Ariticle on Voros McCracken-Batting Average on Balls in Play
markj111
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in Sports Talk
I highly recommend the article at http://www.thepostgame.com/features/201101/sabermetrician-exile#
Neyer has a link to it. This is the guy who proved (yes-proved) that the batting average on balls in plays (BABIP) is extremely close to random.
Excerpt-McCracken checked and re-checked the numbers until they winnowed away the thought that there had to be a mistake. His hypothesis was correct. Pitchers control three things: strikeouts, walks and home runs -- defense-independent pitching statistics, he called them, shortened to DIPS, which isn't exactly the sort of acronym on which careers are made. Everything else -- including hits allowed -- involves a pitcher's eight teammates and thus is prone to wild fluctuations. Some years, more balls fall for hits. In others, they don't. In 1999, Pedro Martinez gave up the third-highest batting average on balls in play. The next year, he allowed the lowest.
Neyer has a link to it. This is the guy who proved (yes-proved) that the batting average on balls in plays (BABIP) is extremely close to random.
Excerpt-McCracken checked and re-checked the numbers until they winnowed away the thought that there had to be a mistake. His hypothesis was correct. Pitchers control three things: strikeouts, walks and home runs -- defense-independent pitching statistics, he called them, shortened to DIPS, which isn't exactly the sort of acronym on which careers are made. Everything else -- including hits allowed -- involves a pitcher's eight teammates and thus is prone to wild fluctuations. Some years, more balls fall for hits. In others, they don't. In 1999, Pedro Martinez gave up the third-highest batting average on balls in play. The next year, he allowed the lowest.
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