Headline: Are We Headed for a Lost Economic Decade?
renman95
Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
That is Yahoo! Finance's headline this morning. My first reaction was...what, just one lost decade? How about two?
We have 76 million boomers hitting the trough for the next 20 years. With them out of the work force some estimates pull the GDP down 1-2% points. They will sell what they have left in stocks during that period. They will drain health care (unless the death panels get activated.
) Housing is in the can with some still predicting another 20% drop from here. Ever increasing national debt that rises nearly $100,000 per second. Rates near zero for the saver, morts in the 4 percentile and the stock market can't get out of its own way. The dollar is virtually junked. And handcuffed policies for small business.
What's the secret to recovery? Time. There's a lot to churn through.
I feel bad for J6P that has no clue as to what is about to happen.
R95
We have 76 million boomers hitting the trough for the next 20 years. With them out of the work force some estimates pull the GDP down 1-2% points. They will sell what they have left in stocks during that period. They will drain health care (unless the death panels get activated.
) Housing is in the can with some still predicting another 20% drop from here. Ever increasing national debt that rises nearly $100,000 per second. Rates near zero for the saver, morts in the 4 percentile and the stock market can't get out of its own way. The dollar is virtually junked. And handcuffed policies for small business.What's the secret to recovery? Time. There's a lot to churn through.
I feel bad for J6P that has no clue as to what is about to happen.
R95
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Comments
<< <i>I see no end to the loss's with out some responsible policy makers. >>
Those guys are drinking way too much strong delusion in order for that to happen.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
- Alexis De Tocqueville, Democracy in America, 1835.
Edited to add:
Japan is in there second strait lost economic decade. We wouldn't be there if we had learned from their mistakes.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>"The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."
- Alexis De Tocqueville, Democracy in America, 1835. >>
Brilliant, and as I have discovered that after all this technology and instant education, the average American today is no smarter than average American back in 1835. Hence, the need for a representative democracy. The Founders were brilliant and understood human emotions perfectly.
<< <i>
<< <i>"The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."
- Alexis De Tocqueville, Democracy in America, 1835. >>
Brilliant, and as I have discovered that after all this technology and instant education, the average American today is no smarter than average American back in 1835. Hence, the need for a representative democracy. The Founders were brilliant and understood human emotions perfectly. >>
Our founders' greatest insight was their warning of power, greed and corruption. Much of what they created to prevent our demise has been dismantled and overturned by those it was intended to keep in check. We are now at our last line of defense - the separation of power among the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government. That separation in the last decade has slowly eroded to the point where the executive branch now declares war, the judical branch feeds the other two with legalized unlimited corporate campaign contributions, and the legislative branch just shows up for a government paycheck and lobbyist donations.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Me (J6P) doesn't have the power, altho' I do have limited knowledge thanks to spending time with more than 1 (one) TV source and one (1) Newspaper source.
There are a lot of things that alot of people will lose if this turns out exactly as Paul Krugman warned in a forecast when the 1st Obama stimulus was passed, just as GWBush and Co. were passing the baton. Krugman said it wasn't enough. And that not going far enough in Jan 2008 would very possibly have the consequence of years of stagnation.
Still room to play the metals, but there's no guarantee that gold can't go south in the next 6-12 months.
as well as just confused and uncertain. The fact is, no one knows
for sure. I believe that we are in for a period of hard times at least
for the next few years. Slow recovery as well as a continuing lose of
quality jobs, loss of benefits and lose of confidence. Things are never
as bad as we fear, nor are they as good as we may hope.
Diversification may be a technique, however, Government bonds are over
priced at the moment, stocks seem flaky,real estate seems headed down
for a while, PMs are uncertain if you have to sell at the wrong time . As for
cash ,it is important to have some, but it is losing 3% a year and is just pieces
of paper backed by hot air and empty promises .Still, money is still useful.
World war is usually a means of restoring prosperity and full employment, however,
in any shooting war, there are winners and losers. In the next war, perhaps the entire
world will be losers.
Camelot
<< <i>That is Yahoo! Finance's headline this morning. My first reaction was...what, just one lost decade? How about two?
We have 76 million boomers hitting the trough for the next 20 years. With them out of the work force some estimates pull the GDP down 1-2% points. They will sell what they have left in stocks during that period. They will drain health care (unless the death panels get activated.
What's the secret to recovery? Time. There's a lot to churn through.
I feel bad for J6P that has no clue as to what is about to happen.
R95 >>
Don't assume that the Boomers will sell all their stock in retirement, with cd's and bonds paying next to nothing, many will need to keep at least portions of their stock portfolio's with the expectation ( and maybe just an expectation) that it will bring a better return over time.
<< <i>"The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."
- Alexis De Tocqueville, Democracy in America, 1835.
Edited to add:
Japan is in there second strait lost economic decade. We wouldn't be there if we had learned from their mistakes. >>
In the 80's and 90's Japan lead the world in family savings, under some economic models that should be a precursor to a healthy economy, I'm not sure what happened there.
<< <i>Demographics...an aging population was part of their mix. We are entering that now. >>
My assumption about boomers keeping at least part of their stock portfolio is based on the subject of this thread. Unless you were in PM's or abroad(
Not only a lost decade, but a LOSS decade as well for the DOW. Considering that the dollar index was at around 100 in early 1999, that's a 17% loss through today. That would adjust today's DOW down to 8,476 in constant dollar terms. Though if one uses this year's peak of 11,700, that's exactly a 17% increase over March 1999....break even point. 11 lost years.
roadrunner