Is silver ready for massive crash again?

konsole

If silver is considered an industrial metal by a majority of the uninformed public, then whats preventing silver from crashing again like it did in 2008 to sub $10? From what I see silver is rarely ever treated like a monetary metal in the markets and has moved with the overall market most of the time for atleast the past few years. If the markets continue to have a significant downward push, like the majority of the public believes is the current situation, then whats going to hold silver to less then a few dollars drop? Hopefully you guys will have some encouraging information about why silver won't be treated as just another disposable asset by the big players in the near future, I just have a hard time believing that the high investment demand and recent investigations for silver is enough to overcome the manipulation and its companionship with the direction of the rest of the market. Too often when I see gold do really well yes silver usually does really well with it, but when gold just holds on then silver will often tank. I have faith that gold will hold up once again as the markets fall but my faith in silver holding up is waining.

DrBuster

I'd love to see it drop so I can buy some more.

tincup

Bring the drop on!!

tincup

And hopefully the drop will come right before the 5 ounce silver hockey pucks bullion coins come out!

Wingsrule

GSR just broke 70. First time I can remember seeing that for awhile.

jmski52

Silver has reached backwardation twice in the past couple years, which indicates to some of us that there is likely a physical shortage brewing, somewhere in the supply chain. It's true that silver reacts as an industrial commodity, but it also has a long history as a monetary metal. Most people think in terms of percentages, I think in orders of magnitude. Right now, the world debt is orders of magnitude greater than it was a mere 20 years ago, not counting the unfunded liabilities that are also orders of magnitude larger than any time in history. I can make a much better case for silver or gold than I can for paper assets at this time. You can't eat either, but I'd sure rather have precious metals in-hand if I need them.

1970SilverArt

It might drop but I think that DOG called silver will resume its run to $20 and break it and it will finish at $23.00 (or more) on December 31, 2010. Just my gut feeling prediction with nothing to back it up with.

gsa1fan

can't do any AU / Ag trades at 70GSR!

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>If silver is considered an industrial metal by a majority of the uninformed public, then whats preventing silver from crashing again like it did in 2008 to sub $10? From what I see silver is rarely ever treated like a monetary metal in the markets and has moved with the overall market most of the time for atleast the past few years. If the markets continue to have a significant downward push, like the majority of the public believes is the current situation, then whats going to hold silver to less then a few dollars drop? Hopefully you guys will have some encouraging information about why silver won't be treated as just another disposable asset by the big players in the near future, I just have a hard time believing that the high investment demand and recent investigations for silver is enough to overcome the manipulation and its companionship with the direction of the rest of the market. Too often when I see gold do really well yes silver usually does really well with it, but when gold just holds on then silver will often tank. I have faith that gold will hold up once again as the markets fall but my faith in silver holding up is waining. >>



If silver drops to $10 an ounce it will definitely be the Buy of the Century!!

Consider the drop a Godsend.

I'll mortgage the house, sell all my coins at 1/2 of Bid and even sell my golf clubs to buy every dang ounce of silver I can.

And you'd be a fool not to do the same.

Bear

As a contrarian, I say yes. Batten down the hatches, lash down the cargo

and string storm line fore and aft.

AgBlox

I believe we will see sub $10 silver again...soon.

SeaEagleCoins

<< <i>I believe we will see sub $10 silver again...soon. >>




While this may or may not happen... if it does happen, I would guess that the supply of "buyable and holdable" hard silver would dry up BIGTIME... JMHO

cone10

Its not crashing today but I could see silver dropping to 15.00 and at that point I'm a big buyer.

1970SilverArt

I think that it is possible that it could fall to $15.00 but the main question would be this........how far would silver premiums fall if spot silver drops to $15.00? Would people still be able to buy silver if spot falls to $15.00? I think that spot silver would have to stay in the $15.00 range in order for silver premiums to go down to "reasonable" levels. If silver drops to $15.00 and recovers a day or two later, then the silver premiums will not change IMO.

With that said, I am predicting for silver to finish at $23.00 (or higher) on December 31, 2010.

gsa1fan

Seems it crash's every time it nears $19oz. GSR was 60 to 1 for a while now pushing 70 to 1?

57loaded

<< <i>
If silver drops to $10 an ounce it will definitely be the Buy of the Century!!

Consider the drop a Godsend.

I'll mortgage the house, sell all my coins at 1/2 of Bid and even sell my golf clubs to buy every dang ounce of silver I can.

And you'd be a fool not to do the same. >>



well it was $10.50 an ounce early last year, albeit for a day.......

roadrunner

If silver is considered an industrial metal by a majority of the uninformed public, then whats preventing silver from crashing again like it did in 2008 to sub $10?

The uninformed USA public shouldn't be tossed into the mix of the European, Asian, South American, African, and Australian public that mostly understands the value of gold and silver. There are enough in the USA public who understand silver as a partial monetary metal. Considering that the annual world production of silver is only worth around $10B-$15B per year, it doesn't take much buying to move the price. Just 3 days of US deficit spending costs $12 BILL. Prior to 2004 Warren Buffet owned about 120 MILL ounces of silver ($2 BILL at today's prices) but was "convinced" to sell it for future "concessions" and "draft picks.'

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for $10 silver again. But if it does happen it will be another great buying opportunity. The gold to silver ratio last hit 73 in February. Back in October 2008 it peaked out at 93. So a return to the upper 70's or even lower 80's sometime this summer would not be out of the question. The trend since September has been upwards.

The crash to $8-$10 in 2008 was not primarily caused by the public selling their precious physical bullion but more by an increasing hoard of paper comex shorts and derivatives held by the big banks. JPMorgan inherited the massive pile of shorts that Bear Stearns accumuated up to March 2008. Then in July 2008 JPM and others decided to more than double the amount of derivatives in the silver market (from $90 BILL to $190 BILL). The tanking of silver from July-October was a given. Note that $190 BILL in derivatives covered over 10 yrs of world silver production. What other "freely" traded commodity needs a couple of big banks shorting 10 yrs of production to help "manage" the price and never be questioned by the CFTC? Today, the silver derivatives position is down to a more tame $100 BILL or so...lol. Silver price "discovery" is managed by unbacked paper products, not real silver. That's why even when silver fell to $9/oz on paper, the physical product was bringing large premiums. I don't know if JPM can today ramp up the shorts like they did in 2008 and not invite unwanted CFTC investigations.

roadrunner

Wolf359

The uninformed USA public shouldn't be tossed into the mix of the European, Asian, South American, African, and Australian public that mostly understands the value of gold and silver.

What a powerful statement.

Ted Butler claims JP Morgan has thrown in the towel on shorting silver. Other commercials, however, are picking up the slack.

cohodk

<< <i>Silver has reached backwardation twice in the past couple years, which indicates to some of us that there is likely a physical shortage brewing, somewhere in the supply chain. It's true that silver reacts as an industrial commodity, but it also has a long history as a monetary metal. Most people think in terms of percentages, I think in orders of magnitude. Right now, the world debt is orders of magnitude greater than it was a mere 20 years ago, not counting the unfunded liabilities that are also orders of magnitude larger than any time in history. I can make a much better case for silver or gold than I can for paper assets at this time. You can't eat either, but I'd sure rather have precious metals in-hand if I need them. >>




There is no backwardation.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_globex.html

jmski52

There is no backwardation.

Nope, not at this time. Interesting data - about 35,000 contracts in play. 5,000 oz. contract size, right? So, we have 175,000,000 oz. of silver being played with on paper. Isn't the monthly offtake quite a bit less than that?

How much physical silver is stored in Comex? Or does anyone really know? Yeah, I know - the ETFs have all this silver.

Even if Comex had 175,000,000 in physical silver, it's worth only about $3.5 Billion @ $20.00/oz. Geez, that's not even enough to keep Congress in high cotton for 20 minutes!

derryb

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