<No matter how much something is wanted, there becomes a price at which it is no longer wanted. You know this MJ, you know how it works. Believe me I would love to see the dollar at 50 and copper at 9 and oil at 200. The potential for MASSIVE profits would then be insane. But it aint gonna happen>
I love you Dave but I think you are a homer and it's holding you back. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i> but unless you say why it means nothing to me
Then it shall be. Sorry. The signs are there. Not trying to sound like an arrogant arse, its just the way it is.
Ok, i'll give a hint. An apple a day..... Every dark cloud has a SLV lining... Does the $INDU have dandruff? >>
If you want to post riddles and puzzles, fine. But don't think you're being helpful or informative. Aside from several possible world events you could be speculating about, as we've discussed reading charts is an art, not a science, and not everyone reads them the same way.
Support for gold is at 1224.7, 1229.2, and resistance at 1234.3, 1238.8, 1243.9.
This is what I was working on posting even before your last post for the SP500. The formation projects to about SP500 @ 1260 if the pattern completes.
Ok, i'll give a hint. An apple a day..... Every dark cloud has a SLV lining... Does the $INDU have dandruff? >>
Apple not leading the equities market
Silver dark cloud cover candlestick formation
Dow with head and shoulders
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i> but unless you say why it means nothing to me
Then it shall be. Sorry. The signs are there. Not trying to sound like an arrogant arse, its just the way it is.
Ok, i'll give a hint. An apple a day..... Every dark cloud has a SLV lining... Does the $INDU have dandruff? >>
If you want to post riddles and puzzles, fine. But don't think you're being helpful or informative. Aside from several possible world events you could be speculating about, as we've discussed reading charts is an art, not a science, and not everyone reads them the same way.
Support for gold is at 1224.7, 1229.2, and resistance at 1234.3, 1238.8, 1243.9.
This is what I was working on posting even before your last post for the SP500. The formation projects to about SP500 @ 1260 if the pattern completes.
>>
Well, heres another saying im sure you'll have contention with..... Give a man a fish, or teach a man to fish. What do you want to do? Did your college professor give you the answers before each test? You think im making a prediction based on some upcoming world event. I have no freaking idea whats gonna happen in the global political scene, but I do have a pretty darned good idea whats gonna happen with the stock market. You are trading the stock market, so stop looking for reasons, just trade what you see. You are very narrowly focused on a few charts, but markets are baskets of charts. Look at them all.
we've discussed reading charts is an art, not a science, and not everyone reads them the same way.
This is exactly why I make money trading stocks and most people dont. They couldnt read a chart if it was written by Dr. Suess.
Pretty good MJ. Im referring specifically to the SLV chart though.
<Pretty good MJ. Im referring specifically to the SLV chart though>
I know
FYI- America is most beautiful...............MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Well, heres another saying im sure you'll have contention with..... Give a man a fish, or teach a man to fish. What do you want to do? Did your college professor give you the answers before each test? You think im making a prediction based on some upcoming world event. I have no freaking idea whats gonna happen in the global political scene, but I do have a pretty darned good idea whats gonna happen with the stock market. You are trading the stock market, so stop looking for reasons, just trade what you see. You are very narrowly focused on a few charts, but markets are baskets of charts. Look at them all. >>
My point exactly. Your lines, "I am sensing a rather dramatic move to occur in all asset classes within the next few weeks. Maybe starting in the next 48 hours." does nothing to "teach a man to fish." Part of why I like this forum is that I like to see what other people are seeing. I don't know if you're predicting a world calamity, maybe you've read or you know something that's happening tomorrow that I'm not aware of, etc. You look at one set of charts, I look at another. (And BTW, you have no idea which charts I look at). We all have our favorites, and they don't always agree. Part of the value of this forum is that others like RR posts what they see, and when you post your observations I can get another point of view which is what I value the most. With a post like yours I'm anxious to see the signs and signals you're basing that on so I can evaluate and draw my own conclusions, rather than liquidating my accounts because of your prediction without explanation.
I hope this doesn't come off as negative or an attack - it's not meant to be - it's just that you've made some bold claims, and I see some of the signs myself, and a little more info would be helpful to adjust my confidence level in what I already see and feel.
COT: Banks added 16,672 short gold futures contracts last week and sold off 1900 longs as gold moved from the $1190's up towards $1230. Short to long ratio is up to 2.45. Seems to imply that they are going to keep piling on the shorts to end this rally. And it's pretty safe to assume they didn't sell any of those new shorts the past 3 days. Banks also added 4,000 short dollar contracts last week (and essentially nothing long) which at least hints that they don't thing this dollar move is more than a rebound. Silver pretty much no change.
GSR broke into the 68's on silver's weakness and penetrated beyond the upper 20 day Bollinger Band. It appears that this short term move up is most likely over. Miners, stocks, etc. all moved down sharply today then recovered somewhat...on lower volume. May not be a whole lot more left to this downtrend. But charts can be painted. I'm still going to wait to see how things react to Tuesday's bond auction and upcoming gold/silver futures expiration on 8-27. I read that 200 BILL in bonds are going off next week. Now if every household would buy about $2,000 worth that would about cover it.
Gold is still looking great, especially in the longer terms. The weekly chart below looks really good to me and I've got it below. That's a real nice bullish pattern, and I'm expecting more green weekly candles in the near term.
I checked back over the past 3 yrs and FOUR weekly green candles has been recorded a few times, but not 5X. 5 weekly greens is a fairly rare occurence for gold in this past decade. It happened a couple of times in the 2006-2007 run up. So right now I wouldn't be counting on more than at most 1 additional greenie. I'd actually be surprised if next week doesn't provide a red candle.
The below article shows some interesting junction points in gold. It's now retraced about a 61% FIB of the $1156 down move while also now touching the 20 month uptrend line from November 2008. It had briefly fallen below that line on the way to $1156. As Radomski says, this would be a convenient time for a pull back based on RSI and Stoch as well. The last 2 previous uptrends ended about at this same point. Again, I'll toss in the additional resistances of bond/expiration next week as well as the COT tacking on 16,000 shorts last week, plus untold more during this latest week. What are the odds of breaking back above the 20 month trend line on the first try? Retesting the shorter 15 month uptrend line would make more sense.
PC, my point is that I want people to look for the answers, rather than giving them. I'll show you--not singling you out--, the lake and fishing rod, but will not say where to cast. I believe people learn much more when they discover something for themselves. A "Eureka" moment is priceless. I am sure there are at least 100 people who read this thread yet only 3 or 4 add any substantial comment. Where are the others? Why should we, or perhaps I, show them how to fish?
There is much more to chart reading than looking at a bunch of squiggly lines. That knowledge cannot be shown in an internet chat room. It can(should) take decades to decipher the emotions and psychology of markets.
The markets--equities and PMs, had better get their act together soon. Momo is waning quickly. I think if one looks at a basket of global indices--markets, commodities, bonds, currencies--then the clues should be quite apparent. Unfortunately I cannot go into greater detail in a public forum at this time.
I mentioned the SLV chart over a weak ago and my thoughts of a breakout, up or down. I know you are extremely bullish on gold, but you should also see the potential for a breakdown in silver. You think gold will go higher if silver cracks, or is it impossible for silver to tank? You must also consider that downtrends begin when lower highs are made. Are you sure gold there is no potential that gold is making a lower high?
Money management is risk management. If one does not know how to manage risk, then he cannot manage money.
I am sure there are at least 100 people who read this thread yet only 3 or 4 add any substantial comment. Where are the others?
I certainly add comment...just don't know if I would be included in the 3 or 4 that add "substance."
The markets--equities and PMs, had better get their act together soon. Momo is waning quickly. I think if one looks at a basket of global indices--markets, commodities, bonds, currencies--then the clues should be quite apparent. Unfortunately I cannot go into greater detail in a public forum at this time.
I'm certainly don't have decades of experience (ie a couple of years) but I can comment on what I see at the moment. And it's not that good. I flipped through a hundred or so misc charts to get a flavor of today's trends and I don't see much positive. Most major foreign SM indicies look to be continuing another leg down. The liquidity index of Fxe/fxy still trending down with NZ$/yen just hanging steady after a long downtrend. GSR staying over 68 after bouncing off its upper BB....with designs still on 70. Most commodities and their producers (PM's, copper, oil, steel, gas, base metals, etc.) not looking good. I won't include the Ags in there because they are still hanging tough at high levels with lowering volume and no obvious cracks to be seen yet. I guess people still have to eat, all 7 BILLION of them.
While one could say that volumes have been decreasing the last few days is a bullish sign on this commodities pullback, I'm concerned that increasing volume is starting to show up in some select companies (look at IAG, Vale, SID, BTU, PKX, Rio Tinto, SLB, etc.). The commodity currencies (fsa, fxc) are still being hit and headed for another pounding in the deep end of the <20 stochastic's pool. Even the Mexican Peso got badly blitzed today and they too are probably a commodity currency. In evaluating all the senior miners across about a dozen indicators I can't find much positive except declining volume in most. But market favorite IAG is showing serious cracks in short term RSI, MACD, with increasing volume as price dips. Newmont showing similar tendancies in stoch, W%R. Most of the seniors look ready to make Aroon10 crosses indicating a down trend is about 1/2 over. KGC has been mired in weakness as of late but has just made a positive Aroon cross saying that it's "uptrend" is more than half over (uptrend?...it's been basically steady to downtrending in price!). I see too many indicators sloping down on the miners. The most obvious are the 15-20 day BB's racing downwards with no turn starting yet. A number of important juniors are now turning over hard on stoch and falling under 80. Toss in bond week and expiration and I think the miners have a few more rough days in store. I'd be surprised if gold hangs around $1220-$1230 in this environment. The banker boyz have the lead and usually don't give it up during the last week of the month. Bonds are forever topping but it sure looks like TLT is exhausting itself. I saw one probability chart that put the odds of bonds being where they currently are outside the 99.8% probability bell curve. Yikes! Libor3M continues it's months long decline still implying banks are lending to each other. Of course the Cardinal Cross came and went but now we have a confirmed lucky Hindy Omen to worry about for the next 90 days.
Gold's price may not hold $1,200 or any other arbitrary number, but if you read your Weimar history you cannot neglect the human element in the equation.
Bernake will do one thing, and people in general will do one thing. I really think that it is important to have a financial anchor and nothing in paper that you can't afford to lose.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I agree wholeheartedly jmski52. While I may trade miner equities from time to time, my core position in physical PM's has remained unchanged. ZeroHedge had a nice article on that subject today which derryb posted on a new thread.
For the first time in almost a year I'm impressed witht he action in PMs. A sharp gap down followed by a strong rally. SLV bounced just when it needed to.
Impressive indeed. That kind of action during this particular week is almost unheard of. The sweep down to around $1212 was pretty much expected but I never would have expected the strength of the bounce. In sort of unison PM's and many commodities temporarily (?) bottomed this morning as TBonds seemed to peak and SM continued south. Are commodities being looked upon as a safer haven once again? Gold and silver bounced right back to their resistance area. They'll need to break $1240/$18.75 to show renewed strength. GSR moved opposite to all the other liquidty indicators that I follow which is most unusual. Also noted that the CDNX continued down today while HUI recovered much of this morning's losses. Usually CDNX has far less volatility and shows the longer moving trend.
In my book, SPY closing under 105.80 creates more downward pressure... therefore I wouldn't discount a bounce tommorrow.
Silver was strong today... we're again close to that 18.50ish area where it just doesn't seem to be able hold; or should I say turn resistance into support.
It's like a broken record...
SLW today makes me think silver won't hold.
There seems to be so much talk of a fall equity crash, seasonal pm's up (setting new highs), dollar testing low 70's... it makes me weary. We shall soon see... be prepared.
<< <i>PC, my point is that I want people to look for the answers, rather than giving them. I'll show you--not singling you out--, the lake and fishing rod, but will not say where to cast. I believe people learn much more when they discover something for themselves. A "Eureka" moment is priceless. I am sure there are at least 100 people who read this thread yet only 3 or 4 add any substantial comment. >>
So every time someone posts on here making a vague prediction that 'x' is going up or down, we should all scramble and spend hours to find out (guess) why they made the prediction they did? You must have more time on your hands than I do, and put more stock into posts on internet message boards than I do. And I don't see how that is very educational or helpful.
<< <i>Where are the others? Why should we, or perhaps I, show them how to fish? >>
You're right that this isn't the "learn how to trade" thread, but does it really hurt to say that you think that x is going to move up because of y chart pattern, or because you anticipate 'x' response to news event or fed decision 'y'? Do you really think you are giving something away here? I post my observations here and I hope others gain something from them - and I gain something from other's posts as well. It doesn't bother me a bit that there may be people reading the thread who aren't contributing...
<< <i>The markets--equities and PMs, had better get their act together soon. Momo is waning quickly. I think if one looks at a basket of global indices--markets, commodities, bonds, currencies--then the clues should be quite apparent. Unfortunately I cannot go into greater detail in a public forum at this time. >>
Yes, God forbid you go on record with the 100's of blogs, newsletters, and other articles that are already saying the same thing (most of them free).
<< <i>I mentioned the SLV chart over a weak ago and my thoughts of a breakout, up or down. I know you are extremely bullish on gold, but you should also see the potential for a breakdown in silver. You think gold will go higher if silver cracks, or is it impossible for silver to tank? You must also consider that downtrends begin when lower highs are made. Are you sure gold there is no potential that gold is making a lower high? >>
Maybe I took too long to reply, but we might already have our answer. Silver is at a decision point and it could go either way, but the 'easy' path appears to be upward - a continuation of the upward channel pattern and the logical result of the analysis in the report in my "HI HO SILVER" thread. Gold and silver could move in opposite directions but if the move is significant it would lead to unheard-of and illogical gold/silver ratio in short order. Possible, but unlikely. Most likely is gold and silver to move in the same direction together - just at different rates.
Gold could be making a lower high - that's always a possibility - but it's not something you can really identify in real time. And depending on what time frame you are referring to, it would mean a premature end to the parabolic move we are in, so it would be unlikely.
A nice swoon and recovery day in gold - a good show of strength, which is what should be expected as we enter the final stage of the parabolic move. Tuesday's action might require a day to consolidate, but it feels like gold may be ready to continue higher on Wednesday if not Thursday. I'm still looking at $1244 or even $1250 as a near term target.
The pivots are at really wide intervals for Wednesday which typically means we're looking at a mild day. Support is at 1217, 1227.2, and resistance at 1242.9, 1253.1, and 1279.
Stocks are not looking good, but they're not exactly free falling. It feels to me like continued directionless consolidation on a larger time frame. This current move down doesn't seem like a new trend. The line in the sand is probably SPX 1000-1010, Best to sit this one out.
Big time hammering this morning on natural gas and to some extent oil. Even the ags are getting into the act. One would think all this will wrap up before the week is out. Edit: as it turns out many recovered by afternoon!
I tend to also think that PC is going to proven out. While I anticipate at least another pull back in gold before this week is out, it may not happen. The seasonal run is no sure thing but I too would hang my hat on strong gold and silver moves between now and November. Yeah, there will be some willy whipsaws along the way but I think it's time to break out of these cup and handles once and for all. Everyone expects the SM and commodities to fall apart in the next 90 days. And more than likely it won't happen. Figure one more spurt up for the dollar before Labor Day and then on to the seasonal PM's move. Options expiration is on Friday this week so it gives the boyz up to the last minute to fool with PM's. And they can knock it back $50 if one day if they decide to. Interesting talk on the gold sites about the LBMA being hit exceptionally heavy for gold deliveries back in late July. Supposedly this is why a July BIS 382 ton gold swap was needed to help keep the lid on the whole mess. Some are saying the LBMA is woefully short on physical gold. The original thought was that maybe some nation like Portugal was the source/concern for the swap. Possibly Portugal was just a smoke screen.
Looking at Vista Gold smoking (VGZ). Up 19% today. I did have 3,000 shares of that about 2 weeks ago and dumped it for "safety" at around $1.36 because PM's looked to be weakening. But I forget the reason I bought the stock in the first place....that it looked to be near bottomed and ready to turn. It did...the day after I sold it. Up about 60% since. Talk about dumba$$!
Looks like gold, the yen and the swiss franc make up the top global three safe haven plays au currant. Got the cross I was hoping for on the swissy. The USD is in a weird spot..................MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I'm excited about the recent moves in gold and silver. It looks like the 'big move' finally is starting. Gold moved higher to my target of 1244, and tonight/tomorrow I anticipate a touch to 1250, but I think the trend has enough energy to blast on through 1250, but it probably won't be ready to bust through the all time high just yet.
Support is at 1233.9, 1238.7, and resistance is at 1246.4, 1251.2, and 1264.
Did some more reading and made some observations on the current situation in stocks. Read some interesting observations that the stock dividend yields of the Dow is now higher than the 10 year bond yield. I'd have to think this is going to start weighing on bonds pretty heavily. But I can't help thinking about the pending disaster with this bond bubble. What happens when everyone wants out? Bond yields are going to have to explode higher, and there will be massive losses in bonds.
Today the SP500 appears to have put in a low and started a reversal. Still too early to tell, but I nibbled on some calls. Stocks are getting oversold, and a rebound would be reasonable here. The 38.2% fib retracement is ~1078, so I think a rebound to this point is likely and that's the point where I'll sell. But it also appears that a further rally is possible to about 1150. Timing models are closing in on indicating trouble between mid September and early October, so if I had to speculate, I'd say we're looking at a SP500 rally to 1150 over the next 2-3 weeks and then possible disaster.
Also read a good article about the Hindenburg signal that has made headlines recently. The article said that the information on Wikipedia is inaccurate, and that the actual criteria for the indicator hasn't been met just yet.
Mining stocks are looking really good, poised for a breakout, to coincide with the breakout in gold:
Mr. Miekka brushes off such concerns. He warns that the trio of Hindenburg Omen appearances this month doesn't bode well, especially since a cluster of occurrences tends to lead to more significant declines. He said it is possible the market could drop 20% from the first sighting two weeks ago. "It's like a funnel cloud," Mr. Miekka says. "You don't get a storm with every funnel cloud, but now that we're seeing several funnel clouds, I definitely think I want to stay in the storm cellar."
Gold completed a broadening top formation between 2-7 am this morning and subsequently fell off. Looks to me that it has completed 3 short legs down and is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle for the 4th wave and pushing up from below at the $1241 resistance line that held for support during most of yesterday. Would expect a 5th leg down from here into the lower $1230's.
To guess what direction is next I look at the hourly chart and also see a broadening top formation that commenced on August 17 with the first peak. This last run completed the 3rd peak at $1246. And in between are 2 lower lows. That would say gold is done (at least briefly) for this current move up. Silver does not show this pattern. It was the crazy jump in gold and silver a couple of days ago that gave the 3rd "crazed" peak on very unusual action. Only oil and cotton had the same topping pattern as gold today, though cotton is still "topping." I don't see it in any other commodity, index, etc.
Gold is in the 3rd up leg that commenced back in late July. Each of those legs lasted around 8 days. Gold is only in the 3rd leg up of this recent jump from $1212. I would expect at least a retracement of a big part of the move from $1212. With gold futures still to expire Friday they might take it back to the $1226 previous all time high before moving higher????
Added at 12:30 ET. Noted some gaps in GDX/GDXJ about 5% lower. GLD also with a gap back at 120.4 and SLV at 18.0. Reasonable levels to drop back to. Silver came within 3 cents of a broadening top formation in the early afternoon, but eventually dropped any ways to follow gold. So far, these are all short term moves.
On the positive side gold has only moved up for 3 days from the most recent low. Usually a leg up lasts about 6-9 days. It appears only 2 up legs have occurred since late July. A 3rd "should" still be completion. Uptrending 20 dma getting ready to cross the 50 dma but 50 dma is still flat. Still have rising macd though it appears to be arching over.
On the downside we have more to assess:
21 days up move or about a little over a month. Gold legs don't last much longer than about 18-23 days. Gold has outperformed about every sector over this period - time for a rest? Gold is now in the 4th up week in a row. 5 weeks in a row would be most unusual if it continues into next week. It's been over 3 yrs since a 5 week move occurred. Today's gold - long necked gravestone doji candlestick is bearish. There were a bunch of these scattered across commodities today. GLD showed declining volume on today's spike, CCI shows negative divergence, 20 day Boll bands are still headed down at about the same rate. Worst of options expiry could still be coming though typically Thursday is the turn around day....sometimes it's as late as Monday. Gold to silver ratio just bounced off the 2 yr uptrend line at 64.5-65.0. That could mean rougher sledding for silver. But it should be noted that both gold and silver bucked a rising GSR last Oct-November to run to new highs. So a rising GSR is not necessarily a negative for gold.
On the positive side gold has only moved up for 3 days from the most recent low. Usually a leg up lasts about 6-9 days. It appears only 2 up legs have occurred since late July. A 3rd "should" still be completion. Uptrending 20 dma getting ready to cross the 50 dma but 50 dma is still flat. Still have rising macd though it appears to be arching over.
On the downside we have more to assess:
21 days up move or about a little over a month. Gold legs don't last much longer than about 18-23 days. Gold has outperformed about every sector over this period - time for a rest? Gold is now in the 4th up week in a row. 5 weeks in a row would be most unusual if it continues into next week. It's been over 3 yrs since a 5 week move occurred. Today's gold - long necked gravestone doji candlestick is bearish. There were a bunch of these scattered across commodities today. GLD showed declining volume on today's spike, CCI shows negative divergence, 20 day Boll bands are still headed down at about the same rate. Worst of options expiry could still be coming though typically Thursday is the turn around day....sometimes it's as late as Monday. Gold to silver ratio just bounced off the 2 yr uptrend line at 64.5-65.0. That could mean rougher sledding for silver. But it should be noted that both gold and silver bucked a rising GSR last Oct-November to run to new highs. So a rising GSR is not necessarily a negative for gold.
Legs and days with uptrending dma gold to silver ratio what will it pay? With CCI,Boll bands and candlestick support it's bullish and bouncing is my retort.
I think it's a good time to add, Kuch. Yes, there may be a small pullback here, $10 or so perhaps, but you're never going to time your entry perfectly. The recent strength looks good and I expect it to continue.
According to some timing models, Thursday was to be a bottom for gold, so that would imply more upside from here, and nothing lower than 1235 in the immediate future. The charts are energized for the next move.
Friday's GDP number or Bernake's speech could ignite gold further, as I expect the message to focus on more QE. Of course it could also cause a tumble if these factors are already priced in.
A 38.2% retracement of recent moves up, depending on where you measure, calls for a pullback anywhere between 1231 and 1235, and we touched the 1235's today so that may be all that's needed. Support for Friday is at 1230.1, 1234.9, and resistance is at 1240.4, 1245.2, 1250.7, and 1261.
Thanks and you u are right. 6:16 am CST Gold at $1,239.70 ... trending up.
Then trending all the way down to $1235 following Bernanke's words, then all the way back up to $1240........then to???? Whipsaw central. The broadening top pattern from August 17th is still in play. Need to get $1246 taken out to negate it.
The IH&S being formed in gold this morning from 8-12 could indicate a move to $1254 relatively soon....assuming it plays out and gold stays above $1235.
Edit: as of 1:30 est gold has whipsawed right back down again now losing for the day. Note a 4 hour broadening top pattern again this morning followed by gold's drop off. This is similar to the one we had yesterday morning only the pattern has dropped overall slightly lower. That coupled with this morning's sweep down to $1234 now followed by a drop all the way back to near that spiked bottom at $1235 looks sort of bearish. 9 day broadening top from 8/17 still in play. GSR has been moving back up towards 65.0.
Yes, gold is quite resistant at these levels and keeps coming right on back like the energizer bunny.
COT commercials added a hefty 15,000 short contracts as of Tuesday. That to go along with the 17,000 they added the week before that. No doubt a number of those shorts were cashed out this week during the sweepdown to $1215. Over the last 4 reports commercials have taken the net shorts from 222K to 264K. Short to long ratio increased from 2.2 to 2.53. If these guys are losing control because of shortages at the LMBS, GLD, and Comex, then these numbers will continue to mean less and less.
Gold has now completed it's 4th up week in a row. If it continues into a rare 5th up week that will put it back in the class of the bull during the pre-2008 run up. Miners surged the past 3-4 days displaying some nice white candles. Goldcorp is the poster child for bullishness right now at 44+ though it's P&F chart is calling for 31. . Even "lowly" Kinross after being beaten down into the upper 14's has moved back to 16.5. Most of the better silver and gold miners have gone up 10% in the past 4 trading days. If you blinked, you missed it. That's how these guys usually do it, right when it looks like they should be going down. Best policy continues to be buy them "too" early when things look terrible, and then hang on because they will shake you off otherwise long before their run is done.
Radomski compares GDXJ:SPY as a sort of gold miner sentiment index showing RSI, ROC, and Slow Stoch at intermediate cyclical peaks.
Just back from annual PPT meeting. Gold is going up forever. Hundreds of gold blogs agree.
Not gonna get into more debate with you PC. Im just gonna write what I see and thats that. You've been saying gold is going parabolic--still waiting, and bonds are a bubble, where the sharp insight to those calls. Bonds (zero coupon) have outperformed gold by a wide margin this year. Im simply trying to get you to look for intermarket relationships which hold the key to these trends. You refuse to believe in these relationships as you've stated in the past, so I'll stop trying to push you to look at them.
All I said is the market is probably gonna weaken--its down 4% since then.
FYI---many people thought they were chartists in the late late 90's. Bull markets have a nasty habit of doing that.
Hope the jumbo shrimp were stellar at the PPT picnic as usual
I'm silly with intermarket remarket relationships as you know. However, how do you explain copper on a day like today? Copper should be getting pummeled. I hope you are not! It's been on a tear.
Edited to add I almost forgot my main point for this post. This area maybe a good spot to intiate a short on a failed breakout. MJ
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Not gonna get into more debate with you PC. Im just gonna write what I see and thats that. You've been saying gold is going parabolic--still waiting, and bonds are a bubble, where the sharp insight to those calls. Bonds (zero coupon) have outperformed gold by a wide margin this year. Im simply trying to get you to look for intermarket relationships which hold the key to these trends. You refuse to believe in these relationships as you've stated in the past, so I'll stop trying to push you to look at them. >>
You can write what you want, but my point was that if you think you're being helpful with a post like the one that started this debate, you're not. I've provided my reasoning for the parabolic gold call, and I will gladly answer questions if you or anyone has them or wants to debate the topic with specifics. I had questions about your post but I guess it's not something you want to dicuss. That's your choice of course, but you shouldn't be under the delusion that you're helping or "teaching" anyone here... we can "learn" just as much from Bear's posts.
I believe that intermarket relationships are important, but that you can't blindly trust or rely on them. The gold-USD relationship inverted earlier this year. How do you account for this "failure" of the longstanding inverse relationship? Had you based any trades on this relationship continuing, you'd have lost money. I do pay attention to those relationships, but in the market condition we're in (volatile), relying on a particular relationship can be dangerous.
<< <i>All I said is the market is probably gonna weaken--its down 4% since then. >>
No, you did NOT say this. You said, "I am sensing a rather dramatic move to occur in all asset classes within the next few weeks. Maybe starting in the next 48 hours."
You did not specificy a direction or a specific market, so almost any move would fit your call. Gold, silver, and copper are up, and SP500 is down about 4%, but still within a recent week's typical fluctuation. This is not the dramatic move your predicted. FWIW, I also believe a large move in stocks and metals is coming. It would be nice to get more info on your observations, but I'm giving up on that.
Didn't get a chance to post last night, but gold is looking good this morning. It seems like we may have broken the 1246 barrier but we'll have to see if it holds. We're now within $16 of new all time highs (currently 1266.5). We've exceeded the highest pivot point I've got for the day, 1257-1258 is likely to provide the next area of resistance.
I didn't post this but I bought some GLD calls Friday and added to positions on Monday. I'll probably sell half when gold hits 1257.
Silver's on a nice run and should be good all of the way to $21.50.
Stocks continue to move sideways. Still best to stay out until the market chooses a direction. The SP500 has yet to make a Fib retracement of the last move down which might mean more down is in store. We may be looking to touch 1010 again. In the medium term I still wouldn't be surprised with a short-lived rally to 1150. Timing models are still pointing to mid-Sept before we see anything really develop in stocks.
Comments
I love you Dave but I think you are a homer and it's holding you back. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i> but unless you say why it means nothing to me
Then it shall be. Sorry. The signs are there. Not trying to sound like an arrogant arse, its just the way it is.
Ok, i'll give a hint. An apple a day..... Every dark cloud has a SLV lining... Does the $INDU have dandruff? >>
If you want to post riddles and puzzles, fine. But don't think you're being helpful or informative. Aside from several possible world events you could be speculating about, as we've discussed reading charts is an art, not a science, and not everyone reads them the same way.
Support for gold is at 1224.7, 1229.2, and resistance at 1234.3, 1238.8, 1243.9.
This is what I was working on posting even before your last post for the SP500. The formation projects to about SP500 @ 1260 if the pattern completes.
Apple not leading the equities market
Silver dark cloud cover candlestick formation
Dow with head and shoulders
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i> but unless you say why it means nothing to me
Then it shall be. Sorry. The signs are there. Not trying to sound like an arrogant arse, its just the way it is.
Ok, i'll give a hint. An apple a day..... Every dark cloud has a SLV lining... Does the $INDU have dandruff? >>
If you want to post riddles and puzzles, fine. But don't think you're being helpful or informative. Aside from several possible world events you could be speculating about, as we've discussed reading charts is an art, not a science, and not everyone reads them the same way.
Support for gold is at 1224.7, 1229.2, and resistance at 1234.3, 1238.8, 1243.9.
This is what I was working on posting even before your last post for the SP500. The formation projects to about SP500 @ 1260 if the pattern completes.
>>
Well, heres another saying im sure you'll have contention with..... Give a man a fish, or teach a man to fish. What do you want to do? Did your college professor give you the answers before each test? You think im making a prediction based on some upcoming world event. I have no freaking idea whats gonna happen in the global political scene, but I do have a pretty darned good idea whats gonna happen with the stock market. You are trading the stock market, so stop looking for reasons, just trade what you see. You are very narrowly focused on a few charts, but markets are baskets of charts. Look at them all.
we've discussed reading charts is an art, not a science, and not everyone reads them the same way.
This is exactly why I make money trading stocks and most people dont. They couldnt read a chart if it was written by Dr. Suess.
Pretty good MJ. Im referring specifically to the SLV chart though.
And MJ, BTW--- America the Beautiful
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I know
FYI- America is most beautiful...............MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Well, heres another saying im sure you'll have contention with..... Give a man a fish, or teach a man to fish. What do you want to do? Did your college professor give you the answers before each test? You think im making a prediction based on some upcoming world event. I have no freaking idea whats gonna happen in the global political scene, but I do have a pretty darned good idea whats gonna happen with the stock market. You are trading the stock market, so stop looking for reasons, just trade what you see. You are very narrowly focused on a few charts, but markets are baskets of charts. Look at them all. >>
My point exactly. Your lines, "I am sensing a rather dramatic move to occur in all asset classes within the next few weeks. Maybe starting in the next 48 hours." does nothing to "teach a man to fish." Part of why I like this forum is that I like to see what other people are seeing. I don't know if you're predicting a world calamity, maybe you've read or you know something that's happening tomorrow that I'm not aware of, etc. You look at one set of charts, I look at another. (And BTW, you have no idea which charts I look at). We all have our favorites, and they don't always agree. Part of the value of this forum is that others like RR posts what they see, and when you post your observations I can get another point of view which is what I value the most. With a post like yours I'm anxious to see the signs and signals you're basing that on so I can evaluate and draw my own conclusions, rather than liquidating my accounts because of your prediction without explanation.
I hope this doesn't come off as negative or an attack - it's not meant to be - it's just that you've made some bold claims, and I see some of the signs myself, and a little more info would be helpful to adjust my confidence level in what I already see and feel.
GSR broke into the 68's on silver's weakness and penetrated beyond the upper 20 day Bollinger Band. It appears that this short term move up is most likely over. Miners, stocks, etc. all moved down sharply today then recovered somewhat...on lower volume. May not be a whole lot more left to this downtrend. But charts can be painted. I'm still going to wait to see how things react to Tuesday's bond auction and upcoming gold/silver futures expiration on 8-27. I read that 200 BILL in bonds are going off next week. Now if every household would buy about $2,000 worth that would about cover it.
roadrunner
The below article shows some interesting junction points in gold. It's now retraced about a 61% FIB of the $1156 down move while also now touching the 20 month uptrend line from November 2008. It had briefly fallen below that line on the way to $1156. As Radomski says, this would be a convenient time for a pull back based on RSI and Stoch as well. The last 2 previous uptrends ended about at this same point. Again, I'll toss in the additional resistances of bond/expiration next week as well as the COT tacking on 16,000 shorts last week, plus untold more during this latest week. What are the odds of breaking back above the 20 month trend line on the first try? Retesting the shorter 15 month uptrend line would make more sense.
Radomski on gold
roadrunner
There is much more to chart reading than looking at a bunch of squiggly lines. That knowledge cannot be shown in an internet chat room. It can(should) take decades to decipher the emotions and psychology of markets.
The markets--equities and PMs, had better get their act together soon. Momo is waning quickly. I think if one looks at a basket of global indices--markets, commodities, bonds, currencies--then the clues should be quite apparent. Unfortunately I cannot go into greater detail in a public forum at this time.
I mentioned the SLV chart over a weak ago and my thoughts of a breakout, up or down. I know you are extremely bullish on gold, but you should also see the potential for a breakdown in silver. You think gold will go higher if silver cracks, or is it impossible for silver to tank? You must also consider that downtrends begin when lower highs are made. Are you sure gold there is no potential that gold is making a lower high?
Money management is risk management. If one does not know how to manage risk, then he cannot manage money.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Unfortunately I cannot go into greater detail in a public forum at this time. >>
'cause he is sure enough going to try....
I knew it would happen.
I certainly add comment...just don't know if I would be included in the 3 or 4 that add "substance."
The markets--equities and PMs, had better get their act together soon. Momo is waning quickly. I think if one looks at a basket of global indices--markets, commodities, bonds, currencies--then the clues should be quite apparent. Unfortunately I cannot go into greater detail in a public forum at this time.
I'm certainly don't have decades of experience (ie a couple of years) but I can comment on what I see at the moment. And it's not that good. I flipped through a hundred or so misc charts to get a flavor of today's trends and I don't see much positive. Most major foreign SM indicies look to be continuing another leg down. The liquidity index of Fxe/fxy still trending down with NZ$/yen just hanging steady after a long downtrend. GSR staying over 68 after bouncing off its upper BB....with designs still on 70. Most commodities and their producers (PM's, copper, oil, steel, gas, base metals, etc.) not looking good. I won't include the Ags in there because they are still hanging tough at high levels with lowering volume and no obvious cracks to be seen yet. I guess people still have to eat, all 7 BILLION of them.
While one could say that volumes have been decreasing the last few days is a bullish sign on this commodities pullback, I'm concerned that increasing volume is starting to show up in some select companies (look at IAG, Vale, SID, BTU, PKX, Rio Tinto, SLB, etc.). The commodity currencies (fsa, fxc) are still being hit and headed for another pounding in the deep end of the <20 stochastic's pool. Even the Mexican Peso got badly blitzed today and they too are probably a commodity currency. In evaluating all the senior miners across about a dozen indicators I can't find much positive except declining volume in most. But market favorite IAG is showing serious cracks in short term RSI, MACD, with increasing volume as price dips. Newmont showing similar tendancies in stoch, W%R. Most of the seniors look ready to make Aroon10 crosses indicating a down trend is about 1/2 over. KGC has been mired in weakness as of late but has just made a positive Aroon cross saying that it's "uptrend" is more than half over (uptrend?...it's been basically steady to downtrending in price!). I see too many indicators sloping down on the miners. The most obvious are the 15-20 day BB's racing downwards with no turn starting yet. A number of important juniors are now turning over hard on stoch and falling under 80. Toss in bond week and expiration and I think the miners have a few more rough days in store. I'd be surprised if gold hangs around $1220-$1230 in this environment. The banker boyz have the lead and usually don't give it up during the last week of the month. Bonds are forever topping but it sure looks like TLT is exhausting itself. I saw one probability chart that put the odds of bonds being where they currently are outside the 99.8% probability bell curve. Yikes! Libor3M continues it's months long decline still implying banks are lending to each other. Of course the Cardinal Cross came and went but now we have a confirmed lucky Hindy Omen to worry about for the next 90 days.
roadrunner
Bernake will do one thing, and people in general will do one thing. I really think that it is important to have a financial anchor and nothing in paper that you can't afford to lose.
I knew it would happen.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
Silver & stock market going up, gold going down
Silver was strong today... we're again close to that 18.50ish area where it just doesn't seem to be able hold; or should I say turn resistance into support.
It's like a broken record...
SLW today makes me think silver won't hold.
There seems to be so much talk of a fall equity crash, seasonal pm's up (setting new highs), dollar testing low 70's... it makes me weary. We shall soon see... be prepared.
<< <i>PC, my point is that I want people to look for the answers, rather than giving them. I'll show you--not singling you out--, the lake and fishing rod, but will not say where to cast. I believe people learn much more when they discover something for themselves. A "Eureka" moment is priceless. I am sure there are at least 100 people who read this thread yet only 3 or 4 add any substantial comment. >>
So every time someone posts on here making a vague prediction that 'x' is going up or down, we should all scramble and spend hours to find out (guess) why they made the prediction they did? You must have more time on your hands than I do, and put more stock into posts on internet message boards than I do. And I don't see how that is very educational or helpful.
<< <i>Where are the others? Why should we, or perhaps I, show them how to fish? >>
You're right that this isn't the "learn how to trade" thread, but does it really hurt to say that you think that x is going to move up because of y chart pattern, or because you anticipate 'x' response to news event or fed decision 'y'? Do you really think you are giving something away here? I post my observations here and I hope others gain something from them - and I gain something from other's posts as well. It doesn't bother me a bit that there may be people reading the thread who aren't contributing...
<< <i>The markets--equities and PMs, had better get their act together soon. Momo is waning quickly. I think if one looks at a basket of global indices--markets, commodities, bonds, currencies--then the clues should be quite apparent. Unfortunately I cannot go into greater detail in a public forum at this time. >>
Yes, God forbid you go on record with the 100's of blogs, newsletters, and other articles that are already saying the same thing (most of them free).
<< <i>I mentioned the SLV chart over a weak ago and my thoughts of a breakout, up or down. I know you are extremely bullish on gold, but you should also see the potential for a breakdown in silver. You think gold will go higher if silver cracks, or is it impossible for silver to tank? You must also consider that downtrends begin when lower highs are made. Are you sure gold there is no potential that gold is making a lower high? >>
Maybe I took too long to reply, but we might already have our answer. Silver is at a decision point and it could go either way, but the 'easy' path appears to be upward - a continuation of the upward channel pattern and the logical result of the analysis in the report in my "HI HO SILVER" thread. Gold and silver could move in opposite directions but if the move is significant it would lead to unheard-of and illogical gold/silver ratio in short order. Possible, but unlikely. Most likely is gold and silver to move in the same direction together - just at different rates.
Gold could be making a lower high - that's always a possibility - but it's not something you can really identify in real time. And depending on what time frame you are referring to, it would mean a premature end to the parabolic move we are in, so it would be unlikely.
The pivots are at really wide intervals for Wednesday which typically means we're looking at a mild day. Support is at 1217, 1227.2, and resistance at 1242.9, 1253.1, and 1279.
Stocks are not looking good, but they're not exactly free falling. It feels to me like continued directionless consolidation on a larger time frame. This current move down doesn't seem like a new trend. The line in the sand is probably SPX 1000-1010, Best to sit this one out.
I tend to also think that PC is going to proven out. While I anticipate at least another pull back in gold before this week is out, it may not happen. The seasonal run is no sure thing but I too would hang my hat on strong gold and silver moves between now and November. Yeah, there will be some willy whipsaws along the way but I think it's time to break out of these cup and handles once and for all. Everyone expects the SM and commodities to fall apart in the next 90 days. And more than likely it won't happen. Figure one more spurt up for the dollar before Labor Day and then on to the seasonal PM's move. Options expiration is on Friday this week so it gives the boyz up to the last minute to fool with PM's. And they can knock it back $50 if one day if they decide to. Interesting talk on the gold sites about the LBMA being hit exceptionally heavy for gold deliveries back in late July. Supposedly this is why a July BIS 382 ton gold swap was needed to help keep the lid on the whole mess. Some are saying the LBMA is woefully short on physical gold. The original thought was that maybe some nation like Portugal was the source/concern for the swap. Possibly Portugal was just a smoke screen.
Looking at Vista Gold smoking (VGZ). Up 19% today. I did have 3,000 shares of that about 2 weeks ago and dumped it for "safety" at around $1.36 because PM's looked to be weakening. But I forget the reason I bought the stock in the first place....that it looked to be near bottomed and ready to turn. It did...the day after I sold it. Up about 60% since. Talk about dumba$$!
roadrunner
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Support is at 1233.9, 1238.7, and resistance is at 1246.4, 1251.2, and 1264.
Did some more reading and made some observations on the current situation in stocks. Read some interesting observations that the stock dividend yields of the Dow is now higher than the 10 year bond yield. I'd have to think this is going to start weighing on bonds pretty heavily. But I can't help thinking about the pending disaster with this bond bubble. What happens when everyone wants out? Bond yields are going to have to explode higher, and there will be massive losses in bonds.
Today the SP500 appears to have put in a low and started a reversal. Still too early to tell, but I nibbled on some calls. Stocks are getting oversold, and a rebound would be reasonable here. The 38.2% fib retracement is ~1078, so I think a rebound to this point is likely and that's the point where I'll sell. But it also appears that a further rally is possible to about 1150. Timing models are closing in on indicating trouble between mid September and early October, so if I had to speculate, I'd say we're looking at a SP500 rally to 1150 over the next 2-3 weeks and then possible disaster.
Also read a good article about the Hindenburg signal that has made headlines recently. The article said that the information on Wikipedia is inaccurate, and that the actual criteria for the indicator hasn't been met just yet.
Mining stocks are looking really good, poised for a breakout, to coincide with the breakout in gold:
Mr. Miekka brushes off such concerns. He warns that the trio of Hindenburg Omen appearances this month doesn't bode well, especially since a cluster of occurrences tends to lead to more significant declines. He said it is possible the market could drop 20% from the first sighting two weeks ago. "It's like a funnel cloud," Mr. Miekka says. "You don't get a storm with every funnel cloud, but now that we're seeing several funnel clouds, I definitely think I want to stay in the storm cellar."
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Gold completed a broadening top formation between 2-7 am this morning and subsequently fell off. Looks to me that it has completed 3 short legs down and is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle for the 4th wave and pushing up from below at the $1241 resistance line that held for support during most of yesterday. Would expect a 5th leg down from here into the lower $1230's.
To guess what direction is next I look at the hourly chart and also see a broadening top formation that commenced on August 17 with the first peak. This last run completed the 3rd peak at $1246. And in between are 2 lower lows. That would say gold is done (at least briefly) for this current move up. Silver does not show this pattern. It was the crazy jump in gold and silver a couple of days ago that gave the 3rd "crazed" peak on very unusual action. Only oil and cotton had the same topping pattern as gold today, though cotton is still "topping." I don't see it in any other commodity, index, etc.
Gold is in the 3rd up leg that commenced back in late July. Each of those legs lasted around 8 days. Gold is only in the 3rd leg up of this recent jump from $1212. I would expect at least a retracement of a big part of the move from $1212. With gold futures still to expire Friday they might take it back to the $1226 previous all time high before moving higher????
gold hourly chart
Added at 12:30 ET. Noted some gaps in GDX/GDXJ about 5% lower. GLD also with a gap back at 120.4 and SLV at 18.0. Reasonable levels to drop back to. Silver came within 3 cents of a broadening top formation in the early afternoon, but eventually dropped any ways to follow gold. So far, these are all short term moves.
roadrunner
Hey, with quantitative easing and China cutting back on Treasury purchases, it takes alot more of them to "meet their funding objectives" these days.
I knew it would happen.
On the positive side gold has only moved up for 3 days from the most recent low. Usually a leg up lasts about 6-9 days. It appears only 2 up legs have occurred since late July. A 3rd "should" still be completion. Uptrending 20 dma getting ready to cross the 50 dma but 50 dma is still flat. Still have rising macd though it appears to be arching over.
On the downside we have more to assess:
21 days up move or about a little over a month. Gold legs don't last much longer than about 18-23 days. Gold has outperformed about every sector over this period - time for a rest?
Gold is now in the 4th up week in a row. 5 weeks in a row would be most unusual if it continues into next week. It's been over 3 yrs since a 5 week move occurred.
Today's gold - long necked gravestone doji candlestick is bearish. There were a bunch of these scattered across commodities today.
GLD showed declining volume on today's spike, CCI shows negative divergence, 20 day Boll bands are still headed down at about the same rate.
Worst of options expiry could still be coming though typically Thursday is the turn around day....sometimes it's as late as Monday.
Gold to silver ratio just bounced off the 2 yr uptrend line at 64.5-65.0. That could mean rougher sledding for silver. But it should be noted that both gold and silver bucked a rising GSR last Oct-November to run to new highs. So a rising GSR is not necessarily a negative for gold.
roadrunner
<< <i>Good question.
On the positive side gold has only moved up for 3 days from the most recent low. Usually a leg up lasts about 6-9 days. It appears only 2 up legs have occurred since late July. A 3rd "should" still be completion. Uptrending 20 dma getting ready to cross the 50 dma but 50 dma is still flat. Still have rising macd though it appears to be arching over.
On the downside we have more to assess:
21 days up move or about a little over a month. Gold legs don't last much longer than about 18-23 days. Gold has outperformed about every sector over this period - time for a rest?
Gold is now in the 4th up week in a row. 5 weeks in a row would be most unusual if it continues into next week. It's been over 3 yrs since a 5 week move occurred.
Today's gold - long necked gravestone doji candlestick is bearish. There were a bunch of these scattered across commodities today.
GLD showed declining volume on today's spike, CCI shows negative divergence, 20 day Boll bands are still headed down at about the same rate.
Worst of options expiry could still be coming though typically Thursday is the turn around day....sometimes it's as late as Monday.
Gold to silver ratio just bounced off the 2 yr uptrend line at 64.5-65.0. That could mean rougher sledding for silver. But it should be noted that both gold and silver bucked a rising GSR last Oct-November to run to new highs. So a rising GSR is not necessarily a negative for gold.
Legs and days with uptrending dma
gold to silver ratio what will it pay?
With CCI,Boll bands and candlestick support
it's bullish and bouncing is my retort.
roadrunner >>
According to some timing models, Thursday was to be a bottom for gold, so that would imply more upside from here, and nothing lower than 1235 in the immediate future. The charts are energized for the next move.
Friday's GDP number or Bernake's speech could ignite gold further, as I expect the message to focus on more QE. Of course it could also cause a tumble if these factors are already priced in.
A 38.2% retracement of recent moves up, depending on where you measure, calls for a pullback anywhere between 1231 and 1235, and we touched the 1235's today so that may be all that's needed. Support for Friday is at 1230.1, 1234.9, and resistance is at 1240.4, 1245.2, 1250.7, and 1261.
Then trending all the way down to $1235 following Bernanke's words, then all the way back up to $1240........then to????
Whipsaw central. The broadening top pattern from August 17th is still in play. Need to get $1246 taken out to negate it.
The IH&S being formed in gold this morning from 8-12 could indicate a move to $1254 relatively soon....assuming it plays out and gold stays above $1235.
Edit: as of 1:30 est gold has whipsawed right back down again now losing for the day. Note a 4 hour broadening top pattern again this morning followed by gold's drop off. This is similar to the one we had yesterday morning only the pattern has dropped overall slightly lower. That coupled with this morning's sweep down to $1234 now followed by a drop all the way back to near that spiked bottom at $1235 looks sort of bearish. 9 day broadening top from 8/17 still in play. GSR has been moving back up towards 65.0.
roadrunner
Gold's made 2 attempts on 1246, I expect the 3rd or 4th to take it out. Monday should be exciting.
COT commercials added a hefty 15,000 short contracts as of Tuesday. That to go along with the 17,000 they added the week before that. No doubt a number of those shorts were cashed out this week during the sweepdown to $1215. Over the last 4 reports commercials have taken the net shorts from 222K to 264K. Short to long ratio increased from 2.2 to 2.53. If these guys are losing control because of shortages at the LMBS, GLD, and Comex, then these numbers will continue to mean less and less.
Gold has now completed it's 4th up week in a row. If it continues into a rare 5th up week that will put it back in the class of the bull during the pre-2008 run up. Miners surged the past 3-4 days displaying some nice white candles. Goldcorp is the poster child for bullishness right now at 44+ though it's P&F chart is calling for 31. . Even "lowly" Kinross after being beaten down into the upper 14's has moved back to 16.5. Most of the better silver and gold miners have gone up 10% in the past 4 trading days. If you blinked, you missed it. That's how these guys usually do it, right when it looks like they should be going down. Best policy continues to be buy them "too" early when things look terrible, and then hang on because they will shake you off otherwise long before their run is done.
Radomski compares GDXJ:SPY as a sort of gold miner sentiment index showing RSI, ROC, and Slow Stoch at intermediate cyclical peaks.
Radomski on gold miner sentiment
roadrunner
Not gonna get into more debate with you PC. Im just gonna write what I see and thats that. You've been saying gold is going parabolic--still waiting, and bonds are a bubble, where the sharp insight to those calls. Bonds (zero coupon) have outperformed gold by a wide margin this year. Im simply trying to get you to look for intermarket relationships which hold the key to these trends. You refuse to believe in these relationships as you've stated in the past, so I'll stop trying to push you to look at them.
All I said is the market is probably gonna weaken--its down 4% since then.
FYI---many people thought they were chartists in the late late 90's. Bull markets have a nasty habit of doing that.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hope the jumbo shrimp were stellar at the PPT picnic as usual
I'm silly with intermarket remarket relationships as you know. However, how do you explain copper on a day like today? Copper should be getting pummeled. I hope you are not! It's been on a tear.
Copper downright giddy
Your favorite short ain't cooperating.
Since the $3.00 mark it's up over 10%
Edited to add I almost forgot my main point for this post. This area maybe a good spot to intiate a short on a failed breakout. MJ
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Not gonna get into more debate with you PC. Im just gonna write what I see and thats that. You've been saying gold is going parabolic--still waiting, and bonds are a bubble, where the sharp insight to those calls. Bonds (zero coupon) have outperformed gold by a wide margin this year. Im simply trying to get you to look for intermarket relationships which hold the key to these trends. You refuse to believe in these relationships as you've stated in the past, so I'll stop trying to push you to look at them. >>
You can write what you want, but my point was that if you think you're being helpful with a post like the one that started this debate, you're not. I've provided my reasoning for the parabolic gold call, and I will gladly answer questions if you or anyone has them or wants to debate the topic with specifics. I had questions about your post but I guess it's not something you want to dicuss. That's your choice of course, but you shouldn't be under the delusion that you're helping or "teaching" anyone here... we can "learn" just as much from Bear's posts.
I believe that intermarket relationships are important, but that you can't blindly trust or rely on them. The gold-USD relationship inverted earlier this year. How do you account for this "failure" of the longstanding inverse relationship? Had you based any trades on this relationship continuing, you'd have lost money. I do pay attention to those relationships, but in the market condition we're in (volatile), relying on a particular relationship can be dangerous.
<< <i>All I said is the market is probably gonna weaken--its down 4% since then. >>
No, you did NOT say this. You said, "I am sensing a rather dramatic move to occur in all asset classes within the next few weeks. Maybe starting in the next 48 hours."
You did not specificy a direction or a specific market, so almost any move would fit your call. Gold, silver, and copper are up, and SP500 is down about 4%, but still within a recent week's typical fluctuation. This is not the dramatic move your predicted. FWIW, I also believe a large move in stocks and metals is coming. It would be nice to get more info on your observations, but I'm giving up on that.
I didn't post this but I bought some GLD calls Friday and added to positions on Monday. I'll probably sell half when gold hits 1257.
Silver's on a nice run and should be good all of the way to $21.50.
Stocks continue to move sideways. Still best to stay out until the market chooses a direction. The SP500 has yet to make a Fib retracement of the last move down which might mean more down is in store. We may be looking to touch 1010 again. In the medium term I still wouldn't be surprised with a short-lived rally to 1150. Timing models are still pointing to mid-Sept before we see anything really develop in stocks.