@stevek said:
Just a hunch, but I think the Ukraine war will be ending soon. Although I'm not about to try and predict an exact >time table. If/when it does end, I wonder how that will affect the price of gold? As the world scene would become a >lot more stable.
Definitely a bit bearish short-term but I still think we clear $3,000 in coming weeks/months.
@stevek said:
Just a hunch, but I think the Ukraine war will be ending soon. Although I'm not about to try and predict an exact >time table. If/when it does end, I wonder how that will affect the price of gold? As the world scene would become a >lot more stable.
Definitely a bit bearish short-term but I still think we clear $3,000 in coming weeks/months.
Admittedly, I thought the election result in November would decrease the price of gold, but it obviously didn't.
I agree with ya, that war's end would be bearish for gold, at least in the short term.
Long term, who knows? Tough if not impossible to predict herd mentality. That being said, credit where credit is due, a number of members here did accurately predict gold's continued rise.
Retail demand is not and has not been driving PM demand for the last few years. In the gold markets, as I understand it, the large central bank buying by various countries is dwarfing any retail effect. I don't think the war is having any effect on central bank purchases, but rather its due to global economic conditions which caused CBs to start buying after decades of selling. An end to the war and reduction/elimination of sanctions might free up the energy markets and result in lower oil which would theoretically help lower gold as well as headwinds from a strong dollar.
@stevek said:
Long term, who knows? Tough if not impossible to predict herd mentality. That being said, credit where credit is >due, a number of members here did accurately predict gold's continued rise.
Focus on supply and demand. The rest is short-term static.
As Goldminers has shown, supply is getting tougher although it looks like output increased in 2024. But unless CB's become net-sellers, demand is going up. Billions of people who didn't have enough food and had subsistence incomes are now low-income or middle-income. They can buy a few ounces of gold every few years.
That adds up !!
Check my posts on Indian demand since Independence in 1947...doubles every 12-15 years....50 tons 75 years ago.....now 800 tons....on the way to 1,500 tons by 2035.
What happens if any of these "influencers" talk about the beauty of Liberty Head or Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles ?
Supply is constrained....demand is soaring....I don't like using the 1970's as an analogy (too many 1-timers back then)...but the demand situation clearly has tailwinds and not headwinds.
@ProofCollection said:
Retail demand is not and has not been driving PM demand for the last few years. In the gold markets, as I >understand it, the large central bank buying by various countries is dwarfing any retail effect. I don't think the war is >having any effect on central bank purchases, but rather its due to global economic conditions which caused CBs to >start buying after decades of selling. An end to the war and reduction/elimination of sanctions might free up the >energy markets and result in lower oil which would theoretically help lower gold as well as headwinds from a strong >dollar.
Alot of that Central Bank demand filters down to the retail level. Difficult to separate, I agree, but clearly retail has been a net buyer globally.
Check out the demand for gold annually in India since 1947. Doubles every 12-15 years.
@ProofCollection said:
Retail demand is not and has not been driving PM demand for the last few years. In the gold markets, as I >understand it, the large central bank buying by various countries is dwarfing any retail effect. I don't think the war is >having any effect on central bank purchases, but rather its due to global economic conditions which caused CBs to >start buying after decades of selling. An end to the war and reduction/elimination of sanctions might free up the >energy markets and result in lower oil which would theoretically help lower gold as well as headwinds from a strong >dollar.
Alot of that Central Bank demand filters down to the retail level. Difficult to separate, I agree, but clearly retail has been a net buyer globally.
Check out the demand for gold annually in India since 1947. Doubles every 12-15 years.
Right, but the retail demand is fairly static. It may be increasing, but it's increasing at a steady rate, so retail price effects are difficult to notice.
@stevek said:
Just a hunch, but I think the Ukraine war will be ending soon. Although I'm not about to try and predict an exact time table.
If/when it does end, I wonder how that will affect the price of gold? As the world scene would become a lot more stable.
Certainly could be things in the works to bring it to an end. But not sure that it will be that bearish on gold.... other things are likely driving that price of gold.
Total gold demand rose 1% on-year to an all-time high of 4,974.5 metric tons, the World Gold Council said Wednesday in a new report on gold-demand trends. Gold jewelry is still the largest demand component, but it was the outlier: annual consumption dropped 11% to 1,877t. Central bank buying was the same as last year. Not an increase. Recently Chinese ETF demand has been huge. Citizens buying ETF's, and gold bars, and less jewelry.
Mine production may have actually set a record high beating 2018, but final data not 100% since a few companies have not reported 4th qtr. yet.
@ProofCollection said:
Right, but the retail demand is fairly static. It may be increasing, but it's increasing at a steady rate, so retail price >effects are difficult to notice.
Fair point. End-demand is always difficult to judge vis a vis speculators.
Also, I see that the market cap of the gold market is now $17 trillion. It has DOUBLED in 10 years and gone up 10-fold in 22 years.
Takes ALOT more buying to move something of that size UNLESS you have strong hands (i.e., few sellers) on the way up.
@ProofCollection said:
Right, but the retail demand is fairly static. It may be increasing, but it's increasing at a steady rate, so retail price >effects are difficult to notice.
Fair point. End-demand is always difficult to judge vis a vis speculators.
Also, I see that the market cap of the gold market is now $17 trillion. It has DOUBLED in 10 years and gone up 10-fold in 22 years.
Takes ALOT more buying to move something of that size UNLESS you have strong hands (i.e., few sellers) on the way up.
Here are a few charts that show the change in retail vs CB buying.
Gold down 1.76% on Friday. One of the few days that I thought would happen often because of events last November. But as some sharp members here have pointed out, demand for the metal seems to be stronger than the world stability factor at this time. Usually world stability, historically meant stagnant or lower gold prices.
I think this Ukraine war for various reasons, will be ending sooner rather than later. Ending that war I would think couldn't possibly help the price of gold to rise. But then again, perhaps many out there will continue to buy gold anyway?
History is a guideline to understanding gold prices, as well as many other things. However it's never 100% definitive. In any event, moving forward, I still believe that stocks as well as gold coins with numismatic value, are a better investment over say gold bars. We shall see.
Forget the short term noise. I focus on Armstrong's ECM capital money flows pointing to a reset through 2032. That's also the end of the current 78 yr Real Estate cycle due in 2033. You can't track or even chart gold on fundamentals. Armstrong ECM, Rambus TA charting, SKI about the only systems I've seen that faithfully seem to show the way forward.
Rambus shows up on 321gold this week with a nice missive showing the major waves of gold, 2 yrs, 5 yrs, 10 yrs, 15 yrs, 25 yrs. He's done a good job charting major wave consolidations and breakouts since I've been following since before 2010. Between Armstrong and Rambus, the only thing I miss is the SKI charting....now shuttered due to Jeff Kern's passing. In any case, Rambus' gold chart is quite compelling. He figures gold is just in the infancy of it's wave 5 of 5 breakout......the long pattern beginning back in 1962.....a 70 year pattern coming up to completion by 2033. One thing I learned many times over the past 20 yrs is that when Rambus is charting a bull market, he's deadly. He doesn't use Elliot Waves or anything as you can apply those yourself. His basic methods of breakout patterns and breakout targets based on previous legs has been very accurate.
Rambo's gold price estimate in log charting at $12,199 by 2033....which is basically duplicating the 1999-2011 log vertical rise from 2022-2033. He didn't put down a silver target but just using basic GSR support levels over the past 50 yrs (16, 32, 55, 68, 83) you can come up with potential silver targets of $762, $381, $222, $179, $147. Those high ones look whacky. Personally, it's hard to see GSR getting back to the lows of 1980 (ie 16) and 2011 (ie 32). So I'm thinking with GSR ramping up each time, 55 (Fib) is a likely target which hasn't been reached since the 1999-2011 bull market. That 55 GSR gives us $222/oz silver....which coincidentally is an important number in the SKI tracking school....and also 4X the $55 Fib. Even a doubling of the GSR's each time gives: 16, 32, 64. In that case the silver high would be $190 next time around. So $190-$222 fits nicely. On another chart Rambus notes $4052/$66 as intermediate gold/silver levels.....indicating a GSR of 61 as the next intermediate target in a couple of years. The only conflict is that Armstrong ends the current confidence cycle in mid-2028. Rambus sees it lasting to a 2033 low based on the gold target. Either or both could win. 2033 could even end up being a secondary high for gold or re-testing the 2028 higher before packing it in around 2032/2033.
@stevek said:
I think this Ukraine war for various reasons, will be ending sooner rather than later. Ending that war I would think >couldn't possibly help the price of gold to rise. But then again, perhaps many out there will continue to buy gold >anyway?
Don't overthink things in the financial markets, Steve. If the overwhelming forces for S&D line up favorably for higher prices, then don't fight it. Nobody has been buying gold because of Ukraine with the exception of a few days back in February/March 2022.
History is a guideline to understanding gold prices, as well as many other things. However it's never 100% definitive. >In any event, moving forward, I still believe that stocks as well as gold coins with numismatic value, are a better >investment over say gold bars. We shall see.
Stocks are always going to be best. Gold to me is a speculation that I don't count on. It's my disaster insurance -- ditto numismatic coins. I buy them because I love looking at them and the stories they encompass, not because of how much they'll be worth if gold goes to $5,000 an ounce in 10 years like I have thought possible.
@roadrunner said:
He figures gold is just in the infancy of it's wave 5 of 5 breakout......the long pattern beginning back in 1962.....a 70 >year pattern coming up to completion by 2033. One thing I learned many times over the past 20 yrs is that when >Rambus is charting a bull market, he's deadly. He doesn't use Elliot Waves or anything as you can apply those >yourself. His basic methods of breakout patterns and breakout targets based on previous legs has been very >accurate.
Rambo's gold price estimate in log charting at $12,199 by 2033....which is basically duplicating the 1999-2011 log >vertical rise from 2022-2033.
What is he saying about the S&P 500 or DJIA....and interest rates ?
If he is forecasting those moves for gold & silver, then something weird/extraordinary is happening with the financial markets OR his "waves" are foretelling some kind of geopolitical or financial clash that dwarfs economic sense or projections from today.
Tough to beat the 1970's: Watergate....end of Vietnam War....Cold War rising....end of fixed exchange rates.....double-digit inflation....recession....gas lines...Energy Crisis....sweaters and thermostats...gold floating and then rising and then soaring...and all of this OVER once Reagan got sworn in by 1981.
Tough to beat the 1970's: Watergate....end of Vietnam War....Cold War rising....end of fixed exchange rates.....double-digit inflation....recession....gas lines...Energy Crisis....sweaters and thermostats...gold floating and then rising and then soaring...and all of this OVER once Reagan got sworn in by 1981.
Good time to go to college.
And that the problem. That demographic had no responsibilities and nothing to lose. They were 15 to 30 years old...too young to know life, no assets to lose and nothing to sacrifice. Now they are 65 to 80 years old and think they know best. The last 45 years--years that shaped their lives--were the easiest this country has ever seen. They don't realize they have been the benefactors of that $36 trillion in debt.
@RedneckHB said:
They don't realize they have been the benefactors of that $36 trillion in debt.
The debt has to be serviced....but so did the death toll in WWI and WWII. The previous generations paid in ways that are unfathomable to today's generations.
Tough to beat the 1970's: Watergate....end of Vietnam War....Cold War rising....end of fixed exchange rates.....double-digit inflation....recession....gas lines...Energy Crisis....sweaters and thermostats...gold floating and then rising and then soaring...and all of this OVER once Reagan got sworn in by 1981.
Good time to go to college.
And that the problem. That demographic had no responsibilities and nothing to lose. They were 15 to 30 years old...too young to know life, no assets to lose and nothing to sacrifice. Now they are 65 to 80 years old and think they know best. The last 45 years--years that shaped their lives--were the easiest this country has ever seen. They don't realize they have been the benefactors of that $36 trillion in debt.
.
Technological innovation, not debt, is what led to higher living standards. The debt has eroded most (but not all) of the increase.
It used to be that one spouse in a household could stay home and do the domestic activities. Now, both spouses have work to stay afloat. The wide availability of "credit" (debt) has caused people to bid up the cost of buying a home, going to college, etc.
@RedneckHB said:
They don't realize they have been the benefactors of that $36 trillion in debt.
The debt has to be serviced....but so did the death toll in WWI and WWII. The previous generations paid in ways that are unfathomable to today's generations.
Those generations are all dead. And they paid at the time.of their sacrifice. However if a generation never sacrificed, yet incurred massive debt, who bears the burden of repayment? Or is there no burden as assets pass to the next generation? Wealth gap widen even further, or is that wealth diluted as it's disbursed among several beneficiaries?
Tough to beat the 1970's: Watergate....end of Vietnam War....Cold War rising....end of fixed exchange rates.....double-digit inflation....recession....gas lines...Energy Crisis....sweaters and thermostats...gold floating and then rising and then soaring...and all of this OVER once Reagan got sworn in by 1981.
Good time to go to college.
And that the problem. That demographic had no responsibilities and nothing to lose. They were 15 to 30 years old...too young to know life, no assets to lose and nothing to sacrifice. Now they are 65 to 80 years old and think they know best. The last 45 years--years that shaped their lives--were the easiest this country has ever seen. They don't realize they have been the benefactors of that $36 trillion in debt.
.
Technological innovation, not debt, is what led to higher living standards. The debt has eroded most (but not all) of the increase.
It used to be that one spouse in a household could stay home and do the domestic activities. Now, both spouses have work to stay afloat. The wide availability of "credit" (debt) has caused people to bid up the cost of buying a home, going to college, etc.
.
I didn't say anything about living standards, but you have stated previously that living standards are lower today, yet now you state they are higher. This is probably why engineers shouldn't comment on economics.
You see the way this works dcarr. We can go on forever with this. That what you want?
@GoldFinger1969 said: What and where coming from is this "recycled gold", GM ?
The large majority is from gold jewelry, some is also from electronics connections, circuit boards, and gold teeth. I believe a fair amount is also from much hated first spouses that get tossed into the scrap pile. LOL
@Goldminers said:
The large majority is from gold jewelry, some is also from electronics connections, circuit boards, and gold teeth. I >believe a fair amount is also from much hated first spouses that get tossed into the scrap pile. LOL
Are you still employed in the sector, GM ?
I was wondering what your colleagues (ex-colleagues ?) think about the industry as gold is knocking on $3,000.
The industry is certainly profitable but probably NOT as much as they would have thought when gold was $1,500 an ounce. Geopolitics is really a grenade on the industry's overseas CAPX projects.
@Goldminers said:
The large majority is from gold jewelry, some is also from electronics connections, circuit boards, and gold teeth. I >believe a fair amount is also from much hated first spouses that get tossed into the scrap pile. LOL
Are you still employed in the sector, GM ?
I was wondering what your colleagues (ex-colleagues ?) think about the industry as gold is knocking on $3,000.
The industry is certainly profitable but probably NOT as much as they would have thought when gold was $1,500 an ounce. Geopolitics is really a grenade on the industry's overseas CAPX projects.
The gold mining company stocks should still have more to gain, in spite of the geo-political risks. Costs are about 1/2 the selling price. Hard not to do OK in that environment if most of your earnings are in the right countries. There are safe locations to do business, and terrible locations.
The big things to look forward to this week are major gold reserve increase announcements, and cost/debt reductions.
Rambus charts on the stock markets, etc linked below. Other than expecting considerably more in the NAZ, his other stock index calls could go either way. Armstrong's ECM is suggesting bigger moves to come in the PM's on the way to summer 2028. He assumes that the major nations want to wipe out their sovereign debts by war, currency changes, revaluation, etc....whatever excuses it takes to wipe out old debts....because it can't be paid off.
And then we have the world wide otc derivatives numbering in the $2-$3 QUAD range. The "beauty" of Rambus' charting is that he doesn't look for "reasons" .....he just analyzes the chart as presented, which ideally already factors in all the inputs to gold and silver charts.
You can find Rambus' public charts as Rambus Chartology.
"The Fed is not in control. Inflation is ripping as the money supply expands, prices are rising, and gold will respond with further gains." - Peter Schiff
Freedom is like inflation: you lose 2-3% every year. Slow enough that you don't even notice.
@derryb said:
"The Fed is not in control. Inflation is ripping as the money supply expands, prices are rising, and gold will respond >with further gains." - gold">Peter Schiff
If he means we're not at 2% but closer to 3%, I agree.
If he's off on another "double-digit inflation is around the corner" that's nonsense.
Gold Strategy: Rally and Retreat.....We have been calling for some sort of consolidation, and last week’s pullback in gold prices fits with our view. Although gold is off to a strong start this week with investors eyeing the economic outlook and tariffs, we do think a lot is already priced in to gold as it remains around all -time highs. _We generally are buyers on pullbacks for the purposes of strategic risk -overlay allocations and think that there will be more such opportunities to come. _This most recent pullback was triggered by two primary factors in our view : profit -taking after gold hit new record highs and tariff-related macro shifts. While a strategy of strategically layering into gold on pullbacks makes sense, we suspect this will take time to play out over the course of the year.
In terms of feedback, we’ve actually been surprised at the appreciation that consolidation is possible, especially given some of the lofty price targets out there. There are certainly bulls, but we sense a growing hesitancy around all -time highs and some admission that perhaps gold has gotten ahead of itself.
Our conversations have centered on the difficulty of accurately modeling the admittedly nebulous factor of uncertainty, and that exhaustion may at some point take hold and present opportunities to layer into gold at better prices.
Generally, **we do not get the sense that investors are eager to chase gold higher without reason **, especially when it’s at all -time highs, but that there is some fear of missing out.
Given our view, it’s important to check in on the pillars of our call and some of the reasons why we think gold prices have understandably gotten ahead of themselves (in our view). Of the three pillars to our current view — uncertainty, central bank interest, and investor flows — it is the former two that have largely driven the rally year -to -date and are quite priced in. The undercurrent of central bank interest has continued, with uncertainty leading to outsized price outcomes – at least to our eye.
Investors , meanwhile , have partially come back , with the recent jump in inflows into ETP showing investors finally coming to the party and pushing total gold -backed ETPs to early 2024 levels in tonnage terms. Yet, we are well off the levels seen in 2022, and we recognize that there is a lot of work to be done over the course of the year to keep gold prices supported in this respect.
Trump has backed China into a corner with the tariffs. They are talking tough about war (in every form). They are likely going to ramp up their acquisition of gold and silver with stimulus. I don't think retail investors are driving the gold bus.
Tough to beat the 1970's: Watergate....end of Vietnam War....Cold War rising....end of fixed exchange rates.....double-digit inflation....recession....gas lines...Energy Crisis....sweaters and thermostats...gold floating and then rising and then soaring...and all of this OVER once Reagan got sworn in by 1981.
Good time to go to college.
And that the problem. That demographic had no responsibilities and nothing to lose. They were 15 to 30 years old...too young to know life, no assets to lose and nothing to sacrifice. Now they are 65 to 80 years old and think they know best. The last 45 years--years that shaped their lives--were the easiest this country has ever seen. They don't realize they have been the benefactors of that $36 trillion in debt.
.
Technological innovation, not debt, is what led to higher living standards. The debt has eroded most (but not all) of the increase.
It used to be that one spouse in a household could stay home and do the domestic activities. Now, both spouses have work to stay afloat. The wide availability of "credit" (debt) has caused people to bid up the cost of buying a home, going to college, etc.
.
I didn't say anything about living standards, but you have stated previously that living standards are lower today, yet now you state they are higher. This is probably why engineers shouldn't comment on economics.
You see the way this works dcarr. We can go on forever with this. That what you want?
.
Technology had led to a better quality of life, especially in the areas of medical/health, communications, and even things like indoor plumbing. In those areas, standards of living are higher now than they were many years ago. But overall quality of life is not better. Every year that goes by, the average person has fewer freedoms, is compressed into a smaller space, and has a greater debt burden to service.
What I wrote before, and what I will write again, is that standards of living are likely to go down from here. The mechanism by which standards of living decline is stagflation. And I think there is going to be more stagflation.
Anonymous financial spokespersons shouldn't be taken seriously when they have no credentials to present.
Tough to beat the 1970's: Watergate....end of Vietnam War....Cold War rising....end of fixed exchange rates.....double-digit inflation....recession....gas lines...Energy Crisis....sweaters and thermostats...gold floating and then rising and then soaring...and all of this OVER once Reagan got sworn in by 1981.
Good time to go to college.
And that the problem. That demographic had no responsibilities and nothing to lose. They were 15 to 30 years old...too young to know life, no assets to lose and nothing to sacrifice. Now they are 65 to 80 years old and think they know best. The last 45 years--years that shaped their lives--were the easiest this country has ever seen. They don't realize they have been the benefactors of that $36 trillion in debt.
.
Technological innovation, not debt, is what led to higher living standards. The debt has eroded most (but not all) of the increase.
It used to be that one spouse in a household could stay home and do the domestic activities. Now, both spouses have work to stay afloat. The wide availability of "credit" (debt) has caused people to bid up the cost of buying a home, going to college, etc.
.
I didn't say anything about living standards, but you have stated previously that living standards are lower today, yet now you state they are higher. This is probably why engineers shouldn't comment on economics.
You see the way this works dcarr. We can go on forever with this. That what you want?
.
Technology had let to a better quality of life, especially in the areas of medical/health, communications, and even things like indoor plumbing. In those areas, standards of living are higher now than they were many tears ago. But overall quality of life is not better. Every year that goes by, the average person has fewer freedoms, is compressed into a smaller space, and has a greater debt burden to service.
Unless you're referring to the national debt burden, personal debt burdens are for the most part, self-imposed to achieve a higher standard of living before someone can truly afford it.
What I wrote before, and what I will write again, is that standards of living are likely to go down from here. The mechanism by which standards of living decline is stagflation. And I think there is going to be more stagflation.
Aside from the freedoms which are largely a function of government, it's hard for living standards to go too much higher. As you mention or allude to even the poorest have indoor plumbing, electricity, transportation, food, basic healthcare, and unlimited access to information and entertainment. To go higher means more living square footage, higher quality food, better healthcare, less crime, etc. which are all areas where only incremental gains are left.
Tough to beat the 1970's: Watergate....end of Vietnam War....Cold War rising....end of fixed exchange rates.....double-digit inflation....recession....gas lines...Energy Crisis....sweaters and thermostats...gold floating and then rising and then soaring...and all of this OVER once Reagan got sworn in by 1981.
Good time to go to college.
And that the problem. That demographic had no responsibilities and nothing to lose. They were 15 to 30 years old...too young to know life, no assets to lose and nothing to sacrifice. Now they are 65 to 80 years old and think they know best. The last 45 years--years that shaped their lives--were the easiest this country has ever seen. They don't realize they have been the benefactors of that $36 trillion in debt.
.
Technological innovation, not debt, is what led to higher living standards. The debt has eroded most (but not all) of the increase.
It used to be that one spouse in a household could stay home and do the domestic activities. Now, both spouses have work to stay afloat. The wide availability of "credit" (debt) has caused people to bid up the cost of buying a home, going to college, etc.
.
I didn't say anything about living standards, but you have stated previously that living standards are lower today, yet now you state they are higher. This is probably why engineers shouldn't comment on economics.
You see the way this works dcarr. We can go on forever with this. That what you want?
.
Technology had let to a better quality of life, especially in the areas of medical/health, communications, and even things like indoor plumbing. In those areas, standards of living are higher now than they were many tears ago. But overall quality of life is not better. Every year that goes by, the average person has fewer freedoms, is compressed into a smaller space, and has a greater debt burden to service.
What I wrote before, and what I will write again, is that standards of living are likely to go down from here. The mechanism by which standards of living decline is stagflation. And I think there is going to be more stagflation.
Anonymous financial spokespersons shouldn't be taken seriously when they have no credentials to present.
.
Not sure what rock you are living under but the current standards of livin be BOOMIN™. Mentioning anything political around here is a no-no (at least for some of us it appears) but I do believe that current situations will lead to many declines for this once great nation. Nothing to do with stagflation, just pure stupidity. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
FWIW, standard of living is light-years better on every measure. Not agreeing with that is like saying we haven't advanced since Caveman days.
Basic household goods that cost X amount of hours of work in the 1950's now cost a fraction of that for better quality. Medical care is light-years better.
30 years ago, only The Rich had cell phones and HiDef TVs. Now, everybody does.
I don't see staglation for the U.S. if we don't screw up. China is in trouble demographically -- labor shortages out to 2060.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Basic household goods that cost X amount of hours of work in the 1950's now cost a fraction of that
Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Basic household goods that cost X amount of hours of work in the 1950's now cost a fraction of that
Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.
The average family in the 50's didn't need 5 new iphones every 6 months, netflix, pandora and tweeter subscriptions etc.
My wife and I both work however we can comfortably live on just about 60% of her salary. Almost half her earnings and 100% of mine go straight to savings. It's not rocket science just a little 1950's discipline. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@pmbug asked “Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.”
It’s a matter of changing expectations and lifestyles. If people were willing to live a 1950s lifestyle, they could do it now on a single income. In 1960, almost no one had an air conditioned house. Houses were much smaller. Car were less safe. We rarely went out to eat. Apart from a few business people, almost no one took a plane. A trip to Disneyland was a once in a lifetime experience, if at all. And who ever heard of a Disney cruise? Also, as Goldfinger1969 points out, there’s the whole issue of technology. No cell phones. Today, you can call across the world for almost nothing. Does anyone remember trying to make an international call in 1960! Then there’s all the free stuff. In the early sixties my parents spent a couple of hundred dollars on a World Book. It was a great thing and worth the price—when there was no Wikipedia. Also as Goldfinger1969 points out, look at healthcare. In spite of the sorry state of our diets and our chosen lifestyles, we are living longer. Far fewer pharmaceutical options back then. No robotic or micro surgery. On average, we are vastly wealthier now.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Basic household goods that cost X amount of hours of work in the 1950's now cost a fraction of that
Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.
This. And also everyone has less "space" than years ago. Larger houses on smaller lots. That is not really a higher standard of living.
PS:
My Dad bought a new Hotpoint brand refrigerator in 1956. It still hums along today doing its job - and never required one iota of maintenance. Our newer refrigerator only lasted 15 years.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Basic household goods that cost X amount of hours of work in the 1950's now cost a fraction of that
Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.
This. And also everyone has less "space" than years ago. Larger houses on smaller lots. That is not really a higher standard of living.
PS:
My Dad bought a new Hotpoint brand refrigerator in 1956. It still hums along today doing its job - and never required one iota of maintenance. Our newer refrigerator only lasted 15 years.
Verily!!! I have a 90 year old hammer that still works!!!
I'm currently sitting in my underwear buying bitcoins on my computer. If that's not improved standard of livin I don't know what is. #LightYears, BOOMIN™ THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@blitzdude said:
I'm currently sitting in my underwear buying bitcoins on my computer. If that's not improved standard of livin I don't know what is. #LightYears, BOOMIN™ THKS!
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Basic household goods that cost X amount of hours of work in the 1950's now cost a fraction of that
Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.
This. And also everyone has less "space" than years ago. Larger houses on smaller lots. That is not really a higher standard of living.
PS:
My Dad bought a new Hotpoint brand refrigerator in 1956. It still hums along today doing its job - and never required one iota of maintenance. Our newer refrigerator only lasted 15 years.
Our 1959 Thermador built in oven and warmer (manufactured in Los Angeles) gets used every day. I stockpile vintage parts for future repairs since replacement built in ovens won't fit into the space the current one occupies.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Basic household goods that cost X amount of hours of work in the 1950's now cost a fraction of that
Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.
This. And also everyone has less "space" than years ago. Larger houses on smaller lots. That is not really a higher standard of living.
PS:
My Dad bought a new Hotpoint brand refrigerator in 1956. It still hums along today doing its job - and never required one iota of maintenance. Our newer refrigerator only lasted 15 years.
Absolutely! The older type freon lubricated the refrigerator pump, so very long lasting. The new types of freon do not lubricate nearly as well, resulting in components wearing out much quicker. Even the 15 years was pretty good for a newer refrigerator.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Basic household goods that cost X amount of hours of work in the 1950's now cost a fraction of that
Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.
This. And also everyone has less "space" than years ago. Larger houses on smaller lots. That is not really a higher standard of living.
PS:
My Dad bought a new Hotpoint brand refrigerator in 1956. It still hums along today doing its job - and never required one iota of maintenance. Our newer refrigerator only lasted 15 years.
Absolutely! The older type freon lubricated the refrigerator pump, so very long lasting. The new types of freon do not lubricate nearly as well, resulting in components wearing out much quicker. Even the 15 years was pretty good for a newer refrigerator.
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Technically, our newer refrigerator was able to keep things cool for 15 years. But well before that, the door seals warped badly and parts broke off and the exterior. It seemed every week some new piece broke off the handle. Same with our built-in microwave oven.
PS:
Also, in terms of living standards, overall freedoms have been diminishing and that is another offset to today's supposedly higher living standards.
Comments
Definitely a bit bearish short-term but I still think we clear $3,000 in coming weeks/months.
Admittedly, I thought the election result in November would decrease the price of gold, but it obviously didn't.
I agree with ya, that war's end would be bearish for gold, at least in the short term.
Long term, who knows? Tough if not impossible to predict herd mentality. That being said, credit where credit is due, a number of members here did accurately predict gold's continued rise.
Retail demand is not and has not been driving PM demand for the last few years. In the gold markets, as I understand it, the large central bank buying by various countries is dwarfing any retail effect. I don't think the war is having any effect on central bank purchases, but rather its due to global economic conditions which caused CBs to start buying after decades of selling. An end to the war and reduction/elimination of sanctions might free up the energy markets and result in lower oil which would theoretically help lower gold as well as headwinds from a strong dollar.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Focus on supply and demand. The rest is short-term static.
As Goldminers has shown, supply is getting tougher although it looks like output increased in 2024. But unless CB's become net-sellers, demand is going up. Billions of people who didn't have enough food and had subsistence incomes are now low-income or middle-income. They can buy a few ounces of gold every few years.
That adds up !!
Check my posts on Indian demand since Independence in 1947...doubles every 12-15 years....50 tons 75 years ago.....now 800 tons....on the way to 1,500 tons by 2035.
What happens if any of these "influencers" talk about the beauty of Liberty Head or Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles ?
Supply is constrained....demand is soaring....I don't like using the 1970's as an analogy (too many 1-timers back then)...but the demand situation clearly has tailwinds and not headwinds.
Alot of that Central Bank demand filters down to the retail level. Difficult to separate, I agree, but clearly retail has been a net buyer globally.
Check out the demand for gold annually in India since 1947. Doubles every 12-15 years.
Right, but the retail demand is fairly static. It may be increasing, but it's increasing at a steady rate, so retail price effects are difficult to notice.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Certainly could be things in the works to bring it to an end. But not sure that it will be that bearish on gold.... other things are likely driving that price of gold.
Total gold demand rose 1% on-year to an all-time high of 4,974.5 metric tons, the World Gold Council said Wednesday in a new report on gold-demand trends. Gold jewelry is still the largest demand component, but it was the outlier: annual consumption dropped 11% to 1,877t. Central bank buying was the same as last year. Not an increase. Recently Chinese ETF demand has been huge. Citizens buying ETF's, and gold bars, and less jewelry.
Mine production may have actually set a record high beating 2018, but final data not 100% since a few companies have not reported 4th qtr. yet.
2024 Central Bank data:
Complete data:
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Fair point. End-demand is always difficult to judge vis a vis speculators.
Also, I see that the market cap of the gold market is now $17 trillion. It has DOUBLED in 10 years and gone up 10-fold in 22 years.
Takes ALOT more buying to move something of that size UNLESS you have strong hands (i.e., few sellers) on the way up.
What and where coming from is this "recycled gold", GM ?
scrap gold sent to the refiners things like 90% gold modern commemoratives
Here are a few charts that show the change in retail vs CB buying.
http://ProofCollection.Net
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Gold down 1.76% on Friday. One of the few days that I thought would happen often because of events last November. But as some sharp members here have pointed out, demand for the metal seems to be stronger than the world stability factor at this time. Usually world stability, historically meant stagnant or lower gold prices.
I think this Ukraine war for various reasons, will be ending sooner rather than later. Ending that war I would think couldn't possibly help the price of gold to rise. But then again, perhaps many out there will continue to buy gold anyway?
History is a guideline to understanding gold prices, as well as many other things. However it's never 100% definitive. In any event, moving forward, I still believe that stocks as well as gold coins with numismatic value, are a better investment over say gold bars. We shall see.
Forget the short term noise. I focus on Armstrong's ECM capital money flows pointing to a reset through 2032. That's also the end of the current 78 yr Real Estate cycle due in 2033. You can't track or even chart gold on fundamentals. Armstrong ECM, Rambus TA charting, SKI about the only systems I've seen that faithfully seem to show the way forward.
Rambus shows up on 321gold this week with a nice missive showing the major waves of gold, 2 yrs, 5 yrs, 10 yrs, 15 yrs, 25 yrs. He's done a good job charting major wave consolidations and breakouts since I've been following since before 2010. Between Armstrong and Rambus, the only thing I miss is the SKI charting....now shuttered due to Jeff Kern's passing. In any case, Rambus' gold chart is quite compelling. He figures gold is just in the infancy of it's wave 5 of 5 breakout......the long pattern beginning back in 1962.....a 70 year pattern coming up to completion by 2033. One thing I learned many times over the past 20 yrs is that when Rambus is charting a bull market, he's deadly. He doesn't use Elliot Waves or anything as you can apply those yourself. His basic methods of breakout patterns and breakout targets based on previous legs has been very accurate.
Rambo's gold price estimate in log charting at $12,199 by 2033....which is basically duplicating the 1999-2011 log vertical rise from 2022-2033. He didn't put down a silver target but just using basic GSR support levels over the past 50 yrs (16, 32, 55, 68, 83) you can come up with potential silver targets of $762, $381, $222, $179, $147. Those high ones look whacky. Personally, it's hard to see GSR getting back to the lows of 1980 (ie 16) and 2011 (ie 32). So I'm thinking with GSR ramping up each time, 55 (Fib) is a likely target which hasn't been reached since the 1999-2011 bull market. That 55 GSR gives us $222/oz silver....which coincidentally is an important number in the SKI tracking school....and also 4X the $55 Fib. Even a doubling of the GSR's each time gives: 16, 32, 64. In that case the silver high would be $190 next time around. So $190-$222 fits nicely. On another chart Rambus notes $4052/$66 as intermediate gold/silver levels.....indicating a GSR of 61 as the next intermediate target in a couple of years. The only conflict is that Armstrong ends the current confidence cycle in mid-2028. Rambus sees it lasting to a 2033 low based on the gold target. Either or both could win. 2033 could even end up being a secondary high for gold or re-testing the 2028 higher before packing it in around 2032/2033.
https://rambuschartology.substack.com/p/precious-metals-complex-impulsing
Don't overthink things in the financial markets, Steve. If the overwhelming forces for S&D line up favorably for higher prices, then don't fight it. Nobody has been buying gold because of Ukraine with the exception of a few days back in February/March 2022.
Stocks are always going to be best. Gold to me is a speculation that I don't count on. It's my disaster insurance -- ditto numismatic coins. I buy them because I love looking at them and the stories they encompass, not because of how much they'll be worth if gold goes to $5,000 an ounce in 10 years like I have thought possible.
RR, do you know what happened to Dave Nichols ?
What is he saying about the S&P 500 or DJIA....and interest rates ?
If he is forecasting those moves for gold & silver, then something weird/extraordinary is happening with the financial markets OR his "waves" are foretelling some kind of geopolitical or financial clash that dwarfs economic sense or projections from today.
Tough to beat the 1970's: Watergate....end of Vietnam War....Cold War rising....end of fixed exchange rates.....double-digit inflation....recession....gas lines...Energy Crisis....sweaters and thermostats...gold floating and then rising and then soaring...and all of this OVER once Reagan got sworn in by 1981.
Good time to go to college.
And that the problem. That demographic had no responsibilities and nothing to lose. They were 15 to 30 years old...too young to know life, no assets to lose and nothing to sacrifice. Now they are 65 to 80 years old and think they know best. The last 45 years--years that shaped their lives--were the easiest this country has ever seen. They don't realize they have been the benefactors of that $36 trillion in debt.
The debt has to be serviced....but so did the death toll in WWI and WWII. The previous generations paid in ways that are unfathomable to today's generations.
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Technological innovation, not debt, is what led to higher living standards. The debt has eroded most (but not all) of the increase.
It used to be that one spouse in a household could stay home and do the domestic activities. Now, both spouses have work to stay afloat. The wide availability of "credit" (debt) has caused people to bid up the cost of buying a home, going to college, etc.
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Those generations are all dead. And they paid at the time.of their sacrifice. However if a generation never sacrificed, yet incurred massive debt, who bears the burden of repayment? Or is there no burden as assets pass to the next generation? Wealth gap widen even further, or is that wealth diluted as it's disbursed among several beneficiaries?
I didn't say anything about living standards, but you have stated previously that living standards are lower today, yet now you state they are higher. This is probably why engineers shouldn't comment on economics.
You see the way this works dcarr. We can go on forever with this. That what you want?
The large majority is from gold jewelry, some is also from electronics connections, circuit boards, and gold teeth. I believe a fair amount is also from much hated first spouses that get tossed into the scrap pile. LOL
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Are you still employed in the sector, GM ?
I was wondering what your colleagues (ex-colleagues ?) think about the industry as gold is knocking on $3,000.
The industry is certainly profitable but probably NOT as much as they would have thought when gold was $1,500 an ounce. Geopolitics is really a grenade on the industry's overseas CAPX projects.
Freedom is like inflation: you lose 2-3% every year. Slow enough that you don't even notice.
The gold mining company stocks should still have more to gain, in spite of the geo-political risks. Costs are about 1/2 the selling price. Hard not to do OK in that environment if most of your earnings are in the right countries. There are safe locations to do business, and terrible locations.
The big things to look forward to this week are major gold reserve increase announcements, and cost/debt reductions.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Low retail premiums support the news reports that big players are buying tons of gold with rumored shortages in vaults and banks.
http://ProofCollection.Net
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Don't know the status of Dave Nichols.
Rambus charts on the stock markets, etc linked below. Other than expecting considerably more in the NAZ, his other stock index calls could go either way. Armstrong's ECM is suggesting bigger moves to come in the PM's on the way to summer 2028. He assumes that the major nations want to wipe out their sovereign debts by war, currency changes, revaluation, etc....whatever excuses it takes to wipe out old debts....because it can't be paid off.
And then we have the world wide otc derivatives numbering in the $2-$3 QUAD range. The "beauty" of Rambus' charting is that he doesn't look for "reasons" .....he just analyzes the chart as presented, which ideally already factors in all the inputs to gold and silver charts.
You can find Rambus' public charts as Rambus Chartology.
https://rambus1.com/2025/01/20/weekend-report-pm-complex-stock-markets/
"The Fed is not in control. Inflation is ripping as the money supply expands, prices are rising, and gold will respond with further gains." - Peter Schiff
Freedom is like inflation: you lose 2-3% every year. Slow enough that you don't even notice.
Hard to squeeze a $17 trillion market cap asset class. GME was $1 BB and the perfect storm.
Short squeezes of material upside are very rare. Shorts tend to be very accurate and more so than longs.
If he means we're not at 2% but closer to 3%, I agree.
If he's off on another "double-digit inflation is around the corner" that's nonsense.
From RBC Capital Markets, Monday March 3rd:
Gold Strategy: Rally and Retreat.....We have been calling for some sort of consolidation, and last week’s pullback in gold prices fits with our view. Although gold is off to a strong start this week with investors eyeing the economic outlook and tariffs, we do think a lot is already priced in to gold as it remains around all -time highs. _We generally are buyers on pullbacks for the purposes of strategic risk -overlay allocations and think that there will be more such opportunities to come. _This most recent pullback was triggered by two primary factors in our view : profit -taking after gold hit new record highs and tariff-related macro shifts. While a strategy of strategically layering into gold on pullbacks makes sense, we suspect this will take time to play out over the course of the year.
In terms of feedback, we’ve actually been surprised at the appreciation that consolidation is possible, especially given some of the lofty price targets out there. There are certainly bulls, but we sense a growing hesitancy around all -time highs and some admission that perhaps gold has gotten ahead of itself.
Our conversations have centered on the difficulty of accurately modeling the admittedly nebulous factor of uncertainty, and that exhaustion may at some point take hold and present opportunities to layer into gold at better prices.
Generally, **we do not get the sense that investors are eager to chase gold higher without reason **, especially when it’s at all -time highs, but that there is some fear of missing out.
Given our view, it’s important to check in on the pillars of our call and some of the reasons why we think gold prices have understandably gotten ahead of themselves (in our view). Of the three pillars to our current view — uncertainty, central bank interest, and investor flows — it is the former two that have largely driven the rally year -to -date and are quite priced in. The undercurrent of central bank interest has continued, with uncertainty leading to outsized price outcomes – at least to our eye.
Investors , meanwhile , have partially come back , with the recent jump in inflows into ETP showing investors finally coming to the party and pushing total gold -backed ETPs to early 2024 levels in tonnage terms. Yet, we are well off the levels seen in 2022, and we recognize that there is a lot of work to be done over the course of the year to keep gold prices supported in this respect.
Trump has backed China into a corner with the tariffs. They are talking tough about war (in every form). They are likely going to ramp up their acquisition of gold and silver with stimulus. I don't think retail investors are driving the gold bus.
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
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Technology had led to a better quality of life, especially in the areas of medical/health, communications, and even things like indoor plumbing. In those areas, standards of living are higher now than they were many years ago. But overall quality of life is not better. Every year that goes by, the average person has fewer freedoms, is compressed into a smaller space, and has a greater debt burden to service.
What I wrote before, and what I will write again, is that standards of living are likely to go down from here. The mechanism by which standards of living decline is stagflation. And I think there is going to be more stagflation.
Anonymous financial spokespersons shouldn't be taken seriously when they have no credentials to present.
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Unless you're referring to the national debt burden, personal debt burdens are for the most part, self-imposed to achieve a higher standard of living before someone can truly afford it.
Aside from the freedoms which are largely a function of government, it's hard for living standards to go too much higher. As you mention or allude to even the poorest have indoor plumbing, electricity, transportation, food, basic healthcare, and unlimited access to information and entertainment. To go higher means more living square footage, higher quality food, better healthcare, less crime, etc. which are all areas where only incremental gains are left.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Not sure what rock you are living under but the current standards of livin be BOOMIN™. Mentioning anything political around here is a no-no (at least for some of us it appears) but I do believe that current situations will lead to many declines for this once great nation. Nothing to do with stagflation, just pure stupidity. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
FWIW, standard of living is light-years better on every measure. Not agreeing with that is like saying we haven't advanced since Caveman days.
Basic household goods that cost X amount of hours of work in the 1950's now cost a fraction of that for better quality. Medical care is light-years better.
30 years ago, only The Rich had cell phones and HiDef TVs. Now, everybody does.
I don't see staglation for the U.S. if we don't screw up. China is in trouble demographically -- labor shortages out to 2060.
Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
The average family in the 50's didn't need 5 new iphones every 6 months, netflix, pandora and tweeter subscriptions etc.
My wife and I both work however we can comfortably live on just about 60% of her salary. Almost half her earnings and 100% of mine go straight to savings. It's not rocket science just a little 1950's discipline. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@pmbug asked “Are you sure about that? In the 50s, the average American nuclear family did very well on a single wage earner's income. Today, both parents need to work to enjoy roughly the same standard of living.”
It’s a matter of changing expectations and lifestyles. If people were willing to live a 1950s lifestyle, they could do it now on a single income. In 1960, almost no one had an air conditioned house. Houses were much smaller. Car were less safe. We rarely went out to eat. Apart from a few business people, almost no one took a plane. A trip to Disneyland was a once in a lifetime experience, if at all. And who ever heard of a Disney cruise? Also, as Goldfinger1969 points out, there’s the whole issue of technology. No cell phones. Today, you can call across the world for almost nothing. Does anyone remember trying to make an international call in 1960! Then there’s all the free stuff. In the early sixties my parents spent a couple of hundred dollars on a World Book. It was a great thing and worth the price—when there was no Wikipedia. Also as Goldfinger1969 points out, look at healthcare. In spite of the sorry state of our diets and our chosen lifestyles, we are living longer. Far fewer pharmaceutical options back then. No robotic or micro surgery. On average, we are vastly wealthier now.
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This. And also everyone has less "space" than years ago. Larger houses on smaller lots. That is not really a higher standard of living.
PS:
My Dad bought a new Hotpoint brand refrigerator in 1956. It still hums along today doing its job - and never required one iota of maintenance. Our newer refrigerator only lasted 15 years.
Verily!!! I have a 90 year old hammer that still works!!!
I'm currently sitting in my underwear buying bitcoins on my computer. If that's not improved standard of livin I don't know what is. #LightYears, BOOMIN™ THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
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You don't know what is.
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Our 1959 Thermador built in oven and warmer (manufactured in Los Angeles) gets used every day. I stockpile vintage parts for future repairs since replacement built in ovens won't fit into the space the current one occupies.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Absolutely! The older type freon lubricated the refrigerator pump, so very long lasting. The new types of freon do not lubricate nearly as well, resulting in components wearing out much quicker. Even the 15 years was pretty good for a newer refrigerator.
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Technically, our newer refrigerator was able to keep things cool for 15 years. But well before that, the door seals warped badly and parts broke off and the exterior. It seemed every week some new piece broke off the handle. Same with our built-in microwave oven.
PS:
Also, in terms of living standards, overall freedoms have been diminishing and that is another offset to today's supposedly higher living standards.
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