This Heritage auction was the toughest for buyers in three years

Bayard1908

I had more difficulty buying in this FUN auction than any other Heritage auction since the market peaked in mid-2008. Aberration or sign of things to come?

RYK

Certain niches in my general area of interest (19th century US gold) were extremely strong. I did not see the coins in person and cannot judge whether I would have paid the high prices.

The one coin I sold, however, sold for about 30% less than it did at the Heritage FUN sale in 2008.

So I guess it was, as it always is, a mixed bag.

PawPaul

From what I observed in the two big auctions , bidding was strong and feverish .....

I was stunned at the amount of money that poured into buying rare coins

Barndog

<< <i>Certain niches in my general area of interest (19th century US gold) were extremely strong. I did not see the coins in person and cannot judge whether I would have paid the high prices.

The one coin I sold, however, sold for about 30% less than it did at the Heritage FUN sale in 2008.

So I guess it was, as it always is, a mixed bag. >>



yes. A few of the coins I tracked sold for bargain prices.

ANACONDA

Like I said, coin prices for the best truly rare coins are going to skyrocket in the next year or two.

coinguy1

<< <i>Like I said, coin prices for the best truly rare coins are going to skyrocket in the next year or two. >>

And what about the other 99.9% of the market? What is your prediction for that?

henson4

I agree the auction had quite a strong turnout this year

Bochiman

<< <i>Like I said, coin prices for the best truly rare coins are going to skyrocket in the next year or two. >>



Hasn't that pretty much always been true?
When have the "best truly rare coins" NOT gone for high prices?

bidask

<< <i>This variation is rather interesting.......some series go for moon money and some go for man hole money in the same auction in large numbers. >>

I like the phrase you coined realone... 'man hole money'......

ANACONDA

<< <i>

<< <i>Like I said, coin prices for the best truly rare coins are going to skyrocket in the next year or two. >>



Hasn't that pretty much always been true?
When have the "best truly rare coins" NOT gone for high prices? >>



There is a difference between coins going up in value and coins being expensive.

LindeDad

<< <i>

<< <i>Like I said, coin prices for the best truly rare coins are going to skyrocket in the next year or two. >>

And what about the other 99.9% of the market? What is your prediction for that? >>



Well if 99.9% of the boat is under water you better be on a submarine or your sunk.

keyman64

Funny. I was watching items of interest. Over the weeks I narrowed that list to THREE items. In the closing days all were within reach...BUT I KNEW 2 of them were going to go for stupid money which I wasn't in the mood to chase after this go around...and I was right...I only bid on ONE item and got it for $18 less than PCGS price guide including juice which I considered reasonable for the CAC'd item.

OnlyGoldIsMoney

So far I am 1 for 1 buying. The final price was lower than I expected to pay.

The 19th century gold I consigned is bringing what I expected with no surprises.

GoldenEyeNumismatics

I was blown out of the water.

drei3ree

I am 2 of 4 @ HA and paid what I expected. I have a hard time believing that we won't have 5-7% inflation over the next decade, so hard assets will undoubtedly move from bottom left to upper right on the line charts!

lava

I don't think you can speak in generalities and make conclusions about FUN. It depends on the coin. Show us a coin and we might come to a consensus about what it should have sold for and where it will go in the future. Just because you lost an auction or two may not indicate anything.

Bayard1908

<< <i>I don't think you can speak in generalities and make conclusions about FUN. It depends on the coin. Show us a coin and we might come to a consensus about what it should have sold for and where it will go in the future. Just because you lost an auction or two may not indicate anything. >>



I place dozens of bids in every Heritage auction. That's enough data points to characterize the auction.

AnkurJ

Two of the bust halves I won went for less than previous heritage auctions. Both PCGS, one with a CAC sticker.

earlyAurum

I bid 30% over the record auction price for an early gold coin and it went for 50% the record price. I was practically sure I would be the winner. Funny thing is who know where it would have sold if I had tried to battle it out with the winner.

lava

<< <i>

<< <i>I don't think you can speak in generalities and make conclusions about FUN. It depends on the coin. Show us a coin and we might come to a consensus about what it should have sold for and where it will go in the future. Just because you lost an auction or two may not indicate anything. >>



I place dozens of bids in every Heritage auction. That's enough data points to characterize the auction. >>



I think that is a valuable insight to the question you posed. I would think aberration jumps would be spotty.

I had a ridiculously tough time bidding on bust halves, but I think the Allgood Collection offered a lot of great coins, and the market responded. I am wondering if these prices will prompt another longtime collector to sell. My guess is yes and prices would remain strong, but my comments are particular to bust halves.

Barndog

can someone provide me a link to a thread that featured lots of agreement by people who posted to the thread and the thread's title or main point was something like "Company X's auctions had lots of really good coins selling for next to nothing and I won every coin I bid on at prices that were well below my max"?

didn't think so

llafoe

<< <i>can someone provide me a link to a thread that featured lots of agreement by people who posted to the thread and the thread's title or main point was something like "Company X's auctions had lots of really good coins selling for next to nothing and I won every coin I bid on at prices that were well below my max"?

didn't think so >>



Can someone provide me a link to a thread that deciphered Barndog's above post?

shorecoll

I think the bust halves were reasonable and I think there were no bargains in the Barbers, but time will tell.

Bear

On the Barbers, are we talking UNCs and Gems or High Mid Grades XF also?

coinguy1

<< <i>

<< <i>I don't think you can speak in generalities and make conclusions about FUN. It depends on the coin. Show us a coin and we might come to a consensus about what it should have sold for and where it will go in the future. Just because you lost an auction or two may not indicate anything. >>



I place dozens of bids in every Heritage auction. That's enough data points to characterize the auction. >>

I place dozens of bids in most Heritage auctions, even if not in all of them, like you do. And I do not share your sentiments about the sale being the toughest in three years for buyers. As is just about always the case, the results were mixed, depending upon things such as the type and/or quality of the particular coins.

JustMe2

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>I don't think you can speak in generalities and make conclusions about FUN. It depends on the coin. Show us a coin and we might come to a consensus about what it should have sold for and where it will go in the future. Just because you lost an auction or two may not indicate anything. >>



I place dozens of bids in every Heritage auction. That's enough data points to characterize the auction. >>

I place dozens of bids in most Heritage auctions, even if not in all of them, like you do. And I do not share your sentiments about the sale being the toughest in three years for buyers. As is just about always the case, the results were mixed, depending upon things such as the type and/or quality of the particular coins. >>



I don't place any bids. I just look at the results which gives me every data point there is...

MrEureka

This variation is rather interesting.......some series go for moon money and some go for man hole money in the same auction in large numbers.

My focus on the FUN sale was on the patterns and the errors. I found prices to be very erratic, with both runaway prices and bargains.

MrEureka

<< Like I said, coin prices for the best truly rare coins are going to skyrocket in the next year or two. >>


Hasn't that pretty much always been true?
When have the "best truly rare coins" NOT gone for high prices?


Well, my sale of the Amon Carter 1794 Dollar and Julian's sale of J-1776 come to mind. And the list can go on and on.

roadrunner

In following the price of the 1860 NGC MS67 cac half it shows a decidedly upbeat trend over the past 2 yrs.

This coin brought $63K at the heat of the market at FEB 2008 Long Beach where multiple whales fought over it.
That price was nuts as $45-50K may have been all the money imo for that time period.

A near twin NGC67 cac pop 1 (different date) bid to <$25K in March 2009 and did not meet reserve. A huge drop on paper.

The 1860 half just rebounded to $36K which seemed strong imo. I would have figured it at $28K to $33K. The price has certainly yo-yo'd over the past 3 years. But there were no buyers other than at fire sale prices 2 yrs ago. At least that has changed for the time being. But this is probably a finest known/graded specimen. Other seated type I looked at didn't bring really strong numbers. Pop 1 CAC coins are still the rage but that's <1% of this market. If this coin were in a PCGS 67 holder it could have brought $45K to $55K as a registry set candidate pop 1. That would be in line with what similar seated & barber halves in PCGS holders have been bringing. But in looking at the blow ups of this coin I think there are too many reverse field tics for this to comfortably meet PCGS 67 standards today. It's still the only CAC'd 67 from either service so hence a still strong price of $36K. Only 4 CAC 67's are graded for the entire no motto type which makes them pretty scarce. In fact there are only 4 MS67's from the entire run of 1839-1878. If not for the few dozen super gems of the hoarded 1879-90 dates, there would be essentially no superb gems for collectors today. I also found it odd that while checking CAC pops that my old 1874-s in PCGS MS66 (ex James Stack, Jim Pryor) no longer shows up at CAC.

The following half dime has been in 3 successive FUN auctions since 2009. I watched this coin sell for $21,850 back in Jan. 2009. It sold for >$20K because it was graded 68*, not because it was that much finer than the high end PCGS 67's that fetched $8K-12K at the time. I had a twin to that piece (but with no fingerprint) that graded 67* that I let go in March 2009 for $10K. I never got the 68* home run that the other coin did even though my coin was graded 67 back in 1990 and had more stunning toning and luster. In the last 2 FUN sales the 68* coin has brought $16,100 and now $12,650. Not a good trend. It is basically approaching the prices of solidly graded 67+ coins.
1838 half dime MS68*

This 1839 half fetched $172K which to me is still astounding. I don't know what it brought a few years ago but it was probably up to 2X this price. While it's the finest graded by 2 pts I graded the coin as a 64 back in 2003 when it was being shown as part of the world's finest type coin collection. The massive rub on Liberty's leg is quite obvious in the blown up photos along with high pt rub in all the expected places. The luster in the fields thin out as you get near the centers. It realized considerably below the various 67 and 66 price guides. I don't know how it ever received a 67 grade, let alone even a 66. Has to be the toning and "eye appeal." In my mind a PCGS 66 pop 1 highest graded of this date would be worth > $172K and if CAC'd even more. So that's good reason why it's remained in the NGC 67 holder. Yeah, nearly all of these are flatly struck in the centers but Liberty's leg needs to be a lot better than this for a 66 or 67 grade (ie one tone rather than 2 tone).

1839 no drapery half NGC MS67

Another specimen that fetched $94K last year.
NGC MS65 1839 nd half

roadrunner

BigE

<< <i>can someone provide me a link to a thread that featured lots of agreement by people who posted to the thread and the thread's title or main point was something like "Company X's auctions had lots of really good coins selling for next to nothing and I won every coin I bid on at prices that were well below my max"?

didn't think so >>




This is true, and you also dont see as many posts here saying how the PCGS Price Guide is way out on the high side either--------------------BigE

Manorcourtman

I went 7 for 12. Of course I was not chasing ultra rare issues. I thought there were many bargains to be had. Or maybe my perception of bargains is out of date and a sign of a weakening market. Dunno. Some of the mid-grade Barbers that I follow sold for very stupid high money. But that was not unexpected. I was not a participant in that madness!

ColonialCoinUnion

<< <i>This variation is rather interesting.......some series go for moon money and some go for man hole money in the same auction in large numbers.

My focus on the FUN sale was on the patterns and the errors. I found prices to be very erratic, with both runaway prices and bargains. >>



In our areas of specialty, we found the same thing. In such cases, we really enjoy buying the bargains, and watching other people buy the runaways.

BaronVonBaugh

I started out watching 48 items. I won one. About a dozen went high. The rest went fairly reasonable.
I just didn't have the money to take advantage of the prices. Plus a coin popped up on ebay that I really wanted.

ANACONDA

<< <i>

<< <i>Like I said, coin prices for the best truly rare coins are going to skyrocket in the next year or two. >>

And what about the other 99.9% of the market? What is your prediction for that? >>



Well, Mark, in the words of David Byrne...."Same as it ever was......same as it ever was....."

jhdfla

<< <i> This variation is rather interesting.......some series go for moon money and some go for man hole money in the same auction in large numbers. >>



I thought the 1844-O Norweb half should have brought a lot more than it did. This was a good example of a great coin that did not fetch "moon money".

derryb

Seems I read something about an ebay shill bidder convention in Tampa this past weekend.

AnkurJ

I spoke to a dealer yesteday regarding bust halves in the Heritage auction. He bought two of the ones I was looking at, but passed because they were going very high. The dealer said that for PQ early type, the prices that you have to pay were high. He won one of the lots for less than his high bid , and will easily resell it for more.

Basically what I am saying is, a lot of the runaway lots were purchased by dealers. I sense there will be a price adjustment soon with early halves in AU and up.