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Relative POPularity of Topps vs. OPC
bobsbbcards
Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭
Hi,
I don't remember what I was looking for earlier today, but I bumped into the number of 1970 OPC baseball cards graded on the POP report. It struck me as being incredibly low compared with the number of Topps cards graded for the same year, so I put together the chart shown below.
For each year between 1965 and 1991, the chart shows the year, the total number of Topps cards graded by PSA, the total number of OPC cards graded by PSA, the ratio of those two numbers, the number of registered Topps sets (50% completion or better), the number of registered OPC sets (50% completion or better), and the ratio of those two numbers.
Some interesting things are apparent for this time period:
1) Top 3 Years for Topps POP: 1971, 1975, 1972
2) Top 3 Years for Topps Sets: 1975, 1971, 1968
3) Top 3 Years for OPC POP: 1971, 1972, 1978
4) Top 3 Years for OPC Sets: 1969, 1971, Tie between 1965, 1966, 1977, and 1978 w/ 2 each
5) Top 5 Years for Topps/OPC POP Ratio: 1967, 1985, 1969, 1970, 1974
The fact that the POP ratio for 1985 is so high can most likely be blamed on the number of McGwire rookies graded. He appears in the Topps set, but not the OPC set.
The scarcity of 1967, 1970, and 1974 OPC is once again apparent. Anyone who has tried collecting any of those three years knows how difficult they are.
I was surprised that there are so few OPC registry sets currently being worked on. The number of 100% OPC registry sets can be counted on one hand (if you have six fingers).
For the more modern sets, most of the cards graded are HOF rookies and star cards (i.e., very few commons). The POP ratio is much lower for those years since many master-set collectors will try and obtain the OPC card for the same player.
I don't remember what I was looking for earlier today, but I bumped into the number of 1970 OPC baseball cards graded on the POP report. It struck me as being incredibly low compared with the number of Topps cards graded for the same year, so I put together the chart shown below.
For each year between 1965 and 1991, the chart shows the year, the total number of Topps cards graded by PSA, the total number of OPC cards graded by PSA, the ratio of those two numbers, the number of registered Topps sets (50% completion or better), the number of registered OPC sets (50% completion or better), and the ratio of those two numbers.
Some interesting things are apparent for this time period:
1) Top 3 Years for Topps POP: 1971, 1975, 1972
2) Top 3 Years for Topps Sets: 1975, 1971, 1968
3) Top 3 Years for OPC POP: 1971, 1972, 1978
4) Top 3 Years for OPC Sets: 1969, 1971, Tie between 1965, 1966, 1977, and 1978 w/ 2 each
5) Top 5 Years for Topps/OPC POP Ratio: 1967, 1985, 1969, 1970, 1974
The fact that the POP ratio for 1985 is so high can most likely be blamed on the number of McGwire rookies graded. He appears in the Topps set, but not the OPC set.
The scarcity of 1967, 1970, and 1974 OPC is once again apparent. Anyone who has tried collecting any of those three years knows how difficult they are.
I was surprised that there are so few OPC registry sets currently being worked on. The number of 100% OPC registry sets can be counted on one hand (if you have six fingers).
For the more modern sets, most of the cards graded are HOF rookies and star cards (i.e., very few commons). The POP ratio is much lower for those years since many master-set collectors will try and obtain the OPC card for the same player.
0
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As you've noted -- I haven't seen (m)any try 1976 and earlier OPC sets in fully graded condition. There can be high demand for high-grade star cards, as player collectors have realized the true relatively scarcity of OPC as compared to Topps. But many of the sets I've seen of OPC tend to be raw and in binders, even those in high grade.
It would be interesting to also look at some of the series scarcity. For example, the 1974 OPC #283 Schmidt card is phenomenally difficult as compared to the 1974 Topps example -- despite not series. But the 1973 rookie card is not much harder in OPC than Topps, and, in fact, may often be easier to find in high grade.
I am surprised that 1981 and 1967 total population of graded examples in OPC are so low. What's the story behind 1967 OPC? There's only 659 total examples graded from the set -- but how rare can it be? There are fifteen distinct 1967 OPC Mickey Mantle cards currently sitting in Ebay inventory...
<< <i>What's the story behind 1967 OPC? There's only 659 total examples graded from the set -- but how rare can it be? >>
I wish I knew.
It seems like there's some sort of tipping point where the availability of cards is high enough that people start to want to try and build a set. Quantity demanded increases, price increases, sellers are attracted to the increase in prices, raw cards appear, submissions increase, quantity available for sale increases, cycle repeats. Obviously that's happened for all of the Topps sets, but also for 1971 OPC and, to a lesser extent, '72, '75, and '78 OPC.
I wasn't around for the initial registry shenanigans, but I would have to think that today's OPC totals aren't dissimilar from the early Topps numbers. If a couple whales suddenly decide to put together complete graded OPC sets, then we'd see some increase in availability (and price unfortunately). Where are you whales when we need you?
bobsbbcards SGC Registry Sets
The Pop report on the 78's has grown rapidly over the last few years. When I started the set a little over three years ago there were about 30 (out of only 242) cards that had never even been graded.
I'd like to know what happened in 74. Those seem like the toughest cards to find. The 74 Ted Simmons is the last card I need to finish the master set. After three years of searching I've only been able to find 4 raw copies, and none of those would grade higher then a 6. Super tough year.
81 is another tough year. I've thought about starting that set, but with the number of total graded so low, it would be a SOB to finish.
I'd guess that with time the total OPC pop's, for most years, will move closer to 5% of the Topps POP. I think we'd see this if the same analysis were done on the 'key cards'. ie Ryan rookie, Brett, Yount, Schmidt etc.
Now who has the last 15 cards I need for the 77 set??
CDsNuts, 1/9/15
<< <i>The Pop report on the 78's has grown rapidly over the last few years. When I started the set a little over three years ago there were about 30 (out of only 242) cards that had never even been graded. >>
I was shocked as I was going through this when I ran into your 100% 1978 OPC set with a GPA of 9.20. Amazing. I look forward to the day when you make the set available for viewing (and add some scans).
In terms of set completion, OPC lags even further behind Topps. Here are the top % completion numbers for OPC sets (along with registry name):
1965 - 93.29% Mets-71
1966 - 79.59% Mets-71
1967 - 34.18% Set of Opportunities
1968 - 87.76% Dragan Collection
1969 - 99.54% Tony's Big Red Oval 1969 Baseball Set (missing 198 Willie Smith)
1970 - 5.13% milkandcheese1
1971 - 100% Diamond Jims Card Challenge
1972 - 100% The Bakka Collection - 72 OPC
1973 - 58.64% milkandcheese1
1974 - 26.97% Some 1974 OPCs
1975 - 38.94% Chad's '75 Oh-Pea-Chi
1976 - 21.97% milkandcheese1
1977 - 94.32% Puddy's
1978 - 100% Puddy's 78's
1979 - 70.05% milkandcheese1
1980 - 55.08% briankritz (missed that one on the chart......bygones)
1981 - None
1982 - None
1983 - 9.85% BassPro77
1984 - 31.82% viveirosmm
1985 - None
1986 - None
1987 - None
1988 - 1.01% Member45452's 1988 O-Pee-Chee Set
1989 - None
1990 - 0.88% jbrownell
1991 - None
bobsbbcards SGC Registry Sets
Collecting:
Brett Favre Master Set
Favre Ticket Stubs
Favre TD Reciever Autos
Football HOF Player/etc. Auto Set
Football HOF Rc's
Since I've been following this set I've kept a close eye on the pop report. The first time I checked was on November 17th, 2008 and there were a total of 2,370 1975 OPCs graded. Today there are @ 3,780 which is an increase of nearly 60% in just less than two years. That indicates a lot of growth but as the OPs 45 to 1 ratio of 1975 Topps to OPC points out, there is still a huge lag in OPC submissions.
A couple interesting notes about the pop report for the 1975 OPCs is that in November of 2008 there were 42 PSA 10s (which equalled 1.77% of all the graded cards) and as of last month there were 58 PSA 10s which was equal to just 1.54%. The percentage of 9s has also decreased from 21.52% to 19.9% in the same timeframe. 8s and 8.5s, on the other hand, have both increased from 41.35% to 41.52% and 0.68% to 1.91% respectively. The increase in 8.5s can easily be attributed to the fact that PSA didn't always give 8.5s. Based on this info, my guess would be that much of the high quality raw stuff, especially for stars, has already been submitted.
One final note: 4 Sharp Corners has been the biggest lister of 1975 OPCs lately but even for a seller with as much inventory as they have it's pretty normal for them to only list 5-10 1975 OPCs at any given time which leads me to believe that they don't have a lot of high quality raw inventory sitting around.
bobsbbcards SGC Registry Sets
<< <i>Bob -- I'm still very thankful for that coordinated deal we made on one of those 1975 OPC sets a few years back! >>
Me too!!! To explain, we went in on a gorgeous complete '75 OPC set with Marc interested in the PSA 9 Schmidt from the set, and me interested in pretty much everything else. If I remember correctly, they had graded four or five cards (PSA 10 Brooks Robinson, PSA 8 Rose, PSA 9 Schmidt, PSA 9 #200 w/ Mantle, maybe one or two others).
Can you believe I've still never gone through the raw cards in the set? I'm just too darn busy being retired.
bobsbbcards SGC Registry Sets
I picked up some really nice '60s OPC cards from a local card shop about 10 years ago. I recently graded them out and got several 8s, 9s and one 10 ('68 Phoebus). The '65 and '66 8s and 9s sold for strong prices to the few guys aggressively building the sets. I remember the shop had a mostly complete set of 1969 OPC. Wish I had bought it even though it was mid-grade.
Not sure on the rarity of '74 wax. I've been under the impression that it was harder to get than most. I went a bit nuts a while back and decided to get an unopened (or at least full) OPC wax box for each year from 1971 through 1994. 1974 was the toughest--ended up buying one as part of a package deal which included a complete set and a PSA 5 Ryan (thanks Andrew!).
bobsbbcards SGC Registry Sets
Gentlemen, Gentlemen, Gentlemen...........lets get a hold on this !
Great analysis, as it was.....however.........................
1) Just because something is 99% complete (As is with my 1969 OPC BB set)
doesn't necessarily mean it was easy! I started that project 5-1/2 years
ago. And if you note, while I am proud of my nearly (7.9) 8 grade average,
that took a lot of persistence, not to mention plenty of DOUGH!
2) Those POP "numbers" don't really tell the story. Just because there are a
ton of cards graded doesn't indicate scarcity. Cards graded above NM or better
are few and far between on MANY, MANY Pre-72 Sets.
3) The "REAL NUMBERS" in my opinion to look at are the number of cards graded
in NM/MT and then compare those and the MINT cards to other sets. I think you would
be surprised if you took the total number of cards that have been graded and
figured out how many cards from each set graded MINT 9 and GEM MINT 10,
you would find some VERY interesting facts. Obviously, you should have to take
into account how many cards are in each set. The earlier sets have less than
300 per set, while many of the later ones run the same number as the TOPPS
counterpart.
I would love to see comparisons on these sets if somebody was so inclined to do so.
I am certainly not an expert on the OPC Baseball stuff, but, my personal ratings of
rarity of the sets goes something like this: (1965-1978)
1) 1967
2) 1965
3) 1966
4) 1971
5) 1969
6) 1974
7) 1970
8) 1976
9) 1977
10) 1968
11) 1975
12) 1973
13) 1972
14) 1978
Again, this is my PERSONAL rating. I am sure not everyone will agree with me. These ratings
are just based on my personal experiences of buying them and trying to find nice NM/MT or
better cards. There are MANY individual cards in some of the later sets that are EXTREMELY
tough to find centered, such as my #14 set-1978. The Pete Rose card is EXTREMELY rare in
high grade. I have a bunch of those and not a single card is centered better than 62/48 or so.
Tony
KalineFan
Here is what I think are the hardest opc baseball sets/singles to find in high grade...
1) 1967... Hands down #1, nothing even close to this set! SUPER HARD! Several cards hard to find without factory creases!
2) 1965...A popular set. More high grade stuff has come out over the last couple years but not even close to catching #1 -1967 set!
3) 1970... very hard to find mint centered copies. The all-star cards VERY DIFFICULT! Pop report shows just hard it is to find in high grade. ONLY 56 PSA 9'S!
4) 1971... Classic like the Topps. black borders and very difficult hi numbers! Hi numbers in OPC are much harder than the Topps 1971 hi numbers!
5) 1969... Great set with many star cards! Red backside borders show chipping easily!
6) 1974...Just a very difficult year to find and find in high grade. Very bad card stock!
7) 1966...Not a big fan of this set. More high grade stuff has come out over the last couple years on this set as well
8) 1976... I was lucky to get a good amount of mint singles from my Canada trip! Cant wait to get these back from PSA. Have another 60 PSA 9/10 quality cards heading in this week!
9) 1977...1 of my favorites. Centering issues on many cards and many miscuts on the backside
10) 1968...key to this set, find the shorties in full size (if there are any?) Wish PSA would grade them seeing they all seem to be short (dont have the list of #'s on hand)
11) 1975... Classic set like the Topps counterpart
12) 1973... this set drives me crazy with the cuts more than any! The cards just look bad both front and back
13) 1972... still lots of wax out there
14) 1978... certain singles are hard to find centered but overall a easy set to find and most singles can be found in high grade. Lots of wax available
I would put 1981 opc gray back version next on this list. Maybe even in front of the 1978's!
Email: OPCBASEBALL@YAHOO.COM
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1) 1967,seemed to be out very briefly,very limited run.Always thought it was because 1966 sold poorly(could buy packs in 1967 1 year later)
2)1971 High numbers.Came out Late July /August,Very limited availablity.CFL football that year was MUCH easier to find and may have pushed out production of BB early?.
3)1980 was hard to find in year of issue.Rumoured to be curtailed secondary to threatened strike at production plant and need to produce Star Wars cards prior to strike .
4)4th series 1970
1968 CFL and 1970 CFL were much harder to find than any of the above however.
Canadian collectors at the time(70's) such as O Ricker,A Pywowarczuk,A Savelli,K Johnston D Feltham could add to the story,but I don't know how active any are
Greg
(with my Al Kaline, of course!
even those got by as the couple I've seen are short. AND! They are SIGNIFICANTLY
short!
1974's are always tough as not only are they cut very rough, but lots of "TILT"
or "DIAMOND CUT". I sold a 1974 Ryan PSA 8 for well over $500 and there
were 4 under bidders at over $500 for that card! Shows you how strong they
are.
Tony
KalineFan
<< <i>Agree with tsalem on the 68 "SHORTIES". I have yet to see #2 Batting Leaders
(with my Al Kaline, of course!
even those got by as the couple I've seen are short. AND! They are SIGNIFICANTLY
short!
1974's are always tough as not only are they cut very rough, but lots of "TILT"
or "DIAMOND CUT". I sold a 1974 Ryan PSA 8 for well over $500 and there
were 4 under bidders at over $500 for that card! Shows you how strong they
are.
Tony
KalineFan >>
How tough are the 73s? It was far down the list of toughest to easiest but they seem to be OC much of the time.
<< <i>
How tough are the 73s? It was far down the list of toughest to easiest but they seem to be OC much of the time. >>
There are certainly centering issues on the 1973s -- but I've generally found them so relatively abundant that it is not that difficult to find well-centered examples given enough time. As it was issued in a single series, some of the high numbers [like the Schmidt rookie] are relatively easy to find in OPC as compared to the scarce Topps high numbers. There are a handful of very tough 1973s ... but it pales in comparison to some of the other 1970s OPC issues, particularly the 1974s and 1976s.
M