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2000-P SAC$1 Goodacre Presentation - MS69
llafoe
Posts: 7,220 ✭✭
The population for the 2000-P SAC$1 Goodacre Presentation in MS69 went from 14 to 31 overnight... that's an increase of 17 or an increase of 122%!!!!!
The price in the PCGS price guide hasn't changed and still remains at $5,000. What is a fair value for a coin that has a literal overnight increase of 122%? half - $2500? one-third - $1650? Is it even possible for a coin to more than double without ANY change in value?
The price in the PCGS price guide hasn't changed and still remains at $5,000. What is a fair value for a coin that has a literal overnight increase of 122%? half - $2500? one-third - $1650? Is it even possible for a coin to more than double without ANY change in value?
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what did the MS68 pop do - anything?
hypothetically, what if Goodacres' personal holding of her 2,500 coins only yielded 17 MS69 coins (as I recall, the pop 14 was tied to the 2,500 out of 5,000 that were released to the public at that time)
All of this analysis (and more) goes into my consideration of what the true price should be.
Do we know anything about those 17 new coins?
Wondercoin
If we saw a 122% increase in another date/mintmark/series, I expect the price would adjust accordingly... that's my question. Not to be confused by tangents.
PCGS alone has graded 2,639 of the 2,500 Goodacre's that have released.
Let's look at comparables - all MS69 Sacagawea: 2001-P (25) $3,500, 2002-P (20) $3,500, 2003-P (23) $3,350 and 2004-P (24) $2,700. The Goodacre now has 6 more MS69 (out of 2500?) than any of these comparable. If there are still 2,500 more in Goodacre's hands (the pop should double to 62), let's go with one of your tangents... what should the value be now? There are millions of the 2001-P through 2004-P and their population is still smaller (there have been 4,621; 2,801; 2,287 and 1,732 graded respectively). As you can see, these are comparable comparables.
Wondercoin
<< <i>I'm confused... we know that the pop has increased 122% overnight. What else do we need to know specifically about the 17 new coins?
If we saw a 122% increase in another date/mintmark/series, I expect the price would adjust accordingly... that's my question. Not to be confused by tangents. >>
The numbers need to be validated friend. Just because it reads 31 does not mean that 31 exist. It could very well be a data entry error.
As for the PCGS Price Guide, in January 2008, the populations for MS67 1977 Eisenhower Dollars (a $5,700 coin) jumped by 140% (5 coins to 12 coins) yet the prices were barely affected. Currently listed at $5,500. (Wondercoin knows about these coins
If the Sac numbers are correct, I doubt the prices will be affected by much. The same would be true if the pops for 55/55 Lincolns jumped by 500 in one day.
The name is LEE!
1. If the new 17 coins came about because someone "hit the jackpot" and made 17 MS69 coins from the original 2,500 coins available to the public for the past 10 years - in this case, I would personally expect prices to drop just as the OP suggests; or
2. If the new 17 coins came about because Goodacre's "personal stash" was finally seen by PCGS and they graded 17 coins as MS69's - in this case, I would personally be surprised if prices dropped much (if at all) ... AND a case could be made that prices might even RISE!
On a side note ... there will always be a question in Sac collectors minds whether the MS69's of "yesteryear" were better quality than the MS69's of today (or vice versa). Lee brings up those 1977 Ikes and at the time the pop went from 5 to 12, not only did a handpicked piece from the "new" 7 coin lot trade right in line with the Price Guide, but when the #1 set was marketing his set for sale around that same time, the asking price for the 1977 was barely affected as well as I recall (due to its nice quality I asume). Low end coins for the grade might be discounted of course (pops going up or otherwise).
Wondercoin
I missed the last two. How much did they sell for?
I knew it would happen.