Just in time for the Philly show, I wonder what spot will be Friday. Will it be a good time to sell a little? Any thoughts I have quite a few ounces, I may sell and hope to buy back on a push back down. Mike
Gold rose to a record, rebounding from the biggest drop in two months, as investors and jewelers took advantage of cheaper bullion to increase their holdings. Silver extend gains to the highest price since 1980.
Prices jumped to an all-time high of $1,309.20 an ounce on the Comex in New York, touching a record for the eighth time in two weeks. Futures are up 19 percent this year, heading for the 10th straight annual gain.
“People are buying every dip in gold,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. “The trend isn’t going to change until interest rates rise.”
Gold futures for December delivery rose $8.80, or 0.7 percent, to $1,307.40 an ounce at 11:46 a.m. on the Comex. A close at that price would be the fifth straight gain. Earlier, the price shed $22.40, or 1.7 percent, the biggest intraday decline since July 27.
“Physical demand is still there,” said Afshin Nabavi, a senior vice president at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva. “We saw some Far-Eastern buyers, and some Indian interest.”
Prices of futures have climbed every week except one since the start of August, and “a correction was needed,” Nabavi said. “I don’t think the market is at all bearish.”
Gold rebounded after the dollar fell, erasing earlier gains, traders said. The greenback is “one step nearer” to a crisis as debt levels rise, according to Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank.
‘New Highs’
“The sell-off in the dollar has taken gold off its lows,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Lind- Waldock in Chicago. “From here, it’s going to be a momentum trade, and you’re going to see new buying take gold to new highs.”
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate between zero and 0.25 percent for an extended period to help the U.S. economy grow. The rate has been at that record-low level since December 2008.
Gold miners will return to hedging, according to 77 percent of participants in a survey at the London Bullion Market Association conference in Berlin today. Some companies such as AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. have reduced or eliminated hedges, betting that prices will continue to climb.
Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter, said he may begin holding mining stocks after Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s biggest producer, reduced the cost of extracting the metal to $358 an ounce.
<< <i> Will it be a good time to sell a little? . Mike >>
Can you think of one compelling argument why you should sell ? >>
I'd say to sell it if you thought the economy was picking up steam and that interest rates were set to go higher and the world economy was on the brink of expansion. You should purchase stock indexes and make your money faster elsewhere.
But alas, me thinks that's not the case.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
<< <i>I was wondering if there will be some retracement and to be able to buy it back under current levels. >>
The premiums for physical are too large to make such a move worth the risk right now. There is no serious retracement coming. We will see $1400 gold before we see $1200.
Gold Today was phenomenal for gold. In the space of a few hours, gold performed a very much need key retracement which now allows gold to continue higher. Gold's definitive breakout over 1303 paves the way for higher highs. 1334-1340 should be the next significant resistance level. What's really nice is that I can now proceed with confidence now that the retracement is out of the way, as downside should be minimal until the next target is reached. As I noted, the buying energy that came in on the retracement shows how much buying interest is out there.
Support for tonight/Wed is at 1287.5, 1299.6 and resistance is at 1322.2, 1334.3, and 1369.
So my forecast for Wednesday is sidways until morning or mid-day Wed as gold needs to consolidate the last move up. I expect some wandering between 1300 and 1312. Timing models call for a top on Friday, so I think between now and Friday we'll see 1334-1340. I think there's a slight chance gold could go wild and push higher, but reasonably, we're looking at another $25-30 upside for gold, at which point we'll probably need to see a retracement and caution will be in order again.
As far as my personal trading, I played this very well, and maybe got a little lucky. My stops were about $6 below the 1276 low from last night, so I did not get stopped out of any positions and even added to get to an overloaded position around 1290. I sold "extra" positions at 1303 and 1310 just to capture profits. Tonight I'll be looking to re-enter those positions around 1303. I still have my core positions.
Silver silver broke out after performing a retracement as well, and it is ready for more upside. I think silver will need to move sideways for at least a day or so here, but it wouldn't surprise me to see 22.50 by Friday. Silver is overdue for a much bigger correction, but we'll see 22.50 first I think...
Stocks SP500 seems to be doing a triangle consolidation. I think stocks will move sideways for a few more days. Gold stocks keep chugging along, reflecting the price moves in gold and silver.
XAU saw a bullish engulfing candle today. Gold stocks could be ready to really move.
USD USD is getting clobbered. Probably a near-term low for DX will be 78.0, possibly to coincide with 22.50 silver and 1335 gold.
Thanks for the suggestions, I will hold it, plus with my timing If I sold it I probably end up having to buy it back for a premium over spot if it goes up any more.
Linked the above for the chart on overall risk in various mining jurisdictions. I was very surprised to see California ranked in the bottom 5 down with Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Zimbabwe. At least they beat somebody. This is the mining company's view of things, not an outside independent analyst. Of major gold mining nations Chile seems ranked the highest with Alaska, Canada and Mexico. Colorado and some of the other western states didn't fare too well. The author's point: don't put all your mining eggs in one geo-political basket.
From old man Russell:
Gold -- Gold is technically overbought, but from all quarters I hear the following opinion: "Too much talk and attention is being directed towards gold. When this much attention is directed to any market item, you're looking at a top." So that's the prevailing and "popular wisdom." It seems to me that too many in the business and in the media are singing that same tune -- "Gold is ready to correct, it's overbought."
The Russell take: When everybody sees the same thing, I discount it. All the gold publicity is simply directing the public's attention to what's happening to gold. We are not near a top. All the top-callers are going to "eat their warnings." In other words, I'm taking a contrary stance towards current "popular warnings" about gold. When everybody warns about an item, you can forget the warnings. The situation will work in reverse on those warning about a top in gold. Gold is going to frustrate them.
Couldn't those tight bands imply a downward move to come...sort of a slow broadening top that has brought the bands towards zero? Gold is still holding that same topping pattern all the way back to May. Doesn't confirm anything, just that's it still out there and agrees with the lowering volatility you mention. Given enough time to play out it will probably do so but the pattern has been in force now for 14 trading days...with no signs of stopping yet.
<< <i>Couldn't those tight bands imply a downward move to come...sort of a slow broadening top that has brought the bands towards zero? Gold is still holding that same topping pattern all the way back to May. Doesn't confirm anything, just that's it still out there and agrees with the lowering volatility you mention. Given enough time to play out it will probably do so but the pattern has been in force now for 14 trading days...with no signs of stopping yet. >>
It doesn't mean a whole lot. All it really could mean is that volatilitity is likely to increase... but that's pretty obvious, as volitility probably can't get much lower.
As expected, today was purely sideways in a nice tight range. But the short term charts are energized and ready to go again. Look for another advance tonight or Thursday. Support is at 1306.7, resistance is at 1310.9, 1315.2, 1319.4, and 1327.9.
I'm very concerned about a sharp retracement once we hit the 1330-1344 zone. Not only are we at the top of the channel I posted a day or two ago (not that we're necessarily going to be constrained by that channel going forward - we can't if we're in a parabolic move), but it won't be as devastating as some are predicting on here. A 38.2% retracement of the entire move up from 1155.6 would only take us back down to 1269.5, if we make it to 1340. This makes a lot of sense, as ~1260-1270 is the previous high, so to come down and re-test this breakout level would be MEGA-BULLISH. This is how I'm going to play the next few weeks. This sharp retracement will fuel skepticism about the gold bubble being ready to pop, will get bulls to question their stance, and prime the pump for another strong leg up to 1400+.
Stocks have another day or two of sideways to slightly upward action.
Silver will probably trade between 21.73 and its upward resistance levels at 22.10 and 22.27 tonight/Thursday.
This will be my last entry for this thread, I'll start a new thread for Oct later tonight.
I wasn't really expecting today's retracement, but I was able to survive it without tripping any stops. It should have been expected though, as gold needs to take a break every now and then. A year ago I would have panicked and sold some at a loss. So not-losing anything today was a victory for me. In fact, in my other accounts I was able to load up on GLD and SLV calls near the bottom.
Today's move was a 38.2% retracement of the move up from 1276.2. Today's action also created some pivot targets near 1227.
Comments
I saw the drop in London and said
Woke up a couple of hours later... saw the bounce... saw your post... and thought 'P-C is correct again'... congrats.
We live in interesting times.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
Prices jumped to an all-time high of $1,309.20 an ounce on the Comex in New York, touching a record for the eighth time in two weeks. Futures are up 19 percent this year, heading for the 10th straight annual gain.
“People are buying every dip in gold,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. “The trend isn’t going to change until interest rates rise.”
Gold futures for December delivery rose $8.80, or 0.7 percent, to $1,307.40 an ounce at 11:46 a.m. on the Comex. A close at that price would be the fifth straight gain. Earlier, the price shed $22.40, or 1.7 percent, the biggest intraday decline since July 27.
“Physical demand is still there,” said Afshin Nabavi, a senior vice president at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva. “We saw some Far-Eastern buyers, and some Indian interest.”
Prices of futures have climbed every week except one since the start of August, and “a correction was needed,” Nabavi said. “I don’t think the market is at all bearish.”
Gold rebounded after the dollar fell, erasing earlier gains, traders said. The greenback is “one step nearer” to a crisis as debt levels rise, according to Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank.
‘New Highs’
“The sell-off in the dollar has taken gold off its lows,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Lind- Waldock in Chicago. “From here, it’s going to be a momentum trade, and you’re going to see new buying take gold to new highs.”
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate between zero and 0.25 percent for an extended period to help the U.S. economy grow. The rate has been at that record-low level since December 2008.
Gold miners will return to hedging, according to 77 percent of participants in a survey at the London Bullion Market Association conference in Berlin today. Some companies such as AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. have reduced or eliminated hedges, betting that prices will continue to climb.
Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter, said he may begin holding mining stocks after Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s biggest producer, reduced the cost of extracting the metal to $358 an ounce.
<< <i> Will it be a good time to sell a little? . Mike >>
Can you think of one compelling argument why you should sell ?
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
<< <i>
<< <i> Will it be a good time to sell a little? . Mike >>
Can you think of one compelling argument why you should sell ? >>
I'd say to sell it if you thought the economy was picking up steam and that interest rates were set to go higher and the world economy was on the brink of expansion. You should purchase stock indexes and make your money faster elsewhere.
But alas, me thinks that's not the case.
<< <i>I was wondering if there will be some retracement and to be able to buy it back under current levels. >>
The premiums for physical are too large to make such a move worth the risk right now. There is no serious retracement coming. We will see $1400 gold before we see $1200.
Today was phenomenal for gold. In the space of a few hours, gold performed a very much need key retracement which now allows gold to continue higher. Gold's definitive breakout over 1303 paves the way for higher highs. 1334-1340 should be the next significant resistance level. What's really nice is that I can now proceed with confidence now that the retracement is out of the way, as downside should be minimal until the next target is reached. As I noted, the buying energy that came in on the retracement shows how much buying interest is out there.
Support for tonight/Wed is at 1287.5, 1299.6 and resistance is at 1322.2, 1334.3, and 1369.
So my forecast for Wednesday is sidways until morning or mid-day Wed as gold needs to consolidate the last move up. I expect some wandering between 1300 and 1312. Timing models call for a top on Friday, so I think between now and Friday we'll see 1334-1340. I think there's a slight chance gold could go wild and push higher, but reasonably, we're looking at another $25-30 upside for gold, at which point we'll probably need to see a retracement and caution will be in order again.
As far as my personal trading, I played this very well, and maybe got a little lucky. My stops were about $6 below the 1276 low from last night, so I did not get stopped out of any positions and even added to get to an overloaded position around 1290. I sold "extra" positions at 1303 and 1310 just to capture profits. Tonight I'll be looking to re-enter those positions around 1303. I still have my core positions.
Silver
silver broke out after performing a retracement as well, and it is ready for more upside. I think silver will need to move sideways for at least a day or so here, but it wouldn't surprise me to see 22.50 by Friday. Silver is overdue for a much bigger correction, but we'll see 22.50 first I think...
Stocks
SP500 seems to be doing a triangle consolidation. I think stocks will move sideways for a few more days. Gold stocks keep chugging along, reflecting the price moves in gold and silver.
XAU saw a bullish engulfing candle today. Gold stocks could be ready to really move.
USD
USD is getting clobbered. Probably a near-term low for DX will be 78.0, possibly to coincide with 22.50 silver and 1335 gold.
Daily gold chart, a thing of beauty:
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
Linked the above for the chart on overall risk in various mining jurisdictions. I was very surprised to see California ranked in the bottom 5 down with Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Zimbabwe. At least they beat somebody. This is the mining company's view of things, not an outside independent analyst. Of major gold mining nations Chile seems ranked the highest with Alaska, Canada and Mexico. Colorado and some of the other western states didn't fare too well. The author's point: don't put all your mining eggs in one geo-political basket.
From old man Russell:
Gold -- Gold is technically overbought, but from all quarters I hear the following opinion: "Too much talk and attention is being directed towards gold. When this much attention is directed to any market item, you're looking at a top." So that's the prevailing and "popular wisdom." It seems to me that too many in the business and in the media are singing that same tune -- "Gold is ready to correct, it's overbought."
The Russell take: When everybody sees the same thing, I discount it. All the gold publicity is simply directing the public's attention to what's happening to gold. We are not near a top. All the top-callers are going to "eat their warnings." In other words, I'm taking a contrary stance towards current "popular warnings" about gold. When everybody warns about an item, you can forget the warnings. The situation will work in reverse on those warning about a top in gold. Gold is going to frustrate them.
roadrunner
roadrunner
<< <i>Couldn't those tight bands imply a downward move to come...sort of a slow broadening top that has brought the bands towards zero? Gold is still holding that same topping pattern all the way back to May. Doesn't confirm anything, just that's it still out there and agrees with the lowering volatility you mention. Given enough time to play out it will probably do so but the pattern has been in force now for 14 trading days...with no signs of stopping yet. >>
It doesn't mean a whole lot. All it really could mean is that volatilitity is likely to increase... but that's pretty obvious, as volitility probably can't get much lower.
I'm very concerned about a sharp retracement once we hit the 1330-1344 zone. Not only are we at the top of the channel I posted a day or two ago (not that we're necessarily going to be constrained by that channel going forward - we can't if we're in a parabolic move), but it won't be as devastating as some are predicting on here. A 38.2% retracement of the entire move up from 1155.6 would only take us back down to 1269.5, if we make it to 1340. This makes a lot of sense, as ~1260-1270 is the previous high, so to come down and re-test this breakout level would be MEGA-BULLISH. This is how I'm going to play the next few weeks. This sharp retracement will fuel skepticism about the gold bubble being ready to pop, will get bulls to question their stance, and prime the pump for another strong leg up to 1400+.
Stocks have another day or two of sideways to slightly upward action.
Silver will probably trade between 21.73 and its upward resistance levels at 22.10 and 22.27 tonight/Thursday.
I wasn't really expecting today's retracement, but I was able to survive it without tripping any stops. It should have been expected though, as gold needs to take a break every now and then. A year ago I would have panicked and sold some at a loss. So not-losing anything today was a victory for me. In fact, in my other accounts I was able to load up on GLD and SLV calls near the bottom.
Today's move was a 38.2% retracement of the move up from 1276.2. Today's action also created some pivot targets near 1227.