However, the key point to keep in mind is that once gold succeeds in breaking above the key $2100 level it’s on and we just had a clear demonstration of how important this level is on Monday when the “big guns” were brought in to stop it holding a breakout above this level – and they won’t be so successful in future.
Those darn "big guns", always seem to be busy suppressing the price of our everything......:roll. Welcome to conspiracies r us. No better place to seek investment advice then from the great Clive "tinfoil" Maund. THKS!
@blitzdude said:
Those darn "big guns", always seem to be busy suppressing the price of our everything......:roll. Welcome to >conspiracies r us. No better place to seek investment advice then from the great Clive "tinfoil" Maund. THKS!
For every "big gun" that is short....there are 5 that are long.
If any of you ever worked on a trading desk, you would know how ridiculous these conspiracies in moving prices more than a few minutes (if that) really are.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
If any of you ever worked on a trading desk, you would know how ridiculous these conspiracies in moving prices more than a few minutes (if that) really are.
@derryb said:
It's how gold got from $200 to $2000.
Interesting but flawed read.
To compare today's price actions to yesterdays -- coming off 4 decades where the price of gold was fixed/suppressed -- is ridiculous. All he did was apply the same 15x multiplier and say gold is going to $15,000 an ounce.
I'm bullish and I think reasonable rises based on supply and demand are how you forecast, not extrapolations from past decades.
What's more, a rise to that level by itself woudl result in demand destruction at about $5,000 an ounce (based on current elasticities) so who would be picking up the slack if jewelry demand gets crushed ? I doubt instititional or retail demand for gold could fill the gap. If there's a financial implosion, Treasury bonds are where you go.
Let me remind you all: in 1980, gold and Treasuries and Forex each traded about $1 billion daily. Today, gold trades about $50 billion daily.....Treasury bonds about $500 billion.....and Forex about $7 trillion.
Can you all see where the liquidity and volumes are ?
@derryb said:
It's how gold got from $200 to $2000.
Interesting but flawed read.
To compare today's price actions to yesterdays -- coming off 4 decades where the price of gold was fixed/suppressed -- is ridiculous. All he did was apply the same 15x multiplier and say gold is going to $15,000 an ounce.
I'm bullish and I think reasonable rises based on supply and demand are how you forecast, not extrapolations from past decades.
What's more, a rise to that level by itself woudl result in demand destruction at about $5,000 an ounce (based on current elasticities) so who would be picking up the slack if jewelry demand gets crushed ? I doubt instititional or retail demand for gold could fill the gap. If there's a financial implosion, Treasury bonds are where you go.
Let me remind you all: in 1980, gold and Treasuries and Forex each traded about $1 billion daily. Today, gold trades about $50 billion daily.....Treasury bonds about $500 billion.....and Forex about $7 trillion.
Can you all see where the liquidity and volumes are ?
Might this have something to do with a continuously growing endless supply of paper dollar products and very limited supply of metal? Yea, it just might. LOL
@derryb said:
Might this have something to do with a continuously growing endless supply of paper dollar products and very >
limited supply of metal? Yea, it just might. LOL
No, it has to do with the fact that more people want greater liquidity in predictable fixed income than a commodity subject to high volatility.
"The other key buyers are central banks (CBs), and they have shown a more meaningful step-up in buying
than other investors, in particular in emerging and developing economies. CBs typically allocate a portion
of reserves to gold (averaging 14% of reserves globally). CBs are some of the biggest asset owners in the
world and hence when they begin to buy gold, it can have a big impact on the market. There are a few
reasons gold holdings are attractive for CBs. Again there is the benefit of diversification. The goal for many
CBs in emerging markets is to be able to stabilize the currency during periods of market instability. Having
a sufficient gold position can act as a deterrent against speculative attacks, and in more extreme downside
scenarios gold can be deployed relatively easily. From a geopolitical perspective, gold has the advantage
of not being any other country's liability, unlike forex.
Not all CB heads are fans of gold. For the developed world, gold is mostly a legacy asset. In his book
"Value(s)" in 2021, former head of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, Mark Carney, called the BoE
gold holdings a "vestige of a bygone era" (this gold is not entirely the BoE's - we note that a large number
of foreign CBs still vault gold at the BoE). Some CBs did enact policies to reduce gold holdings over the
last 30 years. In 1999 the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had over 2,500t of gold and ultimately decided
it didn't need any more than 1,300t. A large gold sale required a change to the Swiss constitution, but
was ultimately enacted. Sales began into a terrible market environment with Austria, Australia, Belgium,
Canada, Luxembourg, Czech Republic and India all selling gold already. Ultimately a number of CBs signed
an agreement to limit sales at 400 tonnes over the ensuing five years. A general western world sell down
continued until 2009. Then came the financial crisis and the emergence of unconventional monetary policy,
which essentially put an end to developed market CB gold sales. These CBs haven't been buying, but rather
have held their gold holdings flat ever since. The buying has come from emerging and developing market
CBs who have been steadily adding gold to reserves. The financial crisis therefore acted as a major turning
point for gold holdings in global central bank portfolios."
It is painfully trying to break $2200. It feels like someone drowning with a glass plate at the surface of the water. Mind you I actually drowned. It is not a good way to go.
@Clackamas1 said:
It is painfully trying to break $2200.
It's holding pretty close, last time we spiked to $2,150 intraday and corrected back down sharply. This time we're holding near a major resistance level at $2,200.
Compared to NVidia stock, real estate, and even Crypto, gold prices have been somewhat lackluster recently. After watching this market for decades, we feel very strongly that this is about to change.
As a financial writer you're not supposed to make predictions, especially about the price of gold. It's just too hard to be right.
But we're going to go out on the limb here...
Our gold price target for this year is $3000. And if it hits $3000, the world will pile on and $4000 will be probable.
Let's put it this way...
It's much easier for us to see gold at $4000, than Bitcoin at $100,000. But the gold price is not the number you should watch.
Remember this - the number you want to increase is the number of ounces you own."
Compared to NVidia stock, real estate, and even Crypto, gold prices have been somewhat lackluster recently. After watching this market for decades, we feel very strongly that this is about to change.
As a financial writer you're not supposed to make predictions, especially about the price of gold. It's just too hard to be right.
But we're going to go out on the limb here...
Our gold price target for this year is $3000. And if it hits $3000, the world will pile on and $4000 will be probable.
Let's put it this way...
It's much easier for us to see gold at $4000, than Bitcoin at $100,000. But the gold price is not the number you should watch.
Remember this - the number you want to increase is the number of ounces you own."
He doesn't understand what's going on with Bitcoin if he's making that statement.
But regarding gold, the reality is that every commodity and sector has its day and its bubbles. Gold and silver haven't been "hot" in a very long time and they are certainly due for a bull cycle. It's really the culmination of timing, US Dollar value, and market dynamics. The situation is certainly ripe.
I use spot, that's what the real world uses to buy/sell physical bullion. Futures prices are irrelevant in the physical world unless you just like to blow smoke up the ole caboose. $2236 was the high today, currently $2233. RGDS!
Comments
Cash and futures trading is very illiquid overnight, let's see where it ends up in NY/London in a few hours.
Not today
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Now what happened here?
Gold $1977.
irrational exuberance?
I don't see how gold can't keep going up? Governments, all of them, are addicted to printing money.
.
The reason that gold will continue going up is BECAUSE governments - all of them - are addicted to printing money.
I knew it would happen.
Gold up $43 as the Fed was quite dovish....might make another run at $2,150.
However, the key point to keep in mind is that once gold succeeds in breaking above the key $2100 level it’s on and we just had a clear demonstration of how important this level is on Monday when the “big guns” were brought in to stop it holding a breakout above this level – and they won’t be so successful in future.
https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=6598
I wish I knew how to downsize images
Those darn "big guns", always seem to be busy suppressing the price of our everything......:roll. Welcome to conspiracies r us. No better place to seek investment advice then from the great Clive "tinfoil" Maund. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
For every "big gun" that is short....there are 5 that are long.
If any of you ever worked on a trading desk, you would know how ridiculous these conspiracies in moving prices more than a few minutes (if that) really are.
Alternative facts brother, alternative facts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
$15,000 gold
It's how gold got from $200 to $2000.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Interesting but flawed read.
To compare today's price actions to yesterdays -- coming off 4 decades where the price of gold was fixed/suppressed -- is ridiculous. All he did was apply the same 15x multiplier and say gold is going to $15,000 an ounce.
I'm bullish and I think reasonable rises based on supply and demand are how you forecast, not extrapolations from past decades.
What's more, a rise to that level by itself woudl result in demand destruction at about $5,000 an ounce (based on current elasticities) so who would be picking up the slack if jewelry demand gets crushed ? I doubt instititional or retail demand for gold could fill the gap. If there's a financial implosion, Treasury bonds are where you go.
Let me remind you all: in 1980, gold and Treasuries and Forex each traded about $1 billion daily. Today, gold trades about $50 billion daily.....Treasury bonds about $500 billion.....and Forex about $7 trillion.
Can you all see where the liquidity and volumes are ?
1st hand proof and actual experience. You are there. No substitute.
Might this have something to do with a continuously growing endless supply of paper dollar products and very limited supply of metal? Yea, it just might. LOL
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
not 2150, but not 1950.
I'm satisfied here for now.
how many trillions in interest will we owe in the next 2 years?
And all that interest goes into the hands of the private sector and the wheels of the economy keep on rolling.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And all that interest comes from the pockets of taxpayers and a shrinking middle class keeps on growing. Debt is good only for bankers.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
No, it has to do with the fact that more people want greater liquidity in predictable fixed income than a commodity subject to high volatility.
Tax rates are the lowest they've ever been and most don't even pay taxes. Gotta love collecting interest!!!
And now some have have 25-30% gains in just 7 weeks.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What is your source?
New ATH this morning $2157.5 Gold Futures contract.
$2,159.80
I knew it would happen.
$2,160.00
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Over $2200 now.
"The other key buyers are central banks (CBs), and they have shown a more meaningful step-up in buying
than other investors, in particular in emerging and developing economies. CBs typically allocate a portion
of reserves to gold (averaging 14% of reserves globally). CBs are some of the biggest asset owners in the
world and hence when they begin to buy gold, it can have a big impact on the market. There are a few
reasons gold holdings are attractive for CBs. Again there is the benefit of diversification. The goal for many
CBs in emerging markets is to be able to stabilize the currency during periods of market instability. Having
a sufficient gold position can act as a deterrent against speculative attacks, and in more extreme downside
scenarios gold can be deployed relatively easily. From a geopolitical perspective, gold has the advantage
of not being any other country's liability, unlike forex.
Not all CB heads are fans of gold. For the developed world, gold is mostly a legacy asset. In his book
"Value(s)" in 2021, former head of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, Mark Carney, called the BoE
gold holdings a "vestige of a bygone era" (this gold is not entirely the BoE's - we note that a large number
of foreign CBs still vault gold at the BoE). Some CBs did enact policies to reduce gold holdings over the
last 30 years. In 1999 the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had over 2,500t of gold and ultimately decided
it didn't need any more than 1,300t. A large gold sale required a change to the Swiss constitution, but
was ultimately enacted. Sales began into a terrible market environment with Austria, Australia, Belgium,
Canada, Luxembourg, Czech Republic and India all selling gold already. Ultimately a number of CBs signed
an agreement to limit sales at 400 tonnes over the ensuing five years. A general western world sell down
continued until 2009. Then came the financial crisis and the emergence of unconventional monetary policy,
which essentially put an end to developed market CB gold sales. These CBs haven't been buying, but rather
have held their gold holdings flat ever since. The buying has come from emerging and developing market
CBs who have been steadily adding gold to reserves. The financial crisis therefore acted as a major turning
point for gold holdings in global central bank portfolios."
Where are you seeing $2,200? April Comex futures and Kitco Bid aren't there.........
Oh, nevermind, Comex April touched it on Friday, but I'd consider Kitco Spot Bid to be a bit more representative.
I knew it would happen.
Yep spot never hit $2200, only the April futures.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
It is painfully trying to break $2200. It feels like someone drowning with a glass plate at the surface of the water. Mind you I actually drowned. It is not a good way to go.
The pros track the futures contract.
It's holding pretty close, last time we spiked to $2,150 intraday and corrected back down sharply. This time we're holding near a major resistance level at $2,200.
$3,000 before $1,400...the next $800 is UP !!!
WGC guy on X/Twitter says India added/bought another 5 tons of gold in February.
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
David Hall says:
"Okay...
Compared to NVidia stock, real estate, and even Crypto, gold prices have been somewhat lackluster recently. After watching this market for decades, we feel very strongly that this is about to change.
As a financial writer you're not supposed to make predictions, especially about the price of gold. It's just too hard to be right.
But we're going to go out on the limb here...
Our gold price target for this year is $3000. And if it hits $3000, the world will pile on and $4000 will be probable.
Let's put it this way...
It's much easier for us to see gold at $4000, than Bitcoin at $100,000. But the gold price is not the number you should watch.
Remember this - the number you want to increase is the number of ounces you own."
End Systemic Elitism - It Takes All Of Us
He doesn't understand what's going on with Bitcoin if he's making that statement.
But regarding gold, the reality is that every commodity and sector has its day and its bubbles. Gold and silver haven't been "hot" in a very long time and they are certainly due for a bull cycle. It's really the culmination of timing, US Dollar value, and market dynamics. The situation is certainly ripe.
They average about 800 tons annually so the norm (unseasonally adjusted) is about 65 tons monthly.
No. This was the their central bank adding to reserves, not the private market importing for jewelry.
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
That would only be 60 tons a year for the central bank. Not a game-changer, for sure.
That would only be 60 tons a year for the central bank. Not a game-changer, for sure.
Until it does become a game changer. The aggregate purchases by central banks aren't trivial.
The arbitrage between East and West continues.
I knew it would happen.
$2,222.10
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
$2,240 on COMEX.
$2,240 on Comex isn't relevant unless you have a few futures contracts and plan to take delivery.
I knew it would happen.
It is still a valid price quote for gold and as I understand, is the basis at least in some aspect for all other price quotes or markets.
I only update the title on $50 milestones, we just crossed $2250.
What is supposed to be used? The quotes online all seem to use it. Is there a link to a spot price quote? BTW $2255 yeah baby.
Kitco uses New York Spot price. Goldprice.org also quotes spot pricing.
I knew it would happen.
I use spot, that's what the real world uses to buy/sell physical bullion. Futures prices are irrelevant in the physical world unless you just like to blow smoke up the ole caboose. $2236 was the high today, currently $2233. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Nvm
Now over $2300.
Weird, I'm showing intraday high of $2281. Where's me's gold? RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Who Is Behind The Gold Buying ?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt