Jack Morris & Barry Larkin - Hall of Fame Locks

PowderedH2O

Like it or not. I was just looking through the voting. Did you know that in the history of the Baseball Hall of Fame only one player (Gil Hodges) has ever gotten 50% of the votes and not eventually made the Hall? Some of them have had long slow climbs, but eventually they made it. Both Morris and Larkin had over 50% recently. This likely means it is just a matter of time, unless the Hall voters suddenly change their patterns dramatically.

PowderedH2O

I would agree with that entirely. I am just looking at it based upon voting history, not as to whether they deserve it or not.

digicat

The old Veterans Committee got some of those +50% guys in. Gil Hodges (and any newcomers) have been getting blocked by the new Veterans Committee, which was modified a few times in the past 10 years.

CEOBIDMC

I'd rather have Gil Hodges over Jack Morris; Larkin will get in, but I wish had played a couple of full seasons in his career

Mickey71

How many years does Morris have left on the ballot?

Saberman

Unfortunately, Morris may get in...and just compound recent mistakes.


'Pitching to the score' is alive and well, LOL.


Look on the bright side, this is actually one way to get Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker into the HOF! After all, they are responsible for more Tiger 'wins' than Jack Morris. That Jack Morris win total that those gentlemen had such a great role in, may be the way to recognize their superior HOF merit, since it was completely previously overlooked because of ignorance by writers and fans.



The HOF is becoming an interesting thing now. If MOrris gets elected, and with some recent elections...the following players have actually been elected too, because they are just as responsible(or more responsible) for the candidate to get elected as the candidate himself was!

Wade Boggs(well he was elected twice)
Fred Lynn
Fenway Park

Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker
Kirk Gibson. Yup, Gibby was more deserving than Morris.

I will get off of Morris's case if he does one thing. All he has to do is say something to the effect of..."If it wasn't for guys like Trammell, Whitaker, and Gibson...I would not be standing here right now. This induction is just as much a reflection on them(or more so), than it is of me."


Instead of multi player rookie cards...some of these elected guys need multi player HOF plaques!



Fans, if you want to elect a pitcher for all those criteria that are typically assigned to Morris, there is another guy from his own era that has him beat handily...and that is Orel Hershiser.

lanemyer85

Larkin will get in, probably in 2012, and he should

Jeter - .314/.385/.452 for his career with 27.1 WAR2, 70.4 fWAR, 70.1 rWAR and 64.3 WARP.

Larkin - .295/.371/.444 for his career with 43.2 WAR2, 69.8 fWAR, 68.9 rWAR and 86.2 WARP, and 64.5 win shares - good for #73 all-time, just behind Jackie Robinson, Billy Williams, and Winfield.


While Jeter will have at least 3 more years to pad his offensive counting stats, only Michael Young (-71.6) and Toby Harrah (-97.0) have worse than a -50 run value for defense, Jeter is -113.4 meaning he is/was stratospherically awful defensively.



I still don't see Morris getting in (nor should he). FWIW, his vote total marginally increased from 2010 (+1.2). Still a long way to go.

I've posted this before and I think he gets a little overrated because he probably was the best SP of the 80's. Primarily the result of having Clemens/Gooden/Hershiser etc come in at the middle of the decade combined with a strong falloff/general lack of elite level talent from Guidry etc and virtually any other SP that debuted in the mid to late 70's. It also helps Morris' cause with his post-season record 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA (though he was at 7-2 with a 2.60 ERA before getting his ears pinned back in his final postseason in 1992 with the Blue Jays). In reality, both Trammell and Whitaker have stronger cases, and quite frankly, if it's taken this long for a superior SP like Blyleven, then Morris is a pretty clear no.

Pitcher-------- W---- -L---- IP----ERA--ERA+---HoFS
Bert Blyleven 287--250-4970---3.31-118-----50.0
Jack Morris--- 254--186-3824---3.90-105-----39.0


Pitcher----PRAR----PRAA-----Carer---Peak----JAWS
Blyleven---871-----363------ 92.4----49.3------70.9
Morris----- 346---- -78------ 36.2----27.3------31.8

HoFS and HoFM are the Bill James Hall of Fame Standards and Hall of Fame Monitor. PRAR = pitcher runs above replacement level, PRAA = pitcher runs above average. JAWS is a given player's average peak WARP to that of the rest of his career WARP.

Saberman

Lane, Jack Morris was not the best pitcher of the 80's. There are two ways to look at it. The first, and most valid, is the fact that many of Morris's contemporaries just didn't have their primes over the entire 80's like he did. The great pitchers of the 70/early 80's like Carlton and Seaver were clearly better. Just because the 80's saw their old man years, it dragged down their 80's numbers. YOU POINTED THAT OUT ALREADY. But for the first half of the 80's, Carlton was much better than Morris.

Than you have the guys like Clemens, Gooden, Hershisher, and Saberhagen who just started four years too late into the 80's to match Morris in IP totals for the decade. However, they were all better than Morris's career. In fact, I think a case could be made for Clemens to be a better pitcher for the entire 80's decade, despite not pitching in the first four years of the decade.

BUT, there is one guy who did pitch in the entire 80's who was CLEARLY superior to Morris, and that is Dave Stieb. Here is how they match up for the 80's decade.

Stieb........Morris
2,321 IP 2,443
3.32 ERA 3.66
127 ERA+ 109
1.221 WHIP 1.256

A clear advantage for Stieb

Then you have Nolan Ran who had an ERA+ of 111 for the decade, and with similar innings. Fernando, same thing!

So you have one pitcher who was clearly superior for the entire decade, and two slightly better or equal.

Then a handful of guys who just didn't have their career start/end fall in the same arbitrary dateline. Why 1980-1989?? Is that somehow more spectacular or important than 1984-1993, or 1977-1986??? I know Lanemeyer recognizes this...but many don't.

Morris gets the recognition for two things, the bloated win total because of his team, and a couple of good performances in the post season(they somehow ignore or overlook his horrible post season performances). Hershiser was much better in the post season by the way.

lanemyer85

yeah I didn't clarify that as I should have. I meant that Morris is widely regarded as the best SP of the 80's largely due to his post-season record. (7-2, 2.60 ERA) before his stint in TOR. I'd also take Stieb over Morris, though I'd have to take a close look at Ryan vs Morris..if for nothing more than Morris pitched in a bandbox, and Ryan in an extreme pitcher's park.

Saberman

lane, I figured you recognized that..I was posting it for the masses

I did just a quick scan of Ryan and Fernando for the 80's...it would basically be a toss up between them and Morris.

Bob Welch is right there with him too for the decade.

Tabe

<< <i>yeah I didn't clarify that as I should have. I meant that Morris is widely regarded as the best SP of the 80's largely due to his post-season record. (7-2, 2.60 ERA) before his stint in TOR. I'd also take Stieb over Morris, though I'd have to take a close look at Ryan vs Morris..if for nothing more than Morris pitched in a bandbox, and Ryan in an extreme pitcher's park. >>


In the 1980s, Morris pitched in Tiger Stadium. Tiger Stadium had the following ballpark effect #s in the 1980s: 102, 103, 99, 96, 98, 98, 99, 95, 97, 99. Anything below 100 means the park favored pitchers. Not exactly what I'd call a bandbox.

Tabe

lanemyer85

I'm talking HR inflation...as you see below. #2 in the AL behind the old ultimate bandbox in SEA over the course of the 80's. What are you referring to? Total runs unadjusted?

Kingdome 1.55
Tiger Stadium 1.21
Fenway Park 1.02
Minny dome 1.00
Cleveland Muni 1.00
Arlington Stadium 0.94
Oakland Coliseum 0.93
Yankee Stadium 0.92
Anaheim Stadium 0.86
County Stadium 0.85
Comiskey Park 0.79
Kaufman Stadium 0.77
Memorial Stadium 0.76

Even in total runs Tigre Stadium is right there with current launching pads like US Cellular & Arlington historically

Link

DeutscherGeist

I don't have a problem with Larkin going into the HOF.

With Morris, things are not so straight forward. He was top 10 in ERA+ only 4 times in his career. I am not too well versed in some of the other stats you guys proposed, but its seems that he was a great pitcher nonetheless.

There have not been many starting pitchers voted in the last 10 years or so. But with Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Johnson, Martinez coming up, I think we will have enough.

No one doubts that those 5 will make it. That will be a crowded ballot

Nothing against Morris, its just that there were too many pitchers better not in yet. One can use sportsmanship and character to make a better case for Morris, but then you have Mike Mussina coming up on the ballot who was top 10 in ERA+ eleven times and was notable in the post-season too, performance wise.

I know that both Alomar and Blyleven deserved their induction, but TWO players elected in one year? That will make the HOF less exclusive. We are going to have some really good players come up on the ballot in the next few years and it looks like there will be two or more players voted in the next series of HOF voting.

Tabe

<< <i>I'm talking HR inflation...as you see below. #2 in the AL behind the old ultimate bandbox in SEA over the course of the 80's. What are you referring to? Total runs unadjusted? >>


I'm referring to PPF (pitching park factor):

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/attend.shtml

Detroit's short porch in RF undoubtedly cost Morris some runs but its gargantuan CF, LCF, and RCF undoubtedly saved a ton as well.

Tabe

lanemyer85

I figured it was something along those lines though most of these sites have their own criteria for park factors thus they fluctuate. I'd agree with some of that aside from right CF in Tiger Stadium which was 370 FT. That said, larger OFs also can inflate hit totals. For example, Coors isn't just a lauching pad for HRs. It's a freaking ginormous OF and thus a ton of cheap hits fall in front of OFers. Coors still had the 2nd largest HR allowed total, but was 62 behind the Cell. In relation, Coors was far and away - over 200 more runs, and nearly 150 more hits allowed than second place Yankee Stadium. So it can work both ways.