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Halladay bet

thehallmarkthehallmark Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
I was flappin my gums at work about how I thought Halladay would have a sub 2.00 ERA this year in quadruple-A. A Cubs fan offered me one of two bets and I have to decide which one to take before his third start. If Halladay starts fewer than 25 games, either bet is cancelled.

Bet#1 -- I take Halladay's ERA versus any four NL pitchers he chooses for even money. Halladay would have to beat three of the four for me to win the bet.
Bet#2 -- I get 9-2 on the money for max $100 and Halladay has to have 2.00 or lower.

I'm tempted to bet $100 to win $450. Any thoughts?


edit to clarify bet#1: villain would pick four STARTING pitchers in the NL

Comments

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,659 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bet #1 is more realistic in my opinion. I mean bet #2 with an ERA UNDER 2? That is very difficult especially with him in a hitters park and switching to the NL...
  • jdip9jdip9 Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭
    All depends on your risk tolerance. I like the sub-2.00 ERA bet myself. He had a 2.79 overall playing in AL EAST last year, which is by far the best offensive division in baseball. Suprisingly enough, his ERA vs. the Sox, Yanks, and Rays was around 3.00 (I expected it to be higher before I looked). The 9/2 odds are WAY too tempting to pass up.

    I'm also assuming the sub-2.00 ERA includes the games already pitched, an not from this point forward.
  • thehallmarkthehallmark Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭
    It does include those two games. The guy is confident in his side of the bet, despite those two starts. Plus, I made my sub-2 ERA claim the day after The Trade, and he only responded with the bet offers last week...so he's honoring the first couple of starts even though it helps me more.

    Yeah, I think I'm taking bet#2. I don't often pay attention to the NL but this might give me a reason to look at box scores more often.

    gracias for the feedback.
  • DboneesqDboneesq Posts: 18,219 ✭✭
    Sure, the odds are tempting in prop #2, but UNDER 2.00 will be really tough ... I don't care who you are.

    I think #1 is a MUCH better bet. I know you can't do this, but I'd rather risk $450 on #1 than the $100 on #2.
    STAY HEALTHY!

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  • metsfanmetsfan Posts: 834
    #1 is a smarter bet. An under 2 ERA will be very tough, once he goes around the league once he will be a little easier to hit.
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  • larryallen73larryallen73 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭
    #2 is highly unlikely. I would only take that with slightly higher odds like 20-1.
  • metsfanmetsfan Posts: 834
    10-1 sounds fair on #2. Of course Halladay has never had an era below 2.00(for a full season), so it's hard to say what the odds should be.
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  • jdip9jdip9 Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭
    I have a feeling this thread will be revisted several times over the course of the season!
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,696 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No way will his ERA be under 2.00. Clemens is the only pitcher to have done it in the last decade, and we all know now how he mastered that feat. As good as Roy is, I'd be astonished if his ERA were under 2.25...it's a long season, he pitches in a hitter's park and he will be easier to hit once hitters face him a few times. If anything 9:2 odds are WAY too short..


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