Who are this year's fantasy rookie sleepers and #4/5 starters?

jrboles

I'm drafting 6th out of 12 which means I am getting Utley or Maurer. With $2000 to net this year, I am going to take this seriously. My strategy is to focus on infield and pitching the first 11 rounds. I'll get my outfield then and hope to get Juan Pierre, McCutcheon, Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and/or Franceour. Questionable at best, but I know I should be able to find someone serviceable on waivers once the season starts. However we only get 4 free agent pick ups the whole season so I may be screwed. Speed, runs, and pitching will win it. So says Ozzie.

So let me hear what non-Strasburg rookies to watch. Any thoughts on later round pitching? Brian Matusz? The A's rotation? What about Mat Latos? Your sincere insights would be most welcome.

Your pal
jr

burke23

Avoid strasburg - how many innings will he pitch? He should be great, but we don't know for how long. I don't see how he gets over 120 major league innings - for all the hype, let someone else take him. If I took a rookie it would be Heyward - if he doesn't start in the majors, he will soon...and he should be drafted later as well. In general though, rookies are a waste of a pick and rarely contribute better than a veteran. Guys like Damon always seem to be taken after their true value.

Tough league with 4 fa pickups...good luck.

otwcards

Any Orioles pitching prospect is probably still a year away from having significant impact. As much as everyone talks about Tillman and Matusz, I'm sold on Arrieta and think he will be the first to make an impact along the lines of Tommy Hanson.

Rookie and back of the rotation pitchers I think will be most beneficial and should be available in the last two rounds are the likes of Neftali Perez, Gio Gonzalez (you'll suffer through some Sanchez-like games, however), Oliver Perez (he'll be available late) and Kyle Kendrick.

The other player I'd target in the late middle rounds would be Howie Kendrick. This will be the season that he goes .325-15-85-100-25. They're not Utley numbers, but they'll be enough from the 2B spot to allow you to target Mauer in the first round. And keep an eye on Soto later if you miss out on Mauer. He's dropped 40 pounds and could end up being a top 5 catcher again.

My last player to keep an eye on is Jason Heyward. Not to be a big scorer, but to be sexy trade bait to an owner that wants him because he rips up spring training before coming down to Earth when the real games start.

My breakouts are: Gavin Floyd, Robinson Cano (look for him to go .320-20-110-100-10), Gio Gonzalez, Jonathon Sanchez, Martin Prado, Giovany Soto and Pablo Sandoval (I know, he's already a stud, but I expect him to challenge for the batting title and eclipse 40 HRs with 1B/3B eligibility). While the likes of Stephen Strasberg (may not even make the big leagues until August), Madison Baumgartner and Yovani Gallardo will disappoint.

WeekendHacker

jr,

This is my most sincere insight................................................................................Ya might want to rethink your strategy.........a blank or questionable OF will certainly land you in the bottom half by mid summer and you will never recover. By my accounts 9 of the top 35 offensive players are in the OF. You can get a quality 1B all the way down to the 15th or 16th 1B drafted (B Butler or Berkman) neither of which will hurt you. Hoping (actually, you would be praying) for a quality OF by getting it after pick #130 would be similar to a vampire trying to suck blood at Wrigley during a day game - not wise. With the 6th & 19th pick, you should be seriously considering Braun (if available) and then maybe Ellsbury (the speed you are seeking) or M Holliday (a quality low risk 5 tool player). If you want to pursue pitching, Lincecum will be available with your first pick, then you would have your choice of Halladay, or Felix with your 2nd pick - but that would leave you weak in all offensive catagories. Think offense early - the best way you can get it (regardless of position) and you'll find yourself a whole lot better off. Positional scarcity is hugely over-rated!!!!!!!!!

If you choose to consider sticking with your plan, let me in on your league and I wouldn't mind taking 1st or 2nd place.......Good luck to you my friend.

MBMiller25

I agree with the post above me. You need to scrap your strategy. You need to focus on offensive players 5 of your first 6 rounds. Take your pitcher, but make sure your getting value a that pick. I would look Evan Longoria or Chase Utley with #6 overall pick, (I think Braun will be gone) as those positions are more difficult this year in past years. There is a ton of depth at 1B, so hold off on making that pick until 8-11th rounds, as you will find very serviceable players still available. Think Berkman, Butler, Derek Lee, or maybe even Morneau. Dont take a catcher in the 1st round!

As for sleeper pitchers: Francisco Liriano (tore up Winter League and has his bite back on the slider/pre surgery), Yovanni Gallardo will take the next step this year. Bret Anderson, Tommy Hanson, John Danks and Scott Baker.

mtcards

I only play in an NL only league so my advice is only half.

Colorado Rockies pitchers (Jiminez, de la Rosa, Cook) are all going to be steals in every draft imaginable. We do auction style and I guarantee those three can be had for under $20 total. You will get decent stats across the board and a load of K's. Yes, you will have "those games" which scare others away, but for the whole season, you cant beat the value.

Stay away from Reds pitchers, they have the Rockies effect now and youre going to overpay for what you get.

Bumgarner is a good late round pick, he may not do superwell, but he wont hurt your team, BUT if he does get a rotation spot and does well, you would regret having not taken him.

Theres also some guy named LIncecum, never heard of him, but I hear he's ok

richtree

How many teams ?

What format ?


What are the starting positons required ?


thanks


rt

burke23

I forgot to add - your goal of getting Francouer is not a good one. He stinks.

OckhamsRazor

The Twins will be playing in a new outdoor stadium this year. FWIW, I am erring on the side of caution when evaulating power numbers for Twins players for 2010.

SidePocket

There are always starting pitchers available throughout the year, but with 12 teams you won't find many position players after draft night.

jrboles

12 Teams
$310 dollar budget for salaries
25 roster spots
16 active players every week including 4 SP 2 RP 1 DH and 1 UTILITY (2b/3b/ss)

Equal scoring for .avg, HR, RBI, STEALS, and Runs

WHIP, KO, SV, ERA, Wins- for 10 total scoring categories



With infield being a traditionally weak area, my thought was to nab Utley and Tulowitzki with first two picks. Then go pitching for a couple. My whole thought was I could probably get speed/run/avg guys in later rounds - maybe even victorino or werth.

I will take the advice of the gentlemen who said go offense 5 out of first 6 rounds. I find that reasoning sound. To that end I will get the 5 best offensive players regardless of position.

I agree about the Reds rotation AND Ubaldo was great for me last year. However, I keep looking at Oakland's rotation all the down to 5 as a possibility.

But my prediction for Franceour is .272 21 HR and 93 RBI. Plus 6 steals. You heard it here first.

Your pal
jr