Are collector grade cards a losing proposition?

jwgators

I am mostly talking about mid to low grade cards from the 50s-60s and mid-high grade cards from the 70s-80s.

Is there any way for these type of cards to hold their value or appreciate over time at this point? I just wonder since it seems like the populations of graded cards will keep growing over time and there is not much to spike interest in a retired Hall of Famer. Unless there is an influx of new collectors, it seems like supply will outstrip demand over time for non-elite graded cards.

I know there is value in the collecting and enjoyment of having the cards, I am talking outside of that. For instance is a small collection of cards (50, $100 value cards) today going to be worth anything in 30 years?

Just random thought while waiting for the clock to hit 5.

Sean1125

I think the highest of the high grades in 70's will go up because pop is so low. I don't have VCP or anything, but thisClemente 72 sold for quite a bit.

Downtown1974

I think they will always be good for the "collector" as far as value goes. However...for ambitious registry set owners, probably not alot of interest in low to mid grade vintage.

jwgators, I have always been against the thought of cards being used for investment purposes. Personally I dont think about the return I can get on my cards. Im sure even guys like Don Spence and Marshall Fogel have 401ks, IRAs and other retirement savings in place.

jwgators

I agree that collecting for the enjoyment and not the return on investment is key. I am not putting my retirement into these cards, but I hope to have something that may have some value in the future.

akuracy503

I think the grading bubble has burst and will not play as signficant role as far as pricing cards is concerned in the future.

Don't get me wrong grading cards will be critical for authenticating, but there are many flaws in population reports from resubmitting and I think more people will realize anything under a PSA 8 will really be a crapshoot in true grading technicalities.

With that said I truly think mid-grade stuff will get soft over time but the stuff with great eye appeal and "strong" for the grade will hold value.

Old school collecting days where grading was in the eye of the beholder will start making a comeback.

The range of prices for each grade will start not making sense as years pass...the low appeal stuff will go soft.

My honest opinion.

fkw

I disagree, I believe the "Slab Hype" / "Registry Hype" will die down somewhat, sooner than later.....
especially the Registration Hype (overinflated value of high grade common players of common sets ie 1950-70s Topps cards).

Also the so called "Pop Report" is never going to be accurate on 1950-70s Topps cards of Non-Star Players, way too many are unslabbed and never will be.

"Collector Grade Cards" are the most real of all cards, originally used for what they were intended for, collecting and playing with...... usually by kids.
High grade Vintage cards were not..... they were for many years either lost, hidden, abandoned, or intentionally never opened. They have no character.


"Collector Grade" common stuff, ie Topps/Bowman etc., should NEVER be graded in the first place. Unless there is a problem with forgeries of that particular issued/player.
A Grading Companies main intention is to weed out the fakes and altered cards.

High Grade "Slab Hype" has distorted the true value of baseball cards in last 20 years, especially the last 5-8 years.

The true value of a card should be based on what a "RAW" card in about EX+/NRMT condition sells for in the Real World... and a condition premium or discount should be applied from there..... like it used to be.

I collect vintage cardboard, not modern plastic...
When I opened a pack of cards back in 1979, I didnt find some plastic slabs inside next to the gum, I found baseball collector cards.

Stone193

No one knows for sure - I wish I had a crystal ball.

I think you answered the most important part of the equation - collecting - as such - is the reward.

I would be lying if I didn't say that I want my stuff to hold value...

I will say - I wouldn't be surprised if we revisit this thread in 10 years? Mid-grade material may be worth about what it is today - and depreciation? Have no idea.

Appreciation?

Well let's just say that the fun of collecting is dinner and appreciation dessert.

Happy collecting!!!

BunchOBull

I hope collector's grade cards fall in value. Gem Mint vintage cards are too sterile to me, and I wouldn't be inclined to buy them even if I had the pocketbook for them.

jwgators

I wish they would fall some more so I could afford to buy more. I think I spent my allotment of money for the next three months last week. The fun is in building sets and collecting Hall of Fame cards that I wanted to own as a kid and can now somewhat afford. Although I would be lying if I said it would be fine if they were worthless in 20 years.

jimrad

<< <i>No one knows for sure - I wish I had a crystal ball. >>



I know for sure and I don't have a crystal ball.

In 10 years all cards from 1976 and on will be worth considerably less than they are today. There is
0% chance that they will go up in value. Also mid grade cards from the 50's-70's are pretty much worthless
except for collecting purposes only. No chance of this being an avenue for $$ rewards.

Of course I think the economic doom that is coming will change the value system in the US dramatically.
I want to be wrong, but ......... it is what it is.

hofautos

i think if you stick to rookies of the better hof'ers, you are safe to at least keep up with inflation, but i do recommend you buy the best grade you can within your budget.

akuracy503

That's an interesting comment about keeping up with inflation, that would mean the price of these cards will need to gradually increase over the years in order to keep up with inflation.

In my opinion it will not happen.

Best case scenario a 1956 Mantle that sold for $500 today will still sell for $500 in ten years if you're lucky.
In return the buying power of $500 today won't be the same in ten years...




<< <i>i think if you stick to rookies of the better hof'ers, you are safe to at least keep up with inflation, but i do recommend you buy the best grade you can within your budget. >>

hofautos

I said if you stick with the better hofer rookies..
e.g. 1954 hank aaron, 1948 jackie, 1955 koufax, 1957 robinson, 1959 gibson, 1963 rose (non-hofer), 1967 carew/seaver, 1973 schmidt....



<< <i>That's an interesting comment about keeping up with inflation, that would mean the price of these cards will need to gradually increase over the years in order to keep up with inflation.

In my opinion it will not happen.

Best case scenario a 1956 Mantle that sold for $500 today will still sell for $500 in ten years if you're lucky.
In return the buying power of $500 today won't be the same in ten years...




<< <i>i think if you stick to rookies of the better hof'ers, you are safe to at least keep up with inflation, but i do recommend you buy the best grade you can within your budget. >>

>>

Autos4Alex

For me the main benefit of a graded card is so I can purchase something off the internet and know approximately what I'm getting. In person I can see creases and corners etc. On the internet it's hard to tell what you're getting even when the slabbed cards are scanned.

So grading has it's purpose, but fundamentally I think you're investing in the card not the 'graded card'.

Is card collecting a losing proposition? In today's market yes. It's all supply and demand if there were more collectors those cards could be worth a lot.

The problem is modern cards are just not as collected as they use to be. The market is smaller because of steroid use, companies making it difficult to collect , targeting of adult audiences instead of kid, packs have gotten more expensive, etc, etc. The list goes on and on, but it all boils down to there's not as many new collectors and some of the old ones die or lose interest. I spend a fair amount of money on cards and I don't even know what to buy today. I don't want a #ed anything, I just want a basic players card. If I want it signed I'll get it signed. If I want a jersey I'll buy a jersey. Maybe some effort into the design but not all this hubabaloo.

That being said the 'industry' has got plenty of chance to change. Look at stocks and those type of investments. Before the ipod apple was in the dumps. Just when you thought BP was going out of business and doomsday etc the company stabalized and the stock has almost doubled in value. There's lots of examples of what's unpopular today is popular tomorrow. Even cards in say the 70's weren't too popular. Will that happen again with cards? I would guess no, the reason being the digital age. Kids these days are less interested in cards and more interested in the digital world. It's hard to 'collect' things in the digital world. But who knows...marketers have done crazier things (people have snuggies!). If they find a way to appeal to a broader audience it just might make a comeback.

One other thing that no one touches on is those of us who are 30ish. Everyone gripes how there's millions of every card from say 85-95 and they're worth squat. While true, think of why that was. It was one of the golden ages of card collecting. For every 50 year card collector there aught to be 10s of 30 year old card collectors. I collected cards in that hay day and got online one day to sell some of my valuables like an 89 griffey. When I found out my cards were practically worthless I thought that sucks. But then I searched on ebay for the card I've always wanted a donruss elite will clark. Sure enough I could get all kinds of donruss elite will clarks for $2-$10 so I thought hey I'll buy one. Then I noticed all the other cool older cards I could never afford on my piddly allowance and were relatively cheap now and started swooping them up. Next thing you know I was sucked right back plopping down more than I should for things like 5K for a Babe Ruth. So maybe a few more of us 30 somethings from those boom years will go through their junk and get interested again. Just need more collectors from somewhere.

But like everyone else says collect because you can like it and assume your 50 cards are worth something only to you. If they're worth something to someone else one day then that's just gravy.

KeepItWarm

<< <i>I disagree, I believe the "Slab Hype" / "Registry Hype" will die down somewhat, sooner than later.....
especially the Registration Hype (overinflated value of high grade common players of common sets ie 1950-70s Topps cards).

Also the so called "Pop Report" is never going to be accurate on 1950-70s Topps cards of Non-Star Players, way too many are unslabbed and never will be.

"Collector Grade Cards" are the most real of all cards, originally used for what they were intended for, collecting and playing with...... usually by kids.
High grade Vintage cards were not..... they were for many years either lost, hidden, abandoned, or intentionally never opened. They have no character.


"Collector Grade" common stuff, ie Topps/Bowman etc., should NEVER be graded in the first place. Unless there is a problem with forgeries of that particular issued/player.
A Grading Companies main intention is to weed out the fakes and altered cards.

High Grade "Slab Hype" has distorted the true value of baseball cards in last 20 years, especially the last 5-8 years.

The true value of a card should be based on what a "RAW" card in about EX+/NRMT condition sells for in the Real World... and a condition premium or discount should be applied from there..... like it used to be.

I collect vintage cardboard, not modern plastic...
When I opened a pack of cards back in 1979, I didnt find some plastic slabs inside next to the gum, I found baseball collector cards. >>



best post I have read here since I joined.....every statement rings true to me

fiveniner

If I was in this hobby to make money it would be too much of a job or like playing the money game.This has been and always will be a fun thing for me.If I like it I buy it and condition and future value not considered.I have already been in the work force 45yrs and do not need another job to add stress to my life.Playing the investment game with cards is like of job which will certainley cause you stress when the bottom begins to fall.
HAVE FUN!!!