<< <i>I just picked 2008 out of the air. It was a time when taxidrivers, Iranians and supermodels were choosing to own Euros over dollars. It was before the stock market collapsed. I have no agenda, these are the facts. Here's another--The dollar is within a couple pennies of where it was in 1992!!!!! >>
The point is, in the past decade the dollar index has been higher and it's been lower than what it is today, so to even try to use that for a comparison is meaningless. And as far as the dollar being within pennies of 1992, again, are you talking about that worthless dollar index again? Everything costs a heck of a lot more today than it did 18 years ago.
<< <i>Point was that in light of Trillions of dollars being printed, the US dollar still has still maintained its value against Euros and Candos. Amazing, isnt it? The Aussie dollar is up about 12%--US Treasuries have outperformed that. The Swiss Franc is up more, but hey, they're neutral. >>
I don't agree at all. I remember going to Europe just after they started the Euro and I remember getting more Euros per USD. Now you get a fraction of a Euro per dollar. Same with Australia, I remember taking about 25% off of the AUD prices when I was there in the mid 00's, now they are almost equal! And what if you had invested in Australian treasuries 5 years ago? You'd be up 25% PLUS the interest rate they were paying!
I can think of only a few things that are cheaper today than a few years ago. Real estate (which doesn't count because it's still stabilizing after coming out of a bubble), some technology (which doesn't count because it naturally gets cheaper as it matures). I do know that I'm paying more at all of my favorite fast food places, and I just purchased a new car and those prices have definitely gone up, insurance and taxes have gone up, travel has gone up, all forms of entertainment have gone up, and on and on. At my real job I end up spending or directing the spend of probably close to a million dollar worth of equipment per year - electrical, mechanical, COTS & custom and I can tell you that NONE of the prices have gone down, and in most cases we've had at least two price hikes in the last 2-3 years. So I'm not sure where you live, but I might need to move there soon because everything here in Arizona just keeps going up. >>
Just after the Euro came out it traded down to about 80c in 2001. So yes, you did get more Euros. Im not debating that. I simply stated that since the "worthless dollar bandbagon" really started to roll in 2008 that the dollar has appeciated against some of its major competitors. Im not talking about gold or silver or other so-called REEs.
The arguement isnt whether or not everything costs more, its whether the dollar is worthless. Prices are only increasing because wages increase. If you hold the prices of everything since 1992 static with wages then you would see everything costs about the same. McDonalds costs more because of minimum wage increases. Arent they selling hamburgers for 69c? I remember paying that in the 80s. I bought a new Jeep last November for $8000 off the sticker price. No trade-in. I paid less than the sticker price of a new Jeep in 2000!!! Do you remember the price of airline tickets in the 1980's? Prices today are a fraction of those fares and you have many more flights to choose from. Yes, hotels cost more--due to increased wages. My car insurance is the same as it was in 2002---pays to be a good driver. A trip to the movie theater is more today, but do you remember the price of a rental from Blockbuster? You can get pay-per-view cheaper today.
I will gripe about my real estate taxes though, they're up 30% in the last 5 years. Why? Increase wages and benefits!!!
I think everyone wants a free ride by having increased wages and stable prices. It doesnt work that way. Never has, never will.
Roadrunner, im not debating whether gold or silver should go higher. We produce more of the stuff every year and currently supply is not meeting demand. So yes, we are farming for gold and silver. I hope gold goes to 5000 and silver to 200, but even then the only people who will care are are those who own it and those who wish they did.
PC, nice move in dumping your contracts.
GDX is running the possibility of a close under the 50dma. It has now lost all it gains since late August and is below the "breakout" area represented by the highs in Mar 08, Dec 09, Apr and June. $XAU is still hanging on to its "breakout" represented by the line connecting the tops in 2008 and 2009. Still above the 50dma.
To further a thought I didnt want to get buried....
In 1980 the median wage was $20,300. In 2009, 49,800. ----2.45x In 1980 the median hose was $70,000. $205,000 today.-----2.95x
In 1980 a 30yr mortgage was 15%. So the payment on a $100,000 loan would have $1264. Today a 30yr mortgage is 4.5%. So that same $1264 payment would get you a $250,000. So you can get a mortgage today that is 2.5x larger than in 1980 for the same dollars. Interesting how thats the same multiple as wages increased. Hmmm. Also interesting how the median house has increased at roughly the same rate. Hmmm.
So the same dollar in 1980, could get you the same house in 2010. Hmmmm!!!!!
Newmont like IAG is flirting with the 8 month uptrend line. EGO sort of blew threw it today. We look to be about at the end of gold completing 5 waves down for gold which should help lift the miners. Newmont may pull back towards that uptrend line. It has the 50 dma not too far below it for support. In the case of EGO it's already had 11 down days in this current leg and either 27 or 46 depending on where you start. Today's long red candle felt like a final capitulation to close that gap down at 16.5.
I thought GDX would fall another 1/2 pt and close its gap at 53.5. But it held around 54 which are also the peaks seen in May and June. Some of the seniors have closed below the 50 dma line a number of times during the Feb-Oct run up. So I am not too worried about one or two of them closing under it by a small amount. I know if I strictly heed every TA warning that gold gives off I would be shook off very early in every up trend. Looking for gold to complete its pattern (if not already done) this evening. The juniors have faired much better and few of them are anywhere near violating their uptrend lines. GLD did close it's gap today from the 2nd day in October by briefly dropping to $128.7. That would appear to accomplish most of the goals of this $1388-$131X down leg. A bounce back to the $1350-$1360 would then close the gaps left on the initial drop.
Another comment I have about GDX or the HUI, is that it's not as "pure" an indicator as it should be. This is quite apparent when you look at 3 year charts of the major gold mutual funds that don't trade minute by minute: GOLDX, TGLDX, USAGX, USERX, FSAGX, OPGSX, BGEIX, etc. Those charts much more closely replicate gold's performance and don't quite have the issue that GDX has with falling below 2008 and 2009 highs. Those funds aren't as easily painted as GDX (no shorts?) and they are much more diverse in their holdings. GDX is somewhat tainted in that the 3 biggest (ie slow moving) miners make up 39% of the index. And the top 5 miners (ABX, NEM, GG, AU, KGC) make up 50%. You won't find that with any of the above gold mutual funds. On top of that toss in silver miners that encompass 20% of GDX. GDX is not the ideal vehicle for tracking overall miner performance imo. It is a decent vehicle for tracking the top 5 gold miners as a group. There are also some loser gold/PM mutual funds that haven't even kept up with miners or bullion the past few years. I don't have an explanation other than they stink....lol. Some haven't even yet broken out. I guess there are dogs in everything.
I like to use the simplicity of the CDNX to give the overall trend of the miners. While these may not be seniors or intermediates it is less subject to whipsawing and chart painting. The current uptrend is still relatively short compared to the first upleg that lasted from Dec '08 to Dec '09. CDNX
...I'm not debating whether gold or silver should go higher. We produce more of the stuff every year and currently supply is not meeting demand. So yes, we are farming for gold and silver. I hope gold goes to 5000 and silver to 200, but even then the only people who will care are are those who own it and those who wish they did.
I wasn't debating either. I just thought that PM's are a slightly different breed of commodity where production can't just be turned up on demand. It's not quite like planting more crops or digging for coal. The reality of it is that world gold ounces mined have dropped since the 2001 peak. If they are calling for an increase in production, they aren't doing a very good job of it. It now takes 3X the total ore mined to get the same net gold production of just around 10 years ago. Hence mining costs are increasing while finished ounces mined is at best stagnant. We're farming for gold, just not being overly successfull at it. It's like a fisherman having to have his nets in the water 3X as long as before to get the same catch.
In 1980 the median hose was $70,000. $205,000 today.-----2.95x........what is that, gold braided hose?
Just q quick note for tonight, I'll post more tomorrow.
Gold looks destined to hit the 38.2% retracement of the entire move up from 1155.6 which is 1299.9. I'm loading up the truck at that point, although I see possibility for an overshoot as low as 1291... For friday, support at 1268.5, 1299.9, 1312.9, and resistance at 1331.3, 1344.3.
I'll be shutting down the long position on a breach of 1290...
I've been nibbling away at some gold miners. Looks like this 7 day wave may have completed at $1314 this morning. May be more downside to come but one would think a bounce of some sort from $1315 would take at least a couple of days. Headwinds increase in strength with futures expiration on Wednesday. Bond auctions Tuesday-Thursday and the G20 meeting this weekend are all wild cards. The FED/Treasury is also dumping in billions every other day via POMO. Too many factors to figure out how gold will respond next week though it seems a decent bet it will pick up steam through November just based on seasonality.
Adam Hamilton's latest article on how gold's dollar rally over the past 2 months was just a mirage...all based on dollar devaluation while the Euro/Gold stayed constant. He notes that no major gold move has ended w/o gold rallying hard in all major currencies. Considering Euro gold has been consolidating under E$1000 for months, there's no real world rally in gold at this time. But there will be as soon as Euro/gold is done consolidating under E$1000. Another view that's definitely worth the read.
Gold is really showing a lack of strength and buying here... really no bounce at all from this second move lower. So I think gold is headed lower, to 1300, but I am concerned that this buy point is just too-well anticipated by the market. I do see where it's possible that we've put in the low at 1315.6, but the target was actually a few dollars lower, so I don't think we're done here. I'm still seeing Oct 26 or 27 as an important date, so I don't think there's anything to be excited about on Monday. I'm still on the sidelines, waiting in cash. I also have a downside target at 1291.x, but I'll be loading up at 1300. I think any move down is going to be very quick and temporary.
General stocks (SP500) are looking good and keep grinding higher. I see no reason for this to stop. I think we've seen most of the downside in gold stocks, and they will be helped by a rising stock market. Since we've seen most of the downside in gold - we're only really talking $30 additional down - I think this is a decent buying point, with the best opportunities probably coming intraday Mon or Tues.
If you skip down to the October updates this analyst is looking for the Dow and gold to trend down through November and into December before turning back up again towards the 12,000+ range. His calls on the SM, PM's, and dollar have been quite good the past 2-1/2 yrs. He has been a bull on stocks since March of 2009....and still is as inflation of currencies floats many boats. I once read his accounting of successfully shorting the October 1987 crash almost perfectly...an interesting read. And he had the documents to prove he made those trades.
Toby O'Connor is figuring an intermediate dollar bottom coming in early November. That's certainly at odds with the above analysis, even if both are heading to the same place in the longer term. O'Connor is anticipating that the yearly dollar cycle will bottom in mid December. He estimated that the dollar would only bounce here for 4-8 days before resuming a downward trend. It's about mid-way in that period right now at 6 days up. Since the dollar will probably drive gold, it will be interesting to see which of these guys is more accurate.
In general it seems that all the gold bugs are salivating at buying gold in the $1200's or even down to $1050-$1150. They got caught flat footed when gold bounced at $1155 and went no lower. In this case they have the truck backed up and waiting at $1265, it probably won't happen. I think this time will be similar to $1155 leaving a lot of goldbugs at the station. In the same vein everyone and their brother is looking for the dollar to put in a 4-8 week bounce. A contrarian view would say that's not going to happen because it's expected. I prefer TO's 4-8 day bounce theory.
<< <i>The arguement isnt whether or not everything costs more, its whether the dollar is worthless. Prices are only increasing because wages increase. If you hold the prices of everything since 1992 static with wages then you would see everything costs about the same. McDonalds costs more because of minimum wage increases. Arent they selling hamburgers for 69c? I remember paying that in the 80s. I bought a new Jeep last November for $8000 off the sticker price. No trade-in. I paid less than the sticker price of a new Jeep in 2000!!! Do you remember the price of airline tickets in the 1980's? Prices today are a fraction of those fares and you have many more flights to choose from. Yes, hotels cost more--due to increased wages. My car insurance is the same as it was in 2002---pays to be a good driver. A trip to the movie theater is more today, but do you remember the price of a rental from Blockbuster? You can get pay-per-view cheaper today. >>
I think your perception of pricing is unrealistic. While McDonald's may still have a hamburger for .69, you can't count loss-leaders and pricing gimicks. There are articles about how Burger King is losing money on it's $1 Double Cheeseburger. 20 years ago I worked in a McDonald's and a Big Mac meal with Med fries and drinks was $3. Now you're paying at least $4 if not closer to $5. Your car example is also likely flawed as I'm not convinced you're comparing apples to apples, such as comparing buying a model after next year's models are out, and on top of that last year was an exceptionally bad year for car sales. I've bought 2 different cars in the past 2 or 3 years, and the 2009 Carolla was marginally higher - 5-10% than the 2004 we had, and the Avalanches I was looking at were all at least 20% higher than the 2003 I had. And airline travel is definitely higher. I fly PHX-LAS several time a year, and I used to be able to fly round trip for $90-$120 regularly. Now it's $150-200. I also fly PHX-CPR about once a year (and I watch prices closely) and I used to be able to get $220-280 10 years ago, now it's $350-400. Sure you could point to small up-start Allegiant air offers direct, frill-free flights to other small airport destinations at much lower prices, but that's an anomally, and we'll have to see if it is sustainable, although they do have a big advantage being free of any legacy costs. Your Blockbuster example is classic example of a maturing technology/industry that is going to get cheaper over time regardless. Just like when flying cars come out they'll be really expensive and then 10 years later they'll be a lot cheaper and 30 years later the industry will be mature and everyone will have one, regardless of the currency. Additionally, I eat out every day for lunch. A couple years ago my average lunch was about $6. My eating habits and locations haven't changed, and now my average is about $8.
And I 'm not sure if you're saying the argument is about the dollar being worthless or worth less. Clearly the dollar still has value as we can all exchange dollars for goods and services, but that changes constantly. But in the end all we have is an IOU from the federal reserve, which is not the same thing as having physical assets.
After looking at the charts some more, I think silver hold the answer. The move up in silver is really clearly defined, it started at $17.735 (the night I called a buy at $17.75). A 38.2% retracement of the move up requires a touch down to $22.19, and so far we've come down to 22.84. So there's a little bit more room to go. I don't think it's unreasonable to correlate $22.19 silver to $1300 or $1291 gold. Now whether we head to these levels from here or if we have another rally in between it remains to be seen, but I think patience for $1300 will win out here.
Those waiting for a bigger pullback will be disappointed. In this parabolic move gold will continually disappoint on the size of pullbacks, but it still has to perform these 38.2% retracements.
BTW, I was at my terminal on Friday when the 'flash crash' in DX (USD futures) occurred. I picked up a couple of contracts and made some quick cash. Unfortuantely I did not back up the truck and load up - I should have known better - but I didn't know what was going on so better to be prudent, and the market was incredibly thin during that last hour.
An interesting chart at the end of the above article shows gold vs. DJCB index in a bullish looking consolidation triangle. Breakout from these types of consolidation areas showed the way to the 2006 and 2008 gold rally peaks. Gold has really gone nowhere vs. bonds over the past 2-1/2 yrs. But it appears to be chomping at the bit to start its next major leg up. That first major leg up encompassed 3 steps and took 6 yrs.
BTW, I was at my terminal on Friday when the 'flash crash' in DX (USD futures) occurred. I picked up a couple of contracts and made some quick cash. Unfortuantely I did not back up the truck and load up - I should have known better - but I didn't know what was going on so better to be prudent, and the market was incredibly thin during that last hour.
When I returned home late Friday afternoon I noticed that massive "glitch" in USD futures at 4 pm and just assumed it was a nothing more than a computer screen error in the charting. No one mentioned it on any of the sites I frequent so I assemed it did not really happen. The last flash crash in the S&P was a harbinger of the last big down leg. This dollar dip went nearly all the way down to the 2009 December low. It also broke deeply below the neckline of the 10 month head and shoulders formation. A foreshadowing of what's to come or a head fake?
Gold bounced up right at the overseas open Sunday night and it seemed odd to me that the dollar did as well. Considering it was probably finishing off the adjustment for Friday's flash crash, that would now make more sense. Gold gapped up on the open to touch the upper down trend channel line but was promptly repelled. Let's see if it has the strength to go through it on the next attempt. Silver has a ways to go yet to reach it's upper channel downtrend line.
<< <i>When I returned home late Friday afternoon I noticed that massive "glitch" in USD futures at 4 pm and just assumed it was a nothing more than a computer screen error in the charting. No one mentioned it on any of the sites I frequent so I assemed it did not really happen. The last flash crash in the S&P was a harbinger of the last big down leg. This dollar dip went nearly all the way down to the 2009 December low. It also broke deeply below the neckline of the 10 month head and shoulders formation. A foreshadowing of what's to come or a head fake? >>
Not a glitch - it was real. I'm guessing it was as innocent as someone dumping their contracts before the weekend and not realizing how thin the market is at that time of the week, but boy that really cost someone some money. Maybe it was a mainpulation experiment. If you look a few weeks ago the same thing happened with the mini silver futures contract. At least in that case I could compare the mini contract with the full size contract. In this case, my only reassurance that something bigger wasn't happening was the fact that gold and silver didn't move. It just shocked me how slow DX was to recover... there was plenty of time to grab contracts $1 or more below what's it's trading at right now. That's $1000 profit per contract. Dang I should have bought more.
<< <i>Gold bounced up right at the overseas open Sunday night and it seemed odd to me that the dollar did as well. Considering it was probably finishing off the adjustment for Friday's flash crash, that would now make more sense. Gold gapped up on the open to touch the upper down trend channel line but was promptly repelled. Let's see if it has the strength to go through it on the next attempt. Silver has a ways to go yet to reach it's upper channel downtrend line. >>
The gap up on gold futures was only $0.60. The dollar has ground lower since open, while gold is bouncing up at the highs. I'm short gold at ~1338.5 with pretty tight stop and I'm going to sell partial after a just a few dollars of profit and go to trailing stop if I don't get stopped out.
BTW, support for tonight at 1297.7, 1310.9, 1319.4, 1324.1, 1332.6, resistance at 1338.5, 1350.5.
I should have been more precise. By the gold gap up on open I meant that first 15 minute gap/bump that took it up to around $1337 (+$9). Could just be a head fake to draw in some lemmings. But I think gold did it's due diligence with 5 waves down even if it seemed to end a bit premature at $1314. A number of miners also show a nice 5 wave signature. And as I mentioned before a number of them have been correcting for 2-4 weeks. Everyone is so used to gold getting pummeled on the drawdowns (ie $735, $1033, $1226) so it's just expected. That might be the case at major blow off tops as those last 3 were. One thing going for gold this time is that it's only 1/2 way in it's 22.5 month cycle (approx 2 yrs) between major tops. I would expect the next major top in fall of 2011. As an intermediate top, the $1388 point shouldn't have the draw down that the other ones displayed.
I know Cohodk like's to trade copper. Looking at the chart tonight it's looking REALLY good to me. I don't like to trade things I don't follow so closely, but I'm going to have to dabble. Going long copper tonight!
Also gold broke 1340 and kept running. Still holding off on going long. I don't see gold getting through 1350.5, but who knows? Anything seems possible tonight. In the past this is where I would have jumped on board just to see it reverse significantly the other way. I'm going to wait for a better entry point, and just focus on my copper play for now.
Copper has made a great run since June/July. I think gold and silver will do better from here however. Copper is only 15c away from a 4yr resistance level that may give same major headwinds for a while. I know Adam Hamilton of Zeal has recommended copper miners since July when few others did. And boy did they have a great run. From what I gather those guys are now switching out to get back into gold miners. What I don't like about the copper chart is that it has that 5 point broadening top pattern starting back in January. And counting waves up from the last correction does seem to fit a 5 wave pattern fairly well. But who knows. It could be gathering right now to blow $4.00 out of the water in a multi-year IH&S formation. The hourly copper chart appears to show expanding volatility the past month. Wouldn't that tend to imply this pattern is more likely approaching a top rather than getting ready to break out?
Lightened up on some miners on this bounce back to $1340. Too bad we didn't see the $1349 during trading hours today. I think the bankers will take the opportunity to kick gold a bit on either Tuesday or Wednesday as futures expire. It might end up being nothing more than sideways action. But if it does take a quick plunge, I want to be able to buy accordingly.
I'll post this monthly chart of copper which shows that it is has broken a critical resistance level (although not quite decisive). But the strength showing on the weekly chart looks really good to me. Breaking $3.93 will make $5+ copper a certainty, and we were only $.04 away last night.
whether or not copper will be more profitable than gold I have no idea, but I suspect that it will go up along with most all commodities over the next few years. It will be hard for any commodity to compete with something in the final stages of a parabolic move.
So the move up in gold was decent, but nothing about it was too impressive. All of the action came at market open Sunday night. In the past I think I might have gotten excited and jumped back in on a day like today, only to see gold turn around on me. Tomorrow is Oct 26 which should be a big day for gold, and it could go either way. But I think tomorrow and/Wed we could see gold finally hit 1300. So I'm going to hold out for $1300 and then pile in big, unless I see gold head decisively in the other direction. I'll be tempted to short any surges to 1345-1350 tonight or tomorrow morning.
Resistance is at 1380.2, 1360, 1350.2 and support is at 1339.5, 1330, 1319.6, and 1299.4. <--- 1299.4 Downside target coincidence?
Played around in copper all day and made a few hundred, but I'm bailing for Tuesday which I think will be a wild day. At the moment I'm in 100% cash. I didn't move any gold stocks - I have mixed feelings on these. I don't think the downside is large enough to warrant selling yesterday and buying Tues or Wed - it could be a few percent - but the chances of me playing it optimally are too small to even try.
Yes, cohodk loves to short copper and feels it's over valued. I believe one of us said it would see $4 before it ever saw $2.......getting close. Copper has been on a tear since $3.................China demand. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Yes, cohodk loves to short copper and feels it's over valued. I believe one of us said it would see $4 before it ever saw $2.......getting close. Copper has been on a tear since $3.................China demand. MJ >>
China demand or inflation, take your pick. Prices aren't going up, nah... Everything's getting cheaper!
So there was no big move in gold (or anything) today, so IMO the move is coming tonight or tomorrow. So nothing much changes except that the next potential turning point is Fri/Mon, so if we start to see some downside, it's likely to take/last until then, probably bottoming 1270-1300.
Support for Wed is at 1306, 1321.7, 1331.1, 1337.4, and resistance is at 1346.8, 1353.1, and 1368.8.
I think the high for tonight will be ~1347, with downside to ensue.
I've seen Petch's work in the past but it's been a while since I've seen anything. I like the clues he picks up from the spreading or tightening of the BB series. A little dry and hard to read some of his charts. I put his analysis into a stock charts format for easier viewing below. Change the time frame from weekly to daily or monthly for the other views. His view of the dollar is several more weeks of strength followed by a final leg down into February or so. That generally jives with the other analysts I previously posted. Note his forecasts for dollar and gold through 2011-2012 at the end of the article. Looks like this current bounce will be more than 4-8 days.
Using that same daily BB/FS charting for Gold, Silver, and GDX it would have called the top pretty close. A bit premature on GDXJ however. Also shows potential of more downside with those upper bands having not yet spread apart.
HUI looking to outperform gold into 2011 per Hoye. It's been a long consolidation for the miners.
Today we finally saw some of the down move I've been expecting, down to about 1318. I expect more downside for Thurs and Fri so we can hit the 1300 buy target, although I'm getting more and more convinced that 1315 might be about it. In the past I would have been over-anxious and bought at this level only to ride it lower - this time I'm going to hold out for 1300.
It seems like the spark for the upcoming move is likely to be an announcement regarding QE2, although I question whether it will come before election day. I think the markets will react wildly on that announcement when it comes, probably pushing gold and the markets wildly one way, then the other. You'll have to be nimble to take advantage of it, and you'll have to have conviction if you are long and it moves swiftly down $30-50 to hold on to long positions or to enter the market. At such time it won't matter what you buy, copper, silver, oil, gold, SP500, it's all going to go up nicely, IMO.
The one thing is that gold, silver, and some other charts are very, very close to completing 38.2% retracements of the last 3 month's up-moves, that I have to put a big expectation into this actually happening for all of them. So this means $22.17 for silver (entire move from 17.735) and $1299.x for gold. We're so close that I can't imagine these charts not extending down - even if ever so briefly - to finish the retracement... and such a move would be mega, mega, mega, mega bullish in this context as gold & silver would be "free" to zoom upward. ALSO - the USD is only a little ways from completing a 38.2% retracement if the last move down...
Like I've said before, the only thing that concerns me about buying at $1300 is that too many people are waiting to pounce at this level.
Looking at the GC daily chart, the indicators like the price oscillator, momentum, and RSI will be in fine shape (but by no means bottomed out) with another day or two of down-to-sideways movement. Even the weekly RSI is down below overbought level (but not by much).
Sp500 has been moving sideways for several days, storing up energy, getting ready for a big move - up! Near term target is 1220.
I currently have a small short silver and gold position from ~1330, but I will close it near 1315 in case that is as low as it gets.
Edited to add: Support for gold at 1279, 1304.1, 1314.6, and resistance at 1328.2, 1339.7. Incidently, there is a target at around 1306, so I could see this coming into play either as an intermediate low or as THE low - gold would love to frustrate all of those waiting for $1300 but stopping just $4 short of that target!
<< <i>I know Cohodk like's to trade copper. Looking at the chart tonight it's looking REALLY good to me. I don't like to trade things I don't follow so closely, but I'm going to have to dabble. Going long copper tonight!
Also gold broke 1340 and kept running. Still holding off on going long. I don't see gold getting through 1350.5, but who knows? Anything seems possible tonight. In the past this is where I would have jumped on board just to see it reverse significantly the other way. I'm going to wait for a better entry point, and just focus on my copper play for now. >>
Sorry, I havent been visiting the PM forum much in the last few weeks, but here's my take. DOWN!!!!
MJ, stocks were overpriced in 1999, but that didnt stop them from going up in 2000. We know what happened in 2001. We knew real estate was overpriced in 2005, but that didnt stop it from going higher in 2006. Copper is overpriced today, you wanna tempt history?
<MJ, stocks were overpriced in 1999, but that didnt stop them from going up in 2000. We know what happened in 2001. We knew real estate was overpriced in 2005, but that didnt stop it from going higher in 2006. Copper is overpriced today, you wanna tempt history>
Nah, per usual you are covering and hedging all your prediction bets. There is no way for you to lose when you give yourself a berth that wide. Copper eventuallly will be beaten down just like Apple, Google or what ever. Every dog as it's day. The fact is copper went from $3.00 when you were talking it down. It's now worth $4.00. I still contend it's going to $4.00 before it ever hits $2.00. I've been saying that since it's been at $3. Anyways, I hope you made some money with copper ofnthe way up. It's been on a tear. Where have you been during this big pm run up and dollar meltdown? You have been missed!!!! Hopefully, you've been hunting steelies. If so, I demand a fishing report wirh pictures! Hope all is well. I really do miss you! MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
There are a lot of ways to draw those lines on that copper chart. With stocks looking ready to break higher, as well as PMs ready to continue their run higher, I find it hard to imagine copper taking a dive right here, but we'll have to see.
Stocks are ready to soar, and Friday is an important cycle day so we could see some action Friday. SP500 target 1220, perhaps in one day.
Gold is frustrating me. It seems me and half the world are waiting for a pullback to 1290 or 1300, I almost think it might not happen. As an indicator I'll be looking at a decisive move and close over 1348. But I have to be careful, as in the past this is about the point where I give up on the pullback, go long, and then end up riding the correction down rather than getting the good entry point. I'm going to sit out a wee bit longer.
The McLellan indicator calls for a low in the XAU on Friday (today), and sometimes that means a wild whipsaw is coming. A QE-related announcement could do this, and it wouldn't be unexpected a day or two before elections to goose the markets.
By the way... it's kind of easy to say in hindsight, but a few days ago I was eying Palladium... PA has a lot further to go on this move... probably about $800 for a target.
<< <i>By the way... it's kind of easy to say in hindsight, but a few days ago I was eying Palladium... PA has a lot further to go on this move... probably about $800 for a target. >>
Hello PF
Which factors IYO are the drivers for this....
Emerging markets/Auto's china/rare earth metals..floating all boats?
Thanx
Singapore & Hong Kong March/April Hong kong/Long Beach JUNE Table #838 MACAU emgworldwide@gmail.com Cell: 512.808.3197 EMERGING MARKET GROUP PCGS, NGC, CCE & NCS, CGC, PSA, Auth. Dealer
<< <i>PF are you still holding these or did you have a chance to get out? I hate it when PM's make a large move up or down in less than an hour. >>
I was in cash until this morning. I have a small gold long position but a breakout over 1153 is key and I will sell on any weakness. I also went long PA with a medium position.
<< <i>Which factors IYO are the drivers for this....
Emerging markets/Auto's china/rare earth metals..floating all boats? >>
I can speculate, but it's the technicals that I'm looking at, the news really doesn't matter. Overall we're in a commodities bull market and everything is going to go up. PA is just looking like it's going to move up right away. PL not looking like it's ready to make a move quite yet.
<< <i><MJ, stocks were overpriced in 1999, but that didnt stop them from going up in 2000. We know what happened in 2001. We knew real estate was overpriced in 2005, but that didnt stop it from going higher in 2006. Copper is overpriced today, you wanna tempt history>
Nah, per usual you are covering and hedging all your prediction bets. There is no way for you to lose when you give yourself a berth that wide. Copper eventuallly will be beaten down just like Apple, Google or what ever. Every dog as it's day. The fact is copper went from $3.00 when you were talking it down. It's now worth $4.00. I still contend it's going to $4.00 before it ever hits $2.00. I've been saying that since it's been at $3. Anyways, I hope you made some money with copper ofnthe way up. It's been on a tear. Where have you been during this big pm run up and dollar meltdown? You have been missed!!!! Hopefully, you've been hunting steelies. If so, I demand a fishing report wirh pictures! Hope all is well. I really do miss you! MJ >>
I said copper was going lower in Jan. Cha-ching. I said copper was going lower in Apr and again in June. Double cha-ching. I also said I covered my copper shorts in July. In Aug I drew attention to the SLV chart on several occasions. Copper at $4 is grossly overpriced. Doesnt mean it cant bubble, but those looking for sustained gains will be disappointed.
I've been playing the YEN, as I mentioned you should be trading since May. Many, many more stocks---AMZN, PCLN, FFIV, CMG--- have outperformed PMs the last few months so why waste time with PMs when quite frankly there has been very little to "trade". It was a "buy and hold" play and that aint my game.
The salmon and steelies are in the river and deer season has opened. My favorite time of year.
Businesswise been busy talking with accountants, lawyers, and bankers on the formation of a hedge fund.
PC, no matter how you may draw the lines, there is a ton of resistance at $4.00. At 3.80 it makes a great risk/reward short trade--cover on a break of $4--lose 20c, or ride the drop back to 3--make 80c. I'll make 4-1 trades all day. I did cover 2/3rd of my BOM trade though. Hard not to take 10% in 3 days.
Those looking for dollar weakness must realize other currencies need to appreciate, many of which look awfully frothy.
That photo is AWESOME!!!!!! WTG..............That boy appears to be a keeper as well!
FYI- I've been in the YEN much much longer then May. Actually since it was at par. I only wish I would have pushed the trade harder. As for copper, that has been as hot of a long trade as any equities play you could have of been in. Just admit it, copper rocked
I sleep with a hedge fund manager from time to time. Don't worry, you are not my type
As for the dollar. I agree, it's very frothy
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I've mentioned many times that my #1 rule is "Never take big losses". Rule #2 is "Never underestimate a mania". Copper fits that statement, so I stay away, except when I can see the whites of its eyes, such as I did this past Tuesday. One shot, one kill. On to the next.
Like I said, I've missed you...........I like the one kill creed for short term trading. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The movements in the dollar futures has been quite dramatic the past month. After carrying a huge short position and ratio (ie 8-1) for quite some time, the commercials swiftly pared that down in Septembe such that by the start of October they were actually slightly long on the dollar. However over the past few weeks they have quickly reversed course and now significantly net short once again. Wonder if they are starting to load up for the next leg down? The dollar is now sitting on the lower support line of a 2 yr. consolidation triangle.
To those that say the broader money supply aggregates haven't changed much over the past 2 yrs I have to nod my head in agreement. But then show them this chart which shows +2 TRILLION in foreign CB TBond holdings in that period.
I still like the way copper looks. If the next couple of weeks unfold like I think they will, it will be copper in the mid to high $4's in no time. But I think there are better plays so I'm probably going to steer clear of Hg.
I'm going to post a response to your comments about the USD in the Nov thread, RR.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>I just picked 2008 out of the air. It was a time when taxidrivers, Iranians and supermodels were choosing to own Euros over dollars. It was before the stock market collapsed. I have no agenda, these are the facts. Here's another--The dollar is within a couple pennies of where it was in 1992!!!!! >>
The point is, in the past decade the dollar index has been higher and it's been lower than what it is today, so to even try to use that for a comparison is meaningless. And as far as the dollar being within pennies of 1992, again, are you talking about that worthless dollar index again? Everything costs a heck of a lot more today than it did 18 years ago.
<< <i>Point was that in light of Trillions of dollars being printed, the US dollar still has still maintained its value against Euros and Candos. Amazing, isnt it? The Aussie dollar is up about 12%--US Treasuries have outperformed that. The Swiss Franc is up more, but hey, they're neutral.
I don't agree at all. I remember going to Europe just after they started the Euro and I remember getting more Euros per USD. Now you get a fraction of a Euro per dollar. Same with Australia, I remember taking about 25% off of the AUD prices when I was there in the mid 00's, now they are almost equal! And what if you had invested in Australian treasuries 5 years ago? You'd be up 25% PLUS the interest rate they were paying!
I can think of only a few things that are cheaper today than a few years ago. Real estate (which doesn't count because it's still stabilizing after coming out of a bubble), some technology (which doesn't count because it naturally gets cheaper as it matures). I do know that I'm paying more at all of my favorite fast food places, and I just purchased a new car and those prices have definitely gone up, insurance and taxes have gone up, travel has gone up, all forms of entertainment have gone up, and on and on. At my real job I end up spending or directing the spend of probably close to a million dollar worth of equipment per year - electrical, mechanical, COTS & custom and I can tell you that NONE of the prices have gone down, and in most cases we've had at least two price hikes in the last 2-3 years. So I'm not sure where you live, but I might need to move there soon because everything here in Arizona just keeps going up. >>
Just after the Euro came out it traded down to about 80c in 2001. So yes, you did get more Euros. Im not debating that. I simply stated that since the "worthless dollar bandbagon" really started to roll in 2008 that the dollar has appeciated against some of its major competitors. Im not talking about gold or silver or other so-called REEs.
The arguement isnt whether or not everything costs more, its whether the dollar is worthless. Prices are only increasing because wages increase. If you hold the prices of everything since 1992 static with wages then you would see everything costs about the same. McDonalds costs more because of minimum wage increases. Arent they selling hamburgers for 69c? I remember paying that in the 80s. I bought a new Jeep last November for $8000 off the sticker price. No trade-in. I paid less than the sticker price of a new Jeep in 2000!!! Do you remember the price of airline tickets in the 1980's? Prices today are a fraction of those fares and you have many more flights to choose from. Yes, hotels cost more--due to increased wages. My car insurance is the same as it was in 2002---pays to be a good driver.
I will gripe about my real estate taxes though, they're up 30% in the last 5 years. Why? Increase wages and benefits!!!
I think everyone wants a free ride by having increased wages and stable prices. It doesnt work that way. Never has, never will.
Roadrunner, im not debating whether gold or silver should go higher. We produce more of the stuff every year and currently supply is not meeting demand. So yes, we are farming for gold and silver. I hope gold goes to 5000 and silver to 200, but even then the only people who will care are are those who own it and those who wish they did.
PC, nice move in dumping your contracts.
GDX is running the possibility of a close under the 50dma. It has now lost all it gains since late August and is below the "breakout" area represented by the highs in Mar 08, Dec 09, Apr and June. $XAU is still hanging on to its "breakout" represented by the line connecting the tops in 2008 and 2009. Still above the 50dma.
NEM has broken the uptrend from the Feb lows.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In 1980 the median wage was $20,300. In 2009, 49,800. ----2.45x
In 1980 the median hose was $70,000. $205,000 today.-----2.95x
In 1980 a 30yr mortgage was 15%. So the payment on a $100,000 loan would have $1264.
Today a 30yr mortgage is 4.5%. So that same $1264 payment would get you a $250,000. So you can get a mortgage today that is 2.5x larger than in 1980 for the same dollars. Interesting how thats the same multiple as wages increased. Hmmm. Also interesting how the median house has increased at roughly the same rate. Hmmm.
So the same dollar in 1980, could get you the same house in 2010. Hmmmm!!!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Eldorado Gold chart
I thought GDX would fall another 1/2 pt and close its gap at 53.5. But it held around 54 which are also the peaks seen in May and June. Some of the seniors have closed below the 50 dma line a number of times during the Feb-Oct run up. So I am not too worried about one or two of them closing under it by a small amount. I know if I strictly heed every TA warning that gold gives off I would be shook off very early in every up trend. Looking for gold to complete its pattern (if not already done) this evening. The juniors have faired much better and few of them are anywhere near violating their uptrend lines. GLD did close it's gap today from the 2nd day in October by briefly dropping to $128.7. That would appear to accomplish most of the goals of this $1388-$131X down leg. A bounce back to the $1350-$1360 would then close the gaps left on the initial drop.
Another comment I have about GDX or the HUI, is that it's not as "pure" an indicator as it should be. This is quite apparent when you look at 3 year charts of the major gold mutual funds that don't trade minute by minute: GOLDX, TGLDX, USAGX, USERX, FSAGX, OPGSX, BGEIX, etc. Those charts much more closely replicate gold's performance and don't quite have the issue that GDX has with falling below 2008 and 2009 highs. Those funds aren't as easily painted as GDX (no shorts?) and they are much more diverse in their holdings. GDX is somewhat tainted in that the 3 biggest (ie slow moving) miners make up 39% of the index. And the top 5 miners (ABX, NEM, GG, AU, KGC) make up 50%. You won't find that with any of the above gold mutual funds. On top of that toss in silver miners that encompass 20% of GDX. GDX is not the ideal vehicle for tracking overall miner performance imo. It is a decent vehicle for tracking the top 5 gold miners as a group. There are also some loser gold/PM mutual funds that haven't even kept up with miners or bullion the past few years. I don't have an explanation other than they stink....lol. Some haven't even yet broken out. I guess there are dogs in everything.
I like to use the simplicity of the CDNX to give the overall trend of the miners. While these may not be seniors or intermediates it is less subject to whipsawing and chart painting. The current uptrend is still relatively short compared to the first upleg that lasted from Dec '08 to Dec '09. CDNX
...I'm not debating whether gold or silver should go higher. We produce more of the stuff every year and currently supply is not meeting demand. So yes, we are farming for gold and silver. I hope gold goes to 5000 and silver to 200, but even then the only people who will care are are those who own it and those who wish they did.
I wasn't debating either. I just thought that PM's are a slightly different breed of commodity where production can't just be turned up on demand. It's not quite like planting more crops or digging for coal. The reality of it is that world gold ounces mined have dropped since the 2001 peak. If they are calling for an increase in production, they aren't doing a very good job of it. It now takes 3X the total ore mined to get the same net gold production of just around 10 years ago. Hence mining costs are increasing while finished ounces mined is at best stagnant. We're farming for gold, just not being overly successfull at it. It's like a fisherman having to have his nets in the water 3X as long as before to get the same catch.
In 1980 the median hose was $70,000. $205,000 today.-----2.95x........what is that, gold braided hose?
roadrunner
Gold looks destined to hit the 38.2% retracement of the entire move up from 1155.6 which is 1299.9. I'm loading up the truck at that point, although I see possibility for an overshoot as low as 1291... For friday, support at 1268.5, 1299.9, 1312.9, and resistance at 1331.3, 1344.3.
I'll be shutting down the long position on a breach of 1290...
Adam Hamilton's latest article on how gold's dollar rally over the past 2 months was just a mirage...all based on dollar devaluation while the Euro/Gold stayed constant. He notes that no major gold move has ended w/o gold rallying hard in all major currencies. Considering Euro gold has been consolidating under E$1000 for months, there's no real world rally in gold at this time. But there will be as soon as Euro/gold is done consolidating under E$1000. Another view that's definitely worth the read.
Gold valued in Euro's
roadrunner
General stocks (SP500) are looking good and keep grinding higher. I see no reason for this to stop. I think we've seen most of the downside in gold stocks, and they will be helped by a rising stock market. Since we've seen most of the downside in gold - we're only really talking $30 additional down - I think this is a decent buying point, with the best opportunities probably coming intraday Mon or Tues.
If you skip down to the October updates this analyst is looking for the Dow and gold to trend down through November and into December before turning back up again towards the 12,000+ range. His calls on the SM, PM's, and dollar have been quite good the past 2-1/2 yrs. He has been a bull on stocks since March of 2009....and still is as inflation of currencies floats many boats. I once read his accounting of successfully shorting the October 1987 crash almost perfectly...an interesting read. And he had the documents to prove he made those trades.
O'Connor on the dollar cycles
Toby O'Connor is figuring an intermediate dollar bottom coming in early November. That's certainly at odds with the above analysis, even if both are heading to the same place in the longer term. O'Connor is anticipating that the yearly dollar cycle will bottom in mid December. He estimated that the dollar would only bounce here for 4-8 days before resuming a downward trend. It's about mid-way in that period right now at 6 days up. Since the dollar will probably drive gold, it will be interesting to see which of these guys is more accurate.
In general it seems that all the gold bugs are salivating at buying gold in the $1200's or even down to $1050-$1150. They got caught flat footed when gold bounced at $1155 and went no lower. In this case they have the truck backed up and waiting at $1265, it probably won't happen. I think this time will be similar to $1155 leaving a lot of goldbugs at the station. In the same vein everyone and their brother is looking for the dollar to put in a 4-8 week bounce. A contrarian view would say that's not going to happen because it's expected. I prefer TO's 4-8 day bounce theory.
roadrunner
<< <i>The arguement isnt whether or not everything costs more, its whether the dollar is worthless. Prices are only increasing because wages increase. If you hold the prices of everything since 1992 static with wages then you would see everything costs about the same. McDonalds costs more because of minimum wage increases. Arent they selling hamburgers for 69c? I remember paying that in the 80s. I bought a new Jeep last November for $8000 off the sticker price. No trade-in. I paid less than the sticker price of a new Jeep in 2000!!! Do you remember the price of airline tickets in the 1980's? Prices today are a fraction of those fares and you have many more flights to choose from. Yes, hotels cost more--due to increased wages. My car insurance is the same as it was in 2002---pays to be a good driver.
I think your perception of pricing is unrealistic. While McDonald's may still have a hamburger for .69, you can't count loss-leaders and pricing gimicks. There are articles about how Burger King is losing money on it's $1 Double Cheeseburger. 20 years ago I worked in a McDonald's and a Big Mac meal with Med fries and drinks was $3. Now you're paying at least $4 if not closer to $5. Your car example is also likely flawed as I'm not convinced you're comparing apples to apples, such as comparing buying a model after next year's models are out, and on top of that last year was an exceptionally bad year for car sales. I've bought 2 different cars in the past 2 or 3 years, and the 2009 Carolla was marginally higher - 5-10% than the 2004 we had, and the Avalanches I was looking at were all at least 20% higher than the 2003 I had. And airline travel is definitely higher. I fly PHX-LAS several time a year, and I used to be able to fly round trip for $90-$120 regularly. Now it's $150-200. I also fly PHX-CPR about once a year (and I watch prices closely) and I used to be able to get $220-280 10 years ago, now it's $350-400. Sure you could point to small up-start Allegiant air offers direct, frill-free flights to other small airport destinations at much lower prices, but that's an anomally, and we'll have to see if it is sustainable, although they do have a big advantage being free of any legacy costs. Your Blockbuster example is classic example of a maturing technology/industry that is going to get cheaper over time regardless. Just like when flying cars come out they'll be really expensive and then 10 years later they'll be a lot cheaper and 30 years later the industry will be mature and everyone will have one, regardless of the currency. Additionally, I eat out every day for lunch. A couple years ago my average lunch was about $6. My eating habits and locations haven't changed, and now my average is about $8.
And I 'm not sure if you're saying the argument is about the dollar being worthless or worth less. Clearly the dollar still has value as we can all exchange dollars for goods and services, but that changes constantly. But in the end all we have is an IOU from the federal reserve, which is not the same thing as having physical assets.
Those waiting for a bigger pullback will be disappointed. In this parabolic move gold will continually disappoint on the size of pullbacks, but it still has to perform these 38.2% retracements.
BTW, I was at my terminal on Friday when the 'flash crash' in DX (USD futures) occurred. I picked up a couple of contracts and made some quick cash. Unfortuantely I did not back up the truck and load up - I should have known better - but I didn't know what was going on so better to be prudent, and the market was incredibly thin during that last hour.
<< <i>I worked in a McDonald's and a Big Mac meal with Med fries and drinks was $3. >>
The good ol' #1 is around $6.50 here... but since the fountain has been moved into the lobby I can refill my soda!!!
It's the $1 mcdouble for me now.
An interesting chart at the end of the above article shows gold vs. DJCB index in a bullish looking consolidation triangle. Breakout from these types of consolidation areas showed the way to the 2006 and 2008 gold rally peaks. Gold has really gone nowhere vs. bonds over the past 2-1/2 yrs. But it appears to be chomping at the bit to start its next major leg up. That first major leg up encompassed 3 steps and took 6 yrs.
BTW, I was at my terminal on Friday when the 'flash crash' in DX (USD futures) occurred. I picked up a couple of contracts and made some quick cash. Unfortuantely I did not back up the truck and load up - I should have known better - but I didn't know what was going on so better to be prudent, and the market was incredibly thin during that last hour.
When I returned home late Friday afternoon I noticed that massive "glitch" in USD futures at 4 pm and just assumed it was a nothing more than a computer screen error in the charting. No one mentioned it on any of the sites I frequent so I assemed it did not really happen. The last flash crash in the S&P was a harbinger of the last big down leg. This dollar dip went nearly all the way down to the 2009 December low. It also broke deeply below the neckline of the 10 month head and shoulders formation. A foreshadowing of what's to come or a head fake?
Gold bounced up right at the overseas open Sunday night and it seemed odd to me that the dollar did as well. Considering it was probably finishing off the adjustment for Friday's flash crash, that would now make more sense. Gold gapped up on the open to touch the upper down trend channel line but was promptly repelled. Let's see if it has the strength to go through it on the next attempt. Silver has a ways to go yet to reach it's upper channel downtrend line.
roadrunner
<< <i>When I returned home late Friday afternoon I noticed that massive "glitch" in USD futures at 4 pm and just assumed it was a nothing more than a computer screen error in the charting. No one mentioned it on any of the sites I frequent so I assemed it did not really happen. The last flash crash in the S&P was a harbinger of the last big down leg. This dollar dip went nearly all the way down to the 2009 December low. It also broke deeply below the neckline of the 10 month head and shoulders formation. A foreshadowing of what's to come or a head fake? >>
Not a glitch - it was real. I'm guessing it was as innocent as someone dumping their contracts before the weekend and not realizing how thin the market is at that time of the week, but boy that really cost someone some money. Maybe it was a mainpulation experiment. If you look a few weeks ago the same thing happened with the mini silver futures contract. At least in that case I could compare the mini contract with the full size contract. In this case, my only reassurance that something bigger wasn't happening was the fact that gold and silver didn't move. It just shocked me how slow DX was to recover... there was plenty of time to grab contracts $1 or more below what's it's trading at right now. That's $1000 profit per contract. Dang I should have bought more.
<< <i>Gold bounced up right at the overseas open Sunday night and it seemed odd to me that the dollar did as well. Considering it was probably finishing off the adjustment for Friday's flash crash, that would now make more sense. Gold gapped up on the open to touch the upper down trend channel line but was promptly repelled. Let's see if it has the strength to go through it on the next attempt. Silver has a ways to go yet to reach it's upper channel downtrend line. >>
The gap up on gold futures was only $0.60. The dollar has ground lower since open, while gold is bouncing up at the highs. I'm short gold at ~1338.5 with pretty tight stop and I'm going to sell partial after a just a few dollars of profit and go to trailing stop if I don't get stopped out.
BTW, support for tonight at 1297.7, 1310.9, 1319.4, 1324.1, 1332.6, resistance at 1338.5, 1350.5.
USD Futures Chart
roadrunner
Also gold broke 1340 and kept running. Still holding off on going long. I don't see gold getting through 1350.5, but who knows? Anything seems possible tonight. In the past this is where I would have jumped on board just to see it reverse significantly the other way. I'm going to wait for a better entry point, and just focus on my copper play for now.
copper chart - weekly
copper chart - hourly
Lightened up on some miners on this bounce back to $1340. Too bad we didn't see the $1349 during trading hours today. I think the bankers will take the opportunity to kick gold a bit on either Tuesday or Wednesday as futures expire. It might end up being nothing more than sideways action. But if it does take a quick plunge, I want to be able to buy accordingly.
roadrunner
whether or not copper will be more profitable than gold I have no idea, but I suspect that it will go up along with most all commodities over the next few years. It will be hard for any commodity to compete with something in the final stages of a parabolic move.
Resistance is at 1380.2, 1360, 1350.2 and support is at 1339.5, 1330, 1319.6, and 1299.4. <--- 1299.4 Downside target coincidence?
Played around in copper all day and made a few hundred, but I'm bailing for Tuesday which I think will be a wild day. At the moment I'm in 100% cash. I didn't move any gold stocks - I have mixed feelings on these. I don't think the downside is large enough to warrant selling yesterday and buying Tues or Wed - it could be a few percent - but the chances of me playing it optimally are too small to even try.
Yes, cohodk loves to short copper and feels it's over valued. I believe one of us said it would see $4 before it ever saw $2
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Yes, cohodk loves to short copper and feels it's over valued. I believe one of us said it would see $4 before it ever saw $2
China demand or inflation, take your pick. Prices aren't going up, nah... Everything's getting cheaper!
Support for Wed is at 1306, 1321.7, 1331.1, 1337.4, and resistance is at 1346.8, 1353.1, and 1368.8.
I think the high for tonight will be ~1347, with downside to ensue.
I've seen Petch's work in the past but it's been a while since I've seen anything. I like the clues he picks up from the spreading or tightening of the BB series. A little dry and hard to read some of his charts. I put his analysis into a stock charts format for easier viewing below. Change the time frame from weekly to daily or monthly for the other views. His view of the dollar is several more weeks of strength followed by a final leg down into February or so. That generally jives with the other analysts I previously posted. Note his forecasts for dollar and gold through 2011-2012 at the end of the article. Looks like this current bounce will be more than 4-8 days.
Better view of USD chart
Using that same daily BB/FS charting for Gold, Silver, and GDX it would have called the top pretty close. A bit premature on GDXJ however. Also shows potential of more downside with those upper bands having not yet spread apart.
HUI looking to outperform gold into 2011 per Hoye. It's been a long consolidation for the miners.
Hoye on HUI
roadrunner
It seems like the spark for the upcoming move is likely to be an announcement regarding QE2, although I question whether it will come before election day. I think the markets will react wildly on that announcement when it comes, probably pushing gold and the markets wildly one way, then the other. You'll have to be nimble to take advantage of it, and you'll have to have conviction if you are long and it moves swiftly down $30-50 to hold on to long positions or to enter the market. At such time it won't matter what you buy, copper, silver, oil, gold, SP500, it's all going to go up nicely, IMO.
The one thing is that gold, silver, and some other charts are very, very close to completing 38.2% retracements of the last 3 month's up-moves, that I have to put a big expectation into this actually happening for all of them. So this means $22.17 for silver (entire move from 17.735) and $1299.x for gold. We're so close that I can't imagine these charts not extending down - even if ever so briefly - to finish the retracement... and such a move would be mega, mega, mega, mega bullish in this context as gold & silver would be "free" to zoom upward. ALSO - the USD is only a little ways from completing a 38.2% retracement if the last move down...
Like I've said before, the only thing that concerns me about buying at $1300 is that too many people are waiting to pounce at this level.
Looking at the GC daily chart, the indicators like the price oscillator, momentum, and RSI will be in fine shape (but by no means bottomed out) with another day or two of down-to-sideways movement. Even the weekly RSI is down below overbought level (but not by much).
Sp500 has been moving sideways for several days, storing up energy, getting ready for a big move - up! Near term target is 1220.
I currently have a small short silver and gold position from ~1330, but I will close it near 1315 in case that is as low as it gets.
Edited to add: Support for gold at 1279, 1304.1, 1314.6, and resistance at 1328.2, 1339.7.
Incidently, there is a target at around 1306, so I could see this coming into play either as an intermediate low or as THE low - gold would love to frustrate all of those waiting for $1300 but stopping just $4 short of that target!
<< <i>I know Cohodk like's to trade copper. Looking at the chart tonight it's looking REALLY good to me. I don't like to trade things I don't follow so closely, but I'm going to have to dabble. Going long copper tonight!
Also gold broke 1340 and kept running. Still holding off on going long. I don't see gold getting through 1350.5, but who knows? Anything seems possible tonight. In the past this is where I would have jumped on board just to see it reverse significantly the other way. I'm going to wait for a better entry point, and just focus on my copper play for now. >>
Sorry, I havent been visiting the PM forum much in the last few weeks, but here's my take. DOWN!!!!
MJ, stocks were overpriced in 1999, but that didnt stop them from going up in 2000. We know what happened in 2001. We knew real estate was overpriced in 2005, but that didnt stop it from going higher in 2006. Copper is overpriced today, you wanna tempt history?
I did make this trade on Tuesday at $11.90.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
Nah, per usual you are covering and hedging all your prediction bets
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Stocks are ready to soar, and Friday is an important cycle day so we could see some action Friday. SP500 target 1220, perhaps in one day.
Gold is frustrating me. It seems me and half the world are waiting for a pullback to 1290 or 1300, I almost think it might not happen. As an indicator I'll be looking at a decisive move and close over 1348. But I have to be careful, as in the past this is about the point where I give up on the pullback, go long, and then end up riding the correction down rather than getting the good entry point. I'm going to sit out a wee bit longer.
The McLellan indicator calls for a low in the XAU on Friday (today), and sometimes that means a wild whipsaw is coming. A QE-related announcement could do this, and it wouldn't be unexpected a day or two before elections to goose the markets.
I currently have a small short silver and gold position from ~1330, but I will close it near 1315 in case that is as low as it gets.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
<< <i>By the way... it's kind of easy to say in hindsight, but a few days ago I was eying Palladium... PA has a lot further to go on this move... probably about $800 for a target. >>
Hello PF
Which factors IYO are the drivers for this....
Emerging markets/Auto's
china/rare earth metals..floating all boats?
Thanx
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<< <i>PF are you still holding these or did you have a chance to get out? I hate it when PM's make a large move up or down in less than an hour. >>
I was in cash until this morning. I have a small gold long position but a breakout over 1153 is key and I will sell on any weakness. I also went long PA with a medium position.
<< <i>Which factors IYO are the drivers for this....
Emerging markets/Auto's
china/rare earth metals..floating all boats? >>
I can speculate, but it's the technicals that I'm looking at, the news really doesn't matter. Overall we're in a commodities bull market and everything is going to go up. PA is just looking like it's going to move up right away. PL not looking like it's ready to make a move quite yet.
<< <i><MJ, stocks were overpriced in 1999, but that didnt stop them from going up in 2000. We know what happened in 2001. We knew real estate was overpriced in 2005, but that didnt stop it from going higher in 2006. Copper is overpriced today, you wanna tempt history>
Nah, per usual you are covering and hedging all your prediction bets
I said copper was going lower in Jan. Cha-ching. I said copper was going lower in Apr and again in June. Double cha-ching. I also said I covered my copper shorts in July. In Aug I drew attention to the SLV chart on several occasions. Copper at $4 is grossly overpriced. Doesnt mean it cant bubble, but those looking for sustained gains will be disappointed.
I've been playing the YEN, as I mentioned you should be trading since May. Many, many more stocks---AMZN, PCLN, FFIV, CMG--- have outperformed PMs the last few months so why waste time with PMs when quite frankly there has been very little to "trade". It was a "buy and hold" play and that aint my game.
The salmon and steelies are in the river and deer season has opened. My favorite time of year.
Businesswise been busy talking with accountants, lawyers, and bankers on the formation of a hedge fund.
PC, no matter how you may draw the lines, there is a ton of resistance at $4.00. At 3.80 it makes a great risk/reward short trade--cover on a break of $4--lose 20c, or ride the drop back to 3--make 80c. I'll make 4-1 trades all day. I did cover 2/3rd of my BOM trade though. Hard not to take 10% in 3 days.
Those looking for dollar weakness must realize other currencies need to appreciate, many of which look awfully frothy.
My youngest with a 22 pound hen chinook.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
FYI- I've been in the YEN much much longer then May. Actually since it was at par. I only wish I would have pushed the trade harder. As for copper, that has been as hot of a long trade as any equities play you could have of been in. Just admit it, copper rocked
I sleep with a hedge fund manager from time to time. Don't worry, you are not my type
As for the dollar. I agree, it's very frothy
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I've mentioned many times that my #1 rule is "Never take big losses". Rule #2 is "Never underestimate a mania". Copper fits that statement, so I stay away, except when I can see the whites of its eyes, such as I did this past Tuesday. One shot, one kill. On to the next.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
To those that say the broader money supply aggregates haven't changed much over the past 2 yrs I have to nod my head in agreement. But then show them this chart which shows +2 TRILLION in foreign CB TBond holdings in that period.
FED custodial holdings of Treasuries for foreign central banks - 2nd chart
roadrunner
I'm going to post a response to your comments about the USD in the Nov thread, RR.