With a depleted starting pitching staff, how will the Yankees fair this year?
MCMLVTopps
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With Sabathia and Hughes the only bright spots on the roster...yes, I eliminated Burnett and Chamberlain, how far will the Yankees sink in the standings come about All-Star time? Any Yankee fans hear about anything in the hopper to bolster the gaping holes in the rotation? Could be a very dismal year unless Cashman works some kinda magic before opening day.
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I'm in tears right now over this.
The girl in the apartment next to me has supposedly gone out on a few dates with him recently. I figure she has to be telling the truth since 99% of baseball fans don't even know who Andrew Brackman is, let alone some sorority girl
<< <i>With Sabathia and Hughes the only bright spots on the roster...yes, I eliminated Burnett and Chamberlain, how far will the Yankees sink in the standings come about All-Star time? Any Yankee fans hear about anything in the hopper to bolster the gaping holes in the rotation? Could be a very dismal year unless Cashman works some kinda magic before opening day. >>
"Cry me a bag of money"
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Ralph
<< <i>Of course our starting pitching is a major concern. Thankfully we have hands down the best bullpen in MLB. If you haven't scored your runs by the 7th inning, fuggetaboutit. Another concern is the age of our line-up. Jeter, A-Roid, & Posada still have it in them, but won't forever. Let's hope this isn't the year they begin to slow down. Our catching position is another issue, we've got a young stud Montero coming up, Jorge has already been told he's not the #1 catcher. Can Russell Martin rebound & have a great year or will we have to rely on Cervelli again? (I actually like his arm & ability to get key hits). However in spite of all that, I still believe we'll reach the playoffs & after that who knows? After all, our division now only has one strong team (BoSux). The Rays had a fire sale and better hope ManRam gets back on the juice. The Jays & Orioles? Not to be mean but i absolutely don't see it. If our guys produce like they should (and can) then I see no reason to think The Bombers will be watching October baseball from the comfort of their own living rooms
You need to watch the Central for the wild card this year. Also, I'm not sure you should count on Jeter and Posada (not Rivera) to "Still have it in them". Father time gets to everyone eventually, and the playoffs weren't exactly a showcase for the older guys.
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Care to post what you think the rotation will be? Care to comment on Burnett's performance?
The "best offense" is a bit dubious to me.
The A's think you must be joking with that assertion.
I knew you'd throw Burnett into the mix, and I'll bet on opening day you'll more than likely see Chamerlain in there. Anyway, you came up two short. I don't think you can hold out much hope for anyone coming from the farm teams. Cashman is, I'm sure burning the midnight oil trying to figure this thing out...and BTW, Rivera ain't gettin any younger, he's the only real bright star you've got in the bullpen.
The Yanks have a potent offense when they perform, but not "the best...just my opinion. I would have to put the Red Sox offense right up there with the addition of Crawford. If we have another ambulance year, it could be in the tank. Should be some good games, but I really think the Yanks are in some deep S^*T right now...we'll see soon enough.
I'll predict Ellsbury is traded by year's end. I think he's listening to Boreass much too much and lamed out on the Red Sox team for the majority of the season.
Now that King George is gone, I'll also bet Cashman will be toast if the team's performance slumps to an embarrassing low, which, given current status of the team's pitching scenario, is very possible.
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<< <i>As of now, it would be CC, Hughes, and Burnett + whomever performs out of spring training. I'm perfectly comfortable with Nova holding one of the spots. As for the dubiousness of their offense being the best, let's suppose you're right and they're not, even though they kicked everyone else's ass by a HUGE margin in 2010 with down years from several key players. just how far off the best do you think their offense is? >>
Not sure I'd call 41 runs - a quarter of a run per game - a "HUGE" margin.
Tabe
<< <i>
<< <i>As of now, it would be CC, Hughes, and Burnett + whomever performs out of spring training. I'm perfectly comfortable with Nova holding one of the spots. As for the dubiousness of their offense being the best, let's suppose you're right and they're not, even though they kicked everyone else's ass by a HUGE margin in 2010 with down years from several key players. just how far off the best do you think their offense is? >>
Not sure I'd call 41 runs - a quarter of a run per game - a "HUGE" margin.
Tabe >>
Statistically speaking, it IS pretty darn big.
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It didn't take you long to reduce this into personal insults...I shouldn't be surprised. I opened up what I thought was a thread welcoming Yankee fans, or any fans who were up on what the Yankee pitching staff might look like this year, as I had a genuine interest in what the team admin people might be up to...you, OTOH, go into this nonsensical crap and turn this into a hate speech diatribe. I can assure you there is no insecurity here, I couldn't give a rat's ass less about how your team performs, good, bad, or indifferent. Too bad you turned into such a jerk.
Have an enjoyable season, I'm done here.
Dice K blows.
Bucholz will come back to earth this year, after being one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB last year.
Lackey would been nice if it were 2006. Last year he sported a 4.40 ERA, and a declining 156/72 strikeout/walk ratio.
Beckett isn't exactly the model of consistency. In two of his last five years he has had ERA's over 5.00...and health is a concern with him.
They do have Lester.
<< <i>
<< <i>You’re just another typical Red Sox fan who is utterly insecure about potential Yankee success and who is so wrapped up in your insecurity that you’d rather focus on the Yankees than spending time talking about the team that you supposedly are a “fan” of.
It didn't take you long to reduce this into personal insults...I shouldn't be surprised. I opened up what I thought was a thread welcoming Yankee fans, or any fans who were up on what the Yankee pitching staff might look like this year, as I had a genuine interest in what the team admin people might be up to...you, OTOH, go into this nonsensical crap and turn this into a hate speech diatribe. I can assure you there is no insecurity here, I couldn't give a rat's ass less about how your team performs, good, bad, or indifferent. Too bad you turned into such a jerk.
Have an enjoyable season, I'm done here. >>
Good. I hope you're done forever. Why don't you read your original post from an objective standpoint and see how "welcoming to Yankee fans" it is in talking your normal trash about how far they'll "sink" in the standings by the All Star break. You claim you "couldn't give a rat's ass less about how (the Yanks) perform" yet you felt compelled to start a completely biased thread on it. And I didn't "tun" into such a jerk.
I am a jerk. But based on the postings I've seen from you throughout the past few years, you are the king of all jerks. Go buy yourself a clue! >>
The yankees suck! They are a bunch of show offs and people hate that.
<< <i>Of course our starting pitching is a major concern. Thankfully we have hands down the best bullpen in MLB. If you haven't scored your runs by the 7th inning, fuggetaboutit. Another concern is the age of our line-up. Jeter, A-Roid, & Posada still have it in them, but won't forever. Let's hope this isn't the year they begin to slow down. Our catching position is another issue, we've got a young stud Montero coming up, Jorge has already been told he's not the #1 catcher. Can Russell Martin rebound & have a great year or will we have to rely on Cervelli again? (I actually like his arm & ability to get key hits). However in spite of all that, I still believe we'll reach the playoffs & after that who knows? After all, our division now only has one strong team (BoSux). The Rays had a fire sale and better hope ManRam gets back on the juice. The Jays & Orioles? Not to be mean but i absolutely don't see it. If our guys produce like they should (and can) then I see no reason to think The Bombers will be watching October baseball from the comfort of their own living rooms
No way the Yanks have the best bullpen hands down. Also, you have to get to that pen before you can use it.
Mo will have a solid 2011 and so will Soriano. Robertson and Joba will be average to just slightly above average, so the pen will be a plus overall.
The monster in the room is this: What happens IF they make it to short series baseball? Who do they throw out there to neutralize other playoff caliber starters? We all know pitching wins in October. Our vaunted offense pretty much did squat against the Rangers. So either they make a huge trade for a big arm in July or we pray a young stud emerges-- which is all too rare in the Yankee universe.
Another major October concern is the epic failures of both Swisher and Tex in the playoffs. For a laugh, take a look at their postseason Yankee stats. We're talking utter futility here. I don't think their averages add up to .300. And this is not a small sample space of PA's either. Around 100 AB's over two separate seasons. Swisher seems to want to be the man so bad that he psyches himself out. The struggles of these two the past two postseasons just cannot be ignored. We can hope, sure, (look how A-Rod exploded in '09), but their track record is all we have to discuss at this point.
If Swisher comes back to earth, Jeter maintains his garbage numbers from last year, Jorge declines, and Cano and Gardner stay even, we'd need A-Rod, Granderson, and Tex to make up the slack. Will Granderson bat .247 again? Is that who he really is?
If the 3/4/5 starters stink it up, the playoffs are out of the question. If we scrape through, we better have a new stud emerge or an established one via trade to compete in October. And say we do wind up in October with three viable starters (as we did last year), we need more production from our 2 and 3 hitters than what we got. 'Cause those two especially screwed the pooch.
<< <i>
<< <i>Of course our starting pitching is a major concern. Thankfully we have hands down the best bullpen in MLB. If you haven't scored your runs by the 7th inning, fuggetaboutit. Another concern is the age of our line-up. Jeter, A-Roid, & Posada still have it in them, but won't forever. Let's hope this isn't the year they begin to slow down. Our catching position is another issue, we've got a young stud Montero coming up, Jorge has already been told he's not the #1 catcher. Can Russell Martin rebound & have a great year or will we have to rely on Cervelli again? (I actually like his arm & ability to get key hits). However in spite of all that, I still believe we'll reach the playoffs & after that who knows? After all, our division now only has one strong team (BoSux). The Rays had a fire sale and better hope ManRam gets back on the juice. The Jays & Orioles? Not to be mean but i absolutely don't see it. If our guys produce like they should (and can) then I see no reason to think The Bombers will be watching October baseball from the comfort of their own living rooms
No way the Yanks have the best bullpen hands down. Also, you have to get to that pen before you can use it. >>
OH, they'll get to the pen early and often I predict.
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100 wins is highly unlikely for the Yankees this season.
<< <i>
As for their offense, every projection has their starters overall rebounding. But their reserves and DH should be vastly improved this year. Where you had guys like Cervelli, Pena, Kearns, Winn, and an ineffective Berkman, etc. getting the majority of at bats, those spots will now be replaced with the likes of Jones, Montero, Martin, Nunez, Posada, etc. I expect them to score close to, if not exceeding, 900 runs. And barring injury, I do expect them to be the best offensive team.
My concern is the playoffs because they don’t have the lockdown starters like the Phillies, Giants, Rays, to compete over a short series unless their offense is hot but great hitters get muted when facing pitchers most of the time. >>
I'm curious what projections have their offense rebounding overall. There is a lot of age creeping up on them, and while guys like Gardner and Cano are locks to repeat or improve (if that's even possible for Cano to improve - sheesh), guys like Jeets, Posada, and even Arod are either entering or smack in the middle of the age range where father time gets proven right time and again. As for young guys like Nova, our comments sound identical to what was said about Joba after his first swim - prospects don't improve on a straight line usually; more like a sawtooth with ups and downs.
I won't even comment on the idea that "most" projections have Burnett improving.
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Yankees are a team full of aging superstars with a couple of younger bright spots; the fact that you deny the many question marks about this team speaks to your general ignorance.
Are the Yankees a good team? Yes. Will the contend, probably.
Do they play in a tough, competitive division, yep. Will their age and injuries be a factor ? more than likely.
Will they win 100 games? Unlikely
Will they win 95 games. Maybe
Will they win 90 games? Probably.
<< <i>bking, it would be much easier to tell you the projections that don't have the Yankees' offense improving. Because I don't know of any of those. As for the the ones who project improvements, they include Bill James, fangraphs, PECOTA and other lesser well known systems. They mostly have a material improvement, as they all do for Burnett. While age is certainly a factor, that would primarily be where ARod, Jeter and Posada are concerned. ARod and Jeter fell so far, that there is plenty of room for expected improvement. If Jeter falls from here, he should be benched. As for Posada, he may not improve but he wasn't at all durable and the fact that he will be DHing may keep his star level offense on the field a lot more while minimizing his bloody awful defense. All of these are a plus and not remotely wishful thinking on any Yankee fan's part. Not saying it will all happen but it's easy to see how it will without stretching anyone's imagination but that of Yankee haters.
As for Burnett, why everyone is focusing on him is beyond me. He had a 5.26 ERA. Plenty of starters have put up that kind of number and much worse. AJ at least threw 181 innings, eating up some valuable innings. It wasn't anywhere near the "disaster" that people want to make it out to be. Josh Beckett was only able to throw a measly 127 innings and had a 5.84 ERA yet who is even remotely talking about that? The projections all have significant improvement for Burnett and I believe that he will improve and get his ERA at least down to the mid 4s. >>
I'll bet you one internet dollar they don't win 95. You keep "hoping" that the older guys will rebound without seeming to even acknowledge that most guys that age who falter for a year DON'T rebound. Also, I'm glad you're OK with a #3 guy who sported a 5.26, but most guys with that lofty a number aren't slotted in the front half of the rotation. Also, Montero isn't going to stick at C by most analysts' projections, so the demise of Posada is all the more painful. You may get by with a Montero/Cervelli platoon, but it's not exactly something I'd look forward to.
But, like I said, anyone with contrary opinions is just a hater, so what the hell do I know?
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With some guys improving and others declining, let's assume the offense performs at basically the same level.
A good point was raised in an earlier post that the Yanks won enough games to make the playoffs last year with two starters turning in awful seasons (namely AJ/Vazquez).
So let's assume for argument's sake that the 4 & 5 starters this year perform the same as last year's two bad starters (can we get any worse than AJ and Javy gave us last year?).
Now the Yanks can get the same production from this year's 1 & 2 (CC & Phil) starters as they got from last year's (CC & Andy).
So with two good starters, and two bad ones, that leaves this year's #3 guy (AJ) needing to perform at the level of last year's #3 guy (Phil).
Can AJ give the Yanks the 18-8 record that they'll need in this admittedly hypothetical scenario to end up with the same amount of wins?
Look at AJ's career numbers. I don't see the cause for hope with him, let alone why he's paid hefty #2 starter money. He's basically a .500 starter. His WP, HBP, and propensity for games where he implodes early and taxes the pen are undeniable. I believe he led all MLB in such 'epic fail' starts last year. That said, I admit logic would lure many to think he has no where to go but up from 2010. For me, though, he's scary weak mentally and I can just as easily see him sink to new depths. Maybe it's because I've been to so many of his turds in person, I don't know.
Also, if the O's improve we can't count on the same easy wins from them; they were playing good ball last September. I'm assuming for argument's sake the Sox and Rays switch places. So Yanks making playoffs will be interesting to watch, they could very easily do it, or just miss. Life is easier for them if lightening strikes and a stud arm emerges, or they get some ace in July, but those options are less likely than similar performance to last year.
I think the real problem as a Yankee fan is that they have made no major improvements when it comes to winning PLAYOFF SERIES. I can harp all day on how our 2 and 3 hitters are ghosts in over 100 post season AB's across two years now, but instead I'll just say this:
SWISHER
2009 ALDS: .083 AVG 4K 1RBI
2009 ALCS: .150 AVG 7K 0RBI
2009 WS: .133 AVG 4K 1RBI
2010 ALDS: .333 AVG 1K 1RBI
2010 ALCS: .091 AVG 7K 1RBI
TEX
2009 ALDS: .167 AVG 1K 1RBI
2009 ALCS: .222 AVG 8K 4RBI
2009 WS: .136 AVG 8K 3RBI
2010 ALDS: .308 AVG 2K 3RBI
2010 ALCS: .000 AVG 4K 0RBI
That pretty much speaks for itself. Now if that holds yet again and say Jeter continues to decline or even holds from last year (which is possible), we're saying the 1-3 hitters are not that good. Will Girardi have the sack to bat Gardner, Granderson (assuming he improves), Cano in the 1-3 slots and go with productivity over politics? Doubtful.
Now factor in CC, Phil, and AJ against other playoff starters... One bad game from CC and it's likely a wrap for the Yanks. We got mauled by the Rangers and we haven't improved, except Soriano. Yes, the Rangers lost Lee, but I am just using them as an example of a strong playoff team.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>As of now, it would be CC, Hughes, and Burnett + whomever performs out of spring training. I'm perfectly comfortable with Nova holding one of the spots. As for the dubiousness of their offense being the best, let's suppose you're right and they're not, even though they kicked everyone else's ass by a HUGE margin in 2010 with down years from several key players. just how far off the best do you think their offense is? >>
Not sure I'd call 41 runs - a quarter of a run per game - a "HUGE" margin.
Tabe >>
Statistically speaking, it IS pretty darn big. >>
Actually, no, it's not.
Especially when you factor in that 41 runs isn't even a large margin over 2nd place in the AL. In 2006, the Yankees had 60 more runs than 2nd place. 2007, it was 81 runs. 2008, it was 56 runs for Texas. 2009, it was 32 runs. So, in actuality, this HUGE margin was actually the 2nd smallest in the last 5 seasons. And 5th smallest in the last 10.
So the reality is that 41 runs is an AVERAGE margin by which a league leader outpaces 2nd place in runs scored.
Would we consider a guy winning the HR race 42-40 a HUGE margin? Nope. That's 5%.
So let's not overstate things, ok?
Tabe