The economics of vintage pack/box busting
pbyco
Posts: 492
I always wondered why someone would bust a vintage pack/box when the chances of getting something good is so slim. For example, paying $15,000 (WAG) for a 79/80 OPC Hockey to get, what, 3 Gretzky rookies on average that are probably OC and not more than a PSA 8. The rest of the cards are not worth it to make up the difference. Same goes for others that I've seen. Sure you could get lucky and get that PSA 10, but seriously what are the odds. Seems like a complete waste of money...
"If we are facing in the right direction, all we need to do is keep on walking." - David Brent
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I opened a '65 cello because of a dumb move on my part. It was in a GAI holder and I wanted to cross it over to PSA. The grade was low (4 if I remember correctly) because it had the original sticker price on the cello. I VERY CAREFULLY tried to remove the price tag (the pack would have graded at least an 8) but the cello came along with the tag when it was removed, causing a hole in the cello.
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
For example, I recently shelled out a good bit of money for a 1989 Score box because I wanted to pull a Eric Metcalf RC.
I know that I could go on Ebay and buy about 100 Metcalf RC singles for what I paid for the box, but the thrill of pulling that RC out of a pack myself was too hard to pass up.
Always easier and cheaper to buy singles.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
1. For the pure fun of it /to travel back in time to younger/better days.
2. Gambling habit: hoping for lighting to strike and pull that perfect 79 OPC PSA 10 Gretzky ect ect.
3. Bragging rights: Hey I bought a box of 86 fleer basketball for 10,000 and then I sat down and ripped it open and got 3 Jordan rookies.
4. Adrenaline junkie that has to have his fix/ adrenaline rush.
5. a group box break so you are not alone when getting your fix or your high off the smell of old gum, old cardboard and old wax.
6. Stupidity:you only need 3 cards to finish the set but refuse to buy/trade for the cards you need, so you keep buying packs.
7. it's my money and I'll do what I want with it.
8. this is the way I collect cards & build my collection because I don't believe in buying single cards that someone else has already touched (extreme OCD).
9. A fool and his money are soon parted. (see reasons 1 thru 8) for excuses for reason number 9
10. All of the above.
pick as many as you want as there are no wrong answers on this quiz.
plese feel free to add reasons to the top 10.
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
<< <i>I always wondered why someone would bust a vintage pack/box when the chances of getting something good is so slim. For example, paying $15,000 (WAG) for a 79/80 OPC Hockey to get, what, 3 Gretzky rookies on average that are probably OC and not more than a PSA 8. The rest of the cards are not worth it to make up the difference. Same goes for others that I've seen. Sure you could get lucky and get that PSA 10, but seriously what are the odds. Seems like a complete waste of money... >>
Well, it's certainly better than the craps table at a casino, that's for sure, but I agree with Doug...ya do it for fun, get an adrenaline rush thrill and just sorta expect to lose...but even when the pack is a money loser, and possibly a big money loser, ya at least still have some cards to show for it...what the yell, it's only money. LOL
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<< <i>I always wondered why someone would bust a vintage pack/box when the chances of getting something good is so slim. For example, paying $15,000 (WAG) for a 79/80 OPC Hockey to get, what, 3 Gretzky rookies on average that are probably OC and not more than a PSA 8. The rest of the cards are not worth it to make up the difference. Same goes for others that I've seen. Sure you could get lucky and get that PSA 10, but seriously what are the odds. Seems like a complete waste of money... >>
Well, it's certainly better than the craps table at a casino, that's for sure, but I agree with Doug...ya do it for fun, get an adrenaline rush thrill and just sorta expect to lose...but even when the pack is a money loser, and possibly a big money loser, ya at least still have some cards to show for it...what the yell, it's only money. LOL >>
The craps table puts the player at a 1.41% disadvantage. Play the pass line for $5 a come-out and you're down, on average, about $4 an hour. Mix in two come bets per hand and you're up to a whopping $11 an hour in expected losses. If you can find me a vintage pack-busting opportunity where I can expect to lose a mere $4-$11 an hour I'm all ears.
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<< <i>
<< <i>I always wondered why someone would bust a vintage pack/box when the chances of getting something good is so slim. For example, paying $15,000 (WAG) for a 79/80 OPC Hockey to get, what, 3 Gretzky rookies on average that are probably OC and not more than a PSA 8. The rest of the cards are not worth it to make up the difference. Same goes for others that I've seen. Sure you could get lucky and get that PSA 10, but seriously what are the odds. Seems like a complete waste of money... >>
Well, it's certainly better than the craps table at a casino, that's for sure, but I agree with Doug...ya do it for fun, get an adrenaline rush thrill and just sorta expect to lose...but even when the pack is a money loser, and possibly a big money loser, ya at least still have some cards to show for it...what the yell, it's only money. LOL >>
The craps table puts the player at a 1.41% disadvantage. Play the pass line for $5 a come-out and you're down, on average, about $4 an hour. Mix in two come bets per hand and you're up to a whopping $11 an hour in expected losses. If you can find me a vintage pack-busting opportunity where I can expect to lose a mere $4-$11 an hour I'm all ears. >>
Perhaps buying a truckload of cheap 80's and 90's baseball cards...the $4-$11 an hour loss rate could probably be calculated on how fast ya rip. LOL
<< <i>Top 10 reasons to bust a pack or a box:
1. For the pure fun of it /to travel back in time to younger/better days.
2. Gambling habit: hoping for lighting to strike and pull that perfect 79 OPC PSA 10 Gretzky ect ect.
3. Bragging rights: Hey I bought a box of 86 fleer basketball for 10,000 and then I sat down and ripped it open and got 3 Jordan rookies.
4. Adrenaline junkie that has to have his fix/ adrenaline rush.
5. a group box break so you are not alone when getting your fix or your high off the smell of old gum, old cardboard and old wax.
6. Stupidity:you only need 3 cards to finish the set but refuse to buy/trade for the cards you need, so you keep buying packs.
7. it's my money and I'll do what I want with it.
8. this is the way I collect cards & build my collection because I don't believe in buying single cards that someone else has already touched (extreme OCD).
9. A fool and his money are soon parted. (see reasons 1 thru 8) for excuses for reason number 9
10. All of the above.
pick as many as you want as there are no wrong answers on this quiz.
plese feel free to add reasons to the top 10. >>
And I'm putting myself down for reason number 10...Ding Ding Ding !!!!!!!
YeeHah
Neil