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Market Supply/Demand

I have yet to experience such a slow market. I can not find any high grade Taler materials in the past 6 months. I search online dealer websites, upcoming Heritage auctions. Conclusion: Limited supply for these.

I believe we will see a dislocated market for some time. Sellers are not selling (yet) while buyers are scooping up every higher grade piece they can get their hands on.

Any thoughts here?

Comments

  • ormandhormandh Posts: 3,111 ✭✭✭
    I will agree with you, especially with the fact that the more desirable pieces are not being offered. I really think that in a market like this, people are not selling!! I think that people are really thinking that they need to hold onto anything that they feel has value. I am speaking from some experience here. -Dan
  • ZoharZohar Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Maybe they dont believe that the payment (dollars) will be worth anything down the line. This kind of makes the value inflation proof I guess.
  • ormandhormandh Posts: 3,111 ✭✭✭
    Maybe. I am seeing that people do not want to get rid of hings because they see the inflation of silver and gold. I have offered strong money for collections, but am finding that they are just getting valuations and not committing to selling. I am talking about mostly uninformed people. But yet, even explaining to them that retail versus a fair offer are different things, most of them are wanting retail instead of fair market value. I am always fair with my offers to buy a person's collection, and I always disclose what they have and what I am willing to offer which is usually 70% or more for the value. But, I am finding it more the case that they want 100%. On larger collections, I would definitely be willing to go higher, but with a $300 collection I have a harder time with that. I feel that people are expecting moon money for anything that they have, especially when they go onto any site on the internet that they can use to say that it is worth more, even at a worse grade.

    I will say that it is much easier getting a decent coin from a dealer than it is from an individual. JMHO. -Dan
  • JCMhoustonJCMhouston Posts: 5,306 ✭✭✭
    I agree, I think that is why when something really nice does come up it goes way over the top on price.
  • ZoharZohar Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Dan - I hear you.

    As a collector, I have had very good experience with the few dealers I work with and definitely people on this forum.

    Find me a Taler please image
  • Silvereagle82Silvereagle82 Posts: 1,219 ✭✭✭
    I definitely find a slow market in the world gold that interest me. Particuliarly in the nice grades. Both dealers and auction house seem to be thin on the less common/ unique pieces.
    I agree with ormandh, I think the ever escalating gold market has people sitting on the nice stuff hoping to wait it out a little longer for what they perceive will be the "top" of the market.

    I have the powder but haven't had much to shoot at lately image .. of course patience and persistence are my dear friends image
  • ormandhormandh Posts: 3,111 ✭✭✭
    I wish that I had the chance to see a thaler in ANY collection, but to be honest with you I have not seen the first one. I am usually the one that sees the tailings of any given collection, if that. I wish that I had first dibs on a TRUE collection, because I would definitively pay stronger money than any dealer, I promise you that. -Dan
  • In my experience most good coins hit the show circuit before the internet. I'm always buying fresh material at shows (and real collections, including a small Swiss medal collection and a nice ancient/medieval gold collection at the last Baltimore *duck*) but with a coin show nearly every weekend (42 in 2010) there's just no time to make price lists. Even for dealers with a huge online presence it's just so easy to sell the coins at shows that they're already at. Take the time to travel to a major show and you will see some nice material out for sale at a lot of tables. Or find a dealer in your field of interest that's willing to work your wantlist.

    Also Zohar, are you watching the European auctions? Not much slabbed, but a lot of prachtexamplar material nonetheless. A fair amount of your kind of stuff that ends up slabbed on the US market is sold there raw first.

    Price is definitely another matter though. When I buy nice material in my current area of focus I often have to pay more than what I sold the last piece for. Seems crazy to me but all the old time dealers are telling me that's how it goes in a bull market.

    If someone seldom handles a certain issue then how can that person know what a strong price is? Auction results and price lists from knowledgable dealers in the country of issue, or ebay completed auctions and the Krause catalog? There are coins worth 40x Krause and coins not worth 40%. It's easy to pay stronger than a disinterested US dealer but if you're paying more than the top dealers in that field chances are you're the end buyer - not that there's anything wrong with that if you're a collector, investor, or speculator. I agree that it can be much easier to buy from dealers though - dealers definitely want to sell!
  • ZoharZohar Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Lancastercoin I agree in part. With the past year Euro uptick vs. Dollar it had become quite pricey buying in Europe (combining hammer and shipping fees). Add to that the European standards of grading specifically when it comes to cleaning are not consistent with US and imagery on these auction sites at times doesnt capture the coin surfaces.

    Regarding shows I believe you are right. Problem here in NYC is the lack of them. Hopefully the January show will make up for the past months.

    Thank you.


  • << <i>I wish that I had the chance to see a thaler in ANY collection, but to be honest with you I have not seen the first one. I am usually the one that sees the tailings of any given collection, if that. I wish that I had first dibs on a TRUE collection, because I would definitively pay stronger money than any dealer, I promise you that. -Dan >>



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  • dizzleccdizzlecc Posts: 1,111 ✭✭✭
    I think the supply is there, you have to be patient. The really nice material tends to come in waves. It is different from modern stuff that seems generally available from mulituple sources.
  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,209 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The NYINC next month should be a bonanza for your area. Many European dealers and the multiple auctions will leave you gasping for air (or money)

    I noticed you are trying to put together a collection(s) in minimum amount of months. You will get more nejoyment if you are more patient and build it up over time.

    You will also have less panic attacks image
  • ZoharZohar Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Marcmoish. I reason the lack of patience also with a long term, inflation protecting investment. I dont see a much better place to put US dollars to work.
  • DeutscherGeistDeutscherGeist Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭
    It is a bull market, so the demand far exceeds the supply. Not hard to conceptualize at all. The really nice Talers are not going to sell for a regular price because those keep increasing in value. Unless someone needs money right away, there is no point to sell these nice pieces. It really is a bad time to buy.

    The coin market is on an upswing. Can't say that for baseball cards and much less for stamps.
    "So many of our DREAMS at first seem impossible, then they seem improbable, and then, when we SUMMON THE WILL they soon become INEVITABLE "- Christopher Reeve

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  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>It is a bull market, so the demand far exceeds the supply. Not hard to conceptualize at all. The really nice Talers are not going to sell for a regular price because those keep increasing in value. Unless someone needs money right away, there is no point to sell these nice pieces. It really is a bad time to buy.

    The coin market is on an upswing. Can't say that for baseball cards and much less for stamps. >>

    What grades are on the upswing?
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • DeutscherGeistDeutscherGeist Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭
    What grades are on the upswing?

    It depends on the coin. If the coin is plentiful and modern, there will be tons of MS62s for example. No big deal. If its a coin from 1654 from a German state, an MS 62 is on the upswing because few if any get that grade. Its the top tier grades that are highly sought after.
    "So many of our DREAMS at first seem impossible, then they seem improbable, and then, when we SUMMON THE WILL they soon become INEVITABLE "- Christopher Reeve

    BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
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