2010 MPL POPULATION UPDATE REPORT

Steve

For the past few years at this time of the year I have reported certified population numbers for each of the nine matte proof Lincoln cents as shown on the online websites for PCGS, NGC and ANACS. As we all know only 15,314 of these coins were sold to collectors by the US Mint during the period of 1909 thru 1916. Of that total we now show a total of 5,065 of these coins reported as certified by PCGS, NGC and ANACS as of March 16, 2010. This is an increase of 142 coins certified from the 4,923 reported as of March 17, 2009.

I have created four Excel worksheets this year to report the information. I will be happy to send copies of these worksheets to everyone here who is interested in the details. Worksheet #1 is a summary comparison report which shows reported populations for each of the three third party graders for each of the nine dates as of April 14, 2004, March 29, 2007, March 13, 2008, March 17, 2009 and March 16, 2010. Worksheet #2 shows populations for 2010. This report is broken out by each of the nine dates and totals by each of the three TPG's. For each date the reported grade AND color designation (BN,RB,RD) the quantity certified is shown as well as the totals of ALL nine dates. Worksheet #3 and Worksheet #4 are the same information for 2009 and 2008 and were included with my information last year. With this information you can determine changes in certified quantities for each TPG by grade and color designation for each of the past two years. (ie) 2010 vrs 2009 and 2009 vrs 2008.

If you want this data, please send me an EMAIL to sjcohen730@aol.com and I will email the four worksheets to you as attachments. I am not aware of any easy way to do this by PM.

I will later provide another reply to this thread with some observations on this years analysis which I hope will be of interest.

Steve

soty27

Steve,

Fantastic work, thanks for sharing here on the boards. I will email you shortly to recieve the spreadsheets.


Chris

Steve

A few general observations about the numbers:

1909VDB pop went up 5 coins to 177 total. The increase was all PCGS with NGC remaining at 49 and ANACS at 23. We all know there are crossovers in those numbers and along with crackouts from prior years the "actual" number is much less than the reported 177.

The 1916 pop went up a net 3. PCGS+2, NGC-2, ANACS+3. Total 1916's in the pop numbers: PCGS 175,NGC 86, ANACS 49, Total 310

The other 7 dates gained between 13 and 25 coins each.

An interesting fact is the RED MPL's in the population. Currently, they are 945 of the 5,065. Last year they were 941 and two years ago 937. There are some swings between dates but it is interesting that the NET increase in RED MPL's is only 8 coins in two years. I should mention that in going thru the details by each TPG and by grade and color designation it is evident to me that some specific populations did in fact go DOWN year over year. I have assumed that fact if labels from cracked out or crossed coins were returned to the original TPG.

I believe ANACS reported population numbers had been flawed, especially last year when their reported counts remained exactly what they were the year before. This year they reported grading 28 coins to 812 from 784. It is probable that this 28 number represents two years grading. They had an increase of 14 coins between 2007 and 2008 from 770 to 784.

As I mentioned in the original post, if you are interested in the details, please send me an EMAIL to sjcohen730@aol.com and I will email you the 4 excel reports.

Steve

soty27

I can attest that I am responsible for one of the three 1916 mpl gains at pcgs, crossed from an ngc 66 to pcgs 65

ambro51

I think your data is probably reflecting resubmissions to a degree.

In fact, I feel that ALL TPG population numbers must be viewed in that way.

Steve

<< <i>I think your data is probably reflecting resubmissions to a degree.

In fact, I feel that ALL TPG population numbers must be viewed in that way. >>









Steve

lusterlover

My intention here is not to start a debate, but I think you need to knock down the 5065 number by at least 20-30% to account for crackouts and crossovers. I have crossed a couple (still have some labels) and some I bought I know for a fact were tried and cracked several times and the labels were not submitted. With these higher-priced MPLs, the % will be higher than normal. I think the real slabbed pop is in the 3000-3500 range. JMHO

waterzooey

I do not believe that my 1916 MPL is in your census. It was purchased RAW and at this point resides in a PCGS Genuine holder.



MPL set TruV iew

Steve

<< <i>I do not believe that my 1916 MPL is in your census. It was purchased RAW and at this point resides in a PCGS Genuine holder.



MPL set TruV iew >>



waterzooey,
You are correct. I do NOT have any PCGS genuine MPL's in my reports. The reason is that PCGS has not published them! I note that your set shows for the 1916PRBN that 34 coins are graded higher. That IS the population for all PCGS BROWN 1916 MPL's. I hope that PCGS will soon report on all the genuine coins they holder so we can include them in the totals. Just because the coins cannot be graded should not prevent them from being counted as part of the totals IMHO.
Steve

waterzooey

True... I will be cracking it soon and sending it to NGC. I believe the coin should grade and based on what I have seen in a holder the coin is equal or better than a lot on the market. Plus it is die two and that increases the amount of luster.... I like the coin

John

BigRick

Steve,

It might be easier for you to upload the files to a service like box.net (or a similar free online file storage service) and simply provide a link.

Great job btw!

Steve

<< <i>Steve,

It might be easier for you to upload the files to a service like box.net (or a similar free online file storage service) and simply provide a link.

Great job btw! >>



Roger,
I am only doing this with the MPL's and as you know there are less than 150 graded each year. My effort is really not too much and I do it for my own information as well as to share. While I do follow the 1909VDB and 1916 on an ongoing basis, the other seven coins are really just updated by me once a year in the excel worksheet. The formulas are set so it doesn't take much time to manually put in the updates and create a new file.
Steve