U.S. Gold $20's & St.'s...Undervalued?

MrOrganic

Looking to pick up some MS66 Saints PCGS for $2700

I feel there undervalued.

Right/wrong???

Thanx

ebaytrader

Bids are slightly under $2600 right now, so $2700 is fair for today's market.

Prices for generic $20 Libs & Saints are highly subject to marketing campaigns. If the gold price were to start flying that premium and that premium percentage will likely take a good hit. Conversely, if the gold price sags, they may hold up a little better than the bullion market. Buy 'em if you like 'em but don't hang you hat on the investment potential. Afterall, there are prolly 25k+ (15-18k in PCGS) Saints in '66 floating around.

dbcoin

I like MS62 ones for $1500 each much better. If you think gold is going higher, their premiums will rocket much higher than the MS66's

johnny9434

<< <i>I like MS62 ones for $1500 each much better. If you think gold is going higher, their premiums will rocket much higher than the MS66's >>



ill agree with that

roadrunner

If you can find nice ones for $2700 then they are probably a good deal imo esp. with CAC 66's fetching around $3600. Probably 80% of the 66's I see are no better than 65+. Hence they are really worth about the same as a CAC 65's assuming the coins aren't puttied or played with. "Mistake" 66's (ie 65.5 to 65.9) are a poor value imo while the solid ones that aren't yet CAC'd or plused are an excellent value (those that would be 66.0 to 66.3). Here's a case where C quality coins in the 66 grade are probably a good value. And while there may be 20,000-30,000 MS66 saints "out there," the actual amount relatively accessible to the market at any moment is very small. A demand for even 500-1,000 of them would send their prices moving up sharply. The market for generic gold is fairly illiquid. Coming off a bottom right now there is very little supply and also fairly low demand. And it's going to take a lot more than $2800 or $3000 per coin to get owners of MS66's to part with theirs when they paid $3400-$3600 last year.

Imo even a better value right now are the MS63 to MS64 $10 Libs and Indians which have been subject to promotions in the past. MS66 Saints are selling for a 25% premium over bullion gold value compared to MS63 $10's (2.25X vs 1.8Xmelt). Don't expect that to last a whole lot longer. If MS66 Saints get promoted it might only be for CAC'd specimens. Typically the marketers have targeted MS65 Saints in favor of the 66's...probably because of their easier availability. The price of the 2-1/2's to 10's in 63-64 is essentially 30% shy of their levels when gold was at $1225 last year.

roadrunner

ProofCollection

There's a good sale at APMEX, RR. If you were going to spend $1000-2000, what would you buy?
$20 Saints, PCGS:
MS65 2090
MS64 1710
MS63 1650
MS62 1600

$20Lib PCGS:
MS64 2335
MS63 1900
MS62 1680
MS61 1595

$10 Indian PCGS
MS64 1680
MS63 1140
MS62 985
MS61 895

$10 Lib PCGS
MS64 1705
MS63 1060
MS62 835
MS61 790

It would appear to me to be the MS64 $20 Saint, or MS62 $10 Lib, or MS63 $10 Indian... but that's just looking at the numbers. You understand the dynamics of the market a bit better RR.

Edited to add: MS66 Saints from APMEX are currently $2715, or $2705 for 5+. Can't see them before you buy though.

roadrunner

I've not dealt with Ampex and I wasn't aware they even tried to deal in generic slabbed gold. Heritage's prices on Friday were about $30-$60 better on most of those so I don't know about the "sale" Ampex is having. And if you want quantities that could make a difference too. Spotted coins can net you $50 less per coin plus some illiquidity (CAC coins tend to be exempt from that rule though).

I still love the $10 Indians and Libs in 63 and that's what I would buy. They're at the same levels as in January 2009 when gold was trying to get back above $900/oz. But the $20's are not unreasonable either at these levels. I've seen the $10's at nearly 50% higher levels in the past year so that's why I would focus on them. The MS63 $10 Indians have been promoted to $2200+ within the past 3 years. They're about half those levels right now. And if the price of bullion were to drop off sharply from here I think they're already beat down so much that they would fare better than the $20's. It's a win-win situation though since generic gold has not followed gold back up since the $1050 bottom in February. How often does that happen? The coin dealers and speculators are still in shock from the Dec-July down moves and probably scared to dump any money into these generics until they see $1275-$1300 taken out with momentum. But if that happens, the supply is so thin that prices will increase at 2X or even up to 3X the percentage increase in gold. I've seen the MS63 $10's as low as $650-675 in recent years.....but that was when gold was $600-650/oz.

roadrunner

ProofCollection

Can a regular person buy generic slabbed pre-1933 gold from Heritage? I see nothing on their website. I know we've discussed this before, but I can't remember the details - I never did get that guy to add me to his email distribution list. How does one buy from Heritage?

I have to agree with you though, the prices seem extra low considering gold is almost at an all time high. Gainesville and APMEX seem to have the inventory, but eBay seems to be a bit light. I loaded up last year and haven't thought about it or followed physical much since... I don't actively trade it.

goingbroke

Gold isn't a bubble, it's a beach ball--popping to the surface--while the bathwater goes down the drain.

robkool

<< <i>I like MS62 ones for $1500 each much better. If you think gold is going higher, their premiums will rocket much higher than the MS66's >>



I second that...

braddick

<< <i>Gold isn't a bubble, it's a beach ball--popping to the surface--while the bathwater goes down the drain. >>



Seriously, if you just made that up, POTD.

ranshdow

I still love the $10 Indians and Libs in 63 and that's what I would buy.

I decided to punt on your call, RR. We'll see how it goes.

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=90086&Lot_No=96049&type=bidnotice-confirm

roadrunner

I decided to punt on your call, RR. We'll see how it goes.

Doesn't seem like you had to pay more than $15-$25 extra for the "plus" which is good. But then again I know the CAC's currently bring little to no premium as well but that could change down the road. Don't know if I would have called that coin a plus but all that matters is that PCGS did.

I like MS62 ones for $1500 each much better. If you think gold is going higher, their premiums will rocket much higher than the MS66's

Maybe so. But with the MS64's currently at only 6.5% more than the 62's, that's what I would buy. That premium expanded to 25-30% during the last run up. Most 62's look like he11. The 64's are a near gem coin w/o much premium to a MS61/62. Far better value imo.

roadrunner

ProofCollection

Yes, $100 more to go from 62 to 64 is VERY worth it, IMO. Look for that gap to widen on any general increase in demand.