Is the US coin market healthy?

MrEureka

Is the US coin market healthy? And by healthy, I'm not referring to the short term direction of the market. I'm more interested in the fundamentals - whatever you think those may be - and the long term prospects for the hobby/business/market.

DRUNNER

I am doing a 40 table local SLC show Fri_Sat . . .and I'll report on it after . .

Drunner

BAJJERFAN

<< <i>I am doing a 40 table local SLC show Fri_Sat . . .and I'll report on it after . .

Drunner >>



Iffn ya see enny doilies there grab me a few, will ya Jeff?

melvin289

In my opinion, if you are trying to buy it seems healthy enough. By that I mean prices asked for coins. I don't know about if you are trying to sell.

Ron

cladking

Yes and no.

The biggest problems are aging demographic at the heart of the hobby, threat of counterfeiting,
dreck and doctored coins, general lack of leadership, rising costs of lower cost collections due to
increasing metals prices, overreliance on outside opinion as to values, macroeconomic forces, and
overestimation of the importance of grade in a collection.

But each of these negatives also have a counterbalancing positive. The TPG's are working on the
problems related to condition of coins and there is a wave of newer, younger, and more foreign
collectors swelling the ranks at the beginner and intermediate levels. Modern communication will
(and have already) speed many of these collectors to advanced status. Any damage rising metals
prices do to the long term for more common series will be a positive in the short run and might even
be a positive for the high end in the internediate term.

I'd say the current state is guarded but its condition should be expected to improve. The long term
is much rosier. In ten years or less we should start seeing some significant foreign interest in US
coins.

truthteller

<< <i>Is the US coin market healthy? And by healthy, I'm not referring to the short term direction of the market. I'm more interested in the fundamentals - whatever you think those may be - and the long term prospects for the hobby/business/market. >>




I hear some major coin dealers are trillions in debt. So the answer is yes.


TRUTH

RedTiger

As the old Henny Youngman joke goes, "compared to what?"
[How's your wife? Compared to what?]

Compared to other collectible markets, better than most, not as good as some. Better than stamps, better than baseball cards. Some other hobbies have seen more interest and record prices, like old Chinese pottery ($60 million plus for a Ming Vase), 20th century sculpture ($100 million plus for a "Walking man" sculpture).

There are always problems out there. There are always positives. Cladking gave a reasonable summary of both sides. A person can choose to focus mostly on the negatives or the positives. For the most part, the coin market is healthy, has been healthy, and will remain relatively healthy. Despite the criticisms directed at the U. S. Mint, these are relatively good times for coin collectors. Both in terms of new issues, with many new issues going up and holding up in value, and in terms of preservation and availability of classic coins.

Fortunately for coin dealers, coin collectors tend to have above average incomes, and tend to be savers, and those groups have done better than most groups during this economic downturn. Unlike some other recessions, I haven't seen many sad stories about established coin dealers unable to make a living. For the top tier "two-Ferrari" dealers, a good many are reporting boom times. For the smaller local dealers, the rising tide of the bullion boats, has lifted the tide for them. And all of this during very hard economic times for many other industries, many other businesses.

oreville

There is a giant sucking sound!

Cladking stated:



<< <i>In ten years or less we should start seeing some significant foreign interest in US coins. >>



I think it has already started.

cladking

I neglected to point out one of the major problems with the health of
the coin market. There is speculation creeping back into it. Fortunately
it is broader based than most times in th past so may be less destructive
when it implodes.

JapanJohn

60% healthy. Just joking.

Probably dependent upon all manner of economic factors. I'd say yes now and beware later pending some economic setbacks which are bound to happen. Then it probably depends on what segment you're in. Precious metals may of course be good and collectible old coins may not be worth nearly as much.

One could draw some comparison between the stamp collectors and coin collectors. As money becomes electronic as mail kinda mostly has, stamps aren't as valuable.

Of course just the opposite could happen with coins.

No matter what happens it'll be fun to watch I'm sure.

John

HalfStrike

With all of the coin doctors practicing these days it must not be healthy.

bidask

<< <i>There is a giant sucking sound!

Cladking stated:



<< <i>In ten years or less we should start seeing some significant foreign interest in US coins. >>



I think it has already started. >>

Most likely offset by US collectors showing new interest in foreign coins.

dbcoin

With very low interest rates, the hobby is fine. I can stick my money in a money market and make 0.08%; not much allure to that.

The economy is bifurcated; those with jobs are doing well, those without are in a depression.

By and large I have found coin collectors to be a terribly pessimistic lot. So the answers you will get here will vary from "meh, coins suck" to "meh, life sucks"

Me: I say coins are fun!!! When I watch David Hall's weekly coin market reports, he always ends with "have fun with your coins!!". Sound advice

RGT

<< <i>

<< <i>Is the US coin market healthy? And by healthy, I'm not referring to the short term direction of the market. I'm more interested in the fundamentals - whatever you think those may be - and the long term prospects for the hobby/business/market. >>




I hear some major coin dealers are trillions in debt. So the answer is yes.


TRUTH >>



You must be talking about the US govenment and the mint.

Baley

Is the US coin market healthy? I dunno:

Is the US weather nice?

Is the US economy strong?

Is the US population happy?

Is the US real estate desirable?

how much broader can we go in our inquiries?

truthteller

The upper end of the coin market is healthy because foreign and american buyers see this market as worthy of investment.

Everything not bullion related is flat to poor. Expect this for coins under $1000 for years to come.



TRUTH

Sonorandesertrat

<< <i>The upper end of the coin market is healthy because foreign and american buyers see this market as worthy of investment.

Everything not bullion related is flat to poor. Expect this for coins under $1000 for years to come.


TRUTH >>





Bullion trading is what is keeping many small coin shops in business. Go to typical coin shops and notice what is not in inventory---nice 19th-century collector coins aside from common Morgans---and notice that a similar thing is happening at coin shows and auctions. I thought that the recession would bring out lots of nice collector coins, but this didn't happen. These coins are being held by people who aren't financially pinched. This, together with some investor hoarding, is making life for boutique dealers harder (keeping up a decent inventory is getting increasingly hard) and dealer spreads have narrowed (because collectors have more options when selling) relative to several decades ago. There is no way that I could imagine being a dealer in today's market.

At the same time, life is getting more difficult for collectors too. $5,000 just won't buy a really interesting coin anymore. What concerns me more are the increasingly sophisticated counterfeits and doctored coins. In another decade or two, the only 'safe' coins to buy above ca. $3,000 (in today's dollars) will be ones that can be clearly tied to pre-2007 auction catalogs.

I am not convinced that the long-term prognosis for the coin market is good. Markets for other collectibles (e.g., stamps and baseball cards) have taken a beating. If the high-end collectors (ca. $10K and up coins) and investors exit in significant numbers, there will be real trouble.

johnny9434

people are saying its kinda weak in this area. who cares as long as were out of the recession ( ? )

Bear

1. Money from banks is very tight

2. Even businesspeople with good credit who pay on time
might be caught in the downward cycle of misfortune.

3.Federal, state and municipal debt is not looking too good.

4. Interest charged is high, interest paid is low.

5. The Coin Market is split into sever major pieces.

a. Foreign

b. Very high end gold proof type. Thank goodness for the japanese

c. High end type

d. Average type,circulated, common B & M dealers

e. Numismatica

f. Niche dealers....Toned coins, Morgan dollars, rare but unpopular series


So, which coin market are we talking about?

sinin1

some parts of it are healthy

some parts of it are dying


say, when are the classic commems going to rebound? or did I miss the bottom?

coinkat

Too broad of a question-

Bear

Pretty much like the population. Some are rolling in money,

some are barely hanging on and many are utterly screwed.

Folks seem to go from 2nd place to third place, pretty darned quick.

It can even happen to Wise Old Bears.