Silver Stocks at 4-Year Low; Silver Futures in Backwardation
jmski52
Posts: 22,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
Interesting developments in silver.....
6.5 million Silver Eagles in a month!
Record retail demand, even accounting for large ATF withdrawals...
Looks like a short squeeze on physical silver to me. What do ya think?
6.5 million Silver Eagles in a month!
Record retail demand, even accounting for large ATF withdrawals...
Looks like a short squeeze on physical silver to me. What do ya think?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
0
Comments
Raising the price to 50 or so will alleviate the squeeze and bring plenty metal to market for the elites to scoop up. That's when the real squeeze happens later this year.
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i could, of course, be wrong.
I am just a simple man. Does this mean that the price of silver is going to climb or what?
<< <i>I am just a simple man. Does this mean that the price of silver is going to climb or what? >>
It really just means that it has to increase in the future or decrease now. But if the
trends that caused this persist there can be a substantial upward pressure on prices.
That piece read like it was a lawyer talking and I have never been able to understand lawyers.
Let me try to interpret. I was married to a lawyer for 20+ years. It means that silver is getting closer to the point when the lid is gonna blow off that sucka'.
I knew it would happen.
I guess you cant make it any clearer than that! I hope you are right.
Lots of folks believe that backwardation confirms a "safer" entry
for a short term trade. Very often that is true, but it does NOT
entirely preclude the possibility of a harsh downward correction.
But, risk vs. reward - I'll take it now, and I'm fine with holding as long as it takes to resolve the price via the price discovery for physical, and not get too stressed about what the paper market for silver is doing.
Yes, it can always take a header. But I don't think that's in the cards now. A year from now, we're looking at $50 silver, and not a peak in silver like 1980 - but a new baseline price of $50.
Yeah, it's time.
I knew it would happen.
Slag or slang, it's all the same.
For me looking at past performance of the silver market is not giving a clear picture
of the happenings of today. My feeling for the lower long term prices and higher short term
prices might have a little something to do with that for the first time in the Silver and Gold
markets it has become common knowledge that both Silver and Gold Paper markets are
totally manipulated at the highest levels supposedly for the good of the paper money
stability of the entire planet.
Along with the revelations that the paper Gold market is a fractional reserve market with it coming to
light that it is common practice to sell up to 100 paper ounces for every one physical ounce of metal.
Putting the fear into the paper metal investor that they will not be able to redeem their contracts for metal because there is not
enough metal to satisfy all the contracts.
And we all know that fear will make any market do very weird and wild things outside of normal and predictable cycles.
The statements that stands out to me in the article is
"This month, we have seen the retail interest has stayed strong but the exchange traded product slowdown is not as negative," Cooper said.
"Sales of the one-ounce American Eagle silver coins by the U.S. Mint surged to a record at nearly 6.5 million, the highest since the coin's introduction in 1986."
Showing me that there is a large separation building between the Physical and the Paper Silver and Gold markets.
Possibly in the future to the point where Physical and Paper end up priced totally differently.
With Physical of course being higher because you are actually in possession of what you purchased.
Just some thoughts for discussion,
Differing opinions are always welcome and if I am wrong about something due to a misunderstanding
of some facts please feel free to point it out this is how we will all get a
better understanding of the events that are unfolding is through discussion.
Terry
roadrunner
<< <i>It appears "backwardation" is slag for sell now while the price is high. >>
"slag?"
A Freudian slip if there ever was one......
<< <i>All we really know is that the silver and gold markets (along with currencies and interest rates) have been heavily manipulated for at least the past 10-15 yrs. The end result of that game should be obvious. TPTB will do everything in their power to extend the game...even though they know the eventual outcome.
roadrunner >>
Amen, brother!
I was at a show yesterday and could have bought a J-M poured kilo at $30.50 an ounce but chickened out because I was afraid of another "correction." I am still holding everything else I own, but am reluctant to add.
TD
<< <i>
...
The statements that stands out to me in the article is
"This month, we have seen the retail interest has stayed strong but the exchange traded product slowdown is not as negative," Cooper said.
"Sales of the one-ounce American Eagle silver coins by the U.S. Mint surged to a record at nearly 6.5 million, the highest since the coin's introduction in 1986."
...
Terry >>
There are different ways to interpret this. Obviously, the interpretation depends on the person. If a person thinks silver is headed much higher, their Rorschach test sees a picture portending higher prices, and the replies to this thread show that. Little fish tend to buy the one ounce eagles. Big fish interested in physical would tend towards 100 oz bars or to mostly skip silver and focus on the more valuable metals. One interpretation is that the little fish are pouring in the silver "net" with prices at recovery highs. Little fish will tend to do this at every significant top in the markets, so I would interpret record retail demand from the little fish as a bearish portent, not a bullish one.
The other part is less clear. It is tough to tell who is drawing out of SLV. Some might say it is mostly hedge funds that need to get in and out quickly. If that is true, the interpretation will depend on whether folks think that hedge fund money is smart money or dumb money, are they big fish or little fish? It is difficult to tell just from flows. They are almost sure to be bigger fish than the ones buying the one ounce eagles, and extremely unlikely to be the same folks.
Apmex availability
--Severian the Lame
I doubt you can get those prices right now.
Gold and Silver has been interesting and eye opening in the way of the way the general public (non Collectors and Metal Bugs)
receives information on the subject. They include a stock investor,a Pastor, a Retired Auto Worker, Police Officials of varying ranks,
Local Small Business owners, and various local Political Office holder in the area that I live.
One thing I have learned is what we as collectors take as common knowledge through our discussions about areas of
interest in the course of pursuing our hobby is very foreign to those people that are outside the hobby
for instance my primary interest in the hobby surrounds Morgan, Peace and Eisenhower Dollars
along with Lincoln Cents.
But as a side subject to those interest has come the learning of the movement and flow of the precious metals
that makes up the coins in my primary interest.
I have found that at best the people mentioned above have only a very cursory knowledge of Silver and Gold
mostly what they have heard on the news. And as we as collectors take for common knowledge that news casters
have no idea what they are talking about when it comes to Precious Metals. (I know I have caught myself calling a news person an idiot
when they are telling a story about Gold or Silver that I know to be untrue, Raise your hand if you have done this too LOL)
The people above see the news as the knowledgeable people that are giving them the truth about something.
In short the things that we take for common knowledge are are very foreign to those outside the hobby
It is just recently that manipulation of the markets has made its way from conspiracy theory nut case stories
to the edges of the general public and being accepted because of recent events .
<< <i>I doubt you can get those prices right now. >>
993 JM bars still available
exceptions to this are when the commodity has a seasonal / yearly cycle (like crops)
or when there is a 'short term' squeeze and contracts are being delivered - which may predict a jump in future prices as short sellers scramble more and more to get product
<< <i>
<< <i>All we really know is that the silver and gold markets (along with currencies and interest rates) have been heavily manipulated for at least the past 10-15 yrs. The end result of that game should be obvious. TPTB will do everything in their power to extend the game...even though they know the eventual outcome.
roadrunner >>
Amen, brother!
I was at a show yesterday and could have bought a J-M poured kilo at $30.50 an ounce but chickened out because I was afraid of another "correction." I am still holding everything else I own, but am reluctant to add.
TD >>
Have no fear. The country is bankrupt. The financial mess is not getting better but worse....
when they are telling a story about Gold or Silver that I know to be untrue, Raise your hand if you have done this too LOL)""
------------------BigE
Pretty sure he unloaded at the wrong time. Take care. jws
<< <i>Does anyone know if Berkshire Hathaway still holds the silver position that was mentioned in post above?
Pretty sure he unloaded at the wrong time. Take care. jws >>
I don't think Buffet unloaded that silver position voluntarily. If he felt in the later 1990's that it was going to be a buy then why bail out in 2003-2006? My feeling is that he was given an offer he "couldn't refuse" that would give him a bigger stake at the bankster's poker table. Some have surmised that the 120 MILL ounces of silver that Buffet held went towards the initial funding of the ETF SLV. If the banksters wanted control of both physical and the ETF, Buffet was the guy to approach. They took him out of silver at the time that it was most opportune for them. After the financial meltdown in 2008 Buffet got some sweetheart deals in major corporations. Coincidence? And maybe Buffet gets a phone call each week on which stocks the PPT boyz are going to be pushing that week.
Ever since Buffet bailed out on silver he and Charlie have bad-mouthed the metals as something truly barbaric and nonsensical. It was akin to Greenspan shedding his 1960's vintage gold stripes in the 1970's when he became part of the establishment. If silver was such a barbaric investment why did Buffet amass 120 MILL ounces of it? For someone who is very good at holding something for the long haul, getting out of silver by 2006 didn't make a lick of sense following the initial move from 2002-2006....unless there were important side benefits.
roadrunner
<< <i> I don't think Buffet unloaded that silver position voluntarily. >>
Backwardation usually results in a very sharp and parabolic upward move followed by a massive decline. Of course the size of the decline would be relative to the size of the increase.
Last true backwardation was oil from Apr/May to July 2008.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That statement is the absolute Truth of the matter.
When one gets to that level of play, The rules become Very Very Simple
There are Predator's and there are Prey
<< <i>
<< <i>Does anyone know if Berkshire Hathaway still holds the silver position that was mentioned in post above?
Pretty sure he unloaded at the wrong time. Take care. jws >>
I don't think Buffet unloaded that silver position voluntarily. If he felt in the later 1990's that it was going to be a buy then why bail out in 2003-2006? My feeling is that he was given an offer he "couldn't refuse" that would give him a bigger stake at the bankster's poker table. Some have surmised that the $120 MILL ounces of silver that Buffet held went towards the initial funding of the ETF SLV. If the banksters wanted control of both physical and the ETF, Buffet was the guy to approach. They took him out of silver at the time that it was most opportune for them. After the financial meltdown in 2008 Buffet got some sweetheart deals in major corporations. Coincidence? And maybe Buffet gets a phone call each week on which stocks the PPT boyz are going to be pushing that week.
Ever since Buffet bailed out on silver he and Charlie have bad-mouthed the metals as something truly barbaric and nonsensical. It was akin to Greenspan shedding his 1960's vintage gold stripes in the 1970's when he became part of the establishment. If silver was such a babaric investiment why did Buffet amass 120 MILL ounces of it? For someone who is very good at holding something for the long haul, getting out of silver by 2006 didn't make a lick of sense following the initial move from 2002-2006....unless there were important side benefits.
roadrunner >>
Opinions of Buffet and his "reputation" have nose dived in the past couple years. Now I think of old threesome Warren as just an old skank who put himself above what was right. Kind of like Greenspan. I hope I'm wrong.
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