Hot Springs Quarters Opinions

packers88

Ok, there was alot of hype of the 2009 lp4 lincoln philly penny being the lowest minted penny in 50 some years. Now it looks like only 29 million Hot Springs denvers were minted and that would also make it the lowest minted quarter in over 50 years. To put this number in perspective when the statehood quarters came out the mintage of each state was around 400 million for the first year, so hot springs is about 7% of that number. What I'm starting to wonder if this series explodes and gets the same fan fare as the statehood quarters wouldn't collectors wanting every roll or quarter in the series drive hot springs rolls through the roof? I say through the roof because if hot springs was only 7% of the mintage of lets say delaware this would make this extremely scarce relative to delaware and if collectors scrambled for delaware rolls shortly after the series started what would happen if there was a buying frenzy on hot springs rolls with a mintage of only 7% of delaware quarters? Yes, the series needs to take off and if these national park quarters are the majority of quarters you see in circulation for the next 10 years then collectors should start coming in by large numbers.


I've spoken to some dealers and a few coin shops and the consensus has been that this program has been dead since inception, but I'm now getting feedback like the program is starting to pick up, or as the more well known parks come out the series will take off, when a nice reverse design comes out like yellowstone then the series will take off, when they start showing up in circulation the series will take off, etc... IF this program becomes even half the success as the statehood quarter program it seems to me that the hot springs rolls will take off since supply won't come close to meeting demand. I expect the Mint to produce alot more yellowstone just because of its name recoginition which will further put into perspective on the importance of the hot springs low mintage of only 29 million. Is anyone else on the same page as I am in being optomistic on the hot springs rolls?

Sonorandesertrat

Very optimistic, IMO.

MsMorrisine

I'm finding kids are still interested while more adults are apathetic or merely curiouss. I attribute that to fatigue from the state quarters.

1tommy

Bought a bag of each d and p and hopefully going to pick up one bag of each of this series. the banks around here still do not have any of these. But if your numbers are right than will have to wait and see.

291fifth

This series doesn't appear to have generated much buzz.

Too many new issues over the past eleven years may be causing burn out among the casual collectors this series was designed to appeal to.

Manorcourtman

If your numbers are correct and 29 million were minted then I bet 15+ million will remain in rolls unopened and hoarded by collectors. With liitle demand and a lot of uncirculated examples around I'd say the pontential of these being diamonds in the rough are slim.

GritsMan

I, too, think it will pick up steam, but I do wonder about the Mint's future decisions. The low mintage of the HS quarter seems a function of a dragging economy. I'll be interested to see if Yellowstone, Yosemite, etc... really do have much larger mintages.

BTW, I got three rolls of HS quarters from my bank last week and they are FUGLY! Can't remember a more pathetic design on a coin. This, of course, could turn it into a real winner later if it's totally ignored and most of the supply goes into circulation. People will look back and think "Man, I need one of these things."

BillyKingsley

I will be interested to see how this series plays out over the years. The general "collector lunatic fringe" buzz seems to be less than exemplary on this series. Most of said lunatic fringe (those who are involved enough to be on message boards) seem to have little to no interest, ranging down to even blind rage.

I don't know what the general public thinks about them. (as they are not on our message boards!) but IF they take the same general line of thought that much of the forum has, then this I could really see this becoming a key (or more likely semi-key) down the road.

HOWEVER, this being the first example in a new series, I think that they will be saved more then used. They could very well be like the 1950 nickels...there is enough supply for them to be around, yet there is still demand for them as a key date.

I would be more inclined to believe some of the lesser known issues due for the future will be both lower mintage and lower interest.

But, time will tell.

I personally just want one nice example of each mint, I don't need rolls or bags or whatnot.

MsMorrisine

I have to agree that the economy is playing some role, whatever the size is.

packers88

This says it all

Delaware first in the series of statehood quarters 401,000,000 denvers minted

HOt Springs first in the series of national parks 29,000,000 denvers minted or 7% of the mintage of delawares.

IF Illinois rolls can sell retail for $50 I can't imagine what could happen to these hot springs quarters if the national park program sees even half of the collectors that the statehood program saw. I will gladly take my chances and sit on a few bank boxes especially if i can get them for face from some bank. I think publicity in magazines like coinworld touting the hot springs quarter as the lowest minted quarter in 50 years and big name parks coming out like yellowstone which should receive plenty of national press because of the well known name of yellowstone will get the series kicked off.

1tommy

check out this link that tahoe put up in his thread after reading than lets here what you think?http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=776271 It really ticked me off after reading that the us mint is claiming that have put enough of these away to last a year, Its no wonder why there not showing up at any banks the mint has finally gotten smart and is hoarding them to sell at a premium instead of face value. I just can't see how this is right for those of us who have already bought the bags or rolls when they went on sale, they should not beable to just keep them in a vault...........................

CaptHenway

<< <i>This says it all

Delaware first in the series of statehood quarters 401,000,000 denvers minted

HOt Springs first in the series of national parks 29,000,000 denvers minted or 7% of the mintage of delawares.

IF Illinois rolls can sell retail for $50 I can't imagine what could happen to these hot springs quarters if the national park program sees even half of the collectors that the statehood program saw. I will gladly take my chances and sit on a few bank boxes especially if i can get them for face from some bank. I think publicity in magazines like coinworld touting the hot springs quarter as the lowest minted quarter in 50 years and big name parks coming out like yellowstone which should receive plenty of national press because of the well known name of yellowstone will get the series kicked off. >>



The Illinois quarter went up because of telemarketers buying them up to use with various President Obama stick-ons or overlays. The same thing happened previously with the Tennessee quarters being telemarketed with Elvis stick-ons.

The Arkansas quarters have been a dud in the coin shop for a number of reasons, including:

Late release, and very poor circulation. Very few people collect the Presidential dollars because they do not circulate. Very few people collected the Territorial quarters because they were seldom seen in circulation. I have yet to receive a Hot Springs quarter in circulation.

Collector burnout. Ten years of the statehood quarters taxed collectors' patience.

Lack of novelty. The 1999 Delaware quarters were the first new design in circulation since the 1976 bicentennial quarter, and the second new design since 1932. The Hot Springs quarter is the 57th new design since 1976.

TD

melvin289

Watching the State Quarters Program reminded me a lot of the sports card market in the late 80's and early 90's. As long as the dealers had the cards they were valuable. As soon as they had sold their stock and collectors tried to sell them back to the dealers they were no longer worth anything. Is it not the same with the State Quarters? You cannot tune in to late night TV without someone screaming at you to buy State Quarters. Just as soon as these medicine show salesmen have sold out, one would do good to get face for the State Quarters. I have still yet to receive a Presidential Dollar in change or even see one other than in a mint set. But it seems the dealers have plenty of them to sell on late night TV.

It will probably be the same with the National Parks Quarters.

Ron

packers88

I'm convinced these national park quarters will massively hit circulation, although it may take a year. We are at the tail end of a recession and new coins will once again become in demand as the economy improves and more commerce takes place. Getting these quarters to circulate and available at banks is the key to this and any other series. For the next 20 years and probably longer I bet in a year or two from now half the quarters you get back in circulation will be park quarters. In addition, the hometown pride is going to kick in as each state gets their release. Once again, collector burnout is a very limited excuse because the main demographics of the statehood quarter program (grandparents) have been replaced with a new breed of grandparents. Here is biggest factor why I believe the national park quarters will take off, if this were a series of 20 parks with no correlation to each state getting their own quarter for their own park then i could see this program being weak, but in essence each state is once again getting their own unique statehood quarter with the only difference the design being from one of their national parks.

Are state quarters an investments, NO, way too many. Now here's my point, in the first year of the statehood quarter program the total mintage between both mints averaged around 860 million for each quarter and for delaware the very first quarter in the series the total mintage was 775 million. Now the total mintage of hot springs is about 60 million or only a measly 8% of the total mintage of delaware quarters. My point is as collectors gradually come into this series and look for previous quarters to fill their collection, they are only going to have a pool of 60 million to get their hot springs quarters from as opposed to the collectors having a pool of 775 million to get their delawares from. Much much less supply to go around and even if the demand is half you still have much much less supply of hot springs to go around which normally means higher prices. I personally think mintages for quarters in 2011 and beyond will get in the 3 billion range or about 600 million for each national park to meet commerce needs as the economy recovers. In the intern as the economy still suffers this year, I believe the mint will make many more quarters of the the well known parks based on common sense of collectors wanting the big name parks more than the no name, just like collectors will scramble for lincoln dollars and not care much about Pierce dollars.. In essence, you will have the big name parks coming out this year getting much higher mintages to meet collector demand and hopefully by next year the economy has turned and you then have demand from the fed to meet commerce demand.

I see future parks this year with mintages of 300 million or so for each park and in the following years around 600 million for each park. Hot spring will have an ubelievably low mintage to these other parks and coupled with the fact that first in the series seem to out perforn others I think the hot springs rolls could really be one of the true moderns where you have a chance to actually beat the stock market and bank on a significant scale.

GritsMan

Just some perspective...

When my son and I decided to start collecting state quarters about four years ago, we had some difficulty finding certain states from circulation (TN, AR come to mind). Just for kicks, last week, my son decided to see how long it would take him to find all 56 quarters. It took him about 12 rolls to get 55 of the 56. Not only that, but he could find almost every state in BU condition.

The message? Massive numbers of squirreled-away rolls of State Quarters have been dumped back into circulation recently. Granted, he didn't try to get both mintmarks of every state, but there's been a flood of "new old" material coming back in. This could have a lot of implications for National Park quarters:

1) First, we're likely to see the same phenomenon--a LOT of hoarding of quarters that will be dumped later.
2) The recent dumping of State Quarters could mean lower mintages of NP quarters for the first couple of years--especially more unpopular designs such as Hot Springs.
3) Hard to imagine most these holding onto any real premium.

Still, I agree with above statements that it is possible.

BTW, want to know which quarter my son couldn't find right away?

Guam.

HIGHLOWLEAVES

Unfortunately, your investment theory is greatly flawed when an coin investor must "compete" with the US Mint !! These Hot Springs quarters will be available for at least a year. By that time, what other Parks coins with lower mintages maybe minted and hoarded by the Mint ? A very small investment maybe because you can still spend them a few years from now. IMHO, serious collectors may want to ungrade their Statehood quarter collections. My money is still on the forgotten WI Extra Leaf coins. So goes sure thing coin investments !!

packers88

I agree about the state quarters getting dumped on the market, frankly it seems like I'm seeing more and more lately. Once again, I don't believe in any state quarter or for that matter any park quarter for an investment, however I'm smart enough to know what could happen to a lowest minted quarter in over 5o years and likely the next 50 years from a series that could rival the statehood quarters.

packers88

<< <i>Unfortunately, your investment theory is greatly flawed when an coin investor must "compete" with the US Mint !! These Hot Springs quarters will be available for at least a year. By that time, what other Parks coins with lower mintages maybe minted and hoarded by the Mint ? A very small investment maybe because you can still spend them a few years from now. IMHO, serious collectors may want to ungrade their Statehood quarter collections. My money is still on the forgotten WI Extra Leaf coins. So goes sure thing coin investments !! >>



Remember the Mint could also stop selling anytime if current inventory is depleted and I could actually see them doing this to drive demand for future series. Even if these are available from the Mint for the next 11 months it still doesn't take away from the fact that only 29 million exist. As for future mintages coming in lower, I don't think you will see a d or p of any future park come in under 100 million. TOtal mintages in recent years for denvers and philly quarters have averaged about 1.3 billion from each mint, so divide this number by 5 and you have about 260 million from each mint. The mint wasn't producing 2.6 billion quarters a year for grampa joe and grandma suzzie, but instead to meet commerce needs. The same will happen in the future and the Mint will likely need around 2.5 to 3 billion quarters a year to meet commerce needs which translates to about 5oo to 600 million for each park or 250 to 300 million from each mint.

NitroCruiser

Who will be the big buyers... the TV coin shows of course. They will hype them, just as they did for the state quarters. Some will fall for the hype, just like the SQ's, and feel like they were taken now, that the SQ's complete sets can be had at low prices. I still see SQ's being hawked on late night TV (even layered in stunning, but value destroying 24kt gold).

I will be collecting the series... in my annual proof and mint sets. I don't see these becoming valuable in my life time, or my grand children's for that matter, unless some error becomes known. IMO the mint did a great disservice to itself with this program. People are burnt out. I be very surprised if a quarter of the vaunted "140 million new collectors" are remotely interested after many of them found out there state quarter collection is worth $25 after 10 years. The Mint would have done better to use the reverse of the half dollar to spark a bit more interest. That would have at least tied up more $$$ from circulating and benefited the economy. Putting what appears to be a toilet on the first coin didn't help matters either (might be an indicator of where your time and effort collecting these will go over the 11 years of the program, I could be wrong).

I'm sure some will be nice. If one likes and collects them, I hope I'm wrong and you do well. I'm definitely not hating on the coins. It is what it is. I just hope people collect them because they enjoy them without expectation these will "valuable" in the near future with such a great portion of them being put up. Time will tell, good luck.

MsMorrisine

I question, but do not know, the idea of the mint producing 600 million yellowstone or another national park quarter solely based on demand when only maybe 60 million Hot Springs quarters were made. Ten times the number "just because people want them" is a lot of money and these are primarily being made for circulation for commerce. I see commerce demand being the main driving factor.

By the way, there are only about 300 milion people in the USA. How many of them wer4e picking up the Alaska and Hawaii quarters? How many are picking up the Hot Springs quarters right now as part of demand? How are the prices of the Hot Springs quarters doing right now?

As I type this, I wonder how well even the nice designs of Yellowstone and others will spur new collector interest. Will the Yosimite and other designs I think are lacking dissuade new collectors?

pf70collector

29 million is not much. Seems odd that they won't take these off sale after Yellowstone.

Overdate

Even if they double or triple in price, the Hot Springs quarters may not make sense as an "investment." There will likely be a lot of inflation down the road, which will offset the gain in nominal dollars. Then there are the logistics - those rolls and bags will take up a lot of space, they have to be transported when bought and again when sold, and buyers will have to be found and prices negotiated when the owner is ready to sell. I really don't see how it's worth the effort for a coin that may or may not appreciate in value.

DeepCoin

For those who think an ugly coin gets no love, remember Capitol Visitor Center $5 gold coin. No one wanted them when they came out and now they are expensive. If the Mint only produces 39 million Hot Springs quarters, they will be disbursed throughout the FRB and who knows when and where they will surface.

Given the large inventory held by the FRB currently (thus the lack of demand for this coin) and as the economy comes back, so will coin demand. The Mint will then produce quarters in the 100s of millions again and this will be the key. It will never be extremely valuable, but I suspect the two coin uncirculated roll sets from the Mint will at least double in value by next year.

FYI, the other sleeper is the 2009 Unc set. The only place you can get 2009 copper lincoln cents is in that set. Under a million and how big is the demand? We shall see in a year or two, but I believe those sets will be winners as well.

touche

<< <i>FYI, the other sleeper is the 2009 Unc set. The only place you can get 2009 copper lincoln cents is in that set. Under a million and how big is the demand? We shall see in a year or two, but I believe those sets will be winners as well. >>



More like 2,500,000 including proof, Lincoln C&C, and 4 coin proof set.

tahoe98

<< <i>check out this link that tahoe put up in his thread after reading than lets here what you think?http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=776271 It really ticked me off after reading that the us mint is claiming that have put enough of these away to last a year, Its no wonder why there not showing up at any banks the mint has finally gotten smart and is hoarding them to sell at a premium instead of face value. I just can't see how this is right for those of us who have already bought the bags or rolls when they went on sale, they should not beable to just keep them in a vault........................... >>




...linky

Overdate

<< <i>

<< <i>FYI, the other sleeper is the 2009 Unc set. The only place you can get 2009 copper lincoln cents is in that set. Under a million and how big is the demand? We shall see in a year or two, but I believe those sets will be winners as well. >>



More like 2,500,000 including proof, Lincoln C&C, and 4 coin proof set. >>



The Philly and Denver copper issues will only be available from the 2009 Uncirculated set. The final mintage for each of the 8 cents in the set may be less than that of the 1931-S cent, and these are type coins to boot!