Is it possible to use unfilled want list statistics to calculate an expected rise in the coin market

Longacre

First, it is a numismatic fact that the coin world is immune from the recession, and the market knows no top. I always hear that there are not enough good coins to buy in the marketplace, and there is a lot of pent up demand. I was hoping to use some formulaic approach to calculating an expected rise in prices. For example, a dealer's blog mentioned the following:

"The coins can be PCGS +, CAC, non CAC etc. We are not finding many coins available to fill our massive Wants Lists! Other dealers make claims like that, we legitmately have the substantial Want Lists. A low ball guess, if we could fill even 1/4 of what we need-that would equal $10 million dollars minimum!"


Is there any way to extrapolate this $10 million figure over the assumed annual sales of this particular dealer, and then apply that ratio to the overall market, taking into account the coins that this dealer normally deals in, resulting in coins that are almost guaranteed to rise in value? I was hoping some of the statistics guys on the forum can comment on this theory.

RYK

The only extrapolation I can make is that if said dealer could fill four fourths (100%), that would equal $40 million minimum. I do not, for one second, doubt the claim. There is a lot of pent up demand, but I wonder what happens to that demand if:

1. A lot of great coins suddenly show up on the market (making rare coins seem anything but rare)

2. A lot of time passes (and other interests develop or the money is spent elsewhere)

roadrunner

That pent up demand of $10 MILL+ are for coins that are in such high demand that they routinely don't come to market and when they do, you can often name your own price if the quality is there. I'm sure that within that $10 MILL+ are all the PCGS MS65/66/67 CAC bust dimes, quarters, halves, and dollars you can find. Well good luck with that list. Unfortunately such lists are unrealistic and only reflect a tiny portion of the rare coin market. The pool of what are considered "great" coins has been shrinking ever since 1989. Back then a MS65 or PF66 3c nickel was considered a "great" coin with great potential. Today I'm not even sure if a MS67 or PF68 would qualify. As the number of coins graded has increased the portion of those that are truly worthwhile has been steadily shrinking.

As far as want lists being a worthwhile gauge of anything I'd say no. Want lists are generally ignored by dealers with possibly the exception of slower moving generic stuff or dreck. And at the first sign of resistance of a customer not willing to shell out for a want list coin pretty much recycles their list to the bottom of the pile or into the trash bin. Collector's want lists typically include coins that are hard to find. Those same ones tend to show up on everyone's want lists thus making such lists almost self-defeating as each potential owner helps drive up the price on themselves. I wonder how many dozens of want lists include F-VF 1872-s or 1901-s quarters? Basically those coins write their own tickets whether to other dealers or collectors as the line is long.

My own experience with wants lists over the years is that once received by a dealer it is often scanned against what's in inventory and then forgotten about. During weaker market periods they might get dredged up once again but are soon discarded as before. I think for most dealers want lists are a good one time cold-calling event but in general are more of a hassle. They don't need to be told that J6P is looking for a Fine 1901-s quarter......priced at 5% over greysheet bid of course....lol.

roadrunner

jmcu12

Wouldn't we need to obtain those want lists in order to respond farther.


I do think that you might be able to calculate a possible rise but without more information it, like all other speculation, is just a guessing game.

Coinosaurus

Look at it this way.....if you had $10M fall out of the sky for rare coin purchases, what would you be buying? Not dreck, that's for sure.....

Billet7

I think it depends on what items you are talking about. As far as common rarities go, I think you might be right. If the number of wantlist inquiries increases, I would imagine the popularity of those coins are also increasing...ergo, a rise in said values. One could possibly figure out the predicted rise in value for, say a 1909-S VDB.

You would run into problems if the dealer is a specialist. Since people who specialize tend to deal with the esoteric, you might not get an accurate read on a want-list prediction. A specialist dealer might have ten different people looking for an 1825 B-1 quarter, but one else in the coin market would have similar want list demand, so the price never increases. If everyone in the market were looking for one, then you could predict a rise in the market.

Ultra rarities would be a whole different ball of wax. Since the majority of collectors can't afford them, they would not be on many want lists. Additionally, those that buy those types of coins usually buy at auction or through "connections" with other collectors or dealers. (Like the dealers build the collection and not the collector...cough..Legend...cough.) In these ways the number of people that have the item on a want list is not really an indication of what the price will bring. It just isn't a realistic measure. After all, at auction, all you have to have is two people that really want a certain ultra-rarity, and the price can get out of control. The very rich coupled with unpredictability, passion and coincidence tend to rule the higher levels of coin collecting, not the average collector.

Just my thoughts.

P.S. I have learned one thing about want-lists. It isn't always a good idea to tell more than one dealer that you are looking for a specific coin. Sometimes you end up paying way more for the coin because the various dealers had to fight over who is going to offer you the coin, even though they were both bidding for the same person. Food for thought.

2manycoins2fewfunds

Most likely those 'Wanted to Buy' lists would be closely guarded proprietary info unlikely to be shared.