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$2000/$35 - discuss the Au/Ag ratio
Ciccio
Posts: 1,405 ✭
“At $1300 gold and $21 silver we have similar naysayers just like we did at $400/$6. And I suspect we'll have them at $2000/$35 as well.” (roadrunner)
If RR puts down some number, I am pretty sure he thought about those numbers.
What he wrote made me think about the Gold/Silver ratio, now approx 60:1 and he foresees 57:1.
I know very little about PM but I don’t think the ratio will go to 16:1, as someone says it should considering the historical ratios.
Neither I think it will go to 35:1. At least not in the next few years.
Most likely, it will stay in the 50/60 range and $2000/$35 sounds just right to me (maybe because I have heard these number too often!).
I am selling most of my silver because I want to buy more gold.
Can you convince me to hold my silver instead because it will outperform gold?
(You won’t, but I would like to hear your comments)
If RR puts down some number, I am pretty sure he thought about those numbers.
What he wrote made me think about the Gold/Silver ratio, now approx 60:1 and he foresees 57:1.
I know very little about PM but I don’t think the ratio will go to 16:1, as someone says it should considering the historical ratios.
Neither I think it will go to 35:1. At least not in the next few years.
Most likely, it will stay in the 50/60 range and $2000/$35 sounds just right to me (maybe because I have heard these number too often!).
I am selling most of my silver because I want to buy more gold.
Can you convince me to hold my silver instead because it will outperform gold?
(You won’t, but I would like to hear your comments)
0
Comments
I'm not counting on a 16-1 ratio either as that's based on when silver was a key monetary component around the world. But should silver come close to running out all bets are off. Before the 2008 deleveraging a GSR in the 45-60 range was the norm for several years.
roadrunner
The thing to remember about metals is the incidental buyer is not the market, a long line outside of the b&m doesn't equal a couple of key strokes from some big dog in a trading room that's setting up a COMEX delivery. The movement we see is not from us little guys but we sure stand to benefit.
<< <i>
I am selling most of my silver because I want to buy more gold.
ME TOO
Can you convince me to hold my silver instead because it will outperform gold? NO, I CAN NOT.
) >>
Text
AL
You know more physical PM's coming out of the woodwork?
I would think $1500 gold and $30 silver, people will be a sellin, no?
scott
You know more physical PM's coming out of the woodwork?
I would think $1500 gold and $30 silver, people will be a sellin, no?
PC seems to have a better pulse on the PM's than I do and he's been dead on since $1155 back in July. I like to spend more time watching the miners. But we're long overdue for a correction, esp. in silver. But that doesn't mean this move can't go on for a couple of more weeks. I get the feeling right now that gold and silver are into corrections where another 1-3% daily down leg is due. Whether that leads to a continued downward move remains to be seen. The majority of the senior gold miners seems to be acting like they want to toss in another down leg as well.
Cycling timing calls for an intermediate bottom in mid October which could be anything from $1225-$1300 as I see it. It's not about PM's coming out of the woodwork. It's more about the amount of paper contracts being made on the Comex and LBMA and what % are those are due for delivery. The paper is still a large obstacle to overcome. People will be selling all the way up to $1500 as new highs are made. I saw one guy's chart who expects a run to about $1350-$1400 ending in a week or so, followed by a couple of week pullback to around $1260, then another move towards $1500-$1700 by spring of next year. I see that as quite reasonable. The period from late Oct to spring 2011 "should" be quite the inflationary boom in tangibles/commodities. That next top at $1500-$1700 could easily be followed by a correction all the way back to $1300 that will destroy any latecomers. At least that's what I'm figuring on right now....but still play it week to week. I have to figure that anyone who saw $1500 as a goal, probably see a lot higher number eventually. And those people won't be selling anything but parts of their trading positions at those levels.
roadrunner
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>interesting look back... what is the GSR level these days? >>
Au/Ag ratio is 65.
Ciccio was right with the range but he was wrong with the spot prices...I know he sucks with investments!
<< <i>interesting look back... what is the GSR level these days? >>
When discussing its current level of 65 don't forget that it went to 31 first, much lower than the mid-40's where I thought the rally would wind up. But coincidentally,
when gold rallied into Sept 2011 with silver lagging from its April/May peak, that GSR topped out at around 45 (gold $1923, silver $44). The pricing in 2011 turned out
not that far from my $2000/$35 swag in Sept 2010. I also mentioned the possibility that the next top of $1500-$1700 could be followed by a move all the way back to
$1300. Unfortunately, I was closer to that than I ever dreamed possible. The extra overshoot to take gold from $1700-$1900 will probably result in the extra oomph that
takes a ways under $1300. The final $200-$250 move in gold to $1923 probably should never have occurred. It was panic-like speculation on the debt ceiling limit fiasco.
Looks like we might see $18 silver and sub-$1250 gold tonight (6/25/13). We can only wish for the $1300/$21 levels where this thread began from in Sept 2010.