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Posnanski on Defense
markj111
Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2010/08/11/defensive-numbers/
Intro:
Today, we’re going to talk at some length with John Dewan, owner of “Baseball Info Solutions,” and a man who has gone to greater lengths than just about anybody in America to study baseball defense. But before we get to John and some talk that is likely to start arguments, let me babble a little bit about my own thoughts about advanced defensive numbers.
Start with the obvious: For more than 100 years, the only true defensive measures anyone cared about involved “errors.” According to Alan Schwarz’s essential book “The Numbers Game” — great reading — the errors concept goes back, at least, to 1863. That year, a box score in the Sunday Mercury had a section called “Catches Missed.” This made some sense in 1863, when the game was entirely built around hitting and defense. Pitchers truly “pitched” the ball underhand, horseshoes style, to a hitters liking, much like a pitcher in kickball (“Bouncy or smooth?”). Catching the ball on the fly or on one bounce (only on the fly after 1864) or tagging a runner or the base were the only ways to get a hitter out, and so as a fan you wanted to know not only how many defensive plays were made but also how many were not.
An excerpt from later in the article:
“Derek Jeter became the poster child for defensive statistics,” Dewan says. You already know this story. Derek Jeter looks like a good defender … there is little doubt about this. He looks athletic. he looks smooth, he makes that cool-looking jump throw from the hole, he has made a few memorable defensive plays that stand out in the mind. The sparse defensive statistics we had showed that he was always below league average in range factor. But range factor wasn’t compelling enough for most fans or writers or baseball people. He looked good.
Then, advanced defensive numbers came along .. and one after another they showed something extraordinary. It’s not that the numbers concluded that Derek Jeter was a touch overrated, that he was not quite great defensively. No. The numbers showed that he was a terrible defensive shortstop, maybe the worst in baseball, one of the worst in the HISTORY of baseball. Dewan’s numbers showed, for example, that in 2005 (when Jeter won his second Gold Glove) he was actually MINUS-THIRTY-FOUR on defense. By scrutinizing every play, John and his staff found that Jeter did not make plays on 18 balls to his right and 25 balls on his left, plays that average shortstops would have made (he was good that year, however, on balls hit in the air). He scored only slightly better in 2006 (another Gold Glove year) and was back to the same dreadful scoring in 2007.
Intro:
Today, we’re going to talk at some length with John Dewan, owner of “Baseball Info Solutions,” and a man who has gone to greater lengths than just about anybody in America to study baseball defense. But before we get to John and some talk that is likely to start arguments, let me babble a little bit about my own thoughts about advanced defensive numbers.
Start with the obvious: For more than 100 years, the only true defensive measures anyone cared about involved “errors.” According to Alan Schwarz’s essential book “The Numbers Game” — great reading — the errors concept goes back, at least, to 1863. That year, a box score in the Sunday Mercury had a section called “Catches Missed.” This made some sense in 1863, when the game was entirely built around hitting and defense. Pitchers truly “pitched” the ball underhand, horseshoes style, to a hitters liking, much like a pitcher in kickball (“Bouncy or smooth?”). Catching the ball on the fly or on one bounce (only on the fly after 1864) or tagging a runner or the base were the only ways to get a hitter out, and so as a fan you wanted to know not only how many defensive plays were made but also how many were not.
An excerpt from later in the article:
“Derek Jeter became the poster child for defensive statistics,” Dewan says. You already know this story. Derek Jeter looks like a good defender … there is little doubt about this. He looks athletic. he looks smooth, he makes that cool-looking jump throw from the hole, he has made a few memorable defensive plays that stand out in the mind. The sparse defensive statistics we had showed that he was always below league average in range factor. But range factor wasn’t compelling enough for most fans or writers or baseball people. He looked good.
Then, advanced defensive numbers came along .. and one after another they showed something extraordinary. It’s not that the numbers concluded that Derek Jeter was a touch overrated, that he was not quite great defensively. No. The numbers showed that he was a terrible defensive shortstop, maybe the worst in baseball, one of the worst in the HISTORY of baseball. Dewan’s numbers showed, for example, that in 2005 (when Jeter won his second Gold Glove) he was actually MINUS-THIRTY-FOUR on defense. By scrutinizing every play, John and his staff found that Jeter did not make plays on 18 balls to his right and 25 balls on his left, plays that average shortstops would have made (he was good that year, however, on balls hit in the air). He scored only slightly better in 2006 (another Gold Glove year) and was back to the same dreadful scoring in 2007.
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Comments
<< <i>in 2005 (when Jeter won his second Gold Glove) he was actually MINUS-THIRTY-FOUR on defense. By scrutinizing every play, John and his staff found that Jeter did not make plays on 18 balls to his right and 25 balls on his left, plays that average shortstops would have made (he was good that year, however, on balls hit in the air). He scored only slightly better in 2006 (another Gold Glove year) and was back to the same dreadful scoring in 2007. >>
How much does that pay?
The Jeter example seems like a case where his comparatively poor defense might only end up costing the Yanks 5-6 extra runs per year, where his bat might be +20 runs on the excellent defensive short stops.