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Analysis on gold v. equities
ranshdow
Posts: 1,433 ✭✭✭✭
Sitka Pacific Capital Management had this to say about the relationship between the gold price and equity valuations in the May, 2010 client letter, which can be found here: http://www.sitkapacific.com
The S&P Composite is currently trading near the price of gold—104% of gold at the end of March. Stocks have lost roughly 80% of their value relative to gold since 2000, but that doesn’t necessarily make stocks cheap. In the past, durable lows have been made between 16%-31% of the price of gold. The main message of the chart below (see pdf on their homepage for details) is that throughout various currency regimes, periods of inflation and deflation, and economic boom and bust, the price of stocks relative to gold has fluctuated between a range of highs and lows... The implication is that while stocks have already lost ~80% against gold, they will most likely lose another 70%-80% against gold before this long-term bear market is over. That may sound like a fantastic claim, but it would simply be another repeat of history that so far has no exceptions. The real challenge in the coming years will be to discern how that devaluation will happen.
The S&P Composite is currently trading near the price of gold—104% of gold at the end of March. Stocks have lost roughly 80% of their value relative to gold since 2000, but that doesn’t necessarily make stocks cheap. In the past, durable lows have been made between 16%-31% of the price of gold. The main message of the chart below (see pdf on their homepage for details) is that throughout various currency regimes, periods of inflation and deflation, and economic boom and bust, the price of stocks relative to gold has fluctuated between a range of highs and lows... The implication is that while stocks have already lost ~80% against gold, they will most likely lose another 70%-80% against gold before this long-term bear market is over. That may sound like a fantastic claim, but it would simply be another repeat of history that so far has no exceptions. The real challenge in the coming years will be to discern how that devaluation will happen.
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I knew it would happen.
http://www.sitkapacific.com/files/Sitka_Pacific_Capital_Management_May_2010_Client_Letter.pdf
Big money now controls the Gold as well as the velocity of stock price movements
to make money on the short volume trade.
I no longer trust either market. Unless and until we get a Government to effectively
clean up the mess,It looks like things will get worse, far worse before there is any
possibility of improvement.
Camelot