I have not messed with cards for about a year, what happened?
rexvos
Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭✭✭
Okay I got back into collecting after about a year break last week. What is going on? I am trying to work on my FB Hof Registry set and I am having trouble finding anything in what I hoped to be a buyer's market. Nothing for sale on eBay for a decent price of the cards I am looking for the most like Jim Brown, Roger Staubach, Bart Starr, or even the early to mid 70s guys in high grade at what would be considered market price. I try here and there is no action on the BST for buyers or sellers. I have made 3 deals, 2 sells and 1 buy on this board in a week. Typically that would be done in about an hour or less. I can understand lack of buying with the economy, but no selling? What is going on?
Looking for FB HOF Rookies
0
Comments
Jeff
See lines below.---- Sonny
However, in the current market, there's far too much risk to offer higher end quality without a safety net (reserve or high BIN). I have quite a few cards in the Registry that I would consider moving, but given the market, it's not worth the hassles of offering them out for prices that I feel that they are worth and receiving the comments and low ball offers from those interested in making a quick flip.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
I have my prices set at the high end of what I think stuff can bring but
am willing to negotiate.. auctions are a great place to find stuff going cheaper than it should be
that is why smart sellers won't do them.. including myself.
<< <i>The next Nolan Ryan came and went. >>
you are right on that one. I did not like the 2nd one due to centering. I did not bid on the first one do to an offer I had on a Jim Brown.
At least with vintage football cards, there is no room to make it worth buying raw, submitting, hoping to get mostly 8's(on commons) that net you about 50 cents profit after all the fees, shipping, and that's not including all the crap you have to put up with on ebay now.
And with modern football cards, it's the same except you have to get back 10's because 9's are worthless.
It's simple, all the lowballers have to pay a bit more to stimulate more action, or some unknown new demand has to step in.
<< <i>At least with vintage football cards, there is no room to make it worth buying raw, submitting, hoping to get mostly 8's(on commons) that net you about 50 cents profit after all the fees, shipping, and that's not including all the crap you have to put up with on ebay now. >>
Depends upon what you mean by "vintage" and what grade level you're talking about. There's still plenty of opportunity on pre-1970's material in NM/MT and better.
D's: 50P,49S,45D+S,43D,41S,40D,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 241,435,610,654 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
<< <i>It would be nice to see all of the ridiculously high bin's on ebay priced at face value. Who wants to pay $800 FOR a $500 card? >>
You are a dreamer, huh.
nobody.. but the problem is.. nobody wants to pay $500
for a $500 card either..
so you price it at $800.. the customer negotiates it down to the # you
were willing to take anyway.. but they feel like they made a good deal
it is all a game of perception
<< <i>Who wants to pay $800 FOR a $500 card? >>
Or you can auction the $500 for 99 cents, no reserve and watch it sell for $250
<< <i>Who wants to pay $800 FOR a $500 card?
nobody.. but the problem is.. nobody wants to pay $500
for a $500 card either..
>>
I think if nobody wants to pay $500 for a $500 card then the $500 card isn't worth $500.
<< <i>Okay I got back into collecting after about a year break last week. What is going on? I am trying to work on my FB Hof Registry set and I am having trouble finding anything in what I hoped to be a buyer's market. Nothing for sale on eBay for a decent price of the cards I am looking for the most like Jim Brown, Roger Staubach, Bart Starr, or even the early to mid 70s guys in high grade at what would be considered market price. I try here and there is no action on the BST for buyers or sellers. I have made 3 deals, 2 sells and 1 buy on this board in a week. Typically that would be done in about an hour or less. I can understand lack of buying with the economy, but no selling? What is going on? >>
People are selling reprints which are not authorized....
----------------------
Working on:
Football
1973 Topps PSA 8+ (99.81%)
1976 Topps PSA 9+ (36.36%)
1977 Topps PSA 9+ (100%)
Baseball
1938 Goudey (56.25%)
1951 Topps Redbacks PSA 8 (100%)
1952 Bowman PSA 7+ (63.10%)
1953 Topps PSA 5+ (91.24%)
1973 Topps PSA 8+ (70.76%)
1985 Fleer PSA 10 (54.85%)
The sellers that know what they are doing can command a premium at auction right now because there simply is no supply of high end auctions. IMO
That being said, I have no idea what the market will bear or not bear for low end stuff and modern stuff because I don't buy or sell that stuff for the most part.
<< <i>Wrestling Cards have become the new Mantle card, and one dude in Florida is buying fake boobs for his lady and Porsches with all that crazy money. There's a wave going on right now my friend...ride that wave all the way into the nearest Porsche dealership. >>
I think the next wave is going to involve professional bowling cards. I have been closely monitoring them and some of them have started to sell for 3 to 4 times what they were merely a month ago. I mean now these cards which wouldn't sell for even $1 30 days ago are demanding crazy amounts like $4 to $5 apiece. It seems like demand is skyrocketing, I am noticing the same large group of people buying them. By large I mean 3 or 4 of my buddies but we are just trying to corner the next big thing. I know that some of these sets were printed in some guys basement and he says he only printed a few 100 sets and they no one originally bought them so do you understand how limited and how valuable these will be? So before I know it I will be buying my wife fake boobies and I can also roll around in a used sports car.
The economy is factor #1. Between unemployment, higher cost of living, fear of the unknown, many of your casual collectors have stopped. Your more dedicated collectors have slowed due to the fear.
Strasburg gave a kick start to the modern side but in doing so stunted the growth of the vintage market. Why buy a HOF rookie from the 50's or 60's that may go up 20% in the next few years, when you can crack a lottery ticket of bowman, hit a 1/1 Strasburg and sell it for five figures? In the same vicious twist of fate, Strasburg getting injured and being out for 18 months brought a lot of speculators back down to earth as he is now damaged goods. Hence, why speculate on a could be who may not be now.
Ebay was a lifesaver for collectors and now has become the death sentence. As many have said, sell the card for half what it should sell for or get lucky and price it ridiculously high in the hope someone who is desperate for the card bites. With so many disenamoured by Ebay, your diverse market just isn't there.
<< <i>If a $500 card sells for $250 then it's not a $500 card anymore. Some of you obviously don't get the concept of basic economics. If the market is down in any commodity then the price will come down to meet the decreasing demand. If the demand goes up then the price for that card will go up because the demand supports a higher price. All of the ridiculous BIN's are people that think they can still get 3 year ago prices in the market today. Then there are a ton of sellers that have no idea how to "sell" their product. Just putting a few pictures and a short description isn't good enough to educate buyers on high end vintage. Buyers want to know exactly what they are getting before they pull the trigger on a high dollar card or set.
The sellers that know what they are doing can command a premium at auction right now because there simply is no supply of high end auctions. IMO
That being said, I have no idea what the market will bear or not bear for low end stuff and modern stuff because I don't buy or sell that stuff for the most part. >>
I think its basically this, a majority of the people buying and selling high end vintage do it with discretionary money and don't need to sell. Therefore they have more of a mind set of "I don't need the money so I won't lose money be selling selling cheap at auction" mentality.
I don't think supply side economics applies 100% to cards due to the personal or irrational behavoir in someone's collecting or hobby personalities. There is no real rational reason for someone to spend over established prior price point for any card in circulation but factors of fandom, collecting zeal, need to finish a set overpower common sense for a collector.
I see alot of modern RC market becoming like the high end vintage market where sellers hold onto the key cards and auction the riff raff.
It should be a buyers market, and it is for the low end or easier to find cards, but for quality material I think it will take alot more to make those holding these cards to offer them up cheap.
I know one thing I just bought a beautiful PSA 8.5 1961 Clemente and a 1959 PSA 8 Ernie Banks for the total price I would have paid for just the Clemente in 2000.
Am I missing anything here?
A $500 card is only a $500 card when it sells for that much, that being said, ebay only has a small fraction of what sales of cards are going for, so while that $500 may sell on ebay for $250, it IS selling everywhere else for $500 and the majority of people that have/own/sell higher dollar cards know this. They only are risking 30 cents putting up the card, but arent going to take less than what it would sell for in other venues. Too many people think that ebay is the be all/end all of the card world.
Secondly, most people are coming to the realization that for every 1 PSA-8 quality card available from vintage material, there are dozens, if not hundreds of lesser grade items. People with high grade vintage stuff arent going to come off of something that IS difficult to find, unlike more modern stuff that is NOT difficult to find. For example, a $500 card of Tim Lincecum may be rare, but can go down, very few older cards go down in value.
Finally, the most important matter is the fact that many, I wouldnt say most, but its possible, people that sell vintage material are also collectors. An example there is, I have a 1970 Topps Nolan Ryan in PSA 7. I dont know what its been selling for, but SMR is around $175. Honestly, I would rather KEEP the card than sell it for any less. It doesnt mean I want to gouge people on price, it just means that at $174, I would rather keep it.
People may be asking for prices from a few years ago, but that doesnt mean the card wont sell for that or even more when the economy rebounds. Its like the people who didnt want to sell gold for $600 an ounce 3 years ago, were they wrong? Ebays problem is that there are too many people looking for "something for nothing" and with ebay fees and less buyers, people are not going to chance selling a card that WILL sell on other venues for $500 for any less money
-My strategy for cards in the last few years is to pick off items of reasonable quality at reasonable prices. Like a box of 94/95 upper deck sp basketball for $22. Or 93/94 topps finest for $40. From the bbce. The buy it nows on ebay are double or triple!
SP box as high as $60. There's a 93/94 topps finest box for $150! Ebay now is sort of a last resort. If you're out of stock locally, or from other internet sellers, you're paying a fortune. I don't even look at cards much anymore. Its better to follow certain sellers who start things low at 99 cents than mess with bin's or offers.
It seems like with the economy, ebay is now a giant game of...now you see it, now you don't. Like somebody putting a bunch of playing cards on a table. You can see them now, or they go on the shelf for 4 months at 2 or 3x the price. I think the economy will ultimately get worst before it gets better. The likelihood of a much harder crash in 2-4 years is quite high IMO. Then things are really going to dry up. Maybe use the time to buy other collectibles.
<< <i>< If a $500 card sells for $250 then it's not a $500 card anymore. Some of you obviously don't get the concept of basic economics. If the market is down in any commodity then the price will come down to meet the decreasing demand. If the demand goes up then the price for that card will go up because the demand supports a higher price. All of the ridiculous BIN's are people that think they can still get 3 year ago prices in the market today. Then there are a ton of sellers that have no idea how to "sell" their product. Just putting a few pictures and a short description isn't good enough to educate buyers on high end vintage. Buyers want to know exactly what they are getting before they pull the trigger on a high dollar card or set. >>
The problem with the above is that cards are not a commodity. Yes, if a 500.00 card sells for 250.00 that specific card is now a 250.00 card. It does NOT mean that every other 500.00 similar
card is now a 250.00 card. Many variables come into play as all cards are not the same (even in the same grade). To be clear I am talking about a specific card from one specific set.
I don't really think you can make such a blanket statement, of course this is just my opinion.
edited to add: I know, anything of value is a commodity, In a more specific market sense, however, a commodity is an item which is roughly the same market value across the board, with no difference based on quality. Watches, for examples, are not market commodities, because a well-crafted, artisan watch might cost a hundred times as much as a cheap, lower-quality watch. Copper, on the other hand, is always roughly the same price at a given time, because copper is always copper.
The above taken from the net for clarity. The 'no difference based on quality' is what IMO sets cards apart from being a true commodity. How often have we seen
cards that are 8's look worse than a 7? Or two 8's and one is much better than the other?
Steve
we were happy, in fact excited to be offered 50 or 60% by dealers with deep pockets.....supply was plentiful and the rate of turnover was shockingly fast.
today, some are proclaiming the market is doomed.
why is anyone complaining about 50% when it's beats nothing?
In this example I got $250 so it clearly was worth $250 to me. I suppose if someone were to come up with a "value" they could average all the sales but to ME the card would be a $250 card since that's what I got. Maybe I could list it as a BIN for 3 months and one day get $500 but if I want money now maybe I only get $250 and thus it's a $250 card to me. We could go round and round in circles all day on this. I don't think there is a right or wrong way of looking at it.
<< <i>If I decide to sell my "$500 card" today and can only get $250 it's a "$250 card" to me >>
Agree wholeheartedly, however, what some of us are saying is that 1 sale does not make a market.
Steve
Very true. One sale does not make a market and should be used as an average with other sales to determine price guide value but I am simple minded and only care about what goes into my pocket. I am a lawyer, for example, and was being recruited by a large law firm last year. They asked me what my average billable hours were per year. I said, "I don't know what my billable hours were as I do not pay close attention but how about I tell you what my actual monetary collections were!?" That's just how I roll. Bottom line and simple.
<< <i>YOUR card was a $250 card. Does that mean that particular card or grade is worth only $250? No. How about when the VERY NEXT DAY, someone hits a BUY IT NOW for the same identical card and grade for $500?? Does that make the card a $250 card or a $500 card? The only thing it tells me is that the card is STILL a $500 card, and the person who hit the BUY IT NOW, just happened to miss the auction.
In this example I got $250 so it clearly was worth $250 to me. I suppose if someone were to come up with a "value" they could average all the sales but to ME the card would be a $250 card since that's what I got. Maybe I could list it as a BIN for 3 months and one day get $500 but if I want money now maybe I only get $250 and thus it's a $250 card to me. We could go round and round in circles all day on this. I don't think there is a right or wrong way of looking at it. >>
Agreed. If its really a $500 card, then why did it take so long(3 months) to sell after someone listed it as a BIN? Someone could put a reprint on craigslist for $500 and 3 months later a sucker agrees to buy it. Does that then mean that craigslist card is worth $500 because someone paid $500 for it?
As a seller, you have to do some things to be better than the next guy that's selling the same stuff as you.
<< <i>it is purely economics, how hard is that to understand for some of you? If the demand for anything is too low to meet the price then the price must come down to meet the demand. You don't just keep the price at the same level and expect to sell things. That being said, apparently most of the sellers don't need to sell, therefore they keep their prices at levels realized last year or the year before. That is fine, but don't whine and complain about not getting last years prices for stuff that doesn't have the demand at those prices that it once did. It's like LarryAllen said, houses that sold for a million a few years ago are now lucky to bring half or a third of that. So, in order to sell those houses, the price had to come down or else they would just sit. It's the same with sportscards only those don't carry huge mortgages so someone can afford to sit on them longer. It's predominately a buyers market in all things right now.
As a seller, you have to do some things to be better than the next guy that's selling the same stuff as you. >>
Dealers aren't taking it, look at Levi at 707 sports...he has the cards and you are going to pay close to his price like it or leave it. You can't compare real estate values to cards..... dealers will wait out the storm....there are only so many good cards for sets and if you want to complete your set ...you'll pay one way or another. chaz
<< <i>
<< <i>it is purely economics, how hard is that to understand for some of you? If the demand for anything is too low to meet the price then the price must come down to meet the demand. You don't just keep the price at the same level and expect to sell things. That being said, apparently most of the sellers don't need to sell, therefore they keep their prices at levels realized last year or the year before. That is fine, but don't whine and complain about not getting last years prices for stuff that doesn't have the demand at those prices that it once did. It's like LarryAllen said, houses that sold for a million a few years ago are now lucky to bring half or a third of that. So, in order to sell those houses, the price had to come down or else they would just sit. It's the same with sportscards only those don't carry huge mortgages so someone can afford to sit on them longer. It's predominately a buyers market in all things right now.
As a seller, you have to do some things to be better than the next guy that's selling the same stuff as you. >>
Dealers aren't taking it, look at Levi at 707 sports...he has the cards and you are going to pay close to his price like it or leave it. You can't compare real estate values to cards..... dealers will wait out the storm....there are only so many good cards for sets and if you want to complete your set ...you'll pay one way or another. chaz >>
lol, please re-read my post. I'm not disagreeing on that, in fact supporting that idea. But, when the buyers don't buy at those prices then they will either drop or just keep them forever and I've seen some cards and sets that have been in BIN inventory for over a year.
<< <i>
<< <i>it is purely economics, how hard is that to understand for some of you? If the demand for anything is too low to meet the price then the price must come down to meet the demand. You don't just keep the price at the same level and expect to sell things. That being said, apparently most of the sellers don't need to sell, therefore they keep their prices at levels realized last year or the year before. That is fine, but don't whine and complain about not getting last years prices for stuff that doesn't have the demand at those prices that it once did. It's like LarryAllen said, houses that sold for a million a few years ago are now lucky to bring half or a third of that. So, in order to sell those houses, the price had to come down or else they would just sit. It's the same with sportscards only those don't carry huge mortgages so someone can afford to sit on them longer. It's predominately a buyers market in all things right now.
As a seller, you have to do some things to be better than the next guy that's selling the same stuff as you. >>
Dealers aren't taking it, look at Levi at 707 sports...he has the cards and you are going to pay close to his price like it or leave it. You can't compare real estate values to cards..... dealers will wait out the storm....there are only so many good cards for sets and if you want to complete your set ...you'll pay one way or another. chaz >>
you have to be really desparate to pay 707 Sportscards price.
<< <i>you have to be really desparate to pay 707 Sportscards price. >>
Amen to that! He had a 1953 Satchell Paige one time. I offered him $10 above VCP average. He countered with $5 off his price (I forgot what it was, but it was HIGH!!). My first and last dealings with him.....
<< <i>
<< <i>you have to be really desparate to pay 707 Sportscards price. >>
Amen to that! He had a 1953 Satchell Paige one time. I offered him $10 above VCP average. He countered with $5 off his price (I forgot what it was, but it was HIGH!!). My first and last dealings with him..... >>
lol, sounds like he slapped you back in the face.
I keep saying to myself that one day I'm going to buy a '51 and/or '52 Mantle, and when that day comes 707 will be on my list of dealers to check out.
and if you think otherwise you are being naive
so keep running auctions out there.. and I will keep scooping up your mistakes..
if you think buying for $250 and sitting it in your store for 3-6 mos at .10 per month
to sell for 450-500 is foolish? count me in
cards have a small market.. high grade vintage gets even smaller.. the buyers are there..
but they might not be browsing ebay religously
That sounds a little naive.
Though the supply and demand with certain collectibles may be different than other things in life it most certainly still applies. Maybe you recall what happened in the late 80's when demand was HIGH and subsequently in the 90's when demand was LOW. Then demand kept going lower and supply stayed high for a while. Oh gosh that was econ 101!
I think you and others think a low Ebay sale is somehow not true supply/demand. It is. It's just that the demand is very low on a day to day basis so cards sell cheaper than some think they are "worth." Like many things in life you can buy at these "low" prices, deal with costs of holding including market risk, and then maybe sell for a profit. Like a lot of things an expert can make a profit. However, the low demand on Ebay drives prices overall down and/or amount of time it takes to sell at it's "real value" longer. Supply and demand still applies. Albeit slightly different than parishable commodities but not so different. There is nothing special about cards.
but the auction draws a crowd of people not looking to buy a 69 camaro
it might bring far less then what it could and should sell for.
it doesn't mean the car is worth 30k because that buyer could turn around and sell it for $50k
if advertised correctly over time and shown to the people who are in that market
Steve
That said, there are exceptions. Reasonable BIN's still sell well. Some auctions will still do well, especially if there are multiple listings. I sold the raw 61's I had on the BST page at auction for about what I was asking for them. But by and large, it's a wholesale market. I assume that when I run auctions, and hope to be pleasantly surprised.
As a result, I just changed my buying habits. I pay less for stuff.
There are other outlets where you can get higher prices, it's just more work, you have to be willing to wait, etc. Don't underestimate the possibility of a card buy/sell/auction exchange taking hold at some point that replaces Ebay. I'd sure like to see it happen.
But the other unspoken part is, I think we're seeing the back end of the economic storm, and like a tornado that develops at the end of a thunderstorm, we're in a bit of a wipeout right now. People are feeling the fatigue of what we've been through, and there is less discretionary money for collectibles. Thus, demand is down. And there is huge uncertainty as well - no one has any idea what their tax liability is going to be next year, does that affect spending? You better believe it, and just wait til the holiday season.
It's not just cards, folks. Check out the decline in the antique car market if you want some laughs.
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
No hablo ingles.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>it is purely economics, how hard is that to understand for some of you? If the demand for anything is too low to meet the price then the price must come down to meet the demand. You don't just keep the price at the same level and expect to sell things. That being said, apparently most of the sellers don't need to sell, therefore they keep their prices at levels realized last year or the year before. That is fine, but don't whine and complain about not getting last years prices for stuff that doesn't have the demand at those prices that it once did. It's like LarryAllen said, houses that sold for a million a few years ago are now lucky to bring half or a third of that. So, in order to sell those houses, the price had to come down or else they would just sit. It's the same with sportscards only those don't carry huge mortgages so someone can afford to sit on them longer. It's predominately a buyers market in all things right now.
As a seller, you have to do some things to be better than the next guy that's selling the same stuff as you. >>
Dealers aren't taking it, look at Levi at 707 sports...he has the cards and you are going to pay close to his price like it or leave it. You can't compare real estate values to cards..... dealers will wait out the storm....there are only so many good cards for sets and if you want to complete your set ...you'll pay one way or another. chaz >>
you have to be really desparate to pay 707 Sportscards price. >>
People do. chaz
<< <i>I don't think anyone here is on the same page.
Steve >>
LOL.