Baby Boomers Generation in the next 15 years

akuracy503

The last of the Baby Boomers Generation should be getting to the retirement phase within the next 15-20 years.
What could this mean for the hobby? Will we see an influx of collections hit the market? Will we see an influx of collections be bought up from the market?

Is this the beginning of the end of our hobby?

Curious since I'd guess to say that baby boomers control the majority of our hobbies most valueable collections.

Or will 2012 save us and we'll never have to see the hobby crash.

GoDodgersFan

This is great news for collectors and not for investors. Some truly awesome collections will be
hitting all auction houses and only time will tell if there's enough $$$ out there to sustain values
in general.

JimmyAvenshola

Duh it's called supply and demand. Look into it.

otwcards

<< <i>Duh it's called supply and demand. Look into it. >>



Thanks for the Economics 101 lesson. Let us know what you learn on Day 2 of class.

I think the questions posed by akuracy are:

** Will there be a significant supply of collections coming to market?
** Will this supply be absorbed by the hobby?
** Will the supply exceed demand and cause a softening or collapse of prices?
** Will the loss of these collectors be supplemented by new collectors entering the hobby?
** Is the hobby doomed?
** Discuss.

There are two very notable collections that have survived their owners in the past two years. Significant as the collections are, neither was broken or has plans to be offered for sale by the heirs of either estate. I think this may be the case with regard to several other high profile collections.

I think the volume of smaller collections will increase in the coming years, but I doubt that we'll be seeing significant collections coming to auction month after month.

I am of the opinion that there will be enough supply to meet the demands of the aging collectors, but not so much as to saturate the hobby. The fallout may eventually come as the result of collectors upgrading with the influx of "newer" vintage material and realizing a decrease in the resale value of the "replaced" material they subsequently offer for sale.

As we progress, many that have basements full of "retirement" material (1990's to present) and "investment" cards of modern players will be the ones singing the blues. Just as a majority of the 80's material is worthless today, the majority of the 2000 material will be worthless in another 20 years. Can the same be said of the vintage material that is still relatively strong today?

metrotheme

There will be a large swell on the open market of items and not as many collectors to pick them up. I collect mostly autographs and have been collecting since the early 90's. All of the players that I have really aren't common because everyone was collecting them.

Think about all of the autographs out there that guys like Bobby Doerr, Bob Feller, Monte Irvin, etc. have signed. At this present time their autographs aren't that valuable. Even after they pass, there is going to be a ready supply of authentic items that they've signed. Are teenagers now romanticizing the era that these guys grew up in? There isn't going to be a mass exodus of collectors seeking out their signatures, but believe there is going to be a mass exodus of their signatures hitting the market as baby boomers look to clear space in retirement, or that their families sell their collections after they die.

This is different from the HOF'ers that died in the 60's, 70's and even 1980's when less people were hoarding ummm I mean collecting their autographs. Alot of those HOF'ers are in smaller supply, especially those from the 70's and 80's. Even modern players today have signed their names countless times. Go check out any of the autographing sites to see all of the signatures that went into the "supply" end of things as people post their totals from what they've acquired at Spring Training.

I think folks will be able to get what they want at a cheaper price, but also they will be selling their own collections at a cheaper price.

storm888

The US Census Bureau considers a "baby boomer" as someone
born between 1946 and 1964. The gross number of the class is
between 75-million and 80-million.

The early members of the group began retiring about 2005. By
2030, most all of them will be out of the work mix.

Predicting the future of trading-cards based on boomers' participation
in buying/selling involves lots of speculation.

The early retirees are leaving the work force wealthier than the later
rounds of seniors will. Thus, the first effects of the retirements will be
positive/neutral to the trading-card market; limited need to sell, might
start buying to recapture childhood memories and fill a hobby void. As
this group expires, their cards will come to market and will likely depress
many prices substantially.

The late retirees will be poorer than the first group. Much higher tax-rates,
greater monetary/price inflation, less asset-price inflation, an economy in
relative decline, and MUCH higher social-security/medicare contributions
will have a devastating shock effect on the group during the next 20-years.
This shrinking group will be paying for the retirement benefits of the earlier
retirees and will have less extra money to fund hobbies.

As the boomers drop out to rest, younger collectors will also be paying much
higher contributions to the SSI fund that bankrolls the retirements of the
older workers. This could result in a double whammy to the card market;
retirees and their estates selling, younger workers to poor to buy.

IMV, the financial future looks pretty bleak for most classes of trading cards.


.......................

Re: 2012

Each year, my calendar expires and I buy a new one.

The Mayans' civilization pinnacle simply expired before
they needed to make a new calendar.

The world did not end on December 31, 2009, and it
will not end in December of 2012 either.

New-agery hokum is fun, but it won't wipe us out and
prevent us from having to watch most card values decline.

stevek

<< <i>The last of the Baby Boomers Generation should be getting to the retirement phase within the next 15-20 years.
What could this mean for the hobby? Will we see an influx of collections hit the market? Will we see an influx of collections be bought up from the market?

Is this the beginning of the end of our hobby?

Curious since I'd guess to say that baby boomers control the majority of our hobbies most valueable collections.

Or will 2012 save us and we'll never have to see the hobby crash. >>



Your points are logical but ya never know with collectibles. I think the political climate weighs heavier on the value and demand even more so than the Boomers angle. I'm hopeful that America has gotten a taste of Socialism this past year and didn't like what they saw...and now has an awakening of how important are traditional conservative values to our country. So baseball being a traditional game, I believe it will grow in popularity...and as long as baseball remains popular and growing, I think card collecting could grow in popularity as well, hence increasing card values over the next 15 years.

But if socialism wins out, then scratch all that.

Stone193

I would never even want to guess at any of that.

I do know some are blaming the "boomers" for everything from global warming to the failure of social security.

To me it's all relative.

After the next world-wide depression and WW - there'll be another "boomer generation" to blame.

fiveniner

I was born in 1948 early boomer .I joined this circus because I love baseball and all the memories the cards bring back.I know my days as a collector are probably in its stetch run.I do not collect in order to get a fat profit from this HOBBY.It gonna be what it is.If you are in just to make a big bankroll you have made a serious mistake my freinds unless your collecting days started before the card boom of the early 80s.

72skywalker

<< <i>Duh it's called supply and demand. Look into it. >>



What is your problem on these boards. So far every thread you responded to has been a sarcastic remark. If that is all you have to comment on, do us all a favor and leave the site for good. We could all do without your comments.

Garabaldi

<< <i>Duh it's called supply and demand. Look into it. >>



Troll

OAKESY25

it's called burrito jimmy... look into it

otwcards

<< <i>Your points are logical but ya never know with collectibles. I think the political climate weighs heavier on the value and demand even more so than the Boomers angle. I'm hopeful that America has gotten a taste of Socialism this past year and didn't like what they saw...and now has an awakening of how important are traditional conservative values to our country. So baseball being a traditional game, I believe it will grow in popularity...and as long as baseball remains popular and growing, I think card collecting could grow in popularity as well, hence increasing card values over the next 15 years. >>



Politics? I thought this was a no-no!

Sounds like a FoxNews analysis/overdose...

stevek

<< <i>

<< <i>Your points are logical but ya never know with collectibles. I think the political climate weighs heavier on the value and demand even more so than the Boomers angle. I'm hopeful that America has gotten a taste of Socialism this past year and didn't like what they saw...and now has an awakening of how important are traditional conservative values to our country. So baseball being a traditional game, I believe it will grow in popularity...and as long as baseball remains popular and growing, I think card collecting could grow in popularity as well, hence increasing card values over the next 15 years. >>



Politics? I thought this was a no-no!

Sounds like a FoxNews analysis/overdose... >>



My comments were on topic for the thread...Comprehension of what is happening in the world overall, whether it's card values, or values of coins, precious metals, or other collectibles and things, is necessary to have the best chance of making accurate predictions.

otwcards

Sure they were...

Stone193

<< <i>

<< <i>Your points are logical but ya never know with collectibles. I think the political climate weighs heavier on the value and demand even more so than the Boomers angle. I'm hopeful that America has gotten a taste of Socialism this past year and didn't like what they saw...and now has an awakening of how important are traditional conservative values to our country. So baseball being a traditional game, I believe it will grow in popularity...and as long as baseball remains popular and growing, I think card collecting could grow in popularity as well, hence increasing card values over the next 15 years. >>



Politics? I thought this was a no-no!

Sounds like a FoxNews analysis/overdose... >>

Not sure what that means?

I would say - it's "anti"Fox?

Next you're gonna tell me you can cure all the evils of the world by taking money from the rich and gving to the poor?

DeutscherGeist

Look at the pre-WWII cards. Hardly anyone alive today has seen any of those players that played in 1911 or so. Are those prices good? Have they been holding steady the last 10 years? Who buys those cards?

The rationale about the baby boomers keeping the card hobby alive for the most part is interesting. As they leave their mortal existence behind, they are not being replaced by younger hobbyists. I get that rationale and it is a sound one, but not complete.

I guess collecting gold coins is the real win-win situation.

Let us look at stamp collecting. It has declined in the past decade. Are some of the most sought after stamps still holding steady value or have those even gone down in value?

Looking at the stamp hobby might help realize what can happen to the sportscard hobby.

akuracy503

Thanks for all the great responses, the experience and collective knowledge of this board is top notch.

It will be interesting to see what happens as the demographic cycle of collectors change, I believe it will take longer than 10-15 years before we really see any noticable differences from todays market trends/values.

One thing to note is that the generation of kids who collected in the late 80's and into the 90's at the sports collecting peak are now in their 30's for the most part and me being part of this generation am deeply drawn by the lure of cards I could not obtain when I was a kid.
I might be the minority from my generation but I see myself enjoying collecting for another 20-30 years, if there are at least another 1,000 cases such as mine should provide some sustained market value for the vintage stuff.

Values might soften but I think the demand will be there for the most part..
Fun topic.

MooseDog

One thing I haven't see discussed yet is the impact of baby boomer related "inheritances".

Many boomers have accumulated tons of wealth in real estate, stocks, and yes, collectibles. From my own personal experience in my area, there are scant few boomer kids and grandkids that share much in common with their parents these days. These kids will eventually inherit all that money and I'm of the belief they'll have no interest in the collectibles, hence they'll find their way back into the market.

Indy78

One thing to note is that the generation of kids who collected in the late 80's and into the 90's at the sports collecting peak are now in their 30's for the most part and me being part of this generation am deeply drawn by the lure of cards I could not obtain when I was a kid.

Great point. I don't think you're in the minority here. My youngest brother is about that age (29-30), and I remember that all his friends collected. In fact, I remember being a little surprised at the time that so many kids were into the hobby. So, I don't think the next 25-30 years will be an issue, it's beyond that time that I might be concerned about the demand if I were an investor.

PowderedH2O

I'm not so sure. When I was a kid, all the boys collected either baseball cards or comic books (or both!). I remember very well buying cards at any convenience store or drug store or dime store in town. I can remember about ten or twelve kids swapping 1976 baseball cards in school during recess. We must have had 5,000-10,000 cards out and we were all trying to make trades. We didn't care about how much a card was worth or anything. I know kids were still collecting in the late 80's. But now? I dunno. There are some, but not like the old days. The ones that are collecting are all talking about values of the cards and inserts and rookies. At $2-3 per pack, how many kids can afford it? So, is my generation the last of the big collecting generations?

redsfanman

Seems like two things have dramatically affected the hobby over the last 20 years or so: 1) mass production and 2) the internet (ebay). It will be intersting to see where it goes from here and if there will be dramatic changes in the next 20 years that will positively affect the market.

DeutscherGeist

If the sport of baseball can continue to be part of American culture, the card prices will sustain themselves. If the sport somehow grows more in popularity among the youth, it will ripple through the sportscard world in a positive way. The new generation of youth are so distracted with all the options of entertainment, hobbies or activities to choose from. We have seen a decline in sports, but a climb in video games and other electronic forms of recreation. The scales may shift back to physical activity or at least balance out.

I think the late 80s were truly the spike of interest in the hobby. Many collectors of that era may want to rekindle their childhood in some form when they are in their 40s (more financially stable). A casual collector may want a box of 1986 Topps or rookies of Henderson, Ripken, Mattingly, Strawberry or Canseco--stuff that they could not afford back then. The demand for 80s stars may increase a little with the possibility of casual collectors rejoining the hobby and looking for some pieces to display in their office or hobby room.

thunderdan

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Your points are logical but ya never know with collectibles. I think the political climate weighs heavier on the value and demand even more so than the Boomers angle. I'm hopeful that America has gotten a taste of Socialism this past year and didn't like what they saw...and now has an awakening of how important are traditional conservative values to our country. So baseball being a traditional game, I believe it will grow in popularity...and as long as baseball remains popular and growing, I think card collecting could grow in popularity as well, hence increasing card values over the next 15 years. >>



Politics? I thought this was a no-no!

Sounds like a FoxNews analysis/overdose... >>



My comments were on topic for the thread...Comprehension of what is happening in the world overall, whether it's card values, or values of coins, precious metals, or other collectibles and things, is necessary to have the best chance of making accurate predictions. >>



I don't have to turn on O'Reilly tonight because you just gave me a nice dose of Fox News. Truly I now better comprehend what is going on in the world.