Which is rarer - 1909 VDB MPL or 1864 No L PIC (Proof Indian Cent)

EagleEye

1909 VDB Mintage is, well - pick a number (1194, 600, 300). My guess is 300.
1864 No L Mintage is, also - pick a number (150, 300). My guess is 300.

One has a traditional mintage much higher than the surviving population and one had a traditional mintage much lower than the surviving population.

It seems to me they are of equal rarity in the populations and that the estimated minatge for both might also be the same - 300.

Any opinions?

BigRick

Is the 1864 a $200k coin in PR67RB?

ThePennyLady

That's an interesting question. I can tell you that I've personally seen more 1909 vdb MPLs than I've seen 1864 No L proofs, if that says anything.

Steve

<< <i>That's an interesting question. I can tell you that I've personally seen more 1909 vdb MPLs than I've seen 1864-L proofs, if that says anything. >>



Hi Charmy,
Of all the 1909VDB MPL's you've seen, how many were owned by dealers and how many were owned by collectors (approximately)
Please do NOT count any you may have seen that were NOT in a PCGS, NGC or ANACS holder unless you know for a fact that those examples displayed all three of the key diagnostics associated with the variety. Thanks for your input.

Steve

ChrisRx

It seems that there is almost always a 64' for sale. Good for me because I need that date.

BWRC

I believe the 1909 VDB Matte Proof is definately rarer than the 1864 No L Proof IHC. So I thought a good barometer for this question might be found in PCGS coin facts under the "Auction Prices Realized" link. Here is what I found

The 1864 No L PR IHC shows 170 appearances in the achives with an average price of $5,983

The 1909 VDB Matte Pr cent shows only 69 appearances in the archives with an average price of $12,641

BW

Edited to add: PCGS has graded a total of 104 VDB's to 144 for the 1864 No L Proof IHC. I am not sure what the accurate mintages of either coin is but this information and my personal experiences give the nod to the VDB.

EagleEye

So, either my estimate of 300 for the 1864 No L Mintage is still too low, or the real net mintage of the 1909 VDB is lower than 300. Maybe 200?

I don't think appearances or prices play a useful part in determining rarity. If a coin is undervalued, like the 1909 VDB was until 1995, then few come out to the market. When prices rise, I would expect more to come out. Either instance doesn't change the rarity.

BWRC

<< <i>So, either my estimate of 300 for the 1864 No L Mintage is still too low, or the real net mintage of the 1909 VDB is lower than 300. Maybe 200?

I don't think appearances or prices play a useful part in determining rarity. If a coin is undervalued, like the 1909 VDB was until 1995, then few come out to the market. When prices rise, I would expect more to come out. Either instance doesn't change the rarity. >>



That's probably true but the total of the amount graded for the two dates by PCGS should be a decent indicator of rarity. After 24 years of the coins coming in for grading: 104 for the VDB vs 144 for the 1864 No L PR IHC

ThePennyLady

<< <i>

<< <i>That's an interesting question. I can tell you that I've personally seen more 1909 vdb MPLs than I've seen 1864-L proofs, if that says anything. >>



Hi Charmy,
Of all the 1909VDB MPL's you've seen, how many were owned by dealers and how many were owned by collectors (approximately)
Please do NOT count any you may have seen that were NOT in a PCGS, NGC or ANACS holder unless you know for a fact that those examples displayed all three of the key diagnostics associated with the variety. Thanks for your input.

Steve >>



Steve, The majority of MPLs I've seen were in auctions or owned by collectors, though I have seen a few Brian had for sale as well. And possibly the reason I've seen more 1909 vdb's is because collectors and dealers will bring MPLs to me for possible purchase or just to show me more often, which I always appreciate seeing! For some reason, I haven't had nearly as many 1864 No L proofs presented to me. The few I've seen have been from Rick or in auctions.

WaterSport

To help skew the discussion I would also add the MPL is a sought after series coin while the 1864 L is looked at more as a type or variety coin which not only has a smaller collector interest and thus lower demand, value, etc.

WS

Steve

I have used the PCGS, NGC, and ANACS reported numbers as the BASIS for ESTIMATING how many 1909VDB MPL's currently exist. Right now PCGS has graded 104, NGC has graded 49 and ANACS has graded 23 for a total of 176. We all know that many of the ANACS graded coins have been either cracked out or crossed to PCGS or maybe NGC. My cross is one of them, so realistically I suspect that there are fewer than 10 still sitting in ANACS holders and they are still in those holders only because they can't be crossed. I also believe that a number of NGC graded coins have been either cracked out or crossed to PCGS. According to Brian, the NGC PR68RB is the latest one, although as of right now it isn't in the PCGS reported numbers. Let's assume that 15 of the 49 that NGC has graded were either cracked out or crossed to PCGS. Also, of the 104 that PCGS has graded, I believe that at least 10% may have been crackouts or crossovers. Given the above assumptions, lets say the NET slabbed coins are now PCGS 94, NGC 34 and ANACS 10. That is a total of 138.
Now, maybe, just maybe there are another 50 RAW or self slabbed coins out there. What are THEY worth? Who would pay real M O N E Y for a raw 1909VDB MPL? What are the chances that any of those 50 coins has the 3 key diagnostics required to make it a REAL 1909VDB MPL?

All of the above reasoning have led me to believe that fewer than 200 1909VDB MPL's exist today. I know my guess is as good as someone elses. I also know that there are dealer specialists out there like Brian and Andy and collector specialists like Stewart and Doug who may have better knowledge of this than I do, but just using simple logic of supply and demand tells me that this is a very scarce coin that is hoarded by collectors, not dealers and those of us that own one can consider ourselves lucky. JMHO. Steve

BWRC

<< <i>To help skew the discussion I would also add the MPL is a sought after series coin while the 1864 L is looked at more as a type or variety coin which not only has a smaller collector interest and thus lower demand, value, etc.

WS >>



Not to be critical here to the other board members but Rick is posting about the 1864 "NO" L cent. The 1909 VDB MPL is no where near as "rare" as the 1864 with L Bronze PR cent.

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

The "REAL" Mutha is the full red 1864 "L' Proof Indian cent from the Norweb collection which grades Proof 65 Red at NGC. I have been chasing that coin for more than 20 years. To my dismay it resides in a billionaires assets who has a collection of almost 10 Proof 1864 "L" Indian cents.

The 1909 VDB in Proof format is hands down more popular than the 1864 NO "L" indian cent.

How many people collect 1909 VDB Proof Lincoln cents vs. Proof 1864 NO "L" Indian cents


Stewart

renomedphys

<< <i>To my dismay it resides in a billionaires assets >>


Yeah, but is he still a billionaire?

sinin1

I don't think mintage figures are as important as survival rates


and survival in that the owners know it is proof rather than just a nice coin
and who knows how many are circulated to the point of not being able to recognize

WaterSport

Whoops, I read too fast.

WS

EagleEye

The "REAL" Mutha is the full red 1864 "L' Proof Indian cent from the Norweb collection which grades Proof 65 Red at NGC. I have been chasing that coin for more than 20 years

So have I. Bummer.

Yes, we are talking about the No L Proof, not the With L Proof.

I think survival rates are pretty high for all Proofs. There may be 25% to 50% which are not gradable, but unless there was a "spoilage" factor (coins unsold and destroyed/put in circulation or sold and subsequently spent) then most of the mintage should still be available. It is much higher than circulation coins. At least 50% of the true mintage of any one date should exist. I think it is hard to believe that anyone would have spent a VDB Proof being how difficult they were to get. Maybe a few were send

Since the VDB Proof was hard to get from day one, I think most were destroyed so as not to add to the VDB recall hysteria that existed in August 1909. Just a supposition, but perhaps Director Andrews didn't want to have to sell two different versions to the public, so he had most of them destroyed. But, there should be a letter explaining such, right?

sinin1

do you not feel it probable that over the last 100 or 150 years

that these rare coin purchasers knew what they had but when they died, the people that
inherited these coins had no idea what they were?


2x2s have not been around forever have they?


I feel this way because I have gotten proofs from 1936-1942 on eBay
without mention by seller that these were proof

Steve

<< <i>

I think survival rates are pretty high for all Proofs. There may be 25% to 50% which are not gradable, but unless there was a "spoilage" factor (coins unsold and destroyed/put in circulation or sold and subsequently spent) then most of the mintage should still be available. It is much higher than circulation coins. At least 50% of the true mintage of any one date should exist. I think it is hard to believe that anyone would have spent a VDB Proof being how difficult they were to get. Maybe a few were send

Since the VDB Proof was hard to get from day one, I think most were destroyed so as not to add to the VDB recall hysteria that existed in August 1909. Just a supposition >>



Rick, If we go by the current theory that between 400 and 600 were actually sold to collectors, (current editions of the Red Book) and we use your "At least 50% of the true mintage of any one date should exist." we should still have 200 to 300 out there. I really doubt that that many are still out there based on 24 years of population reports. If we want to assume 100 RAW examples are still out there with the 3 key diagnostics will they ever REALLY be "discovered" by knowledgeable collectors? If they haven't been by now, I doubt it. So I say there are less than 200 PR1909VDB MPL's and at least 70% of them are in PCGS, NGC or ANACS holders.
Steve

ArizonaJack

I think this thread should charge tuition. Is a fantastic service to see so many experts commenting on something with knowledge and experience. Kudos to the PCGS boards.