I have been taking a break from the computer and trading so I haven't been posting. Took a pretty big hit the end of last week trading silver. Silver is dangerous because the leverage is so much greater and we're getting some big $.50-$1+ swings every day and it killed me, so I'm getting out of silver for now. I might dabble when silver hits $25.00-$25.25, but I'm done with it for now.
I think it's clear that we've entered a consolidation period that may take another week or two... probably until past Thanksgiving. There may be some more short-term weakness in stocks and PMs. Some are calling for a big crash in stocks very soon. I'm going to lighten up on my PM stocks today.
The same people have been calling for the big crash ever since the summer of 2009. They've all been dead wrong while keeping the majority of their subscribers and readers out of the right stocks. I'm sticking with Cliff Droke and Nadeem Walayat who have consistently called the twists and turns in the market. I like to follow NW because he also used to be a derivatives trader and successfully traded both the 1987 and 2008 crashes. Don't recall the exact stats but the SM has been hugely successful following mid-year elections for the vast majority of the past several decades. Why would this be an exception with the QE path that cannot be avoided? As long as there are the continued warning bells of a crash, the market should have a smooth path to new cycle highs by early next year.
Tend to agree that this softness could hold through Thanksgiving week. But on the flip side cycles are tending to show an early peak in PM's in 1st or 2nd week of December. I can't see making it to a new peak on only 1-1/2 weeks of positive trading. Something in that analysis isn't right....and it's probably the cycle timing which often times leads to projected tops just being short term highs or even being bottoms. Hence the cycle guys can always claim they got the cycle timing right...but only missed the direction as to a top or bottom...lol.
Thought that the GLD gap had been filled but it's still open on the hourly chart ($1345-$1350). Silver has a gap at $24.75. I suspect that those will be re-tested this week along with filling the GDX and GDXJ gaps that sit at about the same proportional points. The GSR would have to move to 54-55 to do this. There are also gaps formed from the drop at $1400 gold and $27.50 silver that could be filled first which would require a GSR of 51. Worst case is those gaps get refilled on the resumption of the next wave to $1450/$30 but they will get filled eventually.
In looking at the gold mining seniors they probably need a bit more down on this leg to make a more symmetrical 5 legs down. EGO would complete that by dropping another 3-5% to touch its up trend line. IAG in danger of falling through it's year long triangle. Nice looking H&S forming in the $USD that would project to .79. The resistance point of 78.5-78.7 is getting strongly challenged.
PC, sorry to hear about your silver futures results. I briefly tried that game with ZSL back in mid-October and got stung. Had I held that position it would have been a burial. I learned the same lesson not to fight a maniacal bull market. The trend is our friend. Sometimes the best thing is just to back away from the market with some cash and sit on our hands.
<< <i>The same people have been calling for the big crash ever since the summer of 2009. They've all been dead wrong while keeping the majority of their subscribers and readers out of the right stocks. I'm sticking with Cliff Droke and Nadeem Walayat who have consistently called the twists and turns in the market. I like to follow NW because he also used to be a derivatives trader and successfully traded both the 1987 and 2008 crashes. Don't recall the exact stats but the SM has been hugely successful following mid-year elections for the vast majority of the past several decades. Why would this be an exception with the QE path that cannot be avoided? As long as there are the continued warning bells of a crash, the market should have a smooth path to new cycle highs by early next year. >>
I need to be clearer, when I say crash, the crash I envision is a very temporary 'flash'-type crash, a short-lived panic, the kind that will be completely over in days.
<< <i>Sorry to hear about your silver futures results. I briefly tried that game with ZSL back in mid-October and got stung. Had I held that position it would have been a burial. I learned the same lesson not to fight a bull or maniacal market. The trend is our friend. Sometimes the best thing is just to back away from the market with some cash and sit on our hands. >>
One of the most valuable lessons I've learned is that when you don't know which way the market is headed - or the market isn't headed in any particular direction, it's best to wait it out on the sidelines, otherwise you'll get chopped up in the swings unless you sweat them out.
One of the most valuable lessons I've learned is that when you don't know which way the market is headed - or the market isn't headed in any particular direction, it's best to wait it out on the sidelines, otherwise you'll get chopped up in the swings unless you sweat them out
My Rule #3. When in doubt, stay out.
Nibbled on AGQ at 110 via sale of this weeks put. This weeks GLD 132 put looks interesting as well.
GDXJ, GDX, GLD gaps are now filled. Silver remains a holdout. A number of the individual miners still have gaps to cover such as AUY at 10.90, so more downside probably for miners like that. Fallout started a few days early this week to get a jump on next week's holiday week. Could easily see GDX and GDXJ fall another 10% to hit their bottom BB though there is good support for GDX about 5% above the BB.
If GSR heads back towards resistance at 58 that would be $1300/$22.40....a slightly better option would be $1320/$22.75.
I think the bottom is in, although gold may not be ready to move up from here this very minute. We may need to touch the lows again before we're ready at ~1330. The cycles show a bottom is due Wed or Thursday, so we could see more weakness tomorrow (a re-touch of 1330), but this should be it. By the end of the week, gold should be off to the races again, although I'm still open to the possibility that we may be delayed until after Thanksgiving.
I think silver will echo gold's movements, so $25 is pretty much THE low for this move. If we dip down again to that level tonight, GET IN! And not just silver... palladium, copper, and SP500 should also treat you well (some more than others).
Still lots of opportunities between now and Friday through Tuesday to take some more whacks at metals. It does look like a bounce is due (Gold shows 5 waves down over the past 5 days) in PM's and the miners after today's route. Nothing says this correction can't be deeper than what has been seen so far. If this is a correction of the move from Feb then 25% may not be enough. It this correction is only covering the upleg since July then 35% could be adequate.
Anyone have any insight to investing in GSS right here and now ? Thanks
Was tempted to buy some on its first dip and now the second dip but my concerns are that it is at least wounded for the rest of this qtr following a terrible earnings report. Lost $1.8 MILL this quarter with the best prices ever for gold. Their cash cost per oz went to $825 which stinks. Production was off by 20% vs. 3rd qtr 2009. Stated causes were lower ore grades, recovery, and heavy rainfalls. That's not to say that GSS couldn't come flying back. But there are just too many miners this quarter with sad stories while others are doing fine. While their price is tempting, there is reason for it. Probably the most heavily hit gold miner this past month. From high flyer to low rider. After watching JAG, GRS, and MFN go through similar trials this year, I'm inclined to just watch.
<< <i>Still lots of opportunities between now and Friday through Tuesday to take some more whacks at metals. It does look like a bounce is due (Gold shows 5 waves down over the past 5 days) in PM's and the miners after today's route. Nothing says this correction can't be deeper than what has been seen so far. If this is a correction of the move from Feb then 25% may not be enough. It this correction is only covering the upleg since July then 35% could be adequate. >>
We shouldn't need to retrace the move from February since we had a nice retracement of that entire move in July.
A 38.2% retracement from the low at 1155.6 in gold has almost been completed, we need to see 1321.7-1323.7, and it looks like today could be the day to pull that off. Support is at - surprise, surprise, 1323.8. Resistance at 1344.1, 1359.1.
So if I pur on my prediction hat, I'd say there's a good chance of hitting 1323.8 today, which would be an optimal buy point.
Interestingly, silver HAS completed it's 38.2% retracement of the move up from $17.735. The only question is if it needs to come down to ~24.75 to retrace the move all the way back from 17.325.
Futures are headed higher tonight, it could be a fakeout. Silver over 26.50 and gold over 1377 will indicate that THE BOTTOM is in and metals are ready to run higher. I'm still holding out for a big swoon allowing me to buy silver at $25 for the last time, but it's probably wishful thinking.
Last night's bounce brought silver right to the 38% FIB retrace on this recent drop as well as to touch the first leg down on November 7th. This would be an excellent point to such in fresh longs thinking the train is leaving the station again. At least if I were a bankster that's how I would be laying it out. It seems illogical that the correction is over with SM options expiration (Friday) and PM's expiration (next week) still looming. Note that both GDX and GDXJ just rebounded to close their down gaps from earlier this week. That pretty much accounts for all recent gaps though some individual miners could still push up a bit more to close theirs. The miners just hate to leave gaps and tend to close them in the majority of cases. What's not bullish is that this latest bounce up is on much lower volumes. Note that SPY is reaching up to try and close its higher gap. This all seems to me to be a 4th leg bounce before another wave down in silver/gold. Until silver leaves the $26.50 range behind on a close I'm not ready to buy into a continuation of the bull. Cocoa sure went on a tear in the past 2 days but it also hasn't played in all the reindeer games of the past few months either.
Those gains were easily achieved in overseas trading. How will they hold up on the Crimex? The dollar has made only one strong leg up since turning around. Doesn't seem that it will give up so easily without a second run towards 80.0. Things set up well for the GM IPO so a PPT stock market lift required along with keeping paper metals at bay.
You can buy even more candybars now. Nice trade!!! MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Gold and silver both made it back exactly to their Nov. 8th breakout points and were pushed back ($1360-$1362 / $27). Gold bouncing off it's resistance line formed over the previous several days. Shaping up to be an interesting battle.
Edit: 7:00 PM both gold and silver surging up $1363 /$27.40+ with GSR hitting 49 again. Looking bullish again. Edit for Friday am: as it turned out that brief bit of bullishness was the peak for yesterday. More chopping needed as expiration looms.
Gold is looking like it is ready to break free, a print of 1364.5 should be a definitive buy trigger point. I think it's practically in the bag as silver has already said it's ready to proceed higher again, and I can't imagine silver moving without gold, or vice versa. Copper's probably a good speculative play here as well, but there are no technical indicators... just an assumption that it will move along with SI.
One of my newsletters analyzed the final 3 months of previous parabolic moves, like the one we are in with gold, and there were moves of 40-60% in almost every case. So while it's not a rule, it's a strong possibility that we could and will see $2000 gold by Feb.
<< <i>Not sure what you mean by this. Shouldnt there be the same indicators as for gold/silver/corn/IBM, ect? >>
No, the charts are not the same. You can get a buy trigger or buy pattern in one metal but not another. I am assuming (gambling) that if you get a signal in one, it will ultimately lead to a buy signal in another, which assumes that a general relationship holds up.
<< <i>Or are you just saying that, right now, the indicators are pointing toward higher prices for gold/silver and not for copper? >>
Not that complicated, sorry if I was unclear. In your example, if MACD for gold is saying 'buy' but for silver it's not (yet), you could assume that silver's MACD will soon be a 'buy' as well.
A lot of movement today, but no progress for gold or silver. I think the lack of energy today implies another weak of nothing - we'll probably have to wait until after Thanksgiving. The next week could still have a lot of movement, and I think there's a good chance of a decent dip down to 1330's for gold, maybe we'll see 1320's. Wish I could say the same for silver. It's already up $2.50 off of it's bottom near $25, so it's hard for me to say if we'll see much weakness there either - perhaps low $26's - but it's conceivable silver could keep climbing next week, doing its own thing.
Still it will be easy to detect a breakout - $1360 is the level to beat, I'm still looking for $1364.5+. So my plan next week is probably to sell any time gold hits $1360 and buy any dips from there... then to get back in after a print of $1364.5. I'll probably use gold as my gauge to sell and buy SI and PA.
Support for Monday is at 1330.6, 1342.1, 1352.7, and resistance at 1364, 1374.4.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I think the dollar will bounce just fine here after consolidating for a few days. The metals while trying to hang on seem to be somewhat listless on low volume. Both silver and gold seem to have bounced away from the bottom uptrend lines (negating the couple of days where silver went crazy). It's going to be hard to move against options expiration and 3 days of TBond auctions, not to mention end of the month maneuvering.
One might expect gold, silver, and the miners to head back to Thursday's morning open and fill any remaining gaps. $1330 / $25.50.
Edit at 3PM: nope, both metals turned around nicely. Note that silver has formed a near perfectly symmetric rising wedge today.
Katz feels that if at some point the FED actually tightens due to increasing pressure from gold bugs like Ron Paul, then shorting the stock market will become a better play tha long on PM's.
I guess its just me... but I noticed gold to silver ratio @ 49.12... that's pretty low during this 10 year run, if my memory serves me. Either we have entered into a new phase... or we are do for a correction. It makes me a little nervous.
Normally I wouldnt think about a strong correction till around 2nd week of January.
<< <i>Katz feels that if at some point the FED actually tightens due to increasing pressure from gold bugs like Ron Paul, then shorting the stock market will become a better play tha long on PM's. >>
A nice thought, but in reality it's just not possible (any time soon) in this political environment. Just not going to happen. I do agree that if they ever do start tightening rates shorting the stock market would be a good play, and PMs might get dicey.
<< <i>Normally I wouldnt think about a strong correction till around 2nd week of January. >>
Timing models suggest a correction coming Jan 3... will know more as we get closer. Until then, up, up, and away is the forecast.
The 1364.5 mark that I had pointed out was breached and we closed above it. If we hold 1360 for Tuesday then I'd say it's back-up-the-truck time, get ready for the rally to resume. I expect a dip to 1360 tonight and a surge to 1373, not necessarily in that order.
Silver continues to show great strength, and it appears to me that there are forces driving silver that we don't clearly understand... I'm guessing related to the unraveling of silver manipulation... Near term target is still $30 (actually $30.30), with a long term target approaching $50 (to accompany $1900-2000 gold).
Support for gold at 1353.5, 1360.4, resistance at 1373. Support for silver at 27.318, 27.607, and resistance at 28.138.
GSR hit into the upper 48's on the peak a week or so ago. The fact that it's lingering in this 48-52 range after such a rapid drop and not moving up dramatically should bring concerns to the silver shorters...especially saintly gurus.
Ed, a long gold/short silver trade may work. It's a slow moving trade with a decent risk reward. JMO. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Ed, a long gold/short silver trade may work. It's a slow moving trade with a decent risk reward. JMO. MJ >>
On what ratio? 49 to 1? >>
45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold.
<< <i>Ed, a long gold/short silver trade may work. It's a slow moving trade with a decent risk reward. JMO. MJ >>
On what ratio? 49 to 1? >>
45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I haven't really looked that this trade. Not sure I'd be interested. But I've traded pairs of stocks...at inflection points on the charts with some success. I got away from it though a couple of years ago. I was in and out too often and paying commish on two sides. If I had had larger positions I could have made a living at it, I think. But the pool of cash--several Hundred thousand $$-- to swing the numbers was prohibitive to me.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold. >>
Stop orders can protect against serious losses.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold. >>
I actually don't see it as a bold trade played at 1:1......One could say that economic and political uncertainty in the world plays into every trade. Usually the ones on the wrong side of the trade say that. The ones on the right side of the trade say it's the charts.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold. >>
I actually don't see it as a bold trade played at 1:1......One could say that economic and political uncertainty in the world plays into every trade. Usually the ones on the wrong side of the trade say that. The ones on the right side of the trade say it's the charts.
MJ >>
If I were to put a position on, I'd buy the gold and short the silver based on this chart.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
Today's move by gold looks REALLY bullish, especially despite the move in USD futures. Gold is ready to soar, NOW is the time to sell the farm and go all-in gold for a $550+ ride for the next 3 months, an average of $46/week.
Stocks and silver didn't really go anywhere, which were both probably held down by the rising dollar. This won't last much longer though, the dollar isn't headed anywhere. Anyone wanting to short the USD, 80.235 should be a top.
The only question is how will gold behave over the holiday with a limited trading schedule. I'm not expecting too much movement because of this, so we'll have to see.
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold. >>
I actually don't see it as a bold trade played at 1:1......One could say that economic and political uncertainty in the world plays into every trade. Usually the ones on the wrong side of the trade say that. The ones on the right side of the trade say it's the charts.
MJ >>
If I were to put a position on, I'd buy the gold and short the silver based on this chart. >>
And you would have been up 2% today
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>If I were to put a position on, I'd buy the gold and short the silver based on this chart. >>
With both headed up in a parabolic move/bubble, why wouldn't you just go long on both? >>
You could but you would be leaning heavily in one direction. A trade like this could actually work if they both went down as well. If both went down in tandem my guess is that silver would go down harder. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Gold is ready to soar, NOW is the time to sell the farm and go all-in gold for a $550+ ride for the next 3 months, an average of $46/week. >>
WOW... That is one heck of a call...
Whats your call on silver during the same time frame?????
btw: ***************** We just had an earthquake here.... 4.7 ************************
MJ,
Good move today. I do like the trade. But IF the GSR falls below 44... I would be in the camp that we have entered a different phase. I'm optimistic but far from convinced... which is why I brought up the topic. The ten year chart speaks for itself (risk vs reward).
PC, that is indeed a gutsy prediction. Your track record and analysis are quite impressive, so you are probably going to be right. I love to read your analysis, and that of the many other knowledgeable posters here, but for me it always comes back to the simplest solution. Are they really going to let everything deflate(housing, stocks, other assets) and be forced stop the spending? Do you really think the politicians and the people want their real estate values and 401Ks to be cut in half or worse? Do you think the populace would stand for significant cuts in welfare checks, pension payouts, medicaid benefits, food stamps, unemployment etc? No Way. Their heads explode at the thought of a 2% cut or even not getting a 3% increase each and every year into perpetuity. There is no choice but to continue with inflation and growth, which WILL find its way into increasing metals prices.
<< <i>PC, that is indeed a gutsy prediction. Your track record and analysis are quite impressive, so you are probably going to be right. I love to read your analysis, and that of the many other knowledgeable posters here, but for me it always comes back to the simplest solution. Are they really going to let everything deflate(housing, stocks, other assets) and be forced stop the spending? Do you really think the politicians and the people want their real estate values and 401Ks to be cut in half or worse? Do you think the populace would stand for significant cuts in welfare checks, pension payouts, medicaid benefits, food stamps, unemployment etc? No Way. Their heads explode at the thought of a 2% cut or even not getting a 3% increase each and every year into perpetuity. There is no choice but to continue with inflation and growth, which WILL find its way into increasing metals prices. >>
Glad you enjoy my posts.
I disagree that housing, stocks, and other assets are going to deflate. Short term, housing and other items may deflate more as the excess inventory is wound down (and some locations have a lot further to go), but here in AZ prices appear to be approaching a bottom as buying a house is still cheaper than renting and investors can make good cash-flow on a home from day 1. Once inventory levels reach reasonable levels again (and it may be a few years yet), housing will have to appreciate to catch up to the price of building, which is and will keep going up as all commodities are. Stocks are likely to continue to increase - not due to earnings or anything fundamental - but due to dollar depreciation - just look at how Zimbabwe's stock market performed during their hyperinflation. Stocks went up, not down. Many Dow and SP500 companies also make most of their money overseas now as well.
You have highlighted the real problem which is why things will only continue to get worse. Politicians will opt for printing/inflation (the hidden tax) over overtly increasing taxes whenever possible. It is sad that they don't see that lowering taxes and easing regulations would grow the tax base and increase tax collections more than a tax increase would, but that's another topic. Our government is NOT prepared to make the spending cuts necessary to right the economy, and if/when they do start making cuts there will be riots and protests just like in Europe at the moment.
Some on this board claim that the government will eventually do the right thing and raise rates and cut the money supply, but they seem to live in an economical and political dreamland that I do not reside in. Such moves would be political suicide and our politicians don't have the stones to do it, even if they can be convinced that it is the right thing to do. Such moves would definitely kill the stock market.
Comments
I think it's clear that we've entered a consolidation period that may take another week or two... probably until past Thanksgiving. There may be some more short-term weakness in stocks and PMs. Some are calling for a big crash in stocks very soon. I'm going to lighten up on my PM stocks today.
Tend to agree that this softness could hold through Thanksgiving week. But on the flip side cycles are tending to show an early peak in PM's in 1st or 2nd week of December. I can't see making it to a new peak on only 1-1/2 weeks of positive trading. Something in that analysis isn't right....and it's probably the cycle timing which often times leads to projected tops just being short term highs or even being bottoms. Hence the cycle guys can always claim they got the cycle timing right...but only missed the direction as to a top or bottom...lol.
Thought that the GLD gap had been filled but it's still open on the hourly chart ($1345-$1350). Silver has a gap at $24.75. I suspect that those will be re-tested this week along with filling the GDX and GDXJ gaps that sit at about the same proportional points. The GSR would have to move to 54-55 to do this. There are also gaps formed from the drop at $1400 gold and $27.50 silver that could be filled first which would require a GSR of 51. Worst case is those gaps get refilled on the resumption of the next wave to $1450/$30 but they will get filled eventually.
In looking at the gold mining seniors they probably need a bit more down on this leg to make a more symmetrical 5 legs down. EGO would complete that by dropping another 3-5% to touch its up trend line. IAG in danger of falling through it's year long triangle. Nice looking H&S forming in the $USD that would project to .79. The resistance point of 78.5-78.7 is getting strongly challenged.
PC, sorry to hear about your silver futures results. I briefly tried that game with ZSL back in mid-October and got stung. Had I held that position it would have been a burial. I learned the same lesson not to fight a maniacal bull market. The trend is our friend. Sometimes the best thing is just to back away from the market with some cash and sit on our hands.
roadrunner
<< <i>The same people have been calling for the big crash ever since the summer of 2009. They've all been dead wrong while keeping the majority of their subscribers and readers out of the right stocks. I'm sticking with Cliff Droke and Nadeem Walayat who have consistently called the twists and turns in the market. I like to follow NW because he also used to be a derivatives trader and successfully traded both the 1987 and 2008 crashes. Don't recall the exact stats but the SM has been hugely successful following mid-year elections for the vast majority of the past several decades. Why would this be an exception with the QE path that cannot be avoided? As long as there are the continued warning bells of a crash, the market should have a smooth path to new cycle highs by early next year. >>
I need to be clearer, when I say crash, the crash I envision is a very temporary 'flash'-type crash, a short-lived panic, the kind that will be completely over in days.
<< <i>Sorry to hear about your silver futures results. I briefly tried that game with ZSL back in mid-October and got stung. Had I held that position it would have been a burial. I learned the same lesson not to fight a bull or maniacal market. The trend is our friend. Sometimes the best thing is just to back away from the market with some cash and sit on our hands. >>
One of the most valuable lessons I've learned is that when you don't know which way the market is headed - or the market isn't headed in any particular direction, it's best to wait it out on the sidelines, otherwise you'll get chopped up in the swings unless you sweat them out.
My Rule #3. When in doubt, stay out.
Nibbled on AGQ at 110 via sale of this weeks put. This weeks GLD 132 put looks interesting as well.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If GSR heads back towards resistance at 58 that would be $1300/$22.40....a slightly better option would be $1320/$22.75.
roadrunner
I think silver will echo gold's movements, so $25 is pretty much THE low for this move. If we dip down again to that level tonight, GET IN! And not just silver... palladium, copper, and SP500 should also treat you well (some more than others).
everyone believes something is a sure way to financial glory.....IT NO LONGER IS!
Camelot
Anyone have any insight to investing in GSS right here and now ? Thanks
Was tempted to buy some on its first dip and now the second dip but my concerns are that it is at least wounded for the rest of this qtr following a terrible earnings report. Lost $1.8 MILL this quarter with the best prices ever for gold. Their cash cost per oz went to $825 which stinks. Production was off by 20% vs. 3rd qtr 2009. Stated causes were lower ore grades, recovery, and heavy rainfalls. That's not to say that GSS couldn't come flying back. But there are just too many miners this quarter with sad stories while others are doing fine. While their price is tempting, there is reason for it. Probably the most heavily hit gold miner this past month. From high flyer to low rider. After watching JAG, GRS, and MFN go through similar trials this year, I'm inclined to just watch.
GSS 3rd qtr info
roadrunner
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Still lots of opportunities between now and Friday through Tuesday to take some more whacks at metals. It does look like a bounce is due (Gold shows 5 waves down over the past 5 days) in PM's and the miners after today's route. Nothing says this correction can't be deeper than what has been seen so far. If this is a correction of the move from Feb then 25% may not be enough. It this correction is only covering the upleg since July then 35% could be adequate. >>
We shouldn't need to retrace the move from February since we had a nice retracement of that entire move in July.
A 38.2% retracement from the low at 1155.6 in gold has almost been completed, we need to see 1321.7-1323.7, and it looks like today could be the day to pull that off. Support is at - surprise, surprise, 1323.8. Resistance at 1344.1, 1359.1.
So if I pur on my prediction hat, I'd say there's a good chance of hitting 1323.8 today, which would be an optimal buy point.
Interestingly, silver HAS completed it's 38.2% retracement of the move up from $17.735. The only question is if it needs to come down to ~24.75 to retrace the move all the way back from 17.325.
Those gains were easily achieved in overseas trading. How will they hold up on the Crimex? The dollar has made only one strong leg up since turning around. Doesn't seem that it will give up so easily without a second run towards 80.0. Things set up well for the GM IPO so a PPT stock market lift required along with keeping paper metals at bay.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Closed AGQ puts. Made 600%. >>
Holy...need help hauling the $$ around?
<< <i>
<< <i>Closed AGQ puts. Made 600%. >>
Holy...need help hauling the $$ around? >>
Nah, 6x on $1 is only $6.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Closed AGQ puts. Made 600%. >>
Holy...need help hauling the $$ around? >>
Nah, 6x on $1 is only $6. >>
You can buy even more candybars now. Nice trade!!! MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
This thread is worthless without pictures! I wanna see a wheelbarrow full of c-notes!
I knew it would happen.
Edit: 7:00 PM both gold and silver surging up $1363 /$27.40+ with GSR hitting 49 again. Looking bullish again.
Edit for Friday am: as it turned out that brief bit of bullishness was the peak for yesterday. More chopping needed as expiration looms.
roadrunner
One of my newsletters analyzed the final 3 months of previous parabolic moves, like the one we are in with gold, and there were moves of 40-60% in almost every case. So while it's not a rule, it's a strong possibility that we could and will see $2000 gold by Feb.
Time to get mega-long again!
but there are no technical indicators
Not sure what you mean by this. Shouldnt there be the same indicators as for gold/silver/corn/IBM, ect?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Not sure what you mean by this. Shouldnt there be the same indicators as for gold/silver/corn/IBM, ect? >>
No, the charts are not the same. You can get a buy trigger or buy pattern in one metal but not another. I am assuming (gambling) that if you get a signal in one, it will ultimately lead to a buy signal in another, which assumes that a general relationship holds up.
If you use macd for instance to determine a trade on silver, cant you still use macd to determine a buy signal for copper, or IBM?
Or are you just saying that, right now, the indicators are pointing toward higher prices for gold/silver and not for copper?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Or are you just saying that, right now, the indicators are pointing toward higher prices for gold/silver and not for copper? >>
Not that complicated, sorry if I was unclear. In your example, if MACD for gold is saying 'buy' but for silver it's not (yet), you could assume that silver's MACD will soon be a 'buy' as well.
Still it will be easy to detect a breakout - $1360 is the level to beat, I'm still looking for $1364.5+. So my plan next week is probably to sell any time gold hits $1360 and buy any dips from there... then to get back in after a print of $1364.5. I'll probably use gold as my gauge to sell and buy SI and PA.
Support for Monday is at 1330.6, 1342.1, 1352.7, and resistance at 1364, 1374.4.
$78.30 key
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
One might expect gold, silver, and the miners to head back to Thursday's morning open and fill any remaining gaps. $1330 / $25.50.
Edit at 3PM: nope, both metals turned around nicely. Note that silver has formed a near perfectly symmetric rising wedge today.
silver chart
Katz on the markets
Katz feels that if at some point the FED actually tightens due to increasing pressure from gold bugs like Ron Paul, then shorting the stock market will become a better play tha long on PM's.
roadrunner
Normally I wouldnt think about a strong correction till around 2nd week of January.
<< <i>Katz feels that if at some point the FED actually tightens due to increasing pressure from gold bugs like Ron Paul, then shorting the stock market will become a better play tha long on PM's. >>
A nice thought, but in reality it's just not possible (any time soon) in this political environment. Just not going to happen. I do agree that if they ever do start tightening rates shorting the stock market would be a good play, and PMs might get dicey.
<< <i>Normally I wouldnt think about a strong correction till around 2nd week of January. >>
Timing models suggest a correction coming Jan 3... will know more as we get closer. Until then, up, up, and away is the forecast.
The 1364.5 mark that I had pointed out was breached and we closed above it. If we hold 1360 for Tuesday then I'd say it's back-up-the-truck time, get ready for the rally to resume. I expect a dip to 1360 tonight and a surge to 1373, not necessarily in that order.
Silver continues to show great strength, and it appears to me that there are forces driving silver that we don't clearly understand... I'm guessing related to the unraveling of silver manipulation... Near term target is still $30 (actually $30.30), with a long term target approaching $50 (to accompany $1900-2000 gold).
Support for gold at 1353.5, 1360.4, resistance at 1373.
Support for silver at 27.318, 27.607, and resistance at 28.138.
roadrunner
Monday the agency had executed search warrants Goldman Sachs Group Inc shares fell 3.4 percent after the Wall Street Journal said the Justice Department is examining possible leaks by bank employees about mergers.
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>The dollar better bounce here or it will give up all of it's recent modest gains on a ride back down to .76.......................MJ
$78.30 key >>
Well it bounced, and it's saved to play another day.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Ed, a long gold/short silver trade may work. It's a slow moving trade with a decent risk reward. JMO. MJ >>
On what ratio? 49 to 1?
<< <i>
<< <i>Ed, a long gold/short silver trade may work. It's a slow moving trade with a decent risk reward. JMO. MJ >>
On what ratio? 49 to 1? >>
45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Ed, a long gold/short silver trade may work. It's a slow moving trade with a decent risk reward. JMO. MJ >>
On what ratio? 49 to 1? >>
45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I haven't really looked that this trade. Not sure I'd be interested. But I've traded pairs of stocks...at inflection points on the charts with some success. I got away from it though a couple of years ago. I was in and out too often and paying commish on two sides. If I had had larger positions I could have made a living at it, I think. But the pool of cash--several Hundred thousand $$-- to swing the numbers was prohibitive to me.
<< <i>
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold. >>
Stop orders can protect against serious losses.
<< <i>
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold. >>
I actually don't see it as a bold trade played at 1:1......One could say that economic and political uncertainty in the world plays into every trade. Usually the ones on the wrong side of the trade say that. The ones on the right side of the trade say it's the charts.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold. >>
I actually don't see it as a bold trade played at 1:1......One could say that economic and political uncertainty in the world plays into every trade. Usually the ones on the wrong side of the trade say that. The ones on the right side of the trade say it's the charts.
MJ >>
If I were to put a position on, I'd buy the gold and short the silver based on this chart.
Stocks and silver didn't really go anywhere, which were both probably held down by the rising dollar. This won't last much longer though, the dollar isn't headed anywhere. Anyone wanting to short the USD, 80.235 should be a top.
The only question is how will gold behave over the holiday with a limited trading schedule. I'm not expecting too much movement because of this, so we'll have to see.
The first of many?
Spain's Treasury Auction Fails
Edited to add:
Note - contract rolls to Feb gold which has about a $1-2 difference.
support for gold is at 1360, 1371.4, and resistance is at 1387.3
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>45 to 49 for a longer term trade might work fine. You can also customize this trade buy the amount of gold/silver you would be long /short on. It obviously doesn't have to be 1:1. I was in this exact trade for almost three years being long gold and short silver @ 2:1. I like pairs trades. MJ >>
I would caution that this trade is extra risky this time around. While history would call for a bounce and maintaining that trading range, the economy is fundamentally changing right now, where it was fairly steady/stable for the past couple decades. I'm not saying it's not a good trade, I'm just saying that counting on a trend to continue with all of this economic and political uncertainty in the world is pretty bold. >>
I actually don't see it as a bold trade played at 1:1......One could say that economic and political uncertainty in the world plays into every trade. Usually the ones on the wrong side of the trade say that. The ones on the right side of the trade say it's the charts.
MJ >>
If I were to put a position on, I'd buy the gold and short the silver based on this chart. >>
And you would have been up 2% today
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>If I were to put a position on, I'd buy the gold and short the silver based on this chart. >>
With both headed up in a parabolic move/bubble, why wouldn't you just go long on both?
<< <i>
<< <i>If I were to put a position on, I'd buy the gold and short the silver based on this chart. >>
With both headed up in a parabolic move/bubble, why wouldn't you just go long on both? >>
You could but you would be leaning heavily in one direction. A trade like this could actually work if they both went down as well. If both went down in tandem my guess is that silver would go down harder. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Gold is ready to soar, NOW is the time to sell the farm and go all-in gold for a $550+ ride for the next 3 months, an average of $46/week. >>
WOW... That is one heck of a call...
Whats your call on silver during the same time frame?????
btw: ***************** We just had an earthquake here.... 4.7 ************************
MJ,
Good move today. I do like the trade. But IF the GSR falls below 44... I would be in the camp that we have entered a different phase. I'm optimistic but far from convinced... which is why I brought up the topic. The ten year chart speaks for itself (risk vs reward).
<< <i>PC, that is indeed a gutsy prediction. Your track record and analysis are quite impressive, so you are probably going to be right. I love to read your analysis, and that of the many other knowledgeable posters here, but for me it always comes back to the simplest solution. Are they really going to let everything deflate(housing, stocks, other assets) and be forced stop the spending? Do you really think the politicians and the people want their real estate values and 401Ks to be cut in half or worse? Do you think the populace would stand for significant cuts in welfare checks, pension payouts, medicaid benefits, food stamps, unemployment etc? No Way. Their heads explode at the thought of a 2% cut or even not getting a 3% increase each and every year into perpetuity. There is no choice but to continue with inflation and growth, which WILL find its way into increasing metals prices. >>
Glad you enjoy my posts.
I disagree that housing, stocks, and other assets are going to deflate. Short term, housing and other items may deflate more as the excess inventory is wound down (and some locations have a lot further to go), but here in AZ prices appear to be approaching a bottom as buying a house is still cheaper than renting and investors can make good cash-flow on a home from day 1. Once inventory levels reach reasonable levels again (and it may be a few years yet), housing will have to appreciate to catch up to the price of building, which is and will keep going up as all commodities are. Stocks are likely to continue to increase - not due to earnings or anything fundamental - but due to dollar depreciation - just look at how Zimbabwe's stock market performed during their hyperinflation. Stocks went up, not down. Many Dow and SP500 companies also make most of their money overseas now as well.
You have highlighted the real problem which is why things will only continue to get worse. Politicians will opt for printing/inflation (the hidden tax) over overtly increasing taxes whenever possible. It is sad that they don't see that lowering taxes and easing regulations would grow the tax base and increase tax collections more than a tax increase would, but that's another topic. Our government is NOT prepared to make the spending cuts necessary to right the economy, and if/when they do start making cuts there will be riots and protests just like in Europe at the moment.
Some on this board claim that the government will eventually do the right thing and raise rates and cut the money supply, but they seem to live in an economical and political dreamland that I do not reside in. Such moves would be political suicide and our politicians don't have the stones to do it, even if they can be convinced that it is the right thing to do. Such moves would definitely kill the stock market.
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<< <i>[And you would have been up 2% today
MJ >>
How savvy of me, huh?