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Red cents can turn brown!
saintguru
Posts: 7,724 ✭✭✭
I say silver is COOKED!
It's over. I think it could pull back to $23. Gold....not so much....perhaps $1275-1300.
If I'm wrong.....whatchagonnado?
But I'm disclosing...I am buying puts on SLV.
The end.
It's over. I think it could pull back to $23. Gold....not so much....perhaps $1275-1300.
If I'm wrong.....whatchagonnado?
But I'm disclosing...I am buying puts on SLV.
The end.
0
Comments
I'd cash-in if I had any left-over, common silver coins or bars.
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Traders and funds keep shorting and the price just reams them within hours! They are the buyers, taking losses day after day. Are there really any NET buyers of size? What could they be thinking at these levels? Hell, at $20Ag/1200Au maybe...but at 429/1400...it's too risky. A better hedge would be buying oil futires here...same thing, basically.
Seeing silver futures hit $29.34 intraday and then fall to 27.53 is a classic sign of a top. The longs are going to find NO buyers once this thing accelerates (if I'm right.).
<< <i>Silver is cooked only when the doctors want to get that rich deep blue toning in the peripherals.
That's the next stage as I've already seen premiums paid on toned silver rounds and bars
siliconvalleycoins.com
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>you may be right...but this still belongs on the precious metals forum.
Yet "The Collector Formerly Known as Saintguru" it's good to see you on here again... Hope you'll find another series to Guru soon!
<< <i>A real MAN would short 100 Dec Comex contracts.
A real man, huh? I was a commodity trader on the floor of the CME from 1979-1986. I saw "real men" soil their pants with 20 contacts. And I traded pork bellies...back then they traded so fast they made silver look like sand futures.
<< <i>Jay...you may be right...but this still belongs on the precious metals forum.
Well....it's been quite a while...but BITE ME!
I knew it would happen.
On inflation-adjusted basis, gold has generally traded between $300 and $600 (in 2010 dollars) an ounce for the past 200 years. Seems way overpriced historically.
You have to say, StG has never lacked the courage of his convictions!
Since gold was fixed in price until 1971 at $35/oz ($20/oz before 1933), I can't see how talking about any time period before that is relevant. Do you work for JP Morgan Commodities Trading department?
To the OP's point; he may be right in the short term.
<< <i>A lot of people said the same thing when it broke $20.........
Edited to add: Back when silver was languishing in the $6-8 range, we had one local real estate broker who used to buy all of the silver halves we got in. Spent a lot of money over the years, but stopped buying when silver hit $10 because that was "too high."
siliconvalleycoins.com
Commodity markets have traded the same for hundreds of years and right now you have a runaway bull move that is very much ahead of itself. Markets do not go parabolic without taking prisoners when the fuel runs out.
Ask Jay Gould's ghost about the great gold squeeze of 1869. He and Fisk had a LOCK.....until one firm decided enough was enough. For silver right now, IN MY OPINION, enough is enough. If I'm wrong...it's my limited loss.
Real men buy puts. That way you don't get wiped out. Been there....a long time ago.
THIRTY siver contracts was the number it took to lose my sphincter control to the whim of the market!
<< <i>Let me tell you about trading COMEX silver futures. I traded them when I was in my late 20's. I was "young, dumb and full of c*m" and had cojones the size of coconuts. I had little fear, I could knock down 10 shots of tequilla and take four 714's!
THIRTY siver contracts was the number it took to lose my sphincter control to the whim of the market!
Discussing the mighty 714's @ PCGS, my but that brings back (cloudy) memories.
714's...that brings back some memories (cant find puking emoticon)
<< <i>Now Jay you're all puffed up taking my tongue in cheek poke too literally. That's why I put the little smiley face after the comment. I'm all for those little wennie puts. Oh no, here I go again. I'll put two smiley's in now.
But you gave me the podium to describe what it was like to trade those hand grenades! I had to go on!
The rorer were the better ones for sure
BST Transactions: DonnyJf, MrOrganic, Justanothercoinaddict, Fivecents, Slq, Jdimmick,
Robb, Tee135, Ibzman350, Mercfan, Outhaul, Erickso1, Cugamongacoins, Indiananationals, Wayne Herndon
Negative BST Transactions:
MJ
I got several texts on the new silver margins requirements toda. Without lookinf I knew silver was/would be hit. Yep.
<The Chicago Mercantile Exchange increased the margin requirements for silver futures on Tuesday, a move that comes as both silver and gold have continued to hit new highs.
For people trading silver on margin -- or borrowing money to play in the silver market -- the CME (CME: 293.27 ,-2.37 ,-0.80%) will now requires a minimum of $6,500 per contract traded, up from its previous level of $5,000 per contract.
Silver is traded on the CME in 5,000 oz. lots. By lifting the margin requirements by $1,500 per lot, it makes it more difficult for people to speculate in the silver markets.
The CME’s trading requirements do not affect any other metal.
The price of silver and other precious metals have jumped in recent months as speculators bet against a falling dollar and concerns of economic uncertainty.
Because silver is considered a precious metal and considerably cheaper than gold, silver often trades in tandem with gold. And while gold futures have climbed by more than $500 a troy ounce since the beginning of the year, the price of silver has nearly doubled in the same time period as traders have sought a cheaper alternative to gold.>
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>(cant find puking emoticon) >>
I keep this one in notepad for just such an occasion:
Silver could certainly pull back to it's neckline which is down at the $23-$24 level. That would retest the breakout. But I think a much smaller drop will be more than enough to scare the heck out of all the newcomers and clear the table once again. How did your short on gold work out when you applied it around $1300? Did you get out at $1350 like you said or earlier...or hung in longer? That probably worked as well as the ZSL (short) silver position I briefly took in mid-October and happily jumped out with a 5% hit. Had I held on to ZSL for the ride, would have lost 55%. Puts on AGQ wouldn't have done as bad, but would still have left a nice mark. I'll leave the shorting to the professional traders until this bull leg runs out of steam in March-June next year.
Silver cooked for the very short term. But expect another all time high between $32-$35 before the year is out. Gold will head to $1450+ as well.
On inflation-adjusted basis, gold has generally traded between $300 and $600 (in 2010 dollars) an ounce for the past 200 years. Seems way overpriced historically.
First question I'd ask is what are you using for an "inflation" tool? Hopefully not the rigged CPI. And in any case inflation is a change in the money supply. Since the US money supply has effectively become a debt/credit based system, just comparing to M1-M2-M3 is leaving out the biggest fudge factor. Worse yet, you're trying to evaluate a commodity/monetary alternative which has no counter-party risk to a piece of fiat paper which is tied to nothing real (USDollar index tied to a group of other unbacked fiat currencies). That's like trying to compare apples to oranges. And you really don't have to go back 200 yrs since the general price levels of the US Economy were essentially unchanged from 1800-1906 and for very good reasons. Or you can start from 1933 as price levels from 1800-1933 were essentially unchanged after the depression wiped out the price inflation that the FED created from 1914-1928. But honestly, you can just start the analysis from 1971 since we've only been on pure fiat for 39 yrs. That's really the only time frame which is now comparable. Our current monetary history is only 39 yrs old...not 200+.
roadrunner
SLV daily chart
dieabolical, that was some big volume on sliver. wow.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
SLV weekly
roadrunner
<< <i>I say silver is COOKED!
It's over. I think it could pull back to $23. Gold....not so much....perhaps $1275-1300.
If I'm wrong.....whatchagonnado?
But I'm disclosing...I am buying puts on SLV.
The end.
Most commodity players lkearn early on to not fight the trend.
With silver you can make good money up or down independent of the trend but
if you're going to fight the trend you'd best keep your stops tight.
As for commodities and their analysis, I'm going to save my time going into the techniques and fundamentals I watch. Just know that I have been involved with trading them since '76 and had a seat on the CME for 7 years. That may not make me a compelling expert, but I'm certainly pretty well versed and educated on a dozen or so technical analysis', as well as years of hard work. That doesn't make me right, but it does differentiate me from the schmuck on the street whose neighbor gave him a tip.
FWIW, some of you will recall that what brought me back into the coin market in 2002 was an ultra long-term buy signal in gold of a weekly close above $318. I was bearish for over 20 years and it took three years for the base to form before the setup was complete. That's when I started buying Saints and it morphed into a totally different finale, one that I consider priceless compared to the gold investment that brought me in.
Like I said...I could be wrong...but I feel pretty good about this. For the record I am still a gold bull, but it's not going higher without a correction. I'm a lot less bullish that previously. Show me significant inflation and things will change. One day at a time.
roadrunner
Maybe that's already happening and I'm just not paying attention, but I haven't see the buy, Buy, BUY stuff on the news yet.
How much of a premium?
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CoinsAreFun Toned Silver Eagle Proof Album
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Gallery Mint Museum, Ron Landis& Joe Rust, The beginnings of the Golden Dollar
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More CoinsAreFun Pictorials NGC
I think $27 is cheap.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>MJ mentioned above the reason for today's 1:00 pm plunge. Margin requirements on silver were raised approx 30%. I'm sure that JPM & Co. were already well aware of the impending change and waiting patiently at 1:00 after selling off their pile of longs and adding shorts.... just before the air raid siren went off. The selling in silver cascaded over into many other commodities as well. Margine reqs were not changed for gold...at least not yet. A very well-coordinated "splunge" using a text book play from the 1970's "Sink the Hunts" playbook. I think corrections are healthy, but not when instituted like this. Did the CFTC raise the margin requirements on anything else such as cotton, sugar, coffee, soy, oats, rice, OJ, etc....all of which have blown away silver in recent months? That's ok...no answer required, since raising margin requirements on cotton isn't going to help support the $USD.
>>
Most of the silver in the world is made of paper but they go after the silver made
out of silver. Wait until tens of thousands of people who think they have silver
stored in a warehouse for which they are paying storage and dusting fees figure
out there's nothing there but an empty promise. The silver has all been sold sev-
eral times over to line the pockets of the bankers.
I keep warning people this situation is not going to be pretty as it unwinds. There
are going to be lots of angry people and some of them are politicians and foreign
countries. It may already be too late for even a concerted effort to stop it and the
only thing won would be to postpone the day of reckoning and make the situation
far far worse.
I wouldn't stand on the same track silver is on. Even when I know it's going down
or stopping, it's just not worth the risk.
Get out of paper and watch out.
I have seen many instances where a commodity was being "squeezed" and the CFTC imposed a "no new longs" in the front contract rule! They make the rules.
<< <i>The CFTYC can change margin requirements anytiime they want and have done so.
I have seen many instances where a commodity was being "squeezed" and the CFTC imposed a "no new longs" in the front contract rule! They make the rules. >>
They don't make silver.
They don't control foreign buying.
They can't stand in front of a juggernaut any more than we can.
I was merely elaborating on a post.
siliconvalleycoins.com
back to $20?
Back to $10?
<< <i>Oooooo, did you say premiums????
How much of a premium?