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Moderns Guys: Interesting trends in Coin Market
GritsMan
Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭
Looking through the latest Coin Market in NN, and note some astonishing figures:
1) Non-key bullion plat eagles are now valued higher than their proof counterparts
2) The unc-w plats hardly command any premium now
3) AGE unc premiums seem very strong, e.g. $2,250 for a 1991 half, $1500 for the 1990
4) Most other 2008 issues are holding steady or falling slightly
Published prices are always suspect, but I find the first item especially astonishing. If people were actually collecting bullion platinum, I wouldn't be surprised because I'd guess that surviving, high-quality examples are hard to come by, but this imbalance is true across the dates--unless it's a misprint.
Your analyses?
1) Non-key bullion plat eagles are now valued higher than their proof counterparts
2) The unc-w plats hardly command any premium now
3) AGE unc premiums seem very strong, e.g. $2,250 for a 1991 half, $1500 for the 1990
4) Most other 2008 issues are holding steady or falling slightly
Published prices are always suspect, but I find the first item especially astonishing. If people were actually collecting bullion platinum, I wouldn't be surprised because I'd guess that surviving, high-quality examples are hard to come by, but this imbalance is true across the dates--unless it's a misprint.
Your analyses?
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Assuming this is the case (I do not subscribe anymore), since the non-key bullion plat eagles are selling regularly around spot or so (a somewhat better date set just took place at about $15 over spot on the dealer network) and since the proof counterparts are trading WAY over that amount, I would say NN has it wrong (IMHO) and probably needs to talk with myself or Eric Jordan to clear it up. Again, assuming that is indeed their position.
Wondercoin
Wondercoin
How are Kennedy's doing?
IKE's?
The name is LEE!
<< <i>Looking through the latest Coin Market in NN, and note some astonishing figures:
1) Non-key bullion plat eagles are now valued higher than their proof counterparts
2) The unc-w plats hardly command any premium now
3) AGE unc premiums seem very strong, e.g. $2,250 for a 1991 half, $1500 for the 1990
4) Most other 2008 issues are holding steady or falling slightly
Published prices are always suspect, but I find the first item especially astonishing. If people were actually collecting bullion platinum, I wouldn't be surprised because I'd guess that surviving, high-quality examples are hard to come by, but this imbalance is true across the dates--unless it's a misprint.
Your analyses? >>
1) Not true, despite whatever may be published. However the gap has closed because proof platinum has always ran hot and cold and right now the number of buyers for raw coins is way down.
2) Supply and demand.
3) A couple of retailers support this market consistently and sell them to their retail clients.
One primary point here. In almost every case, when bullion prices are perceived as low, the premium over bullion for many moderns is greater. Conversely, when the general consensus is that bullion prices are top heavy premiums shrink out of fear and due to the diminished number of people that can actually afford the higher prices.
John
John Maben
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Based on ebay sales, there do seem to be some cases where this is true, but many where it is not - especially in the 2004 and 2008 issues. But, it's not just an anomaly - it is happening in some cases.
2) The unc-w plats hardly command any premium now
The 2007-W Burnished Plats seem to be the weakest, and the 1 ozers seem to have trouble gaining traction. What surprises me most is that the recent Proofs (2009, 2010) are so much higher than many of the scarcer 1 oz. Proofs and even the 1 oz Burnished. I do think that the Burnished Plats are suffering because they are not as attractive as the Proofs, and not even as attractive as the early date Uncs.
3) AGE unc premiums seem very strong, e.g. $2,250 for a 1991 half, $1500 for the 1990
The key half oz AGEs have been climbing steadily for several years. I postponed buying a 1991 and I've watched both the 1990 and the 1991 keep climbing. All of the "W" Burnished AGEs seem to be doing the same thing, only on a faster pace than the early keys. It is exciting to watch, but I can't give you a reason for it. Are the "W" Burnished AGEs being heavily promoted somewhere?
4) Most other 2008 issues are holding steady or falling slightly
John Maben's reply details the reality of the premiums for these Modern Bullion keys. If you don't own them and still need one, the best time to acquire one is when bullion prices are up and premiums are down. They won't be getting much cheaper.
I knew it would happen.
Interesting comment that some of the bullion plats are MORE attractive than the unc-ws. Never thought of that, but definitely agree the proofs are "dah bomb".
Personally, I hope that the AGE price escalations are not just because of marketing. I think this is a great series to collect and hope it has some legs. I think that's a good possibility, too, since the 1990 and 1991s have had a premium for a long time now.
Sorry, no big news on the IKEs and Kennedys
I also agree that some of these prices are probably just plain wrong. APMEX is an interesting site to check out on pricing. I note, for instance, that their premiums on 2000 proof $50 plats are higher than the 2002s, even though the 2002 has a significantly lower mintage. So SOMEONE is paying attention, at least a little bit, to the series.
<< <i>Soinds like this is aimed more at "Bullion Guys" than Moderns Guys.
How are Kennedy's doing?
IKE's? >>
I agree. Should be titled Modern bullion. I tend to think of modern coins as post-64.
Any comments on the Roosevelt or Washington markets?
Also noted that the baseline prices for the Territorial and ATB quarters are higher than for a lot of the recent state quarters prices. Could reflect the lower mintages of these newer issues.
ttt
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>
<< <i>Looking through the latest Coin Market in NN, and note some astonishing figures:
1) Non-key bullion plat eagles are now valued higher than their proof counterparts
2) The unc-w plats hardly command any premium now
3) AGE unc premiums seem very strong, e.g. $2,250 for a 1991 half, $1500 for the 1990
4) Most other 2008 issues are holding steady or falling slightly
Published prices are always suspect, but I find the first item especially astonishing. If people were actually collecting bullion platinum, I wouldn't be surprised because I'd guess that surviving, high-quality examples are hard to come by, but this imbalance is true across the dates--unless it's a misprint.
Your analyses? >>
1) Not true, despite whatever may be published. However the gap has closed because proof platinum has always ran hot and cold and right now the number of buyers for raw coins is way down.
2) Supply and demand.
3) A couple of retailers support this market consistently and sell them to their retail clients.
One primary point here. In almost every case, when bullion prices are perceived as low, the premium over bullion for many moderns is greater. Conversely, when the general consensus is that bullion prices are top heavy premiums shrink out of fear and due to the diminished number of people that can actually afford the higher prices.
John >>
Good points, High material prices do compress numismatic premiums as we all know. Platinum is pricey and the buyers do run hot and cold.