY and there are 231 cards listed under 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson. This is just far too many to choose from and there are only two things that seperate a listing. The grade and price. For a card to maintain strong market demand it not only needs to be relatively hard to find and most definatley condition sensitive.
The only copy of this card that has a chance to appreciate is the PSA 10 or other major grading companies in their version to a point. There are just simply too many PSA 8's and PSA 9's to choose from and when the economy is tuff and collecting is out of favor the supply avalanche hits. In a stronger economy a PSA 9 may improve some but not much unless card collecting comes back in vogue.
I would suspect this card has held up much better then most 1980's cards but you must own the gem for this to be a truely rare card.
There was a thread a few days ago about 1975 O-pee-chee cards that realized what appeared to be high prices. The supply is low and they are condition sensitive. Enough said.
0
Comments
Bob
Looking for Bob Uecker cards
My Ebay Auctions
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
The simple problem is there are too many. This is a prime example of a great card that are just so many in reasonably good condition that the card is stuck in a long term trading range.
A great example of a card I think that is a long term winner is the Ozzie Smith Rookie. Lower print run but awful condition off the print press.
T222's PSA 1 or better
10k Hendersons have been graded, out of the, what... possibly 1 million Hendersons that were printed?
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
But then again Topps is the most in demand cards for most beginner and many long time collectors who never advance to older stuff.
Some newbies think Topps is all there is... Demand will always be there for Topps cards. because there are always new collectors.
The most common PreWar issues (including R319 and T206) are far scarcer than any Topps card......... thats where supply really comes into factor.
Compare your 1980 Henderson..... how many are out there? if you say over 10,000 are graded, Id say then there are over 40,000 in existence if not more.
Compare that to the most common of all prewar cards, the T206's, there is estimated about 1 million T206 cards in existence today, that breaks down to roughly 2,000 of each card (pose), and this does not include the different backs which would further reduce the numbers if you broke down the cards by pose and back.
Another thing about a modern card like the 1980 Henderson, is that 90+% will be in EX or better condition. It was printed in the Price Guide/Plastic Page Era.
Cards pre1975 are from the Rubberband Era and will have a higher % of cards that would fall in the VG range than cards made in the last 20-25 years.
If you watch the card auctions that go off on EBAY each day and week, the same recipe for a high price sale is always the same. A number of people are looking for the card and it is not readily available.
A few weeks ago a Boog Powell card that was super scarce went for around 7k. You can not just log onto EBAY and find that card let alone in strong condition. These are the type of cards that will stay strong and perhaps go higher.
Clearly there is plenty of oppurtunity to find raw cards and get them graded and make some dough, but buying holdered cards from the modern era is a losing proposition.
I agree with the comment you want a large percentage of the raw cards to be in poor condition to really have a strong chance of it being a good investment card.
This thread is not to discourage people from buyng baseball cards but just a real world example of one of the best cards from the modern era and a quick reminder of just how many there are. I have 7 1980 Rickey Henderson's and none are slabbed so the prediction of 40k plus is most likely very true.
This would tell me that if the card went up for sale in a few years only a handful of people would be interested and the price would probably drop significantly because only two bidders drove the price from just over $1600 up to $7000. If one comes up again that card sells for around $3500 most likely because there are no more bidders willing to pay that amount. An even stranger point from this auction is that the under bidder has placed 8 bids in the last 30 days and only on this auction. He was responsible for the bidding from $4500 up to the sales price.
So the real question is how many people would bid on a Rickey Henderson psa 9? The last one sold had 6 people drive it from $150 up to $216. That is a pretty good pool of people and I would feel good about putting it back up for sale and getting close to the price I paid.
T222's PSA 1 or better
the following year Donruss and Fleer entered the fray for the long haul, creating a need for multi-tasking or decision making on behalf of the modern collector and Topps added an update set, Fleer made cards backwards, Donruss rated rookies, and anybody with a basement and color copier started making cards.
Rickey Henderson AND his rookie card are incredibly iconic, as well as ironic.
<< <i>In baseball card collection, all Topps cards are very very very very common! Period. >>
If you are referring to poor or better than yes I agree. To some degree at least.
If you are saying that Topps cards are very (X4) common in true EX/MNT or better than I must disagree.
Blanket statements such as yours really have no meaning unless some context is included.
<< <i> how many are out there? if you say over 10,000 are graded, Id say then there are over 40,000 in existence if not more. >>
Really Frank? 40,000? .....if not more. Here you had a chance at some context Frank and ya blew it.
You are a wealth of information regarding pre war, Topps <shakes head> stick to the pre war.
Steve
<< <i>
<< <i> how many are out there? if you say over 10,000 are graded, Id say then there are over 40,000 in existence if not more. >>
Really Frank? 40,000? .....if not more. Here you had a chance at some context Frank and ya blew it.
You are a wealth of information regarding pre war, Topps <shakes head> stick to the pre war.
Steve >>
I think theres closer to 4 million than 40,000
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> how many are out there? if you say over 10,000 are graded, Id say then there are over 40,000 in existence if not more. >>
Really Frank? 40,000? .....if not more. Here you had a chance at some context Frank and ya blew it.
You are a wealth of information regarding pre war, Topps <shakes head> stick to the pre war.
Steve >>
I think theres closer to 4 million than 40,000 >>
+1
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
The largest card show in the world known as eBay.
Pre eBay it was the little shops and the occasional major shows.
Cards meant something when you can find the right one.
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
some people say overproduction started in 1967 who knows?
maybe it was the late 30's or early 40's when someone invented the dang computer. this might be the whole problem.
I want everyone reading this to go & get the nearest hammer, axe, gun, baseball bat, hand-grenade ect ect and smash every computer you see.
this will stop overproduction.
<< <i>I want everyone reading this to go & get the nearest hammer, axe, gun, baseball bat, hand-grenade ect ect and smash every computer you see.
this will stop overproduction. >>
yeah but how would we argue about anything?
<< <i>
<< <i>I want everyone reading this to go & get the nearest hammer, axe, gun, baseball bat, hand-grenade ect ect and smash every computer you see.
this will stop overproduction. >>
yeah but how would we argue about anything?
uspes- united states pony express service or the local watering hole.
There is one card I have a number of that I have always wanted to own a copy in mint condition.
If you're a collector then an adequate supply is a good thing. If you always wanted one, then just go out and buy one. If the only reason for wanting one is to make money then find mint ones raw and get them graded or find something else to invest in that's more difficult.
A great example of this, for me, was a 1962 Tom Tresh in EX or less condition. I sold one on sportlots, where there arent many "vintage" cards offered compared to ebay. This was the only '62 Tresh or just about any Tresh card. It sold for $7.50. I was surprised at this price, I expected $5 or less. I checked ebay and at the time, there were 15 different auctions/BINS for this card in comparable condition, all LESS than $5.
Putting that into context, 1988 Donruss was "rare or hard to get" when there were millions of people wanting them and there was no internet. Now there is a tenth of the people looking for them and every person in the world has internet, it makes them virtually worthless and if someone actually wants any of them, they are all available at 10% or less of book.
If the supply was much lower there is enough interest for this card to be priced much higher. As I said initially the problem is supply. There is simply too many for buyers to choose from.
I realize very few on here are interested in the Wrestling All Stars I collect but they are a perfect example of how supply drives everything.
When taking basic economics classes you draw an upward sloping supply curve first as prices rise so does supply. If you can find cards that the supply can not expand rapidly as prices rise you have an investment.
The strongest card in the Wrestling All Stars is the Andre The Giant as it is one of the toughest cards in high grade of the 108 in all three sets and it is a major star card. Becuase you can not find an Andre in high grade at all times the price has expanded.
The cards in general that will move higher are the ones that are hard to find in high grade and the rest will be very much impacted by the economy good or bad.
T222's PSA 1 or better
That being said there are less Andre cards that exist then there are PSA 9 Rickey Henderson rookies.
As I said from the first post that a PSA 10 Henderson was a very rare card and would clearly be one that could go up in value.
The over whelming problem is there are too many close substitutes. One of the primary laws of economics is that where there is a close substitute price will drive people to the next closest thing. If you only have a few to choose from there is no close substitute.
I posted an example of a rare card that went nuts and did sell. Those are the only cards I think that can really move higher in a big way. Any card where you can log onto EBAY and find many to choose from becomes a price game and not anything else.
Longer term I still think ultra rare cards in general are going much higher. But if you own a card that can quickly be bought off EBAY in any grade then be careful.
<< <i>What is the difference if 10 people want an Andre The Giant card in a PSA 10 and there are only 1 graded and 1000 people are looking for a 1980 Rickey Henderson in a PSA 10 and there are only 10 available? Numbers work out the same, but you cannot discount the demand side of your curve. As the price rises abviously the demand shrinks, but if you start with a smaller pool there is a limit to what people can pay because you run out of demand sooner. Just a thought. >>
You're right, but it's not ONLY the ratio of supply/demand that matters. There are other variables that can indirectly affect the market. With the Henderson card, supply is higher and demand is higher. This means there will inevitably be people who desire to own the card AND have the ability to pay. If there's one Andre the Giant PSA 10, and 10 people want it, but they're all poor and don't have the means, the value of the card is never going to take off. When you reduce the pool of available buyers, eventually the market will fall out. Even if one of the 10 people who want the card is a billionaire, the price is set by the second most interested party, at least on ebay.
In reality there are a few wrestling cards that really atrract the masses and the rest do not. If an Andre The Giant PSA 10 ever surfaced which it won't, it would go for crazy cash. There are a few cards at the top of the wrestling card market that attract a much broader audiance.
The 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson has a large number of people interested. The PSA 10 is one of the major cards in the hobby. The number of people looking to find the Andre The Giant card mentioned will never even remotely compete with the Henderson. The one major difference is there are just so few cards that exist in high grade and a very small number that exist at all.
The available supply of any card or anything dictates the price; not demand. You can have all the demand you want but if you can create supply there is never a shortage. A true economic shortage is the only fundamental way prices go up.
Get a life!!! This is why these boards have died.
No way bro....
<< <i>Wrestling cards are non-sport cards. >>
In that case, modern baseball cards are non-sport cards as well, because MLB has made a complete spectacle of itself over the past 20 years. I've been making comparisons between MLB and the WWF ever since Roger Clemens decided to come out of retirement because some opportunistic car dealer in Houston gave him a free Hummer. And evidently, the dealer wasn't the only one who gave Clemens a Hummer.
Baseball has become a completely irrelevant joke, no different than the super bowl halftime show or NBA all-star game.
All sports are fixed, at least to some degree. The outcome of any one pitch or any one inning or any one game might not be fixed, but strings get pulled and events are shaped well in advance. Bud Selig might not know what team is going to win the 2011 World Series, but I guarantee that if he was forthcoming (which is never) that he could give you a list of 3-4 teams that could potentially win it. The other 26-27 teams have absolutely no shot. It's deliberate and calculated and intentional. The rest is just an illusion - a show or spectacle - not a true competition - to hold your interest and create a buzz designed to get people to spent (waste) money on tickets, garbage that passes for "memorabilia," overpriced food, and crap being advertised on TV. Is that really any different than wrestling? Scripted or not, the more talented wrestlers who are in good shape are much better athletes than most baseball players. I'd like to see C.C. Sabathia jump from the top rope to a concrete floor 12 feet below with padding no thicker than an inch, land awkwardly on some guy, get up, take 20 punches to the face, get back in the ring and body slam his opponent, pin him, and then come back the following night and do it all over again.
<< <i>Wrestling cards are non-sport cards. >>
According to our hosts here that setup the different forums, professional wrestling cards ARE sports cards. If you go to the set registry pages, you will see the wrestling cards (including professional) are listed under the sports cards sections. They are NOT listed under non-sports. Therefore, I would infer that discussions of professional wrestling cards on CU's "Sports cards & Memorabilia Forum" is perfectly acceptable, and just as relevant to the "Sports Cards & Memoribila Forum" as the generally accepted baseball, football, hockey, etc.
It might not be your cup of tea, but for people to continue to tell others that wrestling cards are not sports cards, or that they shouldn't be discussed on this forum, is in direct contradiction to what the very company that sets up and provides these forums, appears to believe as evidenced by their own classification system.
Would others consider it a sport? Maybe, maybe not, but others opinons really don't count for a whole lot in determining what is allowed and what isn't allowed to be discussed in these forums.
Mike
<< <i>You have a tendency to make your opinion sound like it's a fact. >>
That's because I'm a narcissistic sociopath.
<< <i>Tens of millions of fans obviously think you're wrong. >>
"[Any] man more right than his neighbors constitutes a majority of one already." -- Henry David Thoreau
http://www.lewrockwell.com/mcelroy/mcelroy86.html
I was using an example of a card that was highly sought after that just happens to have very few made. Trust me if the Rickey Henderson rookie had a print run like the Wrestling All Stars the price would be sky high.